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Full-Text Articles in Statistics and Probability

Consilience: Radiocarbon, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis, And Litigation In The Ancestral Caddo Region, Robert Z. Selden Jr. Jan 2013

Consilience: Radiocarbon, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis, And Litigation In The Ancestral Caddo Region, Robert Z. Selden Jr.

CRHR: Archaeology

Through the creation and analysis of databases for radiocarbon, instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), and law, macro-level trends are exposed that form the framework of a broader research program aimed at advancing ideas of craft specialization and archaeological theory in the ancestral Caddo region of Southwest Arkansas, Northwest Louisiana, Northeast Texas, and Southeast Oklahoma. The findings of this investigation illustrate the research potential that remains buried within the context of cultural resource management (CRM) reports and legal databases (Westlaw and LexisNexis) that is awaiting consumption within regional research designs aimed at exploring the nuances and trends that appear through synthetic …


The Psychological Impacts Of False Positive Ovarian Cancer Screening: Assessment Via Mixed And Trajectory Modeling, Amanda T. Wiggins Jan 2013

The Psychological Impacts Of False Positive Ovarian Cancer Screening: Assessment Via Mixed And Trajectory Modeling, Amanda T. Wiggins

Theses and Dissertations--Epidemiology and Biostatistics

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the fifth most common cancer among women and has the highest mortality of any cancer of the female reproductive system. The majority (61%) of OC cases are diagnosed at a distant stage. Because diagnoses occur most commonly at a late-stage and prognosis for advanced disease is poor, research focusing on the development of effective OC screening methods to facilitate early detection in high-risk, asymptomatic women is fundamental in reducing OC-specific mortality. Presently, there is no screening modality proven efficacious in reducing OC-mortality. However, transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) has shown value in early detection of OC. TVS presents …


Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly Jan 2013

Nfl Betting Market: Using Adjusted Statistics To Test Market Efficiency And Build A Betting Model, James P. Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account …


Why Police Learn From Third-Party Data, Randall K. Johnson Jan 2013

Why Police Learn From Third-Party Data, Randall K. Johnson

Faculty Works

This essay argues that third-party data collection, particularly of administrative complaints and departmental audit information, holds greater promise than lawsuit data collection. It does so by asserting that third-party data collection is more useful for three reasons. First, third-party data collection prevents manipulation by individual police officers and law enforcement agencies. Second, it assures that police behavioral trends are actually identified. Lastly, third-party data collection helps to deter published § 1983 cases. The essay, however, only models and tests the final claim.


Do Non-Response Follow-Ups Improve Or Reduce Data Quality?: A Review Of The Existing Literature, Kristen Olson Jan 2013

Do Non-Response Follow-Ups Improve Or Reduce Data Quality?: A Review Of The Existing Literature, Kristen Olson

Department of Sociology: Faculty Publications

The paper systematically reviews existing literature on the relationship between the level of effort to recruit a sampled person and the measurement quality of survey data. Hypotheses proposed for this relationship are reviewed. Empirical findings for the relationship between level of effort as measured by paradata (the number of follow-up attempts, refusal conversion and time in the field) and question-specific item non-response rates, aggregate measures of item non-response rates, response accuracy and various measurement errors on attitudinal questions are examined through a qualitative review.


State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone Jan 2013

State Level Earned Income Tax Credit’S Effects On Race And Age: An Effective Poverty Reduction Policy, Anthony J. Barone

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I analyze the effectiveness of state level Earned Income Tax Credit programs on improving of poverty levels. I conducted this analysis for the years 1991 through 2011 using a panel data model with fixed effects. The main independent variables of interest were the state and federal EITC rates, minimum wage, gross state product, population, and unemployment all by state. I determined increases to the state EITC rates provided only a slight decrease to both the overall white below-poverty population and the corresponding white childhood population under 18, while both the overall and the under-18 black population for …


Variable Selection In Nonparametric And Semiparametric Regression Models, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang Jan 2013

Variable Selection In Nonparametric And Semiparametric Regression Models, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter reviews the literature on variable selection in nonparametric and semiparametric regression models via shrinkage. We highlight recent developments on simultaneous variable selection and estimation through the methods of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) or their variants, but restrict our attention to nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. In particular, we consider variable selection in additive models, partially linear models, functional/varying coefficient models, single index models, general nonparametric regression models, and semiparametric/nonparametric quantile regression models.


Bayesian Estimation Of Panel Data Fractional Response Models With Endogeneity: An Application To Standardized Test Rates, Lawrence Kessler Jan 2013

Bayesian Estimation Of Panel Data Fractional Response Models With Endogeneity: An Application To Standardized Test Rates, Lawrence Kessler

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In this paper I propose Bayesian estimation of a nonlinear panel data model with a fractional dependent variable (bounded between 0 and 1). Specifically, I estimate a panel data fractional probit model which takes into account the bounded nature of the fractional response variable. I outline estimation under the assumption of strict exogeneity as well as when allowing for potential endogeneity. Furthermore, I illustrate how transitioning from the strictly exogenous case to the case of endogeneity only requires slight adjustments. For comparative purposes I also estimate linear specifications of these models and show how quantities of interest such as marginal …


The Positive Illusory Bias And Adhd Symptoms: A New Measurement Approach, Sarah A. Fefer Jan 2013

The Positive Illusory Bias And Adhd Symptoms: A New Measurement Approach, Sarah A. Fefer

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of academic and social competence among adolescents with a continuum of inattentive and hyperactive/impulsive symptoms. Past literature suggests that children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) display self-perceptions that are overly positive compared to external indicators of competence, a phenomenon that is referred to as the positive illusory bias (PIB; Owens, Goldfine, Evangelista, Hoza, & Kaiser, 2007). The PIB is well supported among children with ADHD, and recent research suggests that the PIB persists into adolescence. To date, research on the PIB has relied on difference scores (i.e., an indicator of competence is …


Measuring Technical Efficiency Of The Japanese Professional Football (Soccer) League (J1 And J2), Dan Zhao Jan 2013

Measuring Technical Efficiency Of The Japanese Professional Football (Soccer) League (J1 And J2), Dan Zhao

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This is the first paper to measure the efficiency of the Japan Professional Football League clubs both the first and the second divisions. In Chapter 1, a non-parametric method Data Envelopment Development (DEA) is used and the data covers six seasons from 2005 to 2010. The input variables are payroll, cost besides payroll, and total assets. The output variables are attendance, revenue, and points awarded. I use different output combinations in order to check the sensitivity of the efficiency of the clubs after the original composition. This is also the first research to include more than one division of the …


Analysis Of Crime Data Using Principal Component Analysis: A Case Study Of Katsina State, Shehu U. Gulumbe, Dikko H. .G., Bello Yusuf Dec 2012

Analysis Of Crime Data Using Principal Component Analysis: A Case Study Of Katsina State, Shehu U. Gulumbe, Dikko H. .G., Bello Yusuf

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper analyses Katsina State crime data which consists of the averages of eight major crimes reported to the police for the period 2006 – 2008. The crimes consist of robbery, auto theft, house and store breakings, theft/stealing, grievous hurt and wounding, murder, rape, and assault. Correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were employed to explain the correlation between the crimes and to determine the distribution of the crimes over the local government areas of the state. The result has shown a significant correlation between robbery, theft and vehicle theft. While MSW local government area has the lowest crime …


Inflation And Economic Growth In Nigeria: Detecting The Threshold Level, Sani I. Doguwa Dec 2012

Inflation And Economic Growth In Nigeria: Detecting The Threshold Level, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper re-examines the issue of the existence and the level of inflation threshold in the relationship between inflation and growth in Nigeria, using three different approaches that provide appropriate procedures for estimating the threshold level and inference. While Sarel’s (1996) approach provides a threshold point estimate of 9.9 per cent that was not well identified by the data, the technique of Khan and Senhadji (2001) identifies a 10.5 per cent inflation threshold as statistically significant to explain the inflation-growth nexus in Nigeria. Also, the approach of Drukker et al (2005) suggests a two threshold point model with 11.2 and …


On The Development Of Residential Property Price Indices For Nigeria, Olowofeso E. Olorunsola, Abiodun S. Bada, Mohammed A. Bamanga Dec 2012

On The Development Of Residential Property Price Indices For Nigeria, Olowofeso E. Olorunsola, Abiodun S. Bada, Mohammed A. Bamanga

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work focuses on the development of house price indices for Nigeria, and the estimates of the Nigerian Residential Property Price Indices on housing characteristics are presented. Four main methods of index construction were considered, these are hedonic regression, repeat-sales, stratification and central price tendency methods. It was discovered that econometric methods like hedonic and repeat sales were constraints in constructing residential property price indices for Nigeria by the nature of the data available. Hence, the central price tendency and the sale-based stratification methods which are internationally used measures were applied to the available zonal-level dataset from a survey of …


Understanding The Dynamics Of Inflation Volatility In Nigeria: A Garch Perspective, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani I. Doguwa Dec 2012

Understanding The Dynamics Of Inflation Volatility In Nigeria: A Garch Perspective, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The estimation of inflation volatility is important to Central Banks as it guides their policy initiatives for achieving and maintaining price stability. This paper employs three models from the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family with a view to providing a parsimonious approximation to the dynamics of Nigeria’s inflation volatility between 1996 and 2011. Of the competing models, the asymmetric TGARCH (1,1) provides an appropriate paradigm for explaining the dynamics of headline and core CPI volatilities in Nigeria, while the symmetric GARCH (1,1) was found to be adequate for food CPI. The results are quite revealing. Firstly, model outcomes indicate …


Selection Of Mixed Sampling Plan With Qss-1(N; CN, CT) Plan As Attribute Plan Indexed Through Mapd And Lql, R. Sampath Kumar, M. Indra, R. Radhakrishnan Nov 2012

Selection Of Mixed Sampling Plan With Qss-1(N; CN, CT) Plan As Attribute Plan Indexed Through Mapd And Lql, R. Sampath Kumar, M. Indra, R. Radhakrishnan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A procedure for the construction and selection of the mixed sampling plan using MAPD as a quality standard with the QSS-1 (n; cN, cT) plan as an attribute plan is presented. The plans indexed through MAPD and LQL are constructed and compared for efficiency. Tables are provided for selection of an appropriate sampling plan.


On Some Negative Integer Moments Of Quasi-Negative-Binomial Distribution, Anwar Hassan, Sheikh Bilal Nov 2012

On Some Negative Integer Moments Of Quasi-Negative-Binomial Distribution, Anwar Hassan, Sheikh Bilal

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Negative integer moments of the quasi-negative-binomial distribution (QNBD) are investigated. This distribution includes recurrence relations which are helpful in the solution of many applied statistical problems, particularly in life testing and survey sampling, where ratio estimators are useful. Results study show the negative-binomial distribution when the parameter θ2 is zero and also indicate the mean of the QNBD model when its parameters are changed.


On Some Properties And Estimation Of Size-Biased Polya-Eggenberger Distribution, Anwar Hassan, Sheikh Bilal, Imtiyaz Ahmad Shah Nov 2012

On Some Properties And Estimation Of Size-Biased Polya-Eggenberger Distribution, Anwar Hassan, Sheikh Bilal, Imtiyaz Ahmad Shah

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A size-biased version of Polya-Eggenberger distribution is introduced explicitly and by a mixture model. The proposed distribution is unimodal with positive integer moments. The recurrence relation between moments (about the origin) of the proposed distribution is established and its relationship with other distributions is discussed. Different estimation techniques are proposed to estimate the parameters of the distribution.


Regression Split By Levels Of The Dependent Variable, Stan Lipovetsky Nov 2012

Regression Split By Levels Of The Dependent Variable, Stan Lipovetsky

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Multiple regression coefficients split by the levels of the dependent variable are examined. The decomposition of the coefficients can be defined by points on the ordinal scale or by levels in the numerical response using the Gifi system of binary variables. This approach permits consideration of specific values of the coefficients at each layer of the response variable. Numerical results illustrate how to identify levels of interpretable regression coefficients.


Extreme Value Charts And Analysis Of Means (Anom) Based On The Log Logistic Distribution, B. Srinivasa Rao, J. Pratapa Reddy, G. Sarath Babu Nov 2012

Extreme Value Charts And Analysis Of Means (Anom) Based On The Log Logistic Distribution, B. Srinivasa Rao, J. Pratapa Reddy, G. Sarath Babu

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A probability model of a quality characteristic is assumed to follow a log logistic distribution. This article proposes variable control charts, termed extreme value charts, based on the extreme values of each subgroup. The control chart constants depend on the probability model of the extreme order statistics and the size of each subgroup. The analysis of means (ANOM) technique for a skewed population is applied with respect to log logistic distribution. Results are illustrated using examples based on real data.


Examining Growth With Statistical Shape Analysis And Comparison Of Growth Models, Deniz Sigirli, Ilker Ercan Nov 2012

Examining Growth With Statistical Shape Analysis And Comparison Of Growth Models, Deniz Sigirli, Ilker Ercan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Growth curves have been widely used in the fields of biology, zoology and medicine for assessing some measurable trait of an organism, such as height, weight, area or volume. In statistical shape analysis, a size measure is obtained using the geometrical information of an object as opposed to linear measurements. The performances of commonly used non-linear growth curves are compared by using centroid size as a size measure in a simulation study. An example is provided on the relationship between centroid size of the cerebellum and disease duration in multiple sclerosis patients.


Examining Multiple Comparison Procedures According To Error Rate, Power Type And False Discovery Rate, Guven Ozkaya, Ilker Ercan Nov 2012

Examining Multiple Comparison Procedures According To Error Rate, Power Type And False Discovery Rate, Guven Ozkaya, Ilker Ercan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Examining pairwise differences between means is a common practice of applied researchers, and the selection of an appropriate multiple comparison procedure (MCP) is important for analyzing pairwise comparisons. This study examines the performance of MCPs under the assumption of homogeneity of variances for various numbers of groups with equal and unequal sample sizes via a simulation study. MCPs are compared according to type I error rate, power type and false discovery rate (FDR). Results show that the LSD and Duncan procedures have high error rates and Scheffe’s procedure has low power; no remarkable differences between the other procedures considered were …


Class(Es) Of Factor-Type Estimator(S) In Presence Of Measurement Error, Diwakar Shukla, Sharad Pathak, Narendra Singh Thakur Nov 2012

Class(Es) Of Factor-Type Estimator(S) In Presence Of Measurement Error, Diwakar Shukla, Sharad Pathak, Narendra Singh Thakur

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

When data is collected via sample survey it is assumed whatever is reported by a respondent is correct. However, given the issues of prestige bias, personal respect and honor, respondents’ self-reported data often produces over- or under- estimated values as opposed to true values regarding the variables under question. This causes measurement error to be present in sample values. This article considers the factortype estimator as an estimation tool and examines its performance under a measurement error model. Expressions of optimization are derived and theoretical results are supported by numerical examples.


Exact Logistic Regression For A Matched Pairs Case-Control Design With Polytomous Exposure Variables, Shyam S. Ganguly Nov 2012

Exact Logistic Regression For A Matched Pairs Case-Control Design With Polytomous Exposure Variables, Shyam S. Ganguly

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Logistic regression methods are useful in estimating odds ratios under matched pairs case-control designs when the exposure variable of interest is binary or polytomous in nature. Analysis is typically performed using large sample approximation techniques. When conducting the analysis with polytomous exposure variable, situations where the numbers of discordant pairs in the resulting cells are small or the data structure is sparse can be encountered. In such situations, the asymptotic method of analysis is questionable, thus an exact method of analysis may be more suitable. A method is presented that performs exact inference in the case of pair-wise matched case-control …


Modified Edf Goodness Of Fit Tests For Logistic Distribution Under Srs And Rss, S. A. Al-Subh, M. T. Alodat, Kamaruzaman Ibrahim, Abdul Aziz Jemain Nov 2012

Modified Edf Goodness Of Fit Tests For Logistic Distribution Under Srs And Rss, S. A. Al-Subh, M. T. Alodat, Kamaruzaman Ibrahim, Abdul Aziz Jemain

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Modified forms of goodness of fit tests are presented for the logistic distribution using statistics based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). A method to improve the power of the modified EDF goodness of fit tests is introduced based on Ranked Set sampling (RSS). Data are collected via the Ranked Set Sampling (RSS) technique (McIntyre, 1952). Critical values for the logistic distribution with unknown parameters are provided and the powers of the tests are given for a number of alternative distributions. A simulation study is presented to illustrate the power of the new method.


Small-To-Medium Enterprises And Economic Growth: A Comparative Study Of Clustering Techniques, Karim K. Mardaneh Nov 2012

Small-To-Medium Enterprises And Economic Growth: A Comparative Study Of Clustering Techniques, Karim K. Mardaneh

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) in regional (non-metropolitan) areas are considered when economic planning may require large data sets and sophisticated clustering techniques. The economic growth of regional areas was investigated using four clustering algorithms. Empirical analysis demonstrated that the modified global k-means algorithm outperformed other algorithms.


Posterior Estimates Of Poisson Distribution Using R Software, Raja Sultan, S.P. Ahmad Nov 2012

Posterior Estimates Of Poisson Distribution Using R Software, Raja Sultan, S.P. Ahmad

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Bayesian estimation of unknown parameter of the Poisson distribution is examined under different priors. The posterior distributions for the unknown parameter of the Poisson distribution are derived using the following priors: uniform, Jeffrey’s, Gamma distribution, Gamma-Chi-square distribution, Gammaexponential distribution and Chi-square-exponential distribution. Numerical and graphical illustrations of the posterior densities of the parameters of interest were conducted using R Software.


Weighted Cook-Johnson Copula And Their Characterizations: Application To Probably Modeling Of The Hot Spring Eruptions, Hakim Bekrizadeh, Gholam Ali Parham, Mohamd Reza Zadkarmi Nov 2012

Weighted Cook-Johnson Copula And Their Characterizations: Application To Probably Modeling Of The Hot Spring Eruptions, Hakim Bekrizadeh, Gholam Ali Parham, Mohamd Reza Zadkarmi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Copulas have emerged as a practical method for multivariate modeling. A limited amount of work has been conducted regarding the application of copula-based modeling in context analysis. This study generalizes the Cook-Johnson copula under the appropriate weighted function and provides examples and the properties of the generalized Cook-Johnson copula. Results show that the generalized Cook-Johnson copula is suitable for probable modeling of hot spring eruption.


Comparing Two Independent Groups Via A Quantile Generalization Of The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Test, Rand R. Wilcox Nov 2012

Comparing Two Independent Groups Via A Quantile Generalization Of The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney Test, Rand R. Wilcox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, as well as modern improvements, are based in part on an estimate of p = P(D < 0), where D = X−Y and X and Y are independent random variables; a common goal is to test H0: p = 0.5. This corresponds to testing H0: ξ0.5, where ξ0.5 is the 0.5 quantile of the distribution of D. If the distributions associated with X and Y do not differ, then D has a symmetric distribution about zero. In particular, ξq + ξ1-q = 0 for any q ≤ 0.5, where ξq is the qth quantile. Methods aimed at testing H0: p = 0.5 are generalized by …


Single Sampling Plans For Variables Indexed By Aql And Aoql With Measurement Error, R. Sankle, J.R. Singh Nov 2012

Single Sampling Plans For Variables Indexed By Aql And Aoql With Measurement Error, R. Sankle, J.R. Singh

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Single sampling plans are investigated for variables indexed by acceptable quality level (AQL) and average outgoing quality limit (AOQL) under measurement error. Procedures and tables are provided for selection of single sampling plans for variables for given AQL and AOQL when rejected lots are 100% inspected for replacement of a nonconforming unit. For a particular sampling plan in operation for an observed measurement, a method for determining true operating characteristic (OC) functions and average outgoing quality (AOQ) is described for various error sizes.


An Extension Of Cochran-Orcutt Procedure For Generalized Linear Regression Models With Periodically Correlated Errors, Abdullah A. Smadi, Nour H. Abu-Afouna Nov 2012

An Extension Of Cochran-Orcutt Procedure For Generalized Linear Regression Models With Periodically Correlated Errors, Abdullah A. Smadi, Nour H. Abu-Afouna

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

An important assumption of ordinary regression models is independence among errors. This research considers the case of periodically correlated errors following the periodic AR model of order 1 (PAR(1)). The remedial measure for correlated errors in regression known as the Cochran-Orcutt procedure is generalized to the case of periodically correlated errors. The motivation for making such generalizations is that the response data may inhibit some seasonality, which may not be captured by the traditional AR(1) autoregressive model. The proposed procedure is described and the bias and MSE of the resulting intercept and slope parameter estimates of the simple LR model …