Statistics and Probability Commons^™

The Appropriateness Of Outlier Exclusion Approaches Depends On The Expected Contamination: Commentary On André (2022), Daniel Villanova

Marketing Faculty Publications and Presentations

In a recent article, André (2022) addressed the decision to exclude outliers using a threshold across conditions or within conditions and offered a clear recommendation to avoid within-conditions exclusions because of the possibility for large false-positive inflation. In this commentary, I note that André’s simulations did not include the situation for which within-conditions exclusion has previously been recommended—when across-conditions exclusion would exacerbate selection bias. Examining test performance in this situation confirms the recommendation for within-conditions exclusion in such a circumstance. Critically, the suitability of exclusion criteria must be considered in relationship to assumptions about data-generating mechanisms.

Unraveling The Neural Basis Of Emotions: Advancing Understanding With Ecologically Valid Paradigms And High-Resolution Intracranial Eeg, Tiankang Xie

Dartmouth College Ph.D Dissertations

Background

Emotion arises from integrating information about the external world with memories of past experiences, current homeostatic states, and future goals. They play a vital role in regulating our thoughts, feelings and behaviors, significantly impacting our mental health. Thus, it is important to understand the neurobiological mechanisms that give rise to emotions. While there has been considerable work investigating the neural basis of emotions, progress has been hampered by several methodological limitations. For example, prior work has relied on relatively simple and isolated stimuli, which often fail to effectively capture the dynamic and multifaceted nature of emotional experiences in real-life …

What Makes An Impartial Jury? Perceptions Of Jury Impartiality And Court Legitimacy, Joshua P. Freitag

Quantitative Social Science Undergraduate Senior Theses

In light of decreasing trust in courts at all levels of the American justice system, it is more important than ever to understand what affects people’s perceptions of the courts as fair, just, and legitimate. The Black Lives Matter protests highlighted a racial element to perceptions of impartiality in the jury system. Existing literature reveals a complex historical relationship between race and the jury, but little research has been done on public perceptions of race in the jury box.

With a novel two-experiment design using a survey instrument and a half White–half Black respondent sample pool fielded using Prolific, I …

Statistical And Biological Analyses Of Acoustic Signals In Estrildid Finches, Moises Rivera

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Acoustic communication is a process that involves auditory perception and signal processing. Discrimination and recognition further require cognitive processes and supporting mechanisms in order to successfully identify and appropriately respond to signal senders. Although acoustic communication is common across birds, classical research has largely disregarded the perceptual abilities of perinatal altricial taxa. Chapter 1 reviews the literature of perinatal acoustic stimulation in birds, highlighting the disproportionate focus on precocial birds (e.g., chickens, ducks, quails). The long-held belief that altricial birds were incapable of acoustic perception in ovo was only recently overturned, as researchers began to find behavioral and physiological evidence …

Identifying And Sharing Per-And Polyfluoroalkyl Substances Hot-Spot Areas And Exposures In Drinking Water, Sweta Ojha, P. Travis Thompson, Christian D. Powell, Hunter N. B. Moseley, Kelly G. Pennell

Markey Cancer Center Faculty Publications

Exposure to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water is widely recognized as a public health concern. Decision-makers who are responsible for managing PFAS drinking water risks lack the tools to acquire the information they need. In response to this need, we provide a detailed description of a Kentucky dataset that allows decision-makers to visualize potential hot-spot areas and evaluate drinking water systems that may be susceptible to PFAS contamination. The dataset includes information extracted from publicly available sources to create five different maps in ArcGIS Online and highlights potential sources of PFAS contamination in the environment in relation …

Digital Economy, Institutional Quality And Economic Growth In Selected Countries, Olabode P. Olofin Mr.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the role of digital economy and institutional quality on economic growth of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The study adopts the feasible generalized least square method with annual panel data from 1985 to 2017. Results show that digital economy, human capital and knowledge worker, and democratic accountability promote economic growth, while corruption, socioeconomic conditions, and bureaucratic quality retard economic growth. Furthermore, interaction of digital economy with corruption promotes growth. However, the interaction of digital economy with institutional quality retards economic growth, which could be due to the deteriorating institutional quality and low level of economic digitalization in …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the exchange rate gap shock–stock market deepening nexus in Nigeria using the structural VAR-X (SVAR-X) technique for the period 1986Q1 to 2018Q4. Findings reveal that exchange rate gap shock has a negative but statistically not significant effect on stock market deepening in Nigeria. It was also found that exchange rate passed–through interest rate from second to thirteen quarter, and further through financial openness whose effect, like exchange rate gap, was negative. This implies that exchange rate gap is significantly and negatively related to interest rate and financial openness in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the monetary …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

An Empirical Evaluation Of Neural Process Meta-Learners For Financial Forecasting, Kevin G. Patel

Master's Theses

Challenges of financial forecasting, such as a dearth of independent samples and non- stationary underlying process, limit the relevance of conventional machine learning towards financial forecasting. Meta-learning approaches alleviate some of these is- sues by allowing the model to generalize across unrelated or loosely related tasks with few observations per task. The neural process family achieves this by con- ditioning forecasts based on a supplied context set at test time. Despite promise, meta-learning approaches remain underutilized in finance. To our knowledge, ours is the first application of neural processes to realized volatility (RV) forecasting and financial forecasting in general.

We …

Payments Data In Gambling Research, Kasra Ghaharian, Mana Azizsoltani

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A considerable body of gambling-related research has leveraged gamblers' behavioral tracking data to address a broad set of research questions. These data have typically comprised of gamblers' betting-related behaviors including, for example, the frequency and volume of betting. The analysis of gamblers' payment-related behavioral data is far less common, but provides a fruitful avenue gambling-related research.

In this presentation we discuss a selection of potential research opportunities that payments transaction data presents. We supplement this discussion with specific analyses that have been performed by our research group. We also discuss knowledge gaps and areas for future research.

Stake Size And Wagering In A Professional Betting Environment – When Data Affects Decision Making, Anthony Bedford, Tristan Barnett

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In this work, we discuss the structure of a number of professional wagering organisations, and how they attempt to deal with the “Ender’s Game” effect – when knowledge of the true nature of the ‘war being wagered’ may have affected the process and choice of betting. We analyse the responses from professional wagering and betting organisations, whom operate predominately in Horseracing and sportsbetting, and they identify the importance of separation of decisions around choices to make and the stakes and size of wagers that are linked to the decisions. The proposed model, practically carried out by one company, is an …

Special Education: Inclusion And Exclusion In The K-12 U.S. Educational System, Erik Brault

Dissertations

The U.S. Department of Education defines students with disabilities as those having a physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more life activities. Previous research has found that students with disabilities placed in inclusive environments perform better academically and socially compared to students with disabilities who are placed in segregated environments. Yet, we know that inclusion in K-12 general education classrooms across the country is not consistently implemented.

The purpose of this study was to better understand the effects, if any, of general education high school teachers’ personal and professional experiences and knowledge on their attitudes toward educating …

Utilizing New Technologies To Measure Therapy Effectiveness For Mental And Physical Health, Jonathan Ossie

Dissertations

Mental health is quickly becoming a major policy concern, with recent data reporting increasing and disproportionately worse mental health outcomes, including anxiety, depression, increased substance abuse, and elevated suicidal ideation. One specific population that is especially high risk for these issues is the military community because military conflict, deployment stressors, and combat exposure contribute to the risk of mental health problems.

Although several pharmacological approaches have been employed to combat this epidemic, their efficacy is mixed at best, which has led to novel nonpharmacological approaches. One such approach is Operation Surf, a nonprofit that provides nature-based programs advocating the restorative …

Analytical Approach For Monitoring The Behavior Of Patients With Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma At Different Stages As A Function Of Time, Aditya Chakaborty Dr, Chris P. Tsokos Dr

Biology and Medicine Through Mathematics Conference

No abstract provided.

Public Acceptance Of Guidance And Regulations For Space Flight Participation, Cory Trunkhill, Robert Joslin, Joseph Keebler

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

Space flight participants are not professional astronauts and not subject to the rules and guidance covering space flight crewmembers. Ordinal logistic regression of survey data was utilized to explore public acceptance of current medical screening recommendations and regulations for safety risk and implied liability for civil space flight participation. Independent variables constituted participant demographic representations while dependent variables represented current Federal Aviation Administration guidance and regulations. Odds ratios were derived based on the demographic categories to interpret likelihood of acceptance for the criteria. Significant likely acceptance of guidance and regulations was found for five of twelve demographic variables influencing public …

Evaluating Models Of Scanpath Prediction, Matthias Kümmerer, Matthias Bethge

MODVIS Workshop

No abstract provided.

Drug Ideologies Of The United States, Macy Montgomery

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

The United States has been increasingly creating lenient drug policies. Seventeen states and Washington, the District of Columbia, legalized marijuana, and Oregon decriminalized certain drugs, including methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine. The medical community has proven that drugs, including marijuana, have myriad adverse health side effects. This leads to two questions: Why does the United States government continue to create lenient drug policies, and what reasons do citizens give for legalizing drugs when the medical community has proven them harmful? The paper hypothesizes that the disadvantages of drug legalization outweigh its benefits because of the numerous harms it causes, such as …

Comparing Hierarchical Data Structures And Hierarchical Data Analysis, Halley Jeanne Dante, Robert Rovetti

Honors Thesis

Real world data is inherently noisy and data analysis can be especially complex when noise is compounded in hierarchical and multilevel data structures. Since such data structures can be described using multiple approaches, the way data is collapsed and grouped within these structures can influence its resulting interpretation and analyses. To avoid discrepancies in data collapsing and grouping, multiple statistical approaches have been developed specifically to analyze multilevel data structures. Examples of multilevel statistical models are the two-factor ANOVA and the general linear model with repeated-measures (GLM-RR) which is typically used in the context of looking at change over time. …

Quantifying The Effect Of Socio-Economic Predictors And The Built Environment On Mental Health Events In Little Rock, Ar, Alfieri Ek, Grant Drawve, Samantha Robinson, Jyotishka Datta

Sociology and Criminology Faculty Publications and Presentations

Law enforcement agencies continue to grow in the use of spatial analysis to assist in identifying patterns of outcomes. Despite the critical nature of proper resource allocation for mental health incidents, there has been little progress in statistical modeling of the geo-spatial nature of mental health events in Little Rock, Arkansas. In this article, we provide insights into the spatial nature of mental health data from Little Rock, Arkansas between 2015 and 2018, under a supervised spatial modeling framework. We provide evidence of spatial clustering and identify the important features influencing such heterogeneity via a spatially informed hierarchy of generalized …

A Monte Carlo Analysis Of Nonprobability Sampling & Post Hoc Corrections, Julia Hong

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Nonprobability samples are often used in place of probability samples because the former are less trouble and less expensive. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine how well a sample represents population parameters when using nonprobability samples. Researchers attempt to mitigate the disadvantages of nonprobability sampling by performing post hoc corrections, but this adjustment may not successfully undo the effects of nonprobability sampling. To examine these effects, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to create a pseudo-population from which samples were drawn. Forty-one conditions were replicated 10,000 times each, with each sample consisting of 100 observations. A post-stratification adjustment was made …

Developing A Risk Assessment Instrument For Immigration Cases Under Federal Supervision, Mayra Eydie Pacheco

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Hispanic Human Capital And Financial Aid Application In The West Census Region, Benjamin Lundy-Paine

Capstone Projects and Master's Theses

As of 2021, very few Hispanic residents in the United States held a college degree in comparison to non-Hispanic residents. Research has shown that, particularly for Hispanic students, financial aid increases college persistence. Hispanic Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) submission rates rank among the lowest, preventing many Hispanic students from receiving financial assistance. This issue is most prevalent West Census Region (WCR), where there is the highest concentration of Hispanic residents. To understand what barriers may be preventing Hispanic submission in the WCR this Capstone used logistic regression models to analyze student-level data from the National Center for …

Gentrification And Crime In The Twin Cities: Insights And Challenges Through A Statistical Lens, Erin G. Franke

Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science Honors Projects

Gentrification is a complex process of urban redevelopment that typically involves an in-migration of educated people to neighborhoods experiencing a period of disinvestment. While gentrification is widely regarded for its potential to displace long-time businesses and residents of the neighborhood, its impact on crime is highly controversial. There is not a consensus on the relationship between gentrification and crime across criminological theory and past statistical studies have also shown contradictory results. Measuring gentrification on the tract level with census data, we seek to understand gentrification’s relationship with violent crime and theft in the Twin Cities. Using a Poisson model with …

Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The abundance, accessibility, and scale of data have engendered an era where machine learning can quickly and accurately solve complex problems, identify complicated patterns, and uncover intricate trends. One research area where many have applied these techniques is the stock market. Yet, financial domains are influenced by many factors and are notoriously difficult to predict due to their volatile and multivariate behavior. However, the literature indicates that public sentiment data may exhibit significant predictive qualities and improve a model’s ability to predict intricate trends. In this study, momentum SVM classification accuracy was compared between datasets that did and did not …

The 2015 Ncaa Cost-Of-Attendance Stipend And Its Effects On Institutional Financial Aid Packages, Sara Greene

Honors Theses

In 2015, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) allowed “Cost of Attendance” (COA) stipends to be offered to athletic recruits for Division I schools. These stipends are intended to allow schools to grant aid to student-athletes beyond a full-ride scholarship to cover additional costs imposed on student-athletes. These stipends created an opportunity for the “Autonomy” Power 5 programs to utilize a competitive tactic to try to win over the top recruits. There is evidence that these COA stipends have caused an increase in the estimated cost of attendance reported by the university. This paper examines if the COA stipends have …

Teaching About The Global Refugee Crisis, Melissa Kafer

Honors Projects

Around the world, there are more than 30 million refugees (UNHCR, 2023) facing language barriers, cultural differences, prejudice, racism, and xenophobia. The number of admitted refugees in 2022 has more than doubled since 2021 (Duffin, 2022), and yet, many Americans do not know or understand the global refugee crisis. There are misconceptions in America that cause lack of empathy, bias, and prejudice towards refugees. Through the creation of four lesson plans, this research project aims to discover Americans’ misunderstandings regarding refugees and teach them about the crisis to remedy the misconceptions. This study includes a literature review detailing appropriate teaching …

Two Sample Statistical Test For Location Parameters, Narinder Kumar, Arun Kumar

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A class of distribution-free tests for the homogeneity of location parameters is proposed and compared with different competitors in terms of Pitman asymptotic relative efficiency. A numerical example is provided and a simulation study is made to check the performance of the tests.

The Bellarmine Bee Bed: Organizing A Native Plant Garden Using Feedback From The Local Community, Kate Moran

Undergraduate Theses

Animal pollinators are the cornerstone of healthy ecosystems. Their survival is essential for the persistence of entire food chains: from the flowers they cross-pollinate directly, to the animals who depend on those plants for nutrition. The establishment of pollinator gardens—particularly ones that consist of native plants—is an effective way to enhance their biodiversity, abundance, and well-being.

The main goal of this thesis is to construct a pollinator garden that maximizes the benefits for animal pollinators using feedback from local gardeners. A survey was used to gather information about the popularity and preferences of 40 flowering plants, and after analyzing the …