Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Efficient Class Of Estimators For Finite Population Mean Using Auxiliary Information In Two-Occasion Successive Sampling, G. N. Singh, Mohd Khalid

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In the case of sampling on two occasions, a class of estimators is considered which uses information on the first occasion as well as the second occasion in order to estimate the population means on the current (second) occasion. The usefulness of auxiliary information in enhancing the efficiency of this estimation is examined through the class of proposed estimators. Some properties of the class of estimators and a strategy of optimum replacement are discussed. The proposed class of estimators were empirically compared with the sample mean estimator in the case of no matching. The established optimum estimator, which is a …

Newsworthy Migrants: Sentiment And Text Analysis Of Dutch Newspapers, Nicholas J. Schmitz

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Understanding how a migrant population is viewed and displayed by the host country has been a struggle for a long period of time for anyone studying migration. Traditional methods of collecting information were tedious, time intensive and expensive. However, Big data has been providing unique solutions to gaps in information in many different fields across the world. Media plays an important part in developing and assessing the public opinion on a topic. With the availability of a large number of online articles from historical time periods, it is possible to use quantitative analysis, such as text analytics, to can see …

Latent Choice Models To Account For Misclassification Errors In Discrete Transportation Data, Lacramioara Elena Balan

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

One of the most fundamental tasks when it comes to analyzing data using statistical methods is to understand the relationship between the explanatory variables and the outcome. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. In this dissertation, we define ‘misclassification,’ as a response that is reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is registered as a one when it should have the value zero. Misclassification can easily happen in any data; for example, in an interview setting where the respondent misunderstands the question or the interviewer checks the wrong box. …

Jmasm 51: Bayesian Reliability Analysis Of Binomial Model – Application To Success/Failure Data, M. Tanwir Akhtar, Athar Ali Khan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Reliability data are generated in the form of success/failure. An attempt was made to model such type of data using binomial distribution in the Bayesian paradigm. For fitting the Bayesian model both analytic and simulation techniques are used. Laplace approximation was implemented for approximating posterior densities of the model parameters. Parallel simulation tools were implemented with an extensive use of R and JAGS. R and JAGS code are developed and provided. Real data sets are used for the purpose of illustration.

A Random Forests Approach To Assess Determinants Of Central Bank Independence, Maddalena Cavicchioli, Angeliki Papana, Ariadni Papana Dagiasis, Barbara Pistoresi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A non-parametric efficient statistical method, Random Forests, is implemented for the selection of the determinants of Central Bank Independence (CBI) among a large database of economic, political, and institutional variables for OECD countries. It permits ranking all the determinants based on their importance in respect to the CBI and does not impose a priori assumptions on potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Collinearity issues are resolved, because correlated variables can be simultaneously considered.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation For The Generalized Pareto Distribution And Goodness-Of-Fit Test With Censored Data, Minh H. Pham, Chris Tsokos, Bong-Jin Choi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is a flexible parametric model commonly used in financial modeling. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the GPD was proposed by Grimshaw (1993). Maximum likelihood estimation of the GPD for censored data is developed, and a goodness-of-fit test is constructed to verify an MLE algorithm in R and to support the model-validation step. The algorithms were composed in R. Grimshaw’s algorithm outperforms functions available in the R package ‘gPdtest’. A simulation study showed the MLE method for censored data and the goodness-of-fit test are both reliable.

Vulnerability Of Industrial Facilities In The Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor To Relative Sea Level Rise And Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge, Joseph Blake Harris

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) and tropical cyclone-induced storm surge are major threats to the Lower Mississippi River Industrial Corridor (LMRIC) which has approximately 120 industrial complexes located within the corridor. Spatial interpolation methods were applied to the 2004 National Oceanic and Atmospheric published Technical Report #50 subsidence dataset and cross-validation techniques were used to determine the accuracy of each method. Digital elevation models (DEMs) were created for the years 2025, 2050, and 2075, based on these predictive surface of subsidence rates. Future DEMs were utilized to model RSLR and determine the extent of storm surge on the LMRIC by …

Bayesian Approximation Techniques For Scale Parameter Of Laplace Distribution, Uzma Jan, S. P. Ahmad

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Bayesian estimation of the scale parameter of a Laplace Distribution is obtained using two approximation techniques, like Normal approximation and Tierney and Kadane (T-K) approximation, under different informative priors.

Can One Test Fit All? Responses To The Article “Striving For Simple But Effective Advice For Comparing The Central Tendency Of Two Populations” (Ruxton & Neuhäuser, 2018), Diep Nguyen, Eun Sook Kim, Yi-Hsin Chen

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Responses to suggestions made by Ruxton & Neuhäuser (2018) regarding Nguyen et al. (2016) are given.

On The Conditional And Unconditional Type I Error Rates And Power Of Tests In Linear Models With Heteroscedastic Errors, Patrick J. Rosopa, Alice M. Brawley, Theresa P. Atkinson, Stephen A. Robertson

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Preliminary tests for homoscedasticity may be unnecessary in general linear models. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, results suggest that when testing for differences between independent slopes, the unconditional use of weighted least squares regression and HC4 regression performed the best across a wide range of conditions.

Φ-Divergence Loss-Based Artificial Neural Network, R. L. Salamwade, D. M. Sakate, S. K. Mathur

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) can fit non-linear functions and recognize patterns better than several standard techniques. Performance of ANNs is measured by using loss functions. Phi-divergence estimator is generalization of maximum likelihood estimator and it possesses all its properties. A neural network is proposed which is trained using phi-divergence loss.

Robust Ancova, Curvature, And The Curse Of Dimensionality, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

There is a substantial collection of robust analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) methods that effectively deals with non-normality, unequal population slope parameters, outliers, and heteroscedasticity. Some are based on the usual linear model and others are based on smoothers (nonparametric regression estimators). However, extant results are limited to one or two covariates. A minor goal here is to extend a recently-proposed method, based on the usual linear model, to situations where there are up to six covariates. The usual linear model might provide a poor approximation of the true regression surface. The main goal is to suggest a method, based on …

A Strategy For Using Bias And Rmse As Outcomes In Monte Carlo Studies In Statistics, Michael Harwell

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

To help ensure important patterns of bias and accuracy are detected in Monte Carlo studies in statistics this paper proposes conditioning bias and root mean square error (RMSE) measures on estimated Type I and Type II error rates. A small Monte Carlo study is used to illustrate this argument.

A Robust Nonparametric Measure Of Effect Size Based On An Analog Of Cohen's D, Plus Inferences About The Median Of The Typical Difference, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The paper describes a nonparametric analog of Cohen's d, Q. It is established that a confidence interval for Q can be computed via a method for computing a confidence interval for the median of D = X₁ − X₂, which in turn is related to making inferences about P(X₁ < X₂).

Should We Give Up On Causality?, Tom Knapp

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

No abstract provided.

Striving For Simple But Effective Advice For Comparing The Central Tendency Of Two Populations, Graeme Ruxton, Markus Neuhäuser

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Nguyen et al. (2016) offered advice to researchers in the commonly-encountered situation where they are interested in testing for a difference in central tendency between two populations. Their data and the available literature support very simple advice that strikes the best balance between ease of implementation, power and reliability. Specifically, apply Satterthwaite’s test, with preliminary ranking of the data if a strong deviation from normality is expected, or is suggested by visual inspection of the data. This simple guideline will serve well except when dealing with small samples of discrete data, when more sophisticated treatment may be required.

Logistic Regression: An Inferential Method For Identifying The Best Predictors, Rand Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

When dealing with a logistic regression model, there is a simple method for estimating the strength of the association between the j^th covariate and the dependent variable when all covariates are entered into the model. There is the issue of determining whether the j^th independent variable has a stronger or weaker association than the k^th independent variable. This note describes a method for dealing with this issue that was found to perform reasonably well in simulations.

Recent Efforts To Elucidate The Scientific Validity Of Animal-Based Drug Tests By The Pharmaceutical Industry, Pro-Testing Lobby Groups, And Animal Welfare Organisations, Jarrod Bailey

Validation of Animal Experimentation Collection

Background: Even after several decades of human drug development, there remains an absence of published, substantial, comprehensive data to validate the use of animals in preclinical drug testing, and to point to their predictive nature with regard to human safety/toxicity and efficacy. Two recent papers, authored by pharmaceutical industry scientists, added to the few substantive publications that exist. In this brief article, we discuss both these papers, as well as our own series of three papers on the subject, and also various views and criticisms of lobby groups that advocate the animal testing of new drugs.

Main text: We argue …

Influence Of Decentralization And Type Of Patient On Loss To Follow-Up Among Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients In Indonesia From 2014 To 2015, Noerfitri Noerfitri, R. Sutiawan, Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono, Pratiwi Ayuningtyas Hartono

Kesmas

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) patients have a greater risk of loss to follow-up (LTFU) than drug-sensitive TB patients, due to their longer treatment duration. This study aimed to determine the influence of decentralization and patient type on LTFU among multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) patients in Indonesia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted at all MDR-TB treatment healthcare facilities in Indonesia from 014 to 2015. Using total sampling technique, 961 patients were examined and sampled. Of these patients, 86.03% were decentralized. Patients were classified into types as follows: 35.17% were “relapse” patients, 5.52% were “new,” 13.94% were classified as “after LTFU” patients, 23.10% …

Knowledge And Practice In Household Waste Management, Agnes Fitria Widiyanto, Suratman Suratman, Nisrina Alifah, Tri Murniati, Oktafiani Catur Pratiwi

Kesmas

Declining environmental quality is one of population caused by household consumption behavior. Some of the highest contaminant contributions are domestic waste, waste, and company waste. Waste contamination will lead to dead fish, decreased water quality and disease transmission. Community approach can be done to solve the waste problem, especially at the household level. This study uses quantitative methods to analyze the effect of intervention and waste management training on changes in household waste management knowledge and practices. This type of research uses quasi experiment with one group of pre and post test design. The results showed that there was an …

Exclusive Breastfeeding And Decrease Of Upper Respiratory Infection Incidence Among Infants Aged 6-12 Months In Kampar District, Riau Province, Musfardi Rustam, Renti Mahkota, Nasrin Kodim

Kesmas

Upper Respiratory Infection (URI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality of infants and toddlers in developing countries. The high infant morbidity and mortality rates in Indonesia are associated with the low exclusive breastfeeding ability. Breast milk is a natural drink for newborns in the first month of life that is beneficial not only for the babies, but also for mothers. The aim of study was to determine exclusive breastfeeding and decrease in incidence of URI among infants aged 6-12 months. This study was conducted by using case control design. Samples were taken by using cluster random sampling. Subject …

The Consumption Of Fresh Vegetables From Street Food And Sanitation Of Street Stalls At Four Locations In Bogor City, Donna Fujie Rahaditha Utami, Winiati P. Rahayu, Lilis Nuraida

Kesmas

The consumption of fresh vegetables at the stalls needs serious attention. This research aimed to estimate the exposure probability due to fresh vegetables consumption of street food consumers, to measure sanitation level of street stalls that serving fresh vegetables, and to recommend a mentoring program for the stalls at four locations in Bogor City. This research was conducted at 16 stalls located at four locations in Bogor City. The number of respondents surveyed was 293 people and determined by stratified sampling method. Food frequency questionnaire was used as a tool in the survey. The survey showed that men consumed more …

Relationship Model For Occupational Safety And Health Climate To Prevent Needlestick Injuries For Nurses, Ketut Ima Ismara, Adi Heru Husodo, Yayi Suryo Prabandari, Widodo Hariyono

Kesmas

The risk of accidents and disease transmission when working at hospitals is quite high, especially in Indonesia. This study aimed to analyze the relationship model between the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) climate and behavior intention in OSH performance to prevent needlestick injuries (NSI) based on a theory of planned behavior. A mixed approach using qualitative and quantitative methods was applied. Data were obtained from Structural Equation Model questionnaires, observation, and documentation, and interviews were analyzed qualitatively. The population was 1,042 nurses at Dr. Sardjito General Hospital in Yogyakarta. The sample consisted of 289 respondents determined by purposive random sampling …

Effect Of Condom Utilization On Sexuall Transmitted Infection Among Female Sex Workers, In Tulungagung District, East Java, Indonesia, Ainun Hanifah, Ari Natalia Probandari, Eti Poncorini Pamungkasari

Kesmas

One effective strategy for preventing sexually transmitted infection (STI) incidence and providing protection for female sex workers (FSWs) from their sexual partners is correct and consistent condom use behavior. This study examined the effect of condom use on STI among FSWs in Tulungagung District, East Java. This analytic and observational study using a cohort prospective design was conducted at Ngujang ex- prostitution area and Gunung Bolo prostitution area, Tulungagung District, from November to January 2017. The total sample selected was 90 FSWs. Data was collected through a set of questionnaires and tracking condom use in a diary. Data were analyzed …

Perception Of People Living With Hiv/Aids On Social Stigma Of Hiv/Aids In Sukoharjo District, Titik Haryanti, Wartini Wartini

Kesmas

The stigma of wrong society about HIV / AIDS is one of the obstacles to prevention and control of HIV / AIDS in Sukoharjo District. This study aims to determine the relationship of characteristics, causal factors and duration of HIV / AIDS with the perception of people living with HIV to the stigma of society about HIV / AIDS in Sukoharjo District. The research used is analytical descriptive with cross sectional approach. The population is all people with HIV / AIDS until April 2016 amounted to 256 with a sample of 156 people with sampling technique quota sampling. Bivariate analysis …

Prediction Models For Descreasing Visual Acuity In Wig Makers, Nur Ulfah, Siti Harwanti, Ngadiman Ngadiman

Kesmas

One of the occupational diseases that can arise for workers with high accuracy is a decrease in their visual acuity. Therefore, it is necessary to study the risk factors of decreasing visual acuity in workers with high accuracy, such as in wig makers. This study aimed to examine the correlation between age, working period, lighting intensity, fatigue, and nutritional status with visual acuity, and to observe the main risk factors that can be used as a reference for predicting decreasing visual acuity. This study was an observational study that used a cross-sectional design. The population number for this study was …

Sustainable Energy Governance In South Tyrol (Italy): A Probabilistic Bipartite Network Model, Jessica Belest, Laura Secco, Elena Pisani, Alberto Caimo

Articles

At the national scale, almost all of the European countries have already achieved energy transition targets, while at the regional and local scales, there is still some potential to further push sustainable energy transitions. Regions and localities have the support of political, social, and economic actors who make decisions for meeting existing social, environmental and economic needs recognising local specificities.

These actors compose the sustainable energy governance that is fundamental to effectively plan and manage energy resources. In collaborative relationships, these actors share, save, and protect several kinds of resources, thereby making energy transitions deeper and more effective.

This research …

Indonesia And Central Asia: Romanticizing Authoritarian Regime In The Past?, Mochamad Aviandy

International Review of Humanities Studies

Even though countries in Central Asia and Indonesia seem to be unrelated, both actually have experienced authoritarian regime and implemented decentralization system after that regime collapsed. Nevertheless, decentralization along with non-authoritarian regime does not automatically bring the desired good result since a new authoritarian regime based on decentralization appears. As a result, the citizens long for the welfare of the centralism system. Before talking further about the comparison of both regions, it is better to have a good understanding of each region.

Political Profiling Using Feature Engineering And Nlp, Chiranjeevi Mallavarapu, Ramya Mandava, Sabitri Kc, Ginger M. Holt

SMU Data Science Review

Public surveys are predominantly used when forecasting election outcomes. While the approach has had significant successes, the surveys have had their failures as well, especially when it comes to accuracy and reliability. As a result, it becomes challenging for political parties to spend their campaign budgets in a manner that facilitates the growth of a favorable and verifiable public opinion. Consequently, it is critical that a more accurate methodology to predict election outcome is developed. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the impact of utilizing dynamic public data on predicting the outcome of elections. Our model yielded a …

Estimation Of Multivariate Asset Models With Jumps, Angela Loregian, Laura Ballotta, Gianluca Gianluca Fusai, Marcos Fabricio Perez

Business Faculty Publications

We propose a consistent and computationally efficient two-step methodology for the estimation of multidimensional non-Gaussian asset models built using Levy processes. The proposed framework allows for dependence between assets and different tail behaviors and jump structures for each asset. Our procedure can be applied to portfolios with a large number of assets as it is immune to estimation dimensionality problems. Simulations show good finite sample properties and significant efficiency gains. This method is especially relevant for risk management purposes such as, for example, the computation of portfolio Value at Risk and intra-horizon Value at Risk, as we show in detail …