Statistics and Probability Commons^™

The Link Between Democratic Institutions And Population Health In The American States, Julianna Pacheco, Scott Lacombe

Government: Faculty Publications

Context: This project investigates the role of state-level institutions in explaining variation in population health in the American states. Although cross-national research has established the positive effects of democracy on population health, little attention has been given to subnational units. The authors leverage a new data set to understand how political accountability and a system of checks and balances are associated with state population health. Methods: The authors estimate error correction models and two-way fixed effects models to estimate how the strength of state-level democratic institutions is associated with infant mortality rates, life expectancy, and midlife mortality. Findings: The authors …

Application Of Probabilistic Ranking Systems On Women’S Junior Division Beach Volleyball, Cameron Stewart, Michael Mazel, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

Women’s beach volleyball is one of the fastest growing collegiate sports today. The increase in popularity has come with an increase in valuable scholarship opportunities across the country. With thousands of athletes to sort through, college scouts depend on websites that aggregate tournament results and rank players nationally. This project partnered with the company Volleyball Life, who is the current market leader in the ranking space of junior beach volleyball players. Utilizing the tournament information provided by Volleyball Life, this study explored replacements to the current ranking systems, which are designed to aggregate player points from recent tournament placements. Three …

Geographic Proximity To Primary Care Providers As A Risk-Assessment Criterion For Quality Performance Measures, Nathaniel Bell, Ana Lopez-De Fede Ph.D., Bo Cai Ph.D., John Brooks Ph.D.

Publications

Importance Previous studies have found a mixed association between Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) designation and improvements in primary care quality indicators, including avoidable pediatric emergency department (ED) encounters. Whether these associations persist after accounting for the geographic locations of providers relative to where patients reside is unknown. Objective To examine the association between geographic proximity to primary care providers versus hospitals and risk of avoidable and potentially avoidable ED visits among children with pre-existing diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder or asthma. Methods Retrospective cohort study of a panel of pediatric Medicaid claims data from the South Carolina from 2016–2018 for 2,959 …

Spatial Analysis For Enhancing The Use Of Health Data Availability From Different Sources To Help The Decision-Making Process, Tris Eryando

Kesmas

Spatial analysis in public health has become a common method used by researchers to understand the distribution of public health aspects related to the surrounding environment. It can also be used to analyze individual information in the form of a dot and the location or line of aggregated information in a specific area of study. Another benefit is the possibility of using different data sources to be analyzed in one statistical model analysis, as long as the identification area is sufficiently clear as a key variable. Spatial analysis can show an object's distribution on a locational map and explain the …

Sars-Cov-2 Antibody Seroprevalence In Jakarta, Indonesia, Iwan Ariawan, Hafizah Jusril, Muhammad N Farid, Pandu Riono, Wiji Wahyuningsih, Widyastuti Widyastuti, Dwi Oktavia T L Handayani, Endang Sri Wahyuningsih, Rebekka Daulay, Retno Henderiawati, Safarina G. Malik, Rintis Noviyanti, Leily Trianty, Nadia Fadila, Khin Saw Aye Myint, Frilasita A. Yudhaputri, Neeraja Venkateswaran, Kodumudi Venkateswaran, Venkatachalam Udhayakumar, William A. Hawley, Juliette Morgan, Paul M. Pronyk

Kesmas

The SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in low- and middle-income countries remain poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies seroprevalence in Jakarta, Indonesia, and to increase knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in urban settings. A population-based serosurvey among individuals aged one year or older was conducted in Jakarta. Employing a multistage sampling design, samples were stratified by district, slum, and non-slum residency, sex, and age group. Blood samples were tested for IgG against three different SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Seroprevalence was estimated after applying sample weights and adjusting for cluster characteristics. In March 2021, this study collected 4,919 respondents. The weighted estimate …

A Stunting Prevention Risk Factors Pathway Model For Indonesian Districts/Cities With A Stunting Prevalence Of ≥30%, Nina Fentiana, Endang L. Achadi, Besral Besral, Abram Kamiza, Trini Sudiarti

Kesmas

The prevalence of stunting in Indonesian children aged 0-23 months is a public health problem caused by direct and indirect factors. This study aimed to discover the path of the relationship between various risk factors and the stunting prevalence of ≥30% in 165 districts/cities in Indonesia. Data were obtained from the 2018 National Basic Health Research, National Socioeconomic Survey, and the Statistics Indonesia with a cross-sectional approach. The secondary data on stunting and risk factors were aggregated at the district/city level from individual data; children aged 0-23 months. The path analysis used to determine a stunting prevention model showed that …

Determinants Of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among Passive Smokers, Adinda Rahma Triyaniarta, Santi Martini, Kurnia Dwi Artanti, Sri Widati, Rizma Dwi Nastiti

Kesmas

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) leads to complications of other diseases. The modifiable risk factors for T2DM are overweight, physical activity, hypertension, unhealthy diet, and smoking. This study aimed to analyze determinants of T2DM incidence in passive smokers among various factors. This study was conducted at Hospital X in Surabaya City, East Java Province, Indonesia, from September 2019 to April 2020. The variables were univariate, bivariate, and multivariate. Case samples were T2DM patients and passive smokers, while control samples were non-T2DM patients and passive smokers, with 52 respondents per group, of 104 total respondents. Variables statistically significant related to the …

The Effect Of Health Promotion Program On Perceived Self-Efficacy And Self-Care Practices Among Elderly With Multimorbidity In Chiang Mai, Thailand, Jukkrit Wungrath, Nuttida Khumai, Phinphot Phrommasen

Kesmas

Multimorbidity in the elderly is a major public health issue with serious consequences. This study investigated the effects of health promotion programs on perceived self-efficacy and self-care practices among the elderly with multimorbidity using a quasi-experimental study design from February to July 2021. The study samples were the elderly from Doi Saket District, Chiang Mai Province, Thailand, selected by a multistage random sampling technique. The experimental and control groups each comprised 40 elderlies with multimorbidity. All elderly participants took part in a 12-week health promotion program. The perceived self-efficacy and self-care practices of the study samples were assessed using interviews, …

Predictors Of Anxiety Toward Covid-19 Delta Variant: A Cross- Sectional Study Among Healthcare Providers In Java And Bali, Indonesia, I Ketut Swarjana, I Gede Putu Darma Suyasa, I Kadek Nuryanto

Kesmas

Health facilities are experiencing overcapacity, oxygen scarcity, and a limited number of healthcare providers due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), thus impacted on anxiety. This study aimed to determine predictors of anxiety among healthcare providers toward the Delta variant of COVID-19 in Indonesia. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 371 healthcare providers in Java and Bali Islands, and the snowball sampling technique was used. Data were collected using a questionnaire and distributed through social media (WhatsApp), then analyzed using univariate analysis, bivariate analysis (Chi-square test), and multivariate analysis (multiple logistic regression). The results showed that 81 (21.8%) respondents experienced …

Perspectives On Reproductive Health Education Among Javanese Parents, Bagoes Widjanarko, Ratih Indraswari, Aditya Kusumawati, Novia Handayani

Kesmas

This study aimed to investigate the perspectives of reproductive health education among Javanese parents of children aged 9-11 years. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 12,306 parents in Semarang City, Central Java Province, Indonesia, using a purposive sampling technique. Some parents agreed that reproductive health education at home was unnecessary (29.5%), taboo (45%), difficult (73.1%), and awkward (41.5%). Most parents (72.7%) were not transparent in providing reproductive health information to their children by using other terms to name the genitals, considering the politeness aspect. Good practices of providing reproductive health information are slightly more common in mothers (54.2%), unemployed parents …

Spatial Analysis Of Seven Islands In Indonesia To Determine Stunting Hotspots, Tiopan Sipahutar, Tris Eryando, Meiwita Budiharsana

Kesmas

Indonesia is a vast country struggling to reduce its stunting prevalence. Hence, identifying priority areas is urgent. In determining areas to prioritize, one needs to consider geographical issues, particularly correlations among areas. This study aimed to discover whether stunting prevalence in Indonesia occurs randomly or in clusters; and, if it occurs in clusters, which areas are the hotspots. This ecological study used aggregate data from the 2018 National Basic Health Research and Poverty Data and Information Report from the Statistics Indonesia. This study analyzed 514 districts/cities across 34 provinces on seven main islands in Indonesia. The method used was the …

Model Autonomy Of Self-Finance Management For Primary Health Care To Enhance Workers’ Satisfaction, Ahmad Jet Alamin, Ossama Issac, Lina Teo, Atikah Adyas

Kesmas

This study aimed to find an appropriate model of autonomous self-finance management in primary health care (PHC) to enhance workers' satisfaction. This was a cross-sectional study in which data were collected through self-administered questionnaires from 204 workers in ten Regional Public Service Agency for Primary Health Care (RPSAPHC)/Badan Layanan Umum Daerah Pusat Kesehatan Masyarakat (BLUD Puskesmas) in Tangerang District, Banten Province, Indonesia using the partial least squares and structural equation model (PLS-SEM). A total of 73 indicators were used to examine the PHC transformation process to enhance workers' satisfaction. The indicators were grouped into three variables depending on workers' satisfaction: …

Between “Breaking” And “Building”: The Bridge Theory Of Research Evaluation, Fang Xu, Xiaoxuan Li

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

How to build "new standards" after breaking "Siwei" is a hot and difficult issue in the current reform of research evaluation, which urgently needs good theoretical and methodological support. In this context, this study puts forward the BRIDGE theory of research evaluation of scientific researchers' achievements, which is to integrate the reasonable elements in the quantitative evaluation based on SCI papers into the "new standard" based on peer review, so as to build a bridge between quantitative analysis and qualitative evaluation. The practical application of BRIDGE theory is expressed as "Six Steps", in which the second step "Recode" and the …

Concerns With Taking The Covid-19 Vaccine, Kaela Bellamy, Robert S. Keyser

The Kennesaw Journal of Undergraduate Research

This IRB-approved descriptive study provides an overview of the concerns associated with receiving a COVID-19 vaccination within the Kennesaw State University community, an R2 university with over 41,000 students, and uses a survey to provide insight into how students, faculty, staff, and administrators are responding to the vaccinations for COVID-19, both available and unavailable, and their preferences. Our research findings indicate that: 1) Most of the population at Kennesaw State University intends to receive the vaccine, regardless of their concerns; 2) The majority of the participants who are either employed or provided an education by Kennesaw State University plan to …

Reply To Response By Fbi Laboratory Filed In Illinois V. Winfield And Affidavit By Biederman Et Al. (2022) Filed In Us V. Kaevon Sutton (2018 Cf1 009709), Susan Vanderplas, Kori Khan, Heike Hofmann, Alicia Carriquiry

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

1 Preliminaries

1.1 Scope

The aim of this document is to respond to issues raised in Federal Bureau of Investigation¹ and Alex Biedermann, Bruce Budowle & Christophe Champod.²

1.2 Conflict of Interest

We are statisticians employed at public institutions of higher education (Iowa State University and University of Nebraska, Lincoln) and have not been paid for our time or expertise when preparing either this response or the original affidavit.³ We provide this information as a public service and as scientists and researchers in this area.

1.3 Organization

The rest of the document precedes as follows: we begin …

Forecasting Country Conflict Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann, Darryl K. Ahner, Raymond R. Hill

Faculty Publications

Purpose — This paper aims to examine whether changing the clustering of countries within a United States Combatant Command (COCOM) area of responsibility promotes improved forecasting of conflict. Design/methodology/approach — In this paper statistical learning methods are used to create new country clusters that are then used in a comparative analysis of model-based conflict prediction. Findings — In this study a reorganization of the countries assigned to specific areas of responsibility are shown to provide improvements in the ability of models to predict conflict. Research limitations/implications — The study is based on actual historical data and is purely data driven. …

Adjusting Community Survey Data Benchmarks For External Factors, Allen Miller, Nicole M. Norelli, Robert Slater, Mingyang N. Yu

SMU Data Science Review

Abstract. Using U.S. resident survey data from the National Community Survey in combination with public data from the U.S. Census and additional sources, a Voting Regressor Model was developed to establish fair benchmark values for city performance. These benchmarks were adjusted for characteristics the city cannot easily influence that contribute to confidence in local government, such as population size, demographics, and income. This adjustment allows for a more meaningful comparison and interpretation of survey results among individual cities. Methods explored for the benchmark adjustment included cluster analysis, anomaly detection, and a variety of regression techniques, including random forest, ridge, decision …

Why, New York City? Gauging The Quality Of Life Through The Thoughts Of Tweeters, Sheryl Williams

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

As a resource for social data, Twitter’s platform has been used to measure the quality of life through sentiment analysis. This capstone project explores another methodological technique—querying Twitter data around specific keyword terms to determine dominant topics, word patterns, and sentiment leanings in a geographical area. Focusing on New York City and Los Angeles for comparative analysis, the keyword term “why” will be used to build a Python analysis around topic modeling and sentiment analysis. Using this approach, the analysis reveals social and cultural differences, the overall sentiment of tweets, and subjects of interest to tweeters.

GitHub Repository for all …

Unrestricted Factor Analysis: A Powerful Alternative To Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Jan-Benedict E.M. Steenkamp, Alberto Maydeu-Olivares

Faculty Publications

The gold standard for modeling multiple indicator measurement data is confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), which has many statistical advantages over traditional exploratory factor analysis (EFA). In most CFA applications, items are assumed to be pure indicators of the construct they intend to measure. However, despite our best efforts, this is often not the case. Cross-loadings incorrectly set to zero can only be expressed through the correlations between the factors, leading to biased factor correlations and to biased structural (regression) parameter estimates. This article introduces a third approach, which has emerged in the psychometric literature, viz., unrestricted factor analysis (UFA). UFA …

Effect Of Monetary Policy Rate On Market Interest Rates In Nigeria: A Threshold And Nardl Approach, Oluwafemi E. Awopegba, Joseph O. Afolabi, Lydia T. Adeoye, Godwin O. Akpokodje

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on market interest rates in Nigeria. For parsimony, we develop two indexes called the short-term interest rate (SINT) and Lending interest rate (LINT) to represent deposit and lending rates respectively. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and threshold regression models are adopted. The study uses monthly data from 2002:M1 to 2019:M12. The results of the threshold regression model indicate that the degree of the effect of MPR on SINT and LINT above the estimated threshold of 11 and 13 percent respectively is greater and significant than if MPR were to …

Social Dimension Of Inclusive Growth In Ecowas: Implication For Poverty Reduction, Toriola K. Anu, Goerge O. Emmanuel, Ajayi O. Felix

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the implication of the social dimension of inclusive growth on poverty reduction in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries. It specifically examines how social indices of inclusive growth comprising of income inequality, education, and health outcomes affect poverty reduction. The study uses a panel dataset of the six (6) lower-middle income countries in ECOWAS which was analysed via panel Difference Generalised Method of Moment (D-GMM). The results show that GDP per capita exerts significant negative effect on poverty while inequality, education and health outcomes do not show significant effect on poverty. Although, the estimates of …

Effect Of Fdi Inflows On Employment Generation In Selected Ecowas Countries: Heterogeneous Panel Analysis, Timothy A. Aderemi, Olawunmi Omitogun, Bukonla G. Osisanwo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of FDI on employment in ECOWAS sub region between 1990 and 2019. The study utilizes a panel autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse the short run and long run relationship between FDI and employment across ECOWAS sub region. In the short run, the impact of FDI on employment is negative and statistically not significant. Meanwhile, in the long run FDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on employment rate. This implies that FDI has the capacity to generate employment in countries in ECOWAS sub region. Therefore, this study recommends …

Impact Of Covid-19 Pandemic On The Nigeria Stock Market: A Sectoral Stock Prices Analysis, Peter A. Adekunle, Yakubu A. Bello, Udochukwu G. Nwachukwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sectoral stock prices in Nigeria stock market using daily data covering from February 28, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that COVID-19 pandemic had adverse impact on the stock market indices in the short run. Furthermore, the study documents negative response of sectoral stock prices to the pandemic while the stock prices of the banking sub-sector are the worst hit. Compared to the consumer goods, and industrial subsector indices, the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium is faster for …

Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (Bph): A Comprehensive Analysis Of The Malaise And Summarizing Possible Management Options Through Phytotherapeutic Agents, Shan Sasidharan, Kumarapillai Parameswaran Srinivasakumar, Sandeep Poddar, Amiya Bhaumik, Sreemoy Kanti Das, Hareendran Nair J

Kesmas

Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is a severe illness affecting middle-aged and geriatric male patients. This disease normally occurs at the age of 40 or above and is also associated with sexual dysfunction. Alpha-blockers and 5α-reductase inhibitors are the preferred drugs practiced to treat BPH. However, invasive surgical therapy remains the gold standard for managing the condition in the case of refractory and intricate BPH conditions. Due to the fear of sexual dysfunction and the detrimental influence on their quality of life, most patients seek to avoid synthetic drugs and surgery. For this reason, several patients turn to phytotherapy and other …

Treatment Adherence And Incidence Of Coronary Heart Disease In Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients, Ahmad Sahlan Baniu, Rani Sauriasari, Woro Riyadina, Pradana Soewondo

Kesmas

Previous studies showed that uncontrolled blood sugar and long-term use of several types of antidiabetic could increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). This study aimed to compare the incidence of CHD in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients showing treatment adherence and non-adherence behavior over four years. This was a retrospective cohort study with data sets obtained from the Bogor Cohort Study of Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors. All study subjects were not diagnosed with CHD at the beginning of the study. The sample was divided into two groups; one had adhered to treatment from health centers and followed …

Local Wisdom Enriching Complementary Feeding Practices During Disaster Situations In Indonesia, Astuti Astuti, Happy Hayati, Fajar Tri Waluyanti, Dessie Wanda

Kesmas

This study aimed to analyze complementary food fulfillment during disaster situations in Indonesia since it frequently experiences natural disasters and young children face unique challenges related to their feeding needs in disaster situations. This qualitative case study based on the Mount Merapi eruption and Sumedang landslide in 2021 collected data using observations, forum group discussions, and in-depth interviews; then, a thematic analysis was conducted. This study involved 17 participants, including Non-governmental Organizations (NGO) activists, health workers, residents involved in making complementary foods, and primary caregivers of children aged 6–24 months. This study found that there were five themes generated from …

Muscle Dysmorphia In Fitness Center Members: Its Affecting Factors And Impacts, Deny Yudi Fitranti, Nurmasari Widyastuti, Etika Ratna Noer, Ayu Rahadiyanti, Fillah Fithra Dieny, Rachma Purwanti, Dewi Kurnia Sandi, Widya Destikasari

Kesmas

Muscle dysmorphia (MD) has several impacts on the decline in social and health functions. This study aimed to determine the correlation between MD with eating behaviors and exercise loading among fitness center members and analyze the factors affecting it. This study used a cross-sectional design with 100 subjects chosen by a consecutive sampling method at three fitness centers in Semarang City. The subjects were all male members of an active fitness center between 17 and 45 years. The data of MD were obtained using the Drive Muscular Scale (DMS), while eating behavior data were obtained using the Eating Attitude Test-40 …

Determinants Of The Coexistence Dual Form Of Malnutrition In Pairs Of Mother And Child Aged 6 – 59 Months In Bogor District 2019, Maulina Dwi Krismanita, Triyanti Triyanti, Ahmad Syafiq, Trini Sudiarti

Kesmas

The dual form of malnutrition (DFM) is defined as multiple nutritional problems in the same household and time. This study aimed to determine the related factor to DFM incidence in pairs of mothers and children aged 6–59 months in Bogor District in 2019. This cross-sectional study used secondary data on the Nutrition and Health of Babakan Madang Subdistrict Toddlers in 2019 and Nutrition Intake and Stunting of Children Under-Five in Bogor District, West Java Province, involving a total sample of 274 households. The dependent variable in this study was DFM, while the independent variables were maternal age during pregnancy, maternal …

The Influence Of Intrapersonal Constraints On Travel Intention Of People At High Risk From Covid-19 During The New Normal, Dyah Widiyastuti, Ikasari Kusuma Wardhani

Kesmas

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism constraints have created a challenge for inclusive tourism, especially for older people and people with comorbidities. This study examined intrapersonal constraints’ effect on the travel intentions of people facing fewer opportunities for tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which could disrupt their well-being fulfillment. The data were collected through an online survey of Jakarta citizens aged 46 years and older from the end of June to September 2021, and a total of 337 responses were accumulated. This study applied partial least square structural equation modeling to test the moderating effect of intrapersonal constraints toward …

Zoom Fatigue During The Covid-19 Pandemic: Is It Real?, Putri Winda Lestari, Adhila Fayasari

Kesmas

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused drastic changes to social lives moreover the activities done outside, such as work and school. The policy of large-scale social restrictions (LSRR)/Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), which makes people stay at home, also plays an important role in changing the face-to-face activity online. As a solution to the major change, people use video conferencing to keep in touch and still feel like doing "offline" activities. The increasing use of video conferencing has raised concerns about the resulting fatigue, termed "Zoom fatigue." This study aimed to describe Zoom fatigue during the COVID-19 pandemic …