Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Trend Analysis And Modeling Of Health And Environmental Data: Joinpoint And Functional Approach, Ram C. Kafle

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The present study is divided into two parts: the first is on developing the statistical analysis and modeling of mortality (or incidence) trends using Bayesian joinpoint regression and the second is on fitting differential equations from time series data to derive the rate of change of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Joinpoint regression model identifies significant changes in the trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of a specific disease in a given population. Bayesian approach of joinpoint regression is widely used in modeling statistical data to identify the points in the trend where the significant changes occur. The purpose …

Gwas Identifies An Nat2 Acetylator Status Tag Single Nucleotide Polymorphism To Be A Major Locus For Skin Fluorescence, Karen M. Eny, Helen L. Lutgers, John Maynard, Barbara E.K. Klein, Kristine E. Lee, Patricia A. Cleary, +20 Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Aims/hypothesis

Skin fluorescence (SF) is a non-invasive marker of AGEs and is associated with the long-term complications of diabetes. SF increases with age and is also greater among individuals with diabetes. A familial correlation of SF suggests that genetics may play a role. We therefore performed parallel genome-wide association studies of SF in two cohorts.

Methods

Cohort 1 included 1,082 participants, 35–67 years of age with type 1 diabetes. Cohort 2 included 8,721 participants without diabetes, aged 18–90 years.

Results

rs1495741 was significantly associated with SF in Cohort 1 (p < 6 × 10−10), which is known to tag theNAT2 acetylator phenotype. The fast acetylator genotype was associated …

Understanding Non-Emergent Pediatric Ed Visits: Using Hospital And Family Centric Data To Inform System Redesign, Deborah Swavely Dnp, Rn, Kathy Baker Mph, Rn, Krista L. Bilger Bsn, Rn, David Zimmerman Mph, Andrew Martin Msn, Rn

Department of Community Health and Health Studies

No abstract provided.

Partially-Latent Class Models (Plcm) For Case-Control Studies Of Childhood Pneumonia Etiology, Zhenke Wu, Maria Deloria-Knoll, Laura L. Hammitt, Scott L. Zeger

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In population studies on the etiology of disease, one goal is the estimation of the fraction of cases attributable to each of several causes. For example, pneumonia is a clinical diagnosis of lung infection that may be caused by viral, bacterial, fungal, or other pathogens. The study of pneumonia etiology is challenging because directly sampling from the lung to identify the etiologic pathogen is not standard clinical practice in most settings. Instead, measurements from multiple peripheral specimens are made. This paper considers the problem of estimating the population etiology distribution and the individual etiology probabilities. We formulate the scientific …

A Comparison Of Prenatal Alcohol, Tobacco, And Other Drug Use Between San Luis Obispo County And Ventura County, Dana M. Williamson

Statistics

Prenatal substance abuse is a growing issue in America. It can lead to fetal alcohol spectrum disorder, long term growth, behavior, and executive functioning problems, and creates a predisposition for drug use for the child.

This project summarizes the statistical analyses comparing alcohol, tobacco, and other drug use by pregnant women between San Luis Obispo County and Ventura County. The main goal of these analyses is to determine if there is a difference between San Luis Obispo County and Ventura County. This is an interesting comparison because these counties are neighboring counties, and past data have shown that the rate …

Assessing The Impact Of Misclassification When Comparing Prevalence Data: A Novel Sensitivity Analysis Approach, Ninet Sinaii, Sean D. Cleary, Pamela Stratton

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background: A simple sensitivity analysis technique was developed to assess the impact of misclassification and verify observed prevalence differences between distinct populations.

Methods: The prevalence of self-reported comorbid diseases in 4,331 women with surgically-diagnosed endometriosis was compared to published clinical and population-based prevalence estimates. Disease prevalence misclassification was assessed by assuming over-reporting in the study sample and under-reporting in the general (comparison) population. Over- and under-reporting by 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% was used to create a 5×5 table for each disease. The new prevalences represented by each table cell were compared by p-values, prevalence odds ratios, and 95% …

Socioeconomic And Demographic Factors Modify The Association Between Informal Caregiving And Health In The Sandwich Generation, Elizabeth K. Do, Steven A. Cohen, Monique J. Brown Ph.D., Mph

Faculty Publications

Background

Nearly 50 million Americans provide informal care to an older relative or friend. Many are members of the “sandwich generation”, providing care for elderly parents and children simultaneously. Although evidence suggests that the negative health consequences of caregiving are more severe for sandwiched caregivers, little is known about how these associations vary by sociodemographic factors.

Methods

We abstracted data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to determine how the association between caregiving and health varies by sociodemographic factors, using ordinal logistic regression with interaction terms and stratification by number of children, income, and race/ethnicity.

Results

The association between …

Venue-Based Recruitment Of Women At Elevated Risk For Hiv: An Hiv Prevention Trials Network Study, Danielle F. Haley, Carol E. Golin, Wafaa M. El-Sadr, James P. Hughes, Jing Wang, Irene Kuo, +13 Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background: The challenge of identifying and recruiting U.S. women at elevated risk for HIV acquisition impedes prevention studies and services. HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 064 was a U.S. multisite, longitudinal cohort study designed to estimate HIV incidence among women living in communities with prevalent HIV and poverty. Venue-based sampling (VBS) methodologies and participant and venue characteristics are described.

Methods: Eligible women were recruited from 10 U.S. communities with prevalent HIV and poverty using VBS. Participant eligibility criteria included age 18–44 years, residing in a designated census tract/zip code, and self-report of at least one high-risk personal and/or male sexual …

Obesity Rates In Maine Exceed New England's Obesity Rate: A Look At Possible Contributing Factors, Susan Walker

Thinking Matters Symposium Archive

The purpose of this study was to explore adult obesity data to: Compare Maine’s rates with other New England states and explore differences in Maine counties by looking at known risk factors.

The Impact Of Salsalate Treatment On Serum Levels Of Advanced Glycation End Products In Type 2 Diabetes., Joshua I Barzilay, Kathleen A. Jablonski, Vivian Fonseca, Steven E Shoelson, Allison B Goldfine, Christopher Strauch, Vincent M Monnier, Tinsal-T2d Research Consortium.

GW Biostatistics Center

OBJECTIVE Salsalate is a nonacetylated salicylate that lowers glucose levels in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Here we examined whether salsalate also lowered serum-protein-bound levels of early and advanced glycation end products (AGEs) that have been implicated in diabetic vascular complications. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Participants were from the Targeting Inflammation Using Salsalate for Type 2 Diabetes (TINSAL-T2D) study, which examined the impact of salsalate treatment on hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and a wide variety of other parameters. One hundred eighteen participants received salsalate, 3.5 g/day for 48 weeks, and 109 received placebo. Early glycation product levels (HbA1c and fructoselysine …

Genetic Risk Of Progression To Type 2 Diabetes And Response To Intensive Lifestyle Or Metformin In Prediabetic Women With And Without A History Of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus., Shannon D Sullivan, Kathleen A. Jablonski, Jose C Florez, Dana Dabelea, Paul W Franks, Sam Dagogo-Jack, Catherine Kim, William C Knowler, Costas A Christophi, Robert Ratner, Diabetes Prevention Program Research Group.

GW Biostatistics Center

OBJECTIVE The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) trial investigated rates of progression to diabetes among adults with prediabetes randomized to treatment with placebo, metformin, or intensive lifestyle intervention. Among women in the DPP, diabetes risk reduction with metformin was greater in women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared with women without GDM but with one or more previous live births.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We asked if genetic variability could account for these differences by comparing β-cell function and genetic risk scores (GRS), calculated from 34 diabetes-associated loci, between women with and without histories of GDM.

RESULTS β-Cell function was …

Metabolic Syndrome Components And Their Response To Lifestyle And Metformin Interventions Are Associated With Differences In Diabetes Risk In Persons With Impaired Glucose Tolerance, H. Florez, M. Temprosa, Trevor J. Orchard, Kieren J. Mather, Santica M. Marcovina, Elizabeth Barrett-Connor, Edward Horton, C. D. Saudek, F. X. Pi-Sunyer, R. E. Ratner, R. B. Goldberg

GW Biostatistics Center

Aims

To determine the association of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components with diabetes risk in participants with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and whether intervention-related changes in MetS lead to differences in diabetes incidence.

Methods

We used the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III) revised MetS definition at baseline and intervention-related changes of its components to predict incident diabetes using Cox models in 3234 Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) participants with IGT over an average follow-up of 3.2 years.

Results

In an intention-to-treat analysis, the demographic-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for diabetes in those with MetS (vs. …

A Metaevaluation Of Evaluations Of Health Care Programs That Employ The Chronic Care Model, Jan Fields

Dissertations

Background: The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the use of metaevaluation to evaluate the quality of healthcare studies conducted on programs that employ the Chronic Care Model (CCM) to provide chronic illness care. In this study, healthcare studies of CCM programs are regarded as program evaluations. Method: Using a non-experimental cross-sectional design, 28 healthcare studies of CCM programs were evaluated using the accuracy standards portion of the Program Evaluations Metaevaluation Checklist (Stufflebeam, 2011). The results of the metaevaluations were analyzed and compared to the HEAL grade of the same healthcare studies as determined by the Hierarchy of Evidence …

A Unification Of Mediation And Interaction: A Four-Way Decomposition, Tyler J. Vanderweele

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

It is shown that the overall effect of an exposure on an outcome, in the presence of a mediator with which the exposure may interact, can be decomposed into four components: (i) the effect of the exposure in the absence of the mediator, (ii) the interactive effect when the mediator is left to what it would be in the absence of exposure, (iii) a mediated interaction, and (iv) a pure mediated effect. These four components, respectively, correspond to the portion of the effect that is due to neither mediation nor interaction, to just interaction (but not mediation), to both mediation …

New Malignancies After Squamous Cell Carcinoma And Melanomas: A Population-Based Study From Norway, Trude E. Robsahm, Margaret R. Karagas, Judy R. Rees, Astri Syse

Dartmouth Scholarship

Skin cancer survivors experience an increased risk for subsequent malignancies but the associated risk factors are poorly understood. This study examined the risk of a new primary cancer following an initial skin cancer and assessed risk factors associated with second primary cancers.

The Association Of Calcium Intake And Other Risk Factors With Cardiovascular Disease Among Obese Adults In Usa, Yang Chen, Sheryl Strasser, Katie Callahan, David Blackley, Yan Cao, Liang Wang, Shimin Zheng

ETSU Faculty Works

In this study, we used a cross-sectional study design to examine the relationship between the calcium intake and risk factors for CVD among obese adults by using continuous waves of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data 1999-2010. The association between calcium intake and risk factors of CVD (hypertension, total cholesterol, HDL, glycohemoglobin), CRP, albuminuria) is assessed among obese adults in USA. The incidence of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is high among obese people. The potential effects of inadequate calcium intake on CVD are receiving increased epidemiologic attention. Understanding the association between risk factors for CVD and calcium intake among …

A Novel Three Serum Phospholipid Panel Differentiates Normal Individuals From Those With Prostate Cancer, Nima Patel, Robert L. Vogel, Kumar Chandra-Kuntal, Wayne Glasgow, Uddhav Kelavkar

Biostatistics: Faculty Publications

Background: The results of prostate specific antigen (PSA) and digital rectal examination (DRE) screenings lead to both under and over treatment of prostate cancer (PCa). As such, there is an urgent need for the identification and evaluation of new markers for early diagnosis and disease prognosis. Studies have shown a link between PCa, lipids and lipid metabolism. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the concentrations and distribution of serum lipids in patients with PCa as compared with serum from controls.

Method: Using Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESI-MS/MS) lipid profiling, we analyzed serum phospholipids from age-matched subjects who …

A Phylogenetic Model For Understanding The Effect Of Gene Duplication On Cancer Progression, Qin Ma, Jaxk H. Reeves, David A. Liberles, Lili Yu, Zheng Chang, Jing Zhao, Juan Cui, Ying Xu, Liang Liu

Biostatistics: Faculty Publications

As biotechnology advances rapidly, a tremendous amount of cancer genetic data has become available, providing an unprecedented opportunity for understanding the genetic mechanisms of cancer. To understand the effects of duplications and deletions on cancer progression, two genomes (normal and tumor) were sequenced from each of five stomach cancer patients in different stages (I, II, III and IV). We developed a phylogenetic model for analyzing stomach cancer data. The model assumes that duplication and deletion occur in accordance with a continuous time Markov Chain along the branches of a phylogenetic tree attached with five extended branches leading to the tumor …

Computational Model For Survey And Trend Analysis Of Patients With Endometriosis : A Decision Aid Tool For Ebm, Salvo Reina, Vito Reina, Franco Ameglio, Mauro Costa, Alessandro Fasciani

COBRA Preprint Series

Endometriosis is increasingly collecting worldwide attention due to its medical complexity and social impact. The European community has identified this as a “social disease”. A large amount of information comes from scientists, yet several aspects of this pathology and staging criteria need to be clearly defined on a suitable number of individuals. In fact, available studies on endometriosis are not easily comparable due to a lack of standardized criteria to collect patients’ informations and scarce definitions of symptoms. Currently, only retrospective surgical stadiation is used to measure pathology intensity, while the Evidence Based Medicine (EBM) requires shareable methods and correct …

Adaptive Pair-Matching In The Search Trial And Estimation Of The Intervention Effect, Laura Balzer, Maya L. Petersen, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In randomized trials, pair-matching is an intuitive design strategy to protect study validity and to potentially increase study power. In a common design, candidate units are identified, and their baseline characteristics used to create the best n/2 matched pairs. Within the resulting pairs, the intervention is randomized, and the outcomes measured at the end of follow-up. We consider this design to be adaptive, because the construction of the matched pairs depends on the baseline covariates of all candidate units. As consequence, the observed data cannot be considered as n/2 independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.) pairs of units, as current practice assumes. …

Concomitant Socioeconomic, Behavioral, And Biological Factors Associated With The Disproportionate Hiv Infection Burden Among Black Men Who Have Sex With Men In 6 U.S. Cities, Kenneth H. Mayer, Lei Wang, Beryl A. Koblin, Sharon B. Mannheimer, Manya Magnus, +13 Additional Authors

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background

American Black men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV, but the factors associated with this concentrated epidemic are not fully understood.

Methods

Black MSM were enrolled in 6 US cities to evaluate a multi-component prevention intervention, with the current analysis focusing on the correlates of being newly diagnosed with HIV compared to being HIV-uninfected or previously diagnosed with HIV.

Results

HPTN 061 enrolled 1553 Black MSM whose median age was 40; 30% self-identified exclusively as gay or homosexual, 29% exclusively as bisexual, and 3% as transgender. About 1/6th(16.2%) were previously diagnosed with HIV (PD); …

Estimating Population Treatment Effects From A Survey Sub-Sample, Kara E. Rudolph, Ivan Diaz, Michael Rosenblum, Elizabeth A. Stuart

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

We consider the problem of estimating an average treatment effect for a target population from a survey sub-sample. Our motivating example is generalizing a treatment effect estimated in a sub-sample of the National Comorbidity Survey Replication Adolescent Supplement to the population of U.S. adolescents. To address this problem, we evaluate easy-to-implement methods that account for both non-random treatment assignment and a non-random two-stage selection mechanism. We compare the performance of a Horvitz-Thompson estimator using inverse probability weighting (IPW) and two double robust estimators in a variety of scenarios. We demonstrate that the two double robust estimators generally outperform IPW in …

Analysis Of Schizophrenia Data Using A Nonlinear Threshold Index Logistic Model., Zhenyu Jiang, Chengan Du, Assen Jablensky, Hua Liang, Zudi Lu, Yang Ma, Kok Lay Teo

GW Biostatistics Center

Genetic information, such as single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, has been widely recognized as useful in prediction of disease risk. However, how to model the genetic data that is often categorical in disease class prediction is complex and challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel class of nonlinear threshold index logistic models to deal with the complex, nonlinear effects of categorical/discrete SNP covariates for Schizophrenia class prediction. A maximum likelihood methodology is suggested to estimate the unknown parameters in the models. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methodology works viably well for moderate-size samples. The suggested approach is therefore …

Mediation Analysis Of Gestational Age, Congenital Heart Defects, And Infant Birth-Weight, Adane Wogu, Christopher Loffredo, Ionut Bebu, George Luta

GW Biostatistics Center

Background

In this study we assessed the mediation role of the gestational age on the effect of the infant’s congenital heart defects (CHD) on birth-weight.

Methods

We used secondary data from the Baltimore-Washington Infant Study (1981–1989). Mediation analysis was employed to investigate whether gestational age acted as a mediator of the association between CHD and reduced birth-weight. We estimated the mediated effect, the mediation proportion, and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) using several methods.

Results

There were 3362 CHD cases and 3564 controls in the dataset with mean birth-weight of 3071 (SD = 729) and 3353 (SD = 603) …

Engagement With Care, Substance Use, And Adherence To Therapy In Hiv/Aids, Patrice K. Nicholas, Suzanne Willard, Clinton J. Thompson, Carol Dawson-Rose, Inge B. Corless, +20 Additional Authors

GW Biostatistics Center

Engagement with care for those living with HIV is aimed at establishing a strong relationship between patients and their health care provider and is often associated with greater adherence to therapy and treatment (Flickinger, Saha, Moore, and Beach, 2013). Substance use behaviors are linked with lower rates of engagement with care and medication adherence (Horvath, Carrico, Simoni, Boyer, Amico, and Petroli, 2013). This study is a secondary data analysis using a cross-sectional design from a larger randomized controlled trial (n = 775) that investigated the efficacy of a self-care symptom management manual for participants living with HIV. Participants were …

Short And Long-Term Lifestyle Coaching Approaches Used To Address Diverse Participant Barriers To Weight Loss And Physical Activity Adherence, Elizabeth M. Venditti, Judith Wylie-Rosett, Linda M. Delahanty, Lisa L. Mele, Mary A. Hoskin, Sharon Edelstein

GW Biostatistics Center

Background

Individual barriers to weight loss and physical activity goals in the Diabetes Prevention Program, a randomized trial with 3.2 years average treatment duration, have not been previously reported. Evaluating barriers and the lifestyle coaching approaches used to improve adherence in a large, diverse participant cohort can inform dissemination efforts.

Methods

Lifestyle coaches documented barriers and approaches after each session (mean session attendance = 50.3 +/- 21.8). Subjects were 1076 intensive lifestyle participants (mean age = 50.6 years; mean BMI = 33.9 kg/m2; 68% female, 48% non-Caucasian). Barriers and approaches used to improve adherence were ranked by the percentage of …

Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments By Body Mass Index Z-Score Or Waist-To-Height Ratio In A Multiethnic Sample Of Sixth-Graders, Henry S. Kahn, Laure El Ghormli, Russell Jago, Gary D. Foster, Robert G. Mcmurray, John B. Buse, Diane D. Stadler, Roberto P. Trevino, Tom Baranowski, Healthy Study Group

GW Biostatistics Center

Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index -score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R²) and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. …

Community Colleges And Public Health: An Integral Part Of The Continuum Of Education For Public Health, Richard Riegelman, Cynthia Wilson

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Hiv Testing Implementation In Two Urban Cities: Practice, Policy, And Perceived Barriers., Camden J Hallmark, Jennifer Skillicorn, Thomas P Giordano, Jessica A Davila, Marlene Mcneese, Nestor Rocha, Avemaria Smith, Stacey Cooper, Amanda D. Castel

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Although funding has supported the scale up of routine, opt-out HIV testing in the US, variance in implementation mechanisms and barriers in high-burden jurisdictions remains unknown.

METHODS: We conducted a survey of health care organizations in Washington, DC and Houston/Harris County to determine number of HIV tests completed in 2011, policy and practices associated with HIV testing, funding mechanisms, and reported barriers to testing in each jurisdiction and to compare results between jurisdictions.

RESULTS: In 2012, 43 Houston and 35 DC HIV-testing organizations participated in the survey. Participants represented 85% of Department of Health-supported testers in DC and 90% …

Causality Is Logically Definable-Toward An Equilibrium-Based Computing Paradigm Of Quantum Agents And Quantum Intelligence (Qaqi), Wen-Ran Zhang, Karl E. Peace

Biostatistics: Faculty Publications

A survey on agents, causality and intelligence is presented and an equilibrium-based computing paradigm of quantum agents and quantum intelligence (QAQI) is proposed. In the survey, Aristotle’s causality principle and its historical extensions by David Hume, Bertrand Russell, Lotfi Zadeh, Donald Rubin, Judea Pearl, Niels Bohr, Albert Einstein, David Bohm, and the causal set initiative are reviewed; bipolar dynamic logic (BDL) is introduced as a causal logic for bipolar inductive and deductive reasoning; bipolar quantum linear algebra (BQLA) is introduced as a causal algebra for quantum agent interaction and formation. Despite the widely held view that causality is undefinable with …