Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Mid-Morning Break And Poster Sessions: Survey Of Internet User’S Intentions About Gambling On A Legal Online Site, Emilie Vezina, Serge Sevigny, Christian Jacques, Isabelle Beaudoin, Isabelle Giroux

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

While many governments are considering the option of legalizing online gambling, mental health professionals and public health advocates worry that it will increase the number of problem gamblers. Results of the survey show that 3% of the sample, composed of 1009 Internet users, intended to gamble real money on the new online legal site, 6% would gamble without money, and 5% would visit the new site without gambling. Nearly 45% of those who intended to visit the legal gambling site were Internet non-gamblers in the last year. Half of online gamblers intended to gamble on the new legal site. Also, …

Mid-Morning Break And Poster Sessions: Family Gambling And Its Connection To Intergenerational Family Relationship Building, Melissa M. Sleightholm, Joan E. Norris, Joseph Tindale

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

Most research has viewed gambling as an individual activity and very little research has been devoted to the impacts of family gambling.

Bengtson and Roberts (1991) viewed intergenerational family solidarity as a comprehensive construct consisting of six components of solidarity. Affectual, Associational, and Functional solidarities, can be adapted to a gambling context.

The three family solidarity dimensions of affection, association, and function are the core components to family solidarity (Hogerbrugge & Komter, 2012).

Session 2-1-E: Betting Market Efficiency Implications Of Different Structures: Bookmakers Vs. Exchanges, David Mcdonald, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie Johnson Professor, John Peirson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Outline

(i) Quick definition of market efficiency

(ii) Theoretical models lead to general predictions…

(iii) ...which lead to specific predictions about betting markets

(iv) Results of testing the predictions using real betting market data

(v) Implications and conclusion

Session 2-1-A: A Longitudinal Study Of Alberta Electronic Machine Gamblers, Garry Smith, Nady El-Guebaly, David Casey, David Hodgins, Rob Williams, Don Schopflocher

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Outline of the LLLP

What is the LLLP?

Launched in 2006 the LLLP is a five age cohort, four data collection wave longitudinal study that examines the incidence and determinants of gambling and problem gambling. The study was guided by four broad research questions:

1.What are the normal patterns of continuity and discontinuity in gambling and problem gambling behavior?

2.What bio-psychological variables and behavior patterns are most predictive of current and future responsible and problem gambling?

3.Are there distinct sub-groupings of gamblers and problem gamblers with different trajectories and predictors?

4.What etiological model of problem gambling is best supported by …

Session 2-1-E: Toward An Understanding Of Price Movements In Betting Markets: Profitable Trading Against The Herd, Johnnie E.V. Johnson, Ming-Chien Sung, David C.J. Mcdonald

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Markets for speculative assets always fully incorporate relevant information in prices

Herding

Participants neglect private info, adjust actionsmore representative of previous price movements

Effect

Price volatility in excess of variations in fundament d informationBubbles, crashes and bank runs

Session 2-1-B: Gaming Regulators Africa, Linda E. De Vries

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary school education

Goal 3: Promote gender equity and empower women

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Goal 5: Stimulate entrepreneurship (SMME; development)

Session 2-1-B: A Mandate For Business Leadership: The Case Of Regulated Gambling In South Africa, Linda E. De Vries

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

South African agenda - shaped by developmental agenda

Comply with global movement on environmental issues

Global Economic melt down

Political wide spread change – 1994-2013

Strong philosophical orientation i.e. cost/benefit vs. tangible /intangible costs/benefits consumption model (De Vries- 1991)

Caution on becoming a gambling dependant nation

Purpose to legalise but not aggressive - consumption model (NGB Act 1996 /amended NGB Act 2004)

Private enterprise be allowed within tight regulatory framework

National lottery- good causes - aggressive –state benefit (NLB Act 2001) Normalisation of society with shift in priorities of the democracy

New formulations of Economic black EMPOWERMENT such as BRICS …

Session 2-1-C: Gambling Distortions And The Brain Reward System, Luke Clark

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Impulsive choice in PG as possible index of vmPFC dysfunction

Functional imaging of gambling near-misses

Gambling distortions following brain injury (ventromedial PFC vs insula damage)

Session 1-4-A: Results From The Swedish Longitudinal Gambling Study (Swelogs): Changes Between 1998, 2009, And 2010, Ula Romild, Jessika Svensson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Public Health Objectives

1. The overarching aim of Sweden’s national public health policy is to create social conditions that will ensure good health, on equal terms for the entire population.

2. The aim for society’s measures against problem gambling is to reduce harm from exaggerated gambling.

Session 1-4-D: Leading Together: The Evolution Of Responsible Gambling In Canada, Jim Engel, Paul Pellizzari, Paul W. Smith

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Agenda

Background: Gambling in Canada
Responsible Gambling Framework
The notion of “player sustainability”
Video Lottery Terminals (VLTs)
Internet gambling
Branding RG
Data analytics
Voluntary Self-Exclusion
RG Standards
Leading together: collaboration across jurisdictions

Session 1-4-A: Comparing Longitudinal Studies Of Gambling: Methods & Findin, Rachel A. Volberg

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

What do we know about risk factors for PG?

Vast majority of research carried out on PG risk factors has involved cross-sectional surveys

PG status at a single point in time statistically correlated with behaviors & characteristics assessed at the same time

Cannot resolve the “chicken and egg” problem

• Does PG precede other disorders?
• Do other disorders precede PG?
• Or does one underlying condition account for both?

Session 1-4-A: Pathways Of Gambling Problem Severity: Follow-Up From A General Population Survey, Sylvia Kairouz, Christelle Luce

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Study objectives

Describe trajectories of change in gambling patterns and problems among a cohort of gamblers;

Model change over time based on life events.

Session 1-4-B: Gambling And Marijuana Use In The Netherlands: Is Legalization The Best Tool For Dealing With "Naughty Habits?", William N. Thompson, Laura K. Thompson

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In 1976, the Netherlands embraced two policy initiatives which encompassed similar objectives. The policies sought to control “undesired substances” via the process of legalization. One legalization process involved casino gambling. The policies have sometimes led to desired results (the right road), while at other times they have led to undesirable results (the wrong road). Now in 2013, without an observable crossroad or even fork in the road, The Netherlands is poised to deviate from a right road to travel down a wrong road by placing rather severe restrictions upon the operations of “Coffee Houses” which have been “serving” customers measured …

Session 1-3-E: Hitting The Sweet Spot: Lottery Promotion And Vulnerability, Elisabeth Papineau, Jean-François Biron, Fanny Lemetayer, Amadou Barry

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Literature about lottery marketing and vulnerability

Lottery advertising in Quebec

Project phases

Results

Conclusion

Session 1-3-F: The Victorian Gambling Study Identifying And Predicting Risks, Rosa Billi

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Overview

Background

Study design

• Incidence
• Transitions
• Risk & protective
• Co morbidities

Session 1-2-F: Sports As An Alternative Asset Class: Gambling As An Investment, Brendan Poots

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Genesis of the idea came in 2007 in NYC when studying at Columbia. The trading of sports utilising strategies and other traditional financial market practices was identified as a burgeoning opportunity.

Towards the end of 2007 a private Fund with owner’s capital was started.

Global Financial Crisis in 2008 – all asset classes lost value. Diversification did not work. The Olympics, the Superbowl, the World Series and all the Grand Slam tennis and golf tournaments went ahead unaffected.

Priomha Capital Sports Hedge Fund Founded in 2010

Global HQ – Melbourne

Trading office – London & Las Vegas (2014)

Priomha Capital …

Session 1-2-F: Rationality And Risk Intelligence In Binary Betting, Raph Di Guisto, Aaron C. Brown, Nick Maughan

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

We analyze 1.6 million binary bets on financial markets totaling $600 million in stakes, placed by 21,000 bettors at a large Internet betting site. The data set is unusually large and complete, plus has one additional important advantage: we can obtain objective independent estimates of the ex ante probability of winning each bet, using data from financial markets. This allows us to distinguish bettor profit due to superior prediction of financial events from bettor profit due to exploiting ex ante favorable odds situations. We focus on the degree or type of skill possessed by bettors (if any), and the amount …

Session 1-2-A: A Comparison Of Outcome Efficacy Between Residential And Intensive Outpatient Treatment For Disordered Gambling As Measured By Gamtoms, Reece Middleton

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Conclusions

Whereas, it is apparent that each of the Programs is clearly efficacious, as evidenced by major improvements in all evaluated life areas for clients of both, it seems that Residential Treatment, for those able to accomplish it, would have the Advantage. It is further indicated that continued involvement in recovery-oriented activity, such as, Aftercare and 12-Step Programs produces sought-after results for all participants.

Session 1-2-A: Building, Maintaining And Evaluating A Statewide Treatment Program For Problem Gambling, Timothy W. Fong

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Shows how to build, maintain and evaluate programs for problem gambling

Program: The 15th International Conference On Gambling & Risk Taking, University Of Nevada, Las Vegas, University Of Nevada, Reno

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Listing of presentations, events, and sponsors

An Alternative Approach To Reduce Dimensionality In Data Envelopment Analysis, Grace Lee Ching Yap, Wan Rosmanira Ismail, Zaidi Isa

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Principal component analysis reduces dimensionality; however, uncorrelated components imply the existence of variables with weights of opposite signs. This complicates the application in data envelopment analysis. To overcome problems due to signs, a modification to the component axes is proposed and was verified using Monte Carlo simulations.

Robustness Of Dewma Versus Ewma Control Charts To Non-Normal Processes, Saad Saeed Alkahtani

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and double EWMA (DEWMA) control charts were designed under the normality assumption. This study considers various skewed (Gamma) and symmetric non-normal (t) distributions to examine the effect of non-normality on the average run length (ARL) performance of EWMA and DEWMA. ARL performances were investigated and compared using Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that DEWMA charts can be designed to be robust to non-normality, that the ARL performances of EWMA and DEWMA charts were more robust to t distributions and DEWMA was more robust to non-normality for larger values of the smoothing parameter.

An Approximate Approach To The Economic Design Of X̅ Charts By Considering The Cost Of Quality, M. A. A. Cox

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The selection of three parameters {h,k,n} is necessary to design a x̅ control chart. A cost model employing a Burr distribution is examined. Previously employed methods are refined and extended. A series of approximations are proposed that enable a rapid parameter selection. It is hoped that reducing the computational complexity of previous approaches will lead to wider utilization of x̅ control charts.

Modeling And Handling Overdispersion Health Science Data With Zero-Inflated Poisson Model, Nur Syabiha Binti Zafakali, Wan Muhamad Amir Bin W Ahmad

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Health sciences research often involves analyses of repeated measurement or longitudinal count data analyses that exhibit excess zeros. Overdispersion occurs when count data measurements have greater variability than allowed. This phenomenon can be carried over to zero-inflated count data modeling. Referred to as zero-inflation, the Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model can be used to model such data. The Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) model is used to account for overdispersion detected in count data. The ZINB model is considered as an alternative for the Zero-Inflated Generalized Poisson (ZIGP) model for zero-inflated overdispersed count data. Consequently, zero-inflated models have been proposed for the …

A Note On Α-Curvature Of The Manifolds Of The Length-Biased Lognormal And Gamma Distributions In View Of Related Applications In Data Analysis, Makarand V. Ratnaparkhi, Uttara V. Naik-Nimbalkar

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The α-curvature tensors of the statistical manifolds of the length-biased versions of the log-normal and gamma distributions are derived and discussed. This study was designed to investigate observations related to the parameter estimation for the length-biased lognormal distribution as a model for the lengthbiased data from oil field exploration.

The Probit Link Function In Generalized Linear Models For Data Mining Applications, Mehdi Razzaghi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The use of logistic regression for outcome classification of dichotomous variables is well known in data mining applications. The estimated probability of the logit transformation belongs to the class of canonical link functions that follow from particular probability distribution functions. A closely related model is the probit link which can be used for binary responses. Although the probit link is not canonical, in some cases the overall fit of the model can be improved by using non-canonical link functions. This article reviews the properties of the probit link function and discusses its applications in data mining problems. Contrasts and comparisons …

Parameter Estimation Of A Class Of Hidden Markov Model With Diagnostics, E. B. Nkemnole, O. Abass, R. A. Kasumu

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A stochastic volatility (SV) problem is formulated as a state space form of a Hidden Markov model (HMM). The SV model assumes that the distribution of asset returns conditional on the latent volatility is normal. This article analyzes the SV model with the student-t distribution and the generalized error distribution (GED) and compares these distributions with a mixture of normal distributions from Kim and Stoffer (2008). A Sequential Monte Carlo with Expectation Maximization (SMCEM) algorithm technique was used to estimate parameters for the extended volatility model; the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and forecast statistics were calculated to compare distribution fit. …

Estimation And Testing In Type I Generalized Half Logistic Distribution, R. R. L. Kantam, V. Ramakrishna, M. S. Ravikumar

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A generalization of the half logistic distribution is developed through exponentiation of its cumulative distribution function and termed the Type I Generalized Half Logistic Distribution (GHLD). GHLD’s distributional characteristics and parameter estimation using maximum likelihood and modified maximum likelihood methods are presented with comparisons. Comparison of Type I GHLD and the exponential distribution is conducted via likelihood ratio criterion.

P-Values Versus Significance Levels, Phillip I. Good

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In this article Phillip Good responds to Richard Anderson's article Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p Value and the Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing.

Randomization Test P-Values Versus Significance Levels, Bryan Manly

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Bryan Manly responds to Richard Anderson's article Conceptual Distinction between the Critical p Value and the Type I Error Rate in Permutation Testing.