Statistics and Probability Commons^™

International Risk Sharing In Overlapping Generations Models, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We present a solution to the Backus-Smith puzzle that, instead of relying on extreme parameter values or complex modeling assumptions, simply switches the framework from infinitely lived agents to overlapping generations. Young agents face non-diversifiable wage risk that leads to a low degree of risk sharing within each country. Subsequently, international price movements are not sufficient to achieve the high consumption-real exchange rate correlation produced in standard infinitely lived agent DSGE models.

Spatio-Temporal Reconstruction Of Remote Sensing Observations, Kamrul Khan

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The USDA Forest Service aims to use satellite imagery for monitoring and predicting changes in forest conditions over time within the country. We specifically focus on a 230, 400 hectares region in north-central Wisconsin between 2003 - 2012. The auxiliary data collected from the satellite imagery of this region are relatively dense in space and time and can be used to efficiently predict how the forest condition changed over that decade. However, these records have a significant proportion of missing values due to weather conditions and system failures. To fill in these missing values, we build spaciotemporal models based on …

The Power Law Distribution Of Agricultural Land Size, Lauren Chamberlain

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This paper demonstrates that the distribution of county level agricultural land size in the United States is best described by a power-law distribution, a distribution that displays extremely heavy tails. This indicates that the majority of farmland exists in the upper tail. Our analysis indicates that the top 5% of agricultural counties account for about 25% of agricultural land between 1997-2012. The power-law distribution of farm size has important implications for the design of more efficient regional and national agricultural policies as counties close to the mean account for little of the cumulative distribution of total agricultural land. This has …

Risk Factors Associated With Low Birth Weight, Mohammad Zen Rahfiludin, Yudhy Dharmawan

Kesmas

Neonatal deaths are associated with preterm birth complications. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors associated with LBW. This was a crosssectional study held in Bulu Primary Health Care, Temanggung, Central Java, Indonesia. The sample size required for this study was 69 based on the Slovin formula. Data were collected using questionnaires and semi-quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire forms. Data on infant birth weight was taken from midwives’ delivery cohort records. Mid upper arm circumference (MUAC), hemoglobin level, blood pressure, maternal age, parity, nutritional intake, and serum transferrin receptor data were taken from the infant’s mother using a …

Family Perception Towards Health Role In Filariasis Countermeasures Using The Health Belief Model Approach In Aceh Besar District, Said Devi Elvin, Mutia Yusuf, Wirda Hayati, Teuku Alamsyah

Kesmas

Aceh Besar District is a filariasis endemic area. This endemic state is strongly influenced by people’s perception of filariasis countermeasures. This study aimed to determine relation between family perceptions towards health role in filariasis countermeasures using the Health Belief Model. An analytical survey was applied with a cross-sectional study approach. The study population was families at three villages that are Lambaro Bileu, Lambaet, and Cot Preh of Kuta Baro Primary Health Care. This represents 1,113 families with a sample of 92 families that were selected using a proportionate stratified random sampling technique. The study instrument was a questionnaire and data …

Work-Related Skin Diseases Among Workers In The Sewing Section At Pt. X Shoe Company In West Java, Hendra Hendra, Eva Nirwana, Marzuki Isahak

Kesmas

Occupational skin diseases are the most common work-related diseases in many countries. Shoe industry workers are potential to be affected by work-related skin diseases (WRSDs). This study aimed to analyze the risk factors associated with WRSDs among workers in the sewing section at a shoe company in West Java. A total of 477 workers were examined and interviewed using the modified Nordic Occupational Skin Questionnaire-2002/LONG from May 2016 to July 2016. Chi-square test and logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors related to WRSDs. The results showed that 57.7% of the workers suffered from WRSDs. Most of the …

Pizza And Hamburger Consumption To Overweight Among Adolescents In Jambi City, Ummi Kalsum, Sahridayanti Nainggolan, Nawi Ng

Kesmas

Junk food is unhealthy and poor in nutrient quality, and may result in weight gain, obesity, and coronary heart disease, if consumed regularly. The prevalence of overweight in adolescents is 5-10% higher in urban areas. Adolescents undergo lifestyle changes, including in food consumption behavior. This study aimed to determine relation between junk food consumption patterns and overweight in adolescents. This study was conducted based on a cross-sectional design. A total of 137 high school students in Jambi City were involved in this study. Patterns of junk food consumption were assessed using food frequency questionnaires that examined the eating habits of …

Adolescents' Attitude Toward Hiv/Aids Prevention In Yogyakarta, Meysa Tiranda, Nanik Setiyawati, Anita Rahmawati

Kesmas

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is the second leading cause of death in adolescent groups in the world. In Indonesia, the rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adolescents increases annually. Yogyakarta, well-known as the education city, has the highest number of HIV/AIDS cases in the productive age group of 20–29 years old, which means that they have been already infected with HIV since teen age. This study aimed to determine influential factors that affect adolescents' attitude toward HIV/AIDS prevention. The study was an analytic survey research with a cross-sectional design. Stratified random sampling was applied to select a sample size of …

Role Stress, Personality Type, Burnout, And Performance Of Midwives Towards Postnatal Care Program Achievement In Surabaya City, Elita Halimsetiono, Thinni Nurul Rochmah, Dewi Retno Suminar

Kesmas

The coverage of postnatal care program in Surabaya City had declined since 2011–2013 and could not reach the target. This analytic observational study used a cross-sectional design and was conducted during April–May 2015 to analyze the effect of role stress, personality type, and burnout on midwives’ performance towards postnatal care program achievement in Surabaya City. A total sample of 45 midwives was collected from eight primary health care centers in Surabaya City with basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services. Accidental sampling was used for sample selection. This study indicated that most of the midwives were aged 20–30 years and …

Impact Of Budget Increase On Primary Health Care Performance In The Era Of National Health Insurance: Case Study In Buleleng District, Kadek Suranugraha, Ni Made Sri Nopiyani, Pande Putu Januraga

Kesmas

Since 2014, there has been an increase in funds for primary health care (PHC) coming from the National Health Insurance program capitation funds and the Health Operational Assistance Fund. This study aimed to explore the effect of this budget increase on the health care services at PHC. The case study used a qualitative approach and interviews from 19 PHC health workers with the highest and lowest budget. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis and supported by quantitative data. The positive impact of the increasing PHC budget was felt by PHC staff due to the addition of operational equipment and incentives …

Utilization Of Styrofoam As Soundproofing Material With Auditory Frequency Range, Sjahrul Meizar Nasri, Iting Shofwati

Kesmas

The utilization of bricks made of styrofoam is expectedly able to be a soundproof for noise control and as a preventive action to reduce the steadily increasing prevalence of hearing loss. This study aimed to assess the use of sound absorption material in which styrofoam was utilized to reduce the noise exposure. In this study, fine aggregates (sand and styrofoam) were made with a mixture of cement with a composition of 1:4 and 1:6, also the addition of polystyrene waste with a percentage of 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%. Determination of acoustical property of the mixture was done by …

Health Promotion Toward Knowledge And Intention For Early Detection Of Cervical Cancer In Commercial Sex Workers, Desi Rusmiati, Tiurlan Yunetty Silitonga, Warendi Warendi

Kesmas

Cervical cancer is one of the cancer types that become a haunting danger for many women in the world. In Indonesia, the prevalence rate reached 0.8% or an estimated 98,692 patients. Its prevalence increased to 10% in the commercial sex worker group. This study aimed to explain the effect of health promotion on knowledge and intention for early detection of cervical cancer using the inspection of visual acetate method in the commercial sex workers. This study was quantitative with a quasi-experimental type, one group of pretest and posttest design. The population sample included the commercial sex workers at Genteng Subvillage, …

Learning Statistics Through Guided Block Play: A Pre-Curriculum In Statistical Literacy, Robert P. Giebitz

Organization, Information and Learning Sciences ETDs

Learning to use data to investigate the world and make decisions has become an essential skill for all citizens. Play and curiosity are powerful motivators for learning. Inquiry – the process of asking questions and seeking answers – can engage the natural curiosity of young learners and motivate early learning. Recent research in statistics education has shown that children as young as 4 and 5 years old can learn to collect, organize, and interpret data they acquire through observation, counting, and measuring in a process of guided inquiry. Guided block play has been used for over 100 years to enable …

The Impact Of Sample Size In Cross-Classified Multiple Membership Multilevel Models, Hyewon Chung, Jiseon Kim, Ryoungsun Park, Hyeonjeong Jean

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A simulation study was conducted to examine parameter recovery in a cross-classified multiple membership multilevel model. No substantial relative bias was identified for the fixed effect or level-one variance component estimates. However, the level-two cross-classification multiple membership factor variance components were substantially biased with relatively fewer groups.

An Introduction To Psychological Statistics, Garett C. Foster, David Lane, David Scott, Mikki Hebl, Rudy Guerra, Dan Osherson, Heidi Zimmer

Open Educational Resources Collection

This work has been superseded by Introduction to Statistics in the Psychological Sciences available from https://irl.umsl.edu/oer/25/.

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We are constantly bombarded by information, and finding a way to filter that information in an objective way is crucial to surviving this onslaught with your sanity intact. This is what statistics, and logic we use in it, enables us to do. Through the lens of statistics, we learn to find the signal hidden in the noise when it is there and to know when an apparent trend or pattern is really just randomness. The study of statistics involves math and relies …

Using Cyclical Components To Improve The Forecasts Of The Stock Market And Macroeconomic Variables, Kenneth R. Szulczyk, Shibley Sadique

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Economic variables such as stock market indices, interest rates, and national output measures contain cyclical components. Forecasting methods excluding these cyclical components yield inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts. Accordingly, a three-stage procedure is developed to estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) with cyclical components. A Monte Carlo simulation shows the procedure estimates the parameters accurately. Subsequently, a VAR with cyclical components improves the root-mean-square error of out-of-sample forecasts by 50% for a stock market model with macroeconomic variables.

Can Maternity Benefits Have Long-Term Effects On Childbearing? Evidence From Soviet Russia, Olga Malkova

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper quantifies the effects of Russia’s 1981 expansion in maternity benefits on completed childbearing. The program provided one year of partially paid parental leave and a small cash transfer upon a child’s birth. I exploit the program’s two-stage implementation and find evidence that women had more children as a result of the program. Fertility rates rose immediately by 8.2% over twelve months. The increase in fertility rates not only persisted for the ten-year duration of the program, but it reflected large increases in higher-order births to older women who already had children before the program started.

Nonlinearities In The Real Exchange Rates: New Evidence From Developed And Developing Countries, Yamin S. Ahmad, Ming Chien Lo, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson (1992) and the Teräsvirta (1994) test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we examine the modification proposed by Ahmad, Lo and Mykhaylova (2013; Journal of International Economics) to show that the modified nonlinearity test performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange …

Effects Of The Affordable Care Act On Health Care Access And Self-Assessed Health After 3 Years, Charles J. Courtemanche, James Marton, Benjamin Ukert, Aaron Yelowitz, Daniela Zapata

Economics Faculty Publications

Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, we examine the causal impact of the Affordable Care Act on health-related outcomes after 3 years. We estimate difference-in-difference-in-differences models that exploit variation in treatment intensity from 2 sources: (1) local area prereform uninsured rates from 2013 and (2) state participation in the Medicaid expansion. Including the third postreform year leads to 2 important insights. First, gains in health insurance coverage and access to care from the policy continued to increase in the third year. Second, an improvement in the probability of reporting excellent health emerged in the third year, with …

Comparison Of Multiple Imputation Methods For Categorical Survey Items With High Missing Rates: Application To The Family Life, Activity, Sun, Health And Eating (Flashe) Study, Benmei Liu, Erin Hennessy, April Oh, Laura A. Dwyer, Linda Nebeling

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Two multiple imputation methods, the Sequential Regression Multivariate Imputation Algorithm and the Cox-Lannacchione Weighted Sequential Hotdeck, were examined and compared to impute highly missing categorical variables from the Family Life, Activity, Sun, Health and Eating (FLASHE) study. This paper describes the imputation approaches and results from the study.

Dealing With Sensitive Quantitative Variables: A Comparison Of Sampling Designs For The Procedure Of Gupta And Thornton, Carlos Narciso Bouza Herrera, Prayas Sharma

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The use of randomized response procedures allows diminishing the number of non-responses and increasing the accuracy of the responses. A new sampling strategy is developed where the reports are scrambled using the procedure of Gupta and Thornton. The estimator of the mean as well as the errors are developed for the Rao-Hartley-Cochran and Ranked Sets Sampling designs. The proposals are compared with the original model based on the use of simple random sampling.

Bayesian And Semi-Bayesian Estimation Of The Parameters Of Generalized Inverse Weibull Distribution, Kamaljit Kaur, Kalpana K. Mahajan, Sangeeta Arora

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Bayesian and semi-Bayesian estimators of parameters of the generalized inverse Weibull distribution are obtained using Jeffreys’ prior and informative prior under specific assumptions of loss function. Using simulation, the relative efficiency of the proposed estimators is obtained under different set-ups. A real life example is also given.

Factors Influencing Immunisation Schedule Adherence And Completion At The Regional Level In The Philippines, Paolo Miguel Manalang Vicerra

Kesmas

Penyebab utama kematian bayi sebagian besar dapat dicegah dan terdapat alasan baik dari sisi suplai maupun permintaan layanan kesehatan hal itu dapat terus berlangsung. Penelitian ini bertujuan memastikan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi perilaku layanan kesehatan preventif imunisasi bayi di Filipina yang tepat waktu karena tingkat kelengkapan, atau kepatuhan, telah stabil dalam beberapa dekade terakhir. Metode yang digunakan adalah pembuatan model statistik di tingkat subnasional. Sampel berisi bayi yang lahir sebelum Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Nasional Filipina tahun 2013 untuk menentukan kepatuhan yang tepat terhadap jadwal imunisasi yang dimandatkan oleh pemerintah. Hal ini melibatkan penggabungan 17 wilayah administratif negara ke tiga wilayah …

Husband’S Support For Their Wives In Antenatal Care Visit, Awalia Hanifah, Hadi Pratomo, Giang Hoang

Kesmas

Di wilayah Puskesmas Cimanggis, Kota Depok, cakupan kunjungan antenatal pertama (K1) dan kunjungan ke-4 (K4) sebesar 99,4% (2013) dan 91% (2014). Dukungan suami ibu hamil merupakan salah satu faktor yang berperan penting dalam kunjungan antenatal pada ibu hamil. Penelitian ini bertujuan menilai faktor predisposisi, pemungkin dan penguat dari dukungan suami terhadap ANC istrinya dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan desain Rapid Assessment Procedure. Lima suami dan istrinya yang sedang hamil dipilih sebagai informan serta dua bidan puskesmas sebagai informan kunci. Analisis data menggunakan matriks data kualitatif dan teknik analisis tematik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor predisposisi, pemungkin dan penguat dari suami …

Influential Host Factors To The Incidence Of Hiv/Aids In Key Populations In Pati District, Dwi Murtono, Puguh Riyanto, Zahroh Shaluhiyah

Kesmas

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) dan Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) merupakan penyakit berbahaya di dunia yang salah satu metode penularannya adalah melalui hubungan seksual. Penelitian ini bertujuan menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap kejadian HIV/AIDS pada populasi kunci. Penelitian dilakukan dari bulan Maret sampai September 2016. Penelitian analitik observasional dengan rancangan kasus kontrol pada populasi kunci di Kabupaten Pati. Kasus sebanyak 53 pasien positif HIV/AIDS, sedangkan kontrol sebanyak 53 pasien negative HIV/AIDS.Pengambilan sampel menggunakan teknik consecutive sampling. Data diperoleh dari riwayat medis dan wawancara kuesioner. Penelitian ini menggunakan uji kai kuadrat pada analisis bivariat dan regresi logistik ganda pada analisis multivariat. …

Unsafe Behavior Of Workers In Rotary Lathe Section In One Of The Plywood Industries In East Kalimantan, Iwan Muhamad Ramdan, Dyyka Indah Wijayanti

Kesmas

Kecelakaan kerja dan penyakit akibat kerja masih menjadi masalah kesehatan dunia, dua faktor utama penyebabnya adalah perilaku dan kondisi lingkungan kerja yang tidak aman. Penelitian sebelumnya membuktikan penyebab utamanya adalah faktor perilaku yang tidak aman. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang berhubungan dengan perilaku tidak aman dalam bekerja pada tenaga kerja di PT IAW dan menganalisis faktor yang paling berpengaruh. Penelitian potong lintang dilakukan pada bulan Juli sampai Agustus 2016 terhadap 104 sampel penelitian. Variabel bebas terdiri dari persepsi, komunikasi, pengawasan, ketersediaan alat pelindung diri (APD), pelatihan dan suhu lingkungan kerja. Variabel terikat adalah perilaku tidak aman. Analisis data menggunakan …

Direct Experience With Cervical Cancer Patient, Husband Support, And Self-Perception As Determinant Factors Of Women’S Desire To Take Via Screening Test, Nur Anisah Rahmawati, Linda Dewanti

Kesmas

Kanker serviks menyebabkan 10.3% kematian pada perempuan di Indonesia. Inspeksi visual asam asetat (IVA) telah digunakan untuk program skrining sejak tahun 2014 tetapi hanya 2,45 % perempuan yang melakukan pemeriksaan pada tahun 2015. Di tempat penelitian, cakupan skrining metode IVA kurang dari 1%. Penelitian sebelumnya menyebutkan faktor psikososial sebagai satu faktor penting, tetapi sedikit penelitian yang menganalisis peran dukungan suami dan pengalaman langsung dengan penderita kanker serviks. Penelitian ini bertujuan mempelajari hubungan antara pengalaman langsung dengan penderita kanker serviks, dukungan suami, persepsi diri dan keinginan perempuan melakukan skrining IVA. Penelitian potong lintang dilakukan secara acak pada perempuan berusia 25-55 tahun …

Web-Based Application To Support Physical Fitness Information Of Elderly People, Yudhy Dharmawan, Suroto Suroto, Priguna Septia Putra

Kesmas

Penduduk lanjut usia (lansia) semakin banyak seiring meningkatnya usia harapan hidup. Banyak upaya yang harus dilakukan untuk mencegah kesakitan di lansia, salah satunya dari aspek preventif dengan menjaga kebugaran para lansia. Untuk memonitor status kebugaran lansia, maka diperlukan aplikasi pemantauan kebugaran jasmani berbasis teknologi web karena tidak ada sistem yang merekam data kebugaran para lansia. Aplikasi ini ditujukan untuk merekam data kebugaran jasmani para lansia untuk merekomendasikan gym yang sesuai berdasarkan kondisi kesehatan yang dapat diakses di mana saja. Aplikasi ini dibuat dengan bahasa pemrograman PHP dan MYSQL sebagai pengolahan basis data yang dilengkapi dengan grafik untuk memantau kebugaran jasmaninya. …

The Implementation Of Documentation By Midwives In Pekanbaru, Wan Anita

Kesmas

Dokumentasi kebidanan adalah suatu bukti pencatatan dan pelaporan yang dimiliki oleh bidan dalam melakukan catatan perawatan yang berguna untuk kepentingan pasien, bidan, dan tim kesehatan. Pendokumentasian dapat diterapkan dengan metode Subjektif, Objektif, Analisa dan Perencanaan (SOAP). Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berhubungan dengan pelaksanaan dokumentasi SOAP oleh bidan di Kota Pekanbaru tahun 2016. Penelitian bersifat kuantitatif analitik observasional dengan desain penelitian potong lintang analitik. Sampel penelitian adalah seluruh populasi bidan yang praktik mandiri atau di rumah bersalin di Kota Pekanbaru dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 191 bidan yang diambil dengan prosedur systematic random sampling. Data dikumpulkan melalui wawancara langsung dengan …

Adolescent’S Knowledge And Skill To Refuse Drugs, Lucky Herawati, Johan Arief Budiman, Haryono Haryono

Kesmas

Berbagai upaya telah dilakukan untuk mencegah remaja dari penggunaan narkoba, kendatipun evaluasi pengetahuan dan keterampilan remaja menolak narkoba belum pernah dilakukan. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada 300 remaja, siswa kelas 7 atau setara usia 12-15 tahun di dua kota di Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Penelitian analitik bertujuan mengetahui gambaran pengetahuan, keterampilan remaja menolak narkoba, dan hubungan keduanya dengan karakteristik remaja. Variabel yang diteliti adalah pengetahuan remaja tentang narkoba, keterampilan menolak narkoba, dan karakteristik remaja, yang dikumpulkan dengan menggunakan kuesioner (self-reported questionnaire). Data dianalisis dengan uji korelasi Pearson dan Spearman rho, dengan tingkat signifikansi 95 persen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata nilai …