Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Physical And Mental Disabilities Among The Gender-Diverse Population Using The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Brfss (2017–2019): A Propensity-Matched Analysis, Jennifer R. Pharr, Kavita Batra

Environmental & Global Health Faculty Research

This propensity-matched analysis utilized the publicly available Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2017–2019) data to compare the burden of disabilities among transgender/non-binary (TGNB) and cisgender groups. The groups were matched (1:1 ratio) on demographic variables using Nearest Neighborhood Matching. Categorical variables were compared among groups using a Chi-square analysis to test differences in the proportions. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was fit to predict the likelihood of the physical and mental disabilities among the TGNB group compared with the cisgender group while controlling for healthcare access factors, income, and employment. Survey weights were included in the model to account for the …

Anti-Vaxxers: Parents Fighting Science, Katie West

Symposium of Student Scholars

Immunizing children helps protect the health of our community, especially those people who cannot be immunized. Yet, since 1996 after a study was released that linked autism to vaccinations, there has been a trend of parents refusing to vaccinate their children. What are the demographics of the parents who believe their children are better off without vaccines? By knowing where these parents live and what decisions they make for their children’s education, counties and medical professionals can provide education and address their concerns.

My research involves data on 116,141 kindergarten classes from 2000-2015 in California. The two vaccine exemption options …

Why Does An Ex-Offender Reoffend?, Jacob Rybak

Symposium of Student Scholars

What leads to an offender to go back to prison? Iowa has collected data tracking recidivism to evaluate the effectiveness of its programs for released offenders. This data set includes the following for all of the offenders: age groups, type of release (parole vs being discharged at the end of their sentence), race, sex, year of release, supervising district, original offense, and whether they recidivated. For the offenders who return to prison, the data set includes measures on days to return, type of recidivism (technicality or new crime), and what the specific offense was that caused their return.

In the …

On The Front Lines Of Fire: How Do We Save Their Lives?, Cathrine Jatta

Symposium of Student Scholars

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) reports that the United States depends on about 1.1 million firefighters to protect its citizens and property from fire. NIOSH adds that approximately 336,000 are career firefighters; 812,000 are volunteers; and 80 to 100 die in the line of duty each year. NIOSH investigates each fatality individually for the cause and prevention. In contrast, my research will look at a complete dataset of 2005 firefighter fatalities and see if any of the following variables may predict firefighter death: age, cause of death, property type, type of duty (e.g. on-duty, training), and …

Eradicating Zebra Mussels: What Works?, Elijah Davies

Symposium of Student Scholars

The invasion of U.S lakes and rivers by the invasive species of zebra mussels called Dreissena polymorpha has caused catastrophic harm to the local ecosystem by reproducing and outcompeting native mussel species as well as harm to pipes leading into water sources by binding to surfaces and reproducing to the point that the mussels clog pipes. In addition, recreation areas must be closed due to the sharp shells making areas unusable. In the past, research has focused on individual molluscicides and their eradication of zebra mussels, as well as their effect on native flora and fauna. My research will contrast …

Bayesian Sensitivity-Specificity And Roc Analysis For Finding Key Drivers, Stan Lipovetsky, Michael W. Conklin

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Finding key drivers in regression modeling via Bayesian Sensitivity-Specificity and Receiver Operating Characteristic is suggested, and clearly interpretable results are obtained. Numerical comparisons with other techniques show that this methodology can be useful in practical statistical modeling and analysis helping to researchers and managers in making meaningful decisions.

Accelerating The Provision Of Safe Water Supply In Urban And Rural Areas Of Indonesia, Sumengen Sutomo, Salord Sagala, Bebi Sutomo, Sri Winarti, Gelant Sanjaya

Kesmas

Over the past 100 years, the provision of a safe water supply to drink in Indonesia has been slowly progressed with low coverage. The majority of the population does not have access to safe water. Morbidity and mortality of water-related diseases, including diarrhea, are very high. The provision of safe water is not a technological issue but good water management that comprises content, institutional, and communication layer. This paper provided information for strategic and operational decisions to accelerate the provision of safe water services in urban and rural areas. Benchmarking good water management with the characteristics of the water supply …

Association Between Self-Reported Fatigue And Sarcopenia Measures Among Elderly In Selangor, Malaysia, Maria Justine, Aliff Latir, Nadhirah Noor, Angelbeth Joanny, Izzaty Iskandar, Maisarah Sakinah Amirul Faizi, Dzulhelmi Edinan

Kesmas

The association between fatigue and sarcopenia is not well understood, therefore, this study aimed to compare the sarcopenia measures among elderly with mild and severe fatigue and to determine whether fatigue severity is associated with sarcopenia measures. This was a cross-sectional study conducted on201 elderly (age = 68.45±6.30 years). The elderly was classified into either mild or severe fatigue based on the Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS), meanwhile, sarcopenia measures include SARC-F score, muscle mass (ASM/height2), calf circumference (CC), upper (handgrip) and lower limb muscle strength, as well as physical performance (gait speed). Data were analyzed using independent t-tests and logistic …

Sounding The Alarm: Down-Ballot Setback For The Democrats In 2020, Yaakov Huba

The Yale Undergraduate Research Journal

The 2020 general election turned out more American voters than any other election, its monumental stakes commanding the attention of the world. While the focus in the race’s aftermath has primarily been the top of the ticket, the rebuke of President Trump’s time in office, the equally important down-ballot races have been largely passed over. Many major political analysts like the Cook Political Report predicted that Democrats would expand their House majority by 5-10 seats. Yet, the Democratic Party ended up losing 10 seats1. During the certification of election results, I collected data on incumbents in the US House of …

Performance Of The Beta-Binomial Model For Clustered Binary Responses: Comparison With Generalized Estimating Equations, Seongah Im

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This study examined performance of the beta-binomial model in comparison with GEE using clustered binary responses resulting in non-normal outcomes. Monte Carlo simulations were performed under varying intracluster correlations and sample sizes. The results showed that the beta-binomial model performed better for small sample, while GEE performed well under large sample.

Effect Sizes And Intra-Cluster Correlation Coefficients Measured From The Green Dot High School Study For Guiding Sample Size Calculations When Designing Future Violence Prevention Cluster Randomized Trials In School Settings, Md. Tofial Azam, Heather M. Bush, Ann L. Coker, Philip M. Westgate

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Purpose: Cluster randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) are popular in school-based research designs where schools are randomized to different trial arms. To help guide future study planning, we provide information on anticipated effect sizes and intra-cluster correlation coefficients (ICCs), as well as school sizes, for dating violence (DV) and interpersonal violence outcomes based on data from a cRCT which evaluated the bystander-based violence intervention ‘Green Dot’.

Methods: We utilized data from 25 schools from the Green Dot High School study. Effect size and ICC values corresponding to dating and interpersonal violence outcomes are obtained from linear mixed effect models. We …

An Introduction To Calling Bullshit: Learning To Think Outside The Black Box, Jevin D. West, Carl T. Bergstrom

Numeracy

Bergstrom, Carl T. and Jevin D. West. 2020. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. (New York: Random House) 336 pp. ISBN 978-0525509202.

While statistical methods receive greater attention, the art of critically evaluating information in everyday life more commonly depends on thinking outside the black box of the algorithm. In this piece we introduce readers to our book and associated online teaching materials—for readers who want to more capably call “bullshit” or to teach their students to do the same.

Glivenko-Cantelli Theorems For Integrated Functionals Of Stochastic Processes, Jia Li, Congshan Zhang, Yunxiao Liu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We prove a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for integrated functionals of latent continuous-time stochastic processes. Based on a bracketing condition via random brackets, the theorem establishes the uniform convergence of a sequence of empirical occupation measures towards the occupation measure induced by underlying processes over large classes of test functions, including indicator functions, bounded monotone functions, Lipschitz-in-parameter functions, and Hölder classes as special cases. The general Glivenko-Cantelli theorem is then applied in more concrete high-frequency statistical settings to establish uniform convergence results for general integrated functionals of the volatility of efficient price and local moments of microstructure noise.

Multiple Baseline Interrupted Time Series: Describing Changes In New Mexico Medicaid Behavioral Health Home Patients’ Care, Jessica Reno

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In 2016, the CareLink New Mexico behavioral health homes program began enrolling Medicaid recipients with the goal of increasing care coordination, improving access to services, and decreasing long-term costs of care for adults with serious mental illness (SMI) and children with severe emotional disturbance (SED). To evaluate these aims, a retrospective interrupted time series study using Medicaid claims data was designed. First, a comparable subset of non-enrolled individuals was selected from the pool of Medicaid recipients with SMI or SED using propensity score matching. Then, segmented regression was applied to three outcomes: total Medicaid charges, number of outpatient behavioral health …

Be Careful! That Is Probably Bullshit! Review Of Calling Bullshit: The Art Of Skepticism In A Data-Driven World By Carl T. Bergstrom And Jevin D. West, James B. Schreiber

Numeracy

Bergstrom, C. T., & West, J. D. 2021. Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World. NY: Random House. 336 pp. ISBN 978-0525509189

The authors provide a journey through the numerical bullshit that surrounds our daily lives. Each chapter has multiple examples of specific types of bullshit that each of us experience on any given day. Most importantly, information on how to identify bullshit and refute it are provided so that reader finishes the book with a set of skills to be a more engaged and critical interpreter of information. The writing has a quick and lively …

Pattern Of Use Of Electronic Health Record (Ehr) Among The Chronically Ill: A Health Information National Trend Survey (Hints) Analysis, Rose Calixte, Sumaiya Islam, Zainab Toteh Osakwe, Argelis Rivera, Marlene Camacho-Rivera

Publications and Research

Effective patient–provider communication is a cornerstone of patient-centered care. Patient portals provide an effective method for secure communication between patients or their proxies and their health care providers. With greater acceptability of patient portals in private practices, patients have a unique opportunity to manage their health care needs. However, studies have shown that less than 50% of patients reported accessing the electronic health record (EHR) in a 12-month period. We used HINTS 5 cycle 1 and cycle 2 to assess disparities among US residents 18 and older with any chronic condition regarding the use of EHR for secure direct messaging …

Development And Validation Of A Scale To Measure Songwriting Self-Efficacy (Sses) With Secondary Music Students, Patrick K. Cooper

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Social cognitive theory was developed to explain how individuals learn, in part, by witnessing the behavior of others. Self-efficacy is a construct within social cognitive theory which indicates the beliefs that an individual can be successful at a task under specific situational demands. The sources of self-efficacy include self-evaluating past experiences to predict future success, comparing our abilities to those around us, the verbal and social feedback we get from others, and the physiological feelings we experience when engaged in or thinking about the task. Measures of self-efficacy have been shown to be accurate predictors of successful learning outcomes, achievement, …

Pareto Distribution Under Hybrid Censoring: Some Estimation, Gyan Prakash

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In the present study, the Pareto model is considered as the model from which observations are to be estimated using a Bayesian approach. Properties of the Bayes estimators for the unknown parameters have studied by using different asymmetric loss functions on hybrid censoring pattern and their risks have compared. The properties of maximum likelihood estimation and approximate confidence length have also been investigated under hybrid censoring. The performances of the procedures are illustrated based on simulated data obtained under the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and a real data set.

Calibration-Based Estimators Using Different Distance Measures Under Two Auxiliary Variables: A Comparative Study, Piyush Kant Rai, Alka Singh, Muhammad Qasim

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This article introduces calibration estimators under different distance measures based on two auxiliary variables in stratified sampling. The theory of the calibration estimator is presented. The calibrated weights based on different distance functions are also derived. A simulation study has been carried out to judge the performance of the proposed estimators based on the minimum relative root mean squared error criterion. A real-life data set is also used to confirm the supremacy of the proposed method.

Robust Lag Weighted Lasso For Time Series Model, Tahir R. Dikheel, Alaa Q. Yaseen

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The lag-weighted lasso was introduced to deal with lag effects when identifying the true model in time series. This method depends on weights to reflect both the coefficient size and the lag effects. However, the lag weighted lasso is not robust. To overcome this problem, we propose robust lag weighted lasso methods. Both the simulation study and the real data example show that the proposed methods outperform the other existing methods.

Pairwise Balanced Designs From Cyclic Pbib Designs, D. K. Ghosh, N. R. Desai, Shreya Ghosh

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A pairwise balanced designs was constructed using cyclic partially balanced incomplete block designs with either (λ1 – λ2) = 1 or (λ2 – λ1) = 1. This method of construction of Pairwise balanced designs is further generalized to construct it using cyclic partially balanced incomplete block design when |(λ1 – λ2)| = p. The methods of construction of pairwise balanced designs was supported with examples. A table consisting parameters of Cyclic PBIB designs and its corresponding constructed pairwise balanced design is also included.

Generalized Ratio-Cum-Product Estimator For Finite Population Mean Under Two-Phase Sampling Scheme, Gajendra Kumar Vishwakarma, Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A method to lower the MSE of a proposed estimator relative to the MSE of the linear regression estimator under two-phase sampling scheme is developed. Estimators are developed to estimate the mean of the variate under study with the help of auxiliary variate (which are unknown but it can be accessed conveniently and economically). The mean square errors equations are obtained for the proposed estimators. In addition, optimal sample sizes are obtained under the given cost function. The comparison study has been done to set up conditions for which developed estimators are more effective than other estimators with novelty. The …

Two Different Classes Of Shrinkage Estimators For The Scale Parameter Of The Rayleigh Distribution, Talha Omer, Zawar Hussain, Muhammad Qasim, Said Farooq Shah, Akbar Ali Khan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Shrinkage estimators are introduced for the scale parameter of the Rayleigh distribution by using two different shrinkage techniques. The mean squared error properties of the proposed estimator have been derived. The comparison of proposed classes of the estimators is made with the respective conventional unbiased estimators by means of mean squared error in the simulation study. Simulation results show that the proposed shrinkage estimators yield smaller mean squared error than the existence of unbiased estimators.

Extending Singh-Maddala Distribution, Mohamed Ali Ahmed

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A new distribution, the exponentiated transmuted Singh-Maddala distribution (ETSM), is presented, and three important special distributions are illustrated. Some mathematical properties are obtained, and parameters estimation method is applied using maximum likelihood. Illustrations based on random numbers and a real data set are given.

How To Apply Multiple Imputation In Propensity Score Matching With Partially Observed Confounders: A Simulation Study And Practical Recommendations, Albee Ling, Maria Montez-Rath, Maya Mathur, Kris Kapphahn, Manisha Desai

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Propensity score matching (PSM) has been widely used to mitigate confounding in observational studies, although complications arise when the covariates used to estimate the PS are only partially observed. Multiple imputation (MI) is a potential solution for handling missing covariates in the estimation of the PS. However, it is not clear how to best apply MI strategies in the context of PSM. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performances of popular non-MI missing data methods and various MI-based strategies under different missing data mechanisms. We found that commonly applied missing data methods resulted in biased and inefficient estimates, …

A New Right-Skewed Upside Down Bathtub Shaped Heavy-Tailed Distribution And Its Applications, Sandeep Kumar Maurya, Sanjay K. Singh, Umesh Singh

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A one parameter right skewed, upside down bathtub type, heavy-tailed distribution is derived. Various statistical properties and maximum likelihood approaches for estimation purpose are studied. Five different real data sets with four different models are considered to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model.

On The Level Of Precision Of A Heterogeneous Transfer Function In A Statistical Neural Network Model, Christopher Godwin Udomboso

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A heterogeneous function of the statistical neural network is presented from two transfer functions: symmetric saturated linear and hyperbolic tangent sigmoid. The precision of the derived heterogeneous model over their respective homogeneous forms are established, both at increased sample sizes hidden neurons. Results further show the sensitivity of the heterogeneous model to increase in hidden neurons.

A New Generalized Family Of Distributions For Lifetime Data, Maha A. D. Aldahlan, Mohamed G. Khalil, Ahmed Z. Afify

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A new class of continuous distributions called the generalized Burr X-G family is introduced. Some special models of the new family are provided. Some of its mathematical properties including explicit expressions for the quantile and generating functions, ordinary and incomplete moments, order statistics and Rényi entropy are derived. The maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters. The flexibility of the generated family is illustrated by means of two applications to real data sets.

Jmasm 57: Bayesian Survival Analysis Of Lomax Family Models With Stan (R), Mohammed H. A. Abujarad, Athar Ali Khan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

An attempt is made to fit three distributions, the Lomax, exponential Lomax, and Weibull Lomax to implement Bayesian methods to analyze Myeloma patients using Stan. This model is applied to a real survival censored data so that all the concepts and computations will be around the same data. A code was developed and improved to implement censored mechanism throughout using rstan. Furthermore, parallel simulation tools are also implemented with an extensive use of rstan.

Vif-Regression Screening Ultrahigh Dimensional Feature Space, Hassan S. Uraibi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Iterative Sure Independent Screening (ISIS) was proposed for the problem of variable selection with ultrahigh dimensional feature space. Unfortunately, the ISIS method transforms the dimensionality of features from ultrahigh to ultra-low and may result in un-reliable inference when the number of important variables particularly is greater than the screening threshold. The proposed method has transformed the ultrahigh dimensionality of features to high dimension space in order to remedy of losing some information by ISIS method. The proposed method is compared with ISIS method by using real data and simulation. The results show this method is more efficient and more reliable …