Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Multicollinearity And A Ridge Parameter Estimation Approach, Ghadban Khalaf, Mohamed Iguernane

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

One of the main goals of the multiple linear regression model, Y = Xβ + u, is to assess the importance of independent variables in determining their predictive ability. However, in practical applications, inference about the coefficients of regression can be difficult because the independent variables are correlated and multicollinearity causes instability in the coefficients. A new estimator of ridge regression parameter is proposed and evaluated by simulation techniques in terms of mean squares error (MSE). Results of the simulation study indicate that the suggested estimator dominates ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator and other ridge estimators with respect to …

Estimation Of Parameters Of Misclassified Size Biased Borel Distribution, Bhaktida S. Trivedi, M. N. Patel

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A misclassified size-biased Borel Distribution (MSBBD), where some of the observations corresponding to x = c + 1 are wrongly reported as x = c with probability α, is defined. Various estimation methods like the method of maximum likelihood (ML), method of moments, and the Bayes estimation for the parameters of the MSBB distribution are used. The performance of the estimators are studied using simulated bias and simulated risk. Simulation studies are carried out for different values of the parameters and sample size.

Developing Bayesian-Based Confidence Bounds For Non-Identically Distributed Observations Using The Lyapunov Condition, Garry M. Jacyna, Scott L. Rosen

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The purpose of this paper is to establish a direct method for assessing the confidence in the detection and identification probabilities for segmented observations that are not identically distributed across assigned segments within a region. This paper arrives at easily computable confidence intervals by showing through mathematical analysis that:

I. The probability of successful detection within each test segment can be characterized by a Beta distribution;
II. The distribution of a weighted sum of independent but non-identically distributed sample means is asymptotically Normally distributed by the Lyapunov variant of the Central Limit Theorem, i.e., the approximation improves as the number …

Jmasm40: Monte Carlo Simulations For Structural Equation Modelling (Revolution R), Sarah A. Rose, Barry Markman

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Revolution R code is presented to setup Structural Equation Model (SEM) for a Monte Carlo study. The example is a comparison of different fit indices.

Reflections Concerning Recent Ban On Nhst And Confidence Intervals, Grayson L. Baird, Sunny R. Duerr

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

This letter addresses some of the immediate consequences of Basic and Applied Social Psychology’s (BASP) ban on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and confidence intervals. The letter concludes with three suggestions to improve research in general.

A New Test For Correlation On Bivariate Nonnormal Distributions, Ping Wang, Ping Sa

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A new method to conduct a right-tailed test for the correlation on bivariate non-normal distribution is proposed. The comparative simulation study shows that the new test controls the type I error rates well for all the distributions considered. An investigation of the power performance is also provided.

Jmasm42: An Alternative Algorithm And Programming Implementation For Least Absolute Deviation Estimator Of The Linear Regression Models (R), Suraju Olaniyi Ogundele, J. I. Mbegbu, C. R. Nwosu

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

We propose a least absolute deviation estimation method that produced a least absolute deviation estimator of parameter of the linear regression model. The method is as accurate as existing method.

Stationary Points For Parametric Stochastic Frontier Models, William C. Horrace, Ian A. Wright

Center for Policy Research

The results of Waldman (1982) on the Normal-Half Normal stochastic frontier model are generalized using the theory of the Dirac delta (Dirac, 1930), and distribution-free conditions are established to ensure a stationary point in the likelihood as the variance of the inefficiency distribution goes to zero. Stability of the stationary point and "wrong skew" results are derived or simulated for common parametric assumptions on the model. Identification is discussed.

Measurement Invariance And Psychometric Properties Of Career Indecision Profile-65 Scores: College Student And Non-College Samples, Casey J. Zobell

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis reports the results of a study conducted to examine psychometric properties of Career Indecision Profile-65 scores, including measurement invariance between college student and non-college samples. The responses of 529 college students and 472 non-college students to an online survey revealed that a four-factor structure fit the data in both samples well. Metric invariance was not supported. Six-week test-retest reliability was found to be high, and in the expected range. The tendency to maximize was found to be correlated strongly with one of the four factors. This study furthered the psychometric research for the Career Indecision Profile-65 and found …

Multiple Imputation Of Missing Data In Structural Equation Models With Mediators And Moderators Using Gradient Boosted Machine Learning, Robert J. Milletich Ii

Psychology Theses & Dissertations

Mediation and moderated mediation models are two commonly used models for indirect effects analysis. In practice, missing data is a pervasive problem in structural equation modeling with psychological data. Multiple imputation (MI) is one method used to estimate model parameters in the presence of missing data, while accounting for uncertainty due to the missing data. Unfortunately, commonly used MI methods are not equipped to handle categorical variables or nonlinear variables such as interactions. In this study, we introduce a general MI framework that uses the Bayesian bootstrap (BB) method to generate posterior inferences for indirect effects and gradient boosted machine …

A Statistical Approach To Characterize And Detect Degradation Within The Barabasi-Albert Network, Mohd-Fairul Mohd-Zaid

Theses and Dissertations

Social Network Analysis (SNA) is widely used by the intelligence community when analyzing the relationships between individuals within groups of interest. Hence, any tools that can be quantitatively shown to help improve the analyses are advantageous for the intelligence community. To date, there have been no methods developed to characterize a real world network as a Barabasi-Albert network which is a type of network with properties contained in many real-world networks. In this research, two newly developed statistical tests using the degree distribution and the L-moments of the degree distribution are proposed with application to classifying networks and detecting degradation …

Variation Of Driving Skill Among Elderly Drivers Compared To Young Drivers In Japan, Indri Hapsari Susilowati, Akira Yasukouchi

Kesmas

Penelitian ini menganalisis kemampuan mengemudi pada pengemudi lanjut usia (lansia) dibandingkan dengan usia muda di Jepang dan melihat keterampilan mengemudi yang kurang sehingga dapat memengaruhi risiko kecelakaan di jalan raya. Subjek penelitian adalah pengemudi usia muda dan lansia, terdiri dari 10 mahasiswa (20 - 24 tahun) dan 25 pengemudi lansia (14 laki-laki dan 11 perempuan) berasal dari The Silver Menpower Center, organisasi bagi lansia > 60 tahun. Pengemudi lansia dibagi menjadi dua kelompok, yaitu lansia 1 berusia 60 - 65 tahun (10 orang) dan lansia 2 berusia > 65 tahun (15 orang). Kemampuan mengemudi dievaluasi dengan simulator permainan mengemudi dalam laboratorium. Analisis …

Rural-Based Health Promotion Model For Pregnant Women In Banyumas District, Elviera Gamelia, Dian Anandari, Dyah Umiyarni Purnamasari

Kesmas

Penelitian sebelumnya menunjukkan bahwa pengetahuan pelayanan prenatal di wilayah pedesaan masih rendah yang berdampak pada perilaku buruk sehingga mengembangkan model promosi kesehatan dibutuhkan untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan prenatal, sikap dan perilaku. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model promosi kesehatan pelayanan prenatal di wilayah pedesaan berdasarkan penilaian kebutuhan. Penelitian dilakukan pada Juni 2015 dengan pendekatan kualitatif melibatkan 16 ibu hamil pertama di trimester ketiga dengan kehamilan berisiko sebagai informan kunci dan 16 anggota keluarga yang tinggal bersama ibu hamil dan mengetahui kehidupan sehari-harinya, 27 bidan dan 3 tokoh agama sebagai informan tambahan. Teknik pengumpulan data adalah wawancara mendalam dan observasi untuk ibu …

Well Water Consumed And Urolithiasis In Gedangsari Subdistrict, Yogyakarta, Sulistyawati Sulistyawati, Fardhiasih Dwi Astuti, Ruri Trisasri, Asep Rustiawan

Kesmas

Tanah di wilayah Kecamatan Gedangsari mengandung batuan kapur. Masyarakat di daerah ini banyak yang mengkonsumsi air minum dari sumur gali yang mengandung kadar kalsium tinggi, dan banyak yang menderita urolithiasis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan gambaran distribusi kalsium atau Ca(OH)2 pada air sumur dan menjelaskan hubungannya dengan kejadian urolithiasis. Penelitian dilakukan di Kecamatan Gedangsari, Kabupaten Gunungkidul selama Juli sampai November 2013. Penelitian dilakukan secara potong lintang dengan konfirmasi uji titrasi di laboratorium. Sejumlah 94 sampel sumur dipilih secara acak dari populasi 3.849 sumur. Kriteria pemilihan sampel adalah sumur gali yang telah digunakan untuk minum oleh penduduk berusia lebih dari 30 …

Identification Of Pathogenic Leptospira In Rat And Shrew Populations Using Rpob Gene And Its Spatial Distribution In Boyolali District, Dyah Widiastuti, Zumrotus Sholichah, Agustiningsih Agustiningsih, Nastiti Wijayanti

Kesmas

Leptospirosis merupakan masalah kesehatan di Indonesia. Hingga April 2014, dilaporkan kasus leptospirosis yang ditularkan oleh tikus di Kabupaten Boyolali dengan angka kematian 83,3%. Genus Leptospira terdiri dari ratusan serovar dan tipe genetik yang hidup di pelbagai jenis habitat. Pengelompokan spesies Leptospira berdasarkan gen rpoB dapat digunakan karena tingkat polimorfisme gen tersebut tinggi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi serovar bakteri Leptospira pada populasi tikus di Kabupaten Boyolali menggunakan analisis hubungan kekerabatan didasarkan pada polimorfisme gen rpoB dan menggambarkan distribusi spasial tikus positif Leptospira di Kabupaten Boyolali. Penelitian potong lintang dilaksanakan pada bulan April 2014 di Desa Sindon Kecamatan Ngemplak dan Desa …

Measles Immunization And Vitamin A For Prevention Of Pneumonia In Indonesia, Ratno Widoyo

Kesmas

Pneumonia merupakan penyebab kematian tertinggi pada anak di Indonesia setelah diare. Pengendalian pneumonia dapat dilakukan dengan peningkatan cakupan imunisasi campak, pertusis, Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn), dan Haemophilus influenzae b (Hib). Vaksin Spn dan Hib belum masuk ke dalam kategori imunisasi wajib di Indonesia. Vaksin campak lebih memiliki pengaruh langsung terhadap pneumonia dibandingkan dengan vaksin pertusis. Pemberian imunisasi yang disertai pemberian vitamin A akan meningkatkan titer antibodi pada anak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pemberian imunisasi campak dan vitamin A terhadap kejadian pneumonia. Metode penelitian adalah potong lintang dengan menggunakan 13.062 data anak yang terdapat pada data Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan …

Role Of Hearth Program With Undernutrition Incidence Among Toddlers In Tangerang City, Gizella Gizella, Dany Hilmanto, Dedi Rachmadi

Kesmas

Kelompok yang rentan terhadap gizi kurang adalah balita. World Health Organization (WHO) menyatakan kematian anak bawah lima tahun (balita) akibat gizi kurang sebesar 54% pada tahun 2002. Di Indonesia, prevalensinya mengalami peningkatan dari 17,9% pada tahun 2010 menjadi 19,6% pada tahun 2013. Di Kota Tangerang, terdapat 1,43% balita yang mengalami gizi buruk pada tahun 2013. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuktikan secara valid hubungan antara Program Pos Gizi yang meliputi perilaku pemberian makan, perilaku kebersihan balita, perilaku mencari pelayanan kesehatan dan perilaku pengasuhan balita dengan kejadian gizi kurang pada balita. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif, potong lintang, menggunakan data primer serta …

Good Corporate Governance Implementation And Performance Of Civil Servant, Muhammad Hasan, Dumilah Ayuningtyas, Misnaniarti Misnaniarti

Kesmas

Dalam rangka mencapai visi dan misi, setiap rumah sakit harus menjalankan tata kelola perusahaan yang baik (Good Corporate Governance/GCG). Penerapan GCG sendiri bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kinerja pegawai secara optimal, yang akhirnya akan meningkatkan kinerja organisasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan penerapan prinsip-prinsip GCG terhadap kinerja pegawai negeri sipil (PNS) Rumah Sakit Umum Lapangan Natuna Kabupaten Kepulauan Anambas. Jenis penelitian ini adalah deskriptif analitik dengan desain potong lintang pada 56 PNS. Pengumpulan data dilakukan pada tahun 2012 dengan kuesioner terstruktur. Digunakan analisis dengan uji kai kuadrat dan regresi logistik, dan untuk penyederhanaan model dilakukan eliminasi terhadap faktor perancu dengan menggunakan …

Environmental, Behavioral Factors And Filariasis Incidence In Bintan District, Riau Islands Province, Zainul Ikhwan, Lucky Herawati, Suharti Suharti

Kesmas

Tingkat mikrofilaria filariasis di Kabupaten Bintan masih tinggi, khususnya di Kecamatan Teluk Bintan, Teluk Sebong, dan Sri Kuala Lobam. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan faktor risiko lingkungan (faktor fisik, biologi, kimia, sosial budaya, ekonomi) dan faktor perilaku dengan kejadian filariasis. Jenis penelitian observasional analitik yang dilakukan pada Mei – September 2015 dengan desain kasus kontrol, yang terdiri dari jumlah kasus 33 orang penderita filariasis dan kontrol 65 orang bukan penderita filariasis dengan teknik cluster sampling. Populasi penelitian adalah masyarakat di Kabupaten Bintan. Data yang diperoleh dianalisis menggunakan uji kai kuadrat dan regresi logistik. Hasil menunjukkan adanya hubungan pengetahuan (nilai …

Passive Visual Analytics Of Social Media Data For Detection Of Unusual Events, Kush Rustagi, Junghoon Chae

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Now that social media sites have gained substantial traction, huge amounts of un-analyzed valuable data are being generated. Posts containing images and text have spatiotemporal data attached as well, having immense value for increasing situational awareness of local events, providing insights for investigations and understanding the extent of incidents, their severity, and consequences, as well as their time-evolving nature. However, the large volume of unstructured social media data hinders exploration and examination. To analyze such social media data, the S.M.A.R.T system provides the analyst with an interactive visual spatiotemporal analysis and spatial decision support environment that assists in evacuation planning …

The Influence Of The Electric Supply Industry On Economic Growth In Less Developed Countries, Edward Richard Bee

Dissertations

This study measures the impact that electrical outages have on manufacturing production in 135 less developed countries using stochastic frontier analysis and data from World Bank’s Investment Climate surveys. Outages of electricity, for firms with and without backup power sources, are the most frequently cited constraint on manufacturing growth in these surveys.

Outages are shown to reduce output below the production frontier by almost five percent in Africa and by a lower percentage in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. Production response to outages is quadratic in form. Outages also increase labor cost, reduce exports …

Tornado Density And Return Periods In The Southeastern United States: Communicating Risk And Vulnerability At The Regional And State Levels, Michelle Bradburn

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Tornado intensity and impacts vary drastically across space, thus spatial and statistical analyses were used to identify patterns of tornado severity in the Southeastern United States and to assess the vulnerability and estimated recurrence of tornadic activity. Records from the Storm Prediction Center's tornado database (1950-2014) were used to estimate kernel density to identify areas of high and low tornado frequency at both the regional- and state-scales. Return periods (2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, and 100-year) were calculated at both scales as well using a composite score that included EF-scale magnitude, injury counts, and fatality counts. Results showed that the …

Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of Point Patterns, Abdul-Nasah Soale

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, the basic tools of spatial statistics and time series analysis are applied to the case study of the earthquakes in a certain geographical region and time frame. Then some of the existing methods for joint analysis of time and space are described and applied. Finally, additional research questions about the spatial-temporal distribution of the earthquakes are posed and explored using statistical plots and models. The focus in the last section is in the relationship between number of events per year and maximum magnitude and its effect on how clustered the spatial distribution is and the relationship between …

Simple Tools With Nontrivial Implications For Assessment Of Hypothesis-Evidence Relationships: The Interrogator’S Fallacy, Justus R. Riek

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This paper takes a mathematical analysis technique derived from the Interrogator’s Fallacy (in a legal context), expands upon it to identify a set of three interrelated probabilistic tools with wide applicability, and demonstrates their ability to assess hypothesis-evidence relationships associated with important problems

Computational Modeling Of Facial Response For Detecting Differential Traits In Autism Spectrum Disorders, Manar D. Samad

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation proposes novel computational modeling and computer vision methods for the analysis and discovery of differential traits in subjects with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) using video and three-dimensional (3D) images of face and facial expressions. ASD is a neurodevelopmental disorder that impairs an individual’s nonverbal communication skills. This work studies ASD from the pathophysiology of facial expressions which may manifest atypical responses in the face. State-of-the-art psychophysical studies mostly employ na¨ıve human raters to visually score atypical facial responses of individuals with ASD, which may be subjective, tedious, and error prone. A few quantitative studies use intrusive sensors on …

Analysis Off Dependent Discrete Choices Using Gaussian Copula, Arjun Poddar

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

A popular tool for analyzing product choices of consumers is the well-known conditional logit discrete choice model. Originally publicized by McFadden (1974), this model assumes that the random components of the underlying latent utility functions of the consumers follow independent Gumbel distributions. However, in practice the independence assumption may be violated and a more reasonable model should account for the dependence of the utilities. In this dissertation we use the Gaussian copula with compound symmetric and autoregressive of order one correlation matrices to construct a general multivariate model for the joint distribution of the utilities. The induced correlations on the …

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

The Effects Of Age And Gender On Pedestrian Traffic Injuries: A Random Parameters And Latent Class Analysis, Tatok Raharjo Raharjo

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Pedestrians are vulnerable road users because they do not have any protection while they walk. They are unlike cyclists and motorcyclists who often have at least helmet protection and sometimes additional body protection (in the case of motorcyclists with body-armored jackets and pants). In the US, pedestrian fatalities are increasing and becoming an ever larger proportion of overall roadway fatalities (NHTSA, 2016), thus underscoring the need to study factors that influence pedestrian-injury severity and potentially develop appropriate countermeasures. One of the critical elements in the study of pedestrian-injury severities is to understand how injuries vary across age and gender ‒ …

Research On Problem Gambling Websites, Chang Boon Patrick Lee

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

This is a continuation of a series of studies on problem gambling websites. It has been noted in prior studies that one avenue problem gamblers might look for help was to go online to perform a web search. Online help is practical as help can be located immediately and this can help to ease the gamblers’ concerns that they are left alone to handle their own problems. While there are some anecdotal evidences regarding the success of problem gambling websites, there have been few empirical studies that relate directly to the perceptions and usefulness of the websites for the problem …

Optimal Strategy For Gambling Pools, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In gambling pools, entrants submit predictions and the prizes are awarded to the prediction or predictions closest to actual outcomes. Some well-known examples are football pools (both the global and American game versions), toto, NCAA March Madness bracket pools and horse racing tournaments. For small pools with complete information about outcome probabilities, exact game theory optimal solutions are straightforward to compute. If there is also complete information about the number and strategy of other players, optimal exploitive strategies are even easier to derive. These problems have been treated in the literature.

This paper argues that the complete information approaches are …