Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Reply To: S. N. Katkuri Et Al. And H. Liu Et Al. On Early And Sustained Improvements In Sense Of Smell With Tezepelumab Treatment In Patients With Chronic Rhinosinusitis With Nasal Polyps (Waypoint), Joaquim Mullol, Joseph K. Han, Tanya M. Laidlaw, Claire Hopkins, Anju T. Peters, Oliver Pfaar, Martin Desrosiers, Stella E. Lee, Andrew P. Lane, Claudia Chen, Yun Chon, Sandhia S. Ponnarambil, Andrew Foster, Andrew W. Lindsley, Christopher S. Ambrose

Department of Otolaryngology (ENT) Faculty Publications

[Introduction] We thank Dr. S. N. Katkuri, Dr. H. Liu, and their coauthors [1, 2] for their interest in our recent publication describing the improvements in loss of smell symptoms with tezepelumab versus placebo in patients with uncontrolled chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) in the WAYPOINT trial (NCT04851964) [3]. We are grateful for the authors' feedback on the clinical significance of the data presented and their appreciation of the consistency observed across a range of baseline clinical characteristic and demographic subgroups.

Use Of Tezepelumab For Chronic Rhinosinusitis With Nasal Polyps By Eosinophilic Endotype: Waypoint Post-Hoc Analysis, Shigeharu Fujieda, Nobuyoshi Otori, Joseph K. Han, Tadataka Yabuta, Claudia Chen, Claudio Marchese, Andrews Foster, Sandhia S. Ponnarambil, Yun Chan, Brian J. Lipworth

Department of Otolaryngology (ENT) Faculty Publications

Background

The phase 3 WAYPOINT study (NCT04851964) reported that tezepelumab improved outcomes in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP), including nasal polyp size, nasal congestion, and sinonasal symptoms, and reduced the need for surgery and systemic corticosteroids (SCS).

Objective

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of tezepelumab across Japanese Epidemiological Survey of Refractory Eosinophilic Chronic Rhinosinusitis-defined eosinophilic chronic rhinosinusitis (ECRS) subgroups.

Methods

Adults with severe CRSwNP were randomized to tezepelumab 210 mg or placebo every 4 weeks. Coprimary end points were the change from baseline to week 52 in total Nasal Polyp Score and the biweekly mean Nasal …

Guidelines For Standard Basic Notations In Applied Statistics, Abhaya Indrayan, Shivani Saini Ms

COBRA Preprint Series

Whereas some statistical notations are standard and uniformly used by different workers, many are not. Varying notations lead to confusion among the readers, particularly those engaged with applied statistics material, such as medical professionals. This communication proposes that all basic notations be standardized so that the same notations are consistently used by different authors, in different books, journals, and articles for the benefit of those who are not rigorously trained statisticians. Guidelines for such standard notations are also provided. The lead must be taken by statisticians.

Investigating The Role Of Humic Acid In The Adsorption Mechanics Of Acetaminophen On Potassium Persulfate-Aged Polyethylene Terephthalate (Pet), Andrew Littleton, Maria Danielle Garrett, Phd

SPARK Symposium Presentations

Pharmaceutical contaminants such as acetaminophen (APAP) are showing a rising presence in aquatic environments, where their interactions with microplastics (MPs) can potentially modulate natural degradation mechanisms. Concurrent presence of the two substances has been shown to potentiate increase their individual harmful effects. This study investigates whether oxidative aging and humic-acid surface modification of PET microplastics influence APAP adsorption.

In this study, UV-aging was reproduced using an iron (II)-activated potassium persulfate (Fe(II)-KPS) oxidation system. Aqueous dissolved organic matter (DOM) is simulated using multi-hour exposure to humic acid. The MPs are then removed from the solution to examine adsorption mechanisms. While most …

Barriers To Immunity: Understanding Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake In Africa, Emilia Blechschmidt

Honors Theses

This thesis examines the factors influencing COVID-19 vaccine uptake across African countries, with a focus on structural, informational, and behavioral barriers to immunization. Drawing on cross-country data, the study analyzes how access to transportation, reliable information, and healthcare resources shape vaccination rates, alongside the effect of demographics and institutional factors in shaping individual perceptions of risk and vaccine safety.

The findings emphasize that the broader strength and preparedness of national health systems strongly influence vaccine uptake. Countries that demonstrated higher coverage of routine childhood immunizations, such as polio and hepatitis B, also tended to perform better in COVID-19 uptake efficiency …

An Ensemble Classifier For Ordinal Outcomes In High-Dimensional Genomics Data, Heranga K. Rathnasekara, Sinjini Sikdar

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Analysis of genomics data for predicting disease outcomes is a fast-growing field in medical research. There often exist categorical, specifically, ordinal outcomes that need to be predicted based on genomic profiles. This has led to recent development of some high-dimensional ordinal classification methods that can address the large dimensionality of the genomic covariate set. These high-dimensional ordinal models tend to vary widely in their performance depending on the data they are applied to and the evaluation criteria used. In this article, we outline an ensemble ordinal classifier that integrates different ordinal modeling approaches through bootstrap-based model evaluation, multi-metric performance assessment, …

Gender Differences In The Association Between Adverse Childhood Experiences And Drug Use: Findings From A Community-Based Survey In China, Hongyun Fu, Elizabeth Monk-Turner, Xiushi Yang

Department of Pediatrics Faculty Publications

Background

While adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are widely recognized risk factors for behavioral health problems, including drug use, prior research has largely been conducted in Western countries, focused primarily on males, and relied on convenience samples without comparison groups of nonusers. Limited work has examined the impact of ACEs on drug use in non-Western contexts. This study examines gender differences in the relationship between ACEs and drug use in China, using data from a population-based probability sample survey.

Methods:

Cross-sectional data were collected in 2019 from one city in Yunnan Province in Southwest China and one city in Guangdong Province …

Differential Impact Of Admission Type And Clinical Complexity On Diabetes Hospitalization Costs Among African American And Hispanic Patients In Southeastern Virginia, Ismail El Moudden, Asra Amidi, Reem Sharaf-Alddin, Michael C. Bittner, Qi Zhang

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology Faculty Publications

Background

Diabetes mellitus (DM) imposes substantial healthcare costs with documented disparities among African Americans and Hispanic patients. To inform care delivery and resource allocation, this study identified hospitalization cost predictors among African American and Hispanic patients with diabetes in Southeastern Virginia.

Methods

We analyzed 6,011 hospital discharges from the Virginia Health Information database (2016-2020) for adults aged 18-85 with diabetes. Discharges were classified by Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Groups: DM with complications/comorbidities (DCC, n = 3,328), DM with major complications/comorbidities (DMCC, n = 1,518), and DM without major complications/comorbidities (DWO, n = 1,165). Because cost distributions were right-skewed (skewness 3.5-8.24), we …

Understanding Motivations And Health Outcomes Of College-Aged Triathletes During Covid-19: A Mixed-Methods Study, Patrick Wilson, Eddie Hill, Justin Haegele, Xihe Zhu

Human Movement Studies & Special Education Faculty Publications

A triathlon is a multi-sport event that consists of three simultaneous events: swimming, biking, and running. This sport has experienced significant growth in the past few decades, with colleges and universities now participating. This exploratory mixed-methods study examined the motivations and perceived health benefits of college triathletes during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the Means-Ends of Recreation Scale and the Perceived Health Outcomes of Recreation Scale (N = 29), as well as semi-structured interviews (N = 4). Results indicate no difference in motives or health outcomes between male and female survey respondents. The thematic analysis of open-ended interview questions highlighted lived …

Model For Calculating Impact Force For Individualized Hip Fracture Prediction During A Fall, Alisha Agarwal, Daniel Kargilis, Nishtha Gupta, Michael Chang, Rui Feng, Gregory Chang, Chamith S. Rajapakse

Student Papers, Posters & Projects

Osteoporotic-related weakening of bone is a common cause of hip fractures. The standard of care for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis is the dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density T-scores. Many individuals considered nonosteoporotic, however, still sustain fractures since these tools do not incorporate vital bone parameters and subject-specific characteristics. The purpose of this work was to (1) develop a simple analytical model for estimating the force exerted on the femur during a fall (i.e., impact force) based on measurable patient metrics and (2) define a quantifiable fracture risk index by comparing finite-element-derived bone strength and impact force, which …

Understanding Daily Habits Affect On Mood: A Semester-Long Wellness Analysis, Alexis Caitlin Sweeney

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

This research aims to track and assess lifestyle and personal health behaviors over a semester in order to gain a better understanding of how daily routines impact overall well-being. Ten variables are being monitored, including weight, caffeine intake, sleep duration, napping, exercise frequency, homework hours, Instagram screen time, vitamin use, practicing miles, and mood evaluations on a 5-point scale. I intend to identify trends and relationships between these factors through consistent data collection throughout the semester, such as the effects of sleep and caffeine on mood, motivation, and productivity.

As a student-athlete and health science major, this initiative gives me …

Short-Term Preeclampsia Prediction: Cutoff Variations For Sflt-1/Plgf In U.S. Patients With Or Without Hypertensive Disorders, Yaxin Li, Kristen Cagino, Jim Yee, Caroline Andy, Dajana Borova, Ayush Shah, Isla Racine, Tracy Grossman, Zhen Zhao

Student Papers, Posters & Projects

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia (PE) is a complex disorder with significant maternal and fetal risks. The soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio shows promise as a diagnostic tool, but its adoption in the U.S. remains limited due to the lack of accessible testing platforms, U.S.-based studies, and evidence-based implementation guidelines.

PATIENTS/MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cohort study to evaluate the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio for predicting PE within two weeks among pregnant individuals ≥18 years, ≥20 weeks gestation. Serum samples were obtained from routine prenatal visits or triage evaluations. sFlt-1/PlGF ratios were measured using Roche Elecsys assays, and …

Improving Glycemic Control Among Indonesian Urban Adults: A Digital And Behavioral Extension Of The Information–Motivation–Behavioral Skills Model, Imelda Appulembang

Kesmas

Management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Indonesia continues to face challenges due to behavioral, informational, and technological gaps among patients. This study analyzed the influence of self-regulatory competence and information, motivation, family support, and digital health literacy on glycemic control behavior. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from February to April 2025 among 587 adults aged >30 years with T2DM enrolled in the Chronic Disease Management Program at primary health care in six major cities: Jakarta, Surabaya, Yogyakarta, Medan, Makassar, and Banjarmasin. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. The findings …

Benchmarking Dna Foundation Models For Genomic And Genetic Tasks, Haonan Feng, Lang Wu, Bingxin Zhao, Chad Huff, Jianjun Zhang, Jia Wu, Lifeng Lin, Peng Wei, Chong Wu

School of Medicine Faculty Publications

The rapid evolution of DNA foundation models promises to revolutionize genomics, yet comprehensive evaluations are lacking. Here, we present a comprehensive, unbiased benchmark of five models (DNABERT-2, Nucleotide Transformer V2, HyenaDNA, Caduceus-Ph, and GROVER) across diverse genomic and genetic tasks including sequence classification, gene expression prediction, variant effect quantification, and topologically associating domain (TAD) region recognition, using zero-shot embeddings. Our analysis reveals that mean token embedding consistently and significantly improves sequence classification performance, outperforming other pooling strategies. Model performance varies among tasks and datasets; while general purpose DNA foundation models showed competitive performance in pathogenic variant identification, they were less …

Field Validation Of Multiple Species Distribution Models Shows Variation In Performance For Predicting Aedes Albopictus Distributions At The Invasion Edge, Anna V. Shattuck, Brandon D. Hollingsworth Ph.D., Jared Skrotzki, Scott R. Campbell, Christopher L. Romano, Courtney C. Murdock

Faculty Publications

Background

Climate and land use changes have resulted in range expansion of many species. In this shifting disease landscape, it is important to leverage tools that can predict the distributions of invading vectors to target surveillance and control efforts and identify at-risk populations. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict ranges of invasive species; however, invasive species often violate assumptions of equilibrium and niche conservatism. Moreover, these studies are rarely validated using independent data.

Methods 

We use long-term surveillance data for Aedes albopictus, a highly invasive mosquito capable of transmitting several arboviruses, at its range edge to evaluate a …

Latent Classification Of Time-Dependent Transition Rates In Longitudinal Binary Outcome Data, Joonha Chang, Wenyaw Chan

School of Public Health Faculty Publications

Continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) models and latent classification methods are commonly used to analyze longitudinal categorical outcomes in medical research. While CTMC models are popular for their simplicity and effectiveness, their assumption of constant transition rates presents limitations in capturing dynamic behaviors. To address this, non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chains (NH-CTMCs) have been developed, incorporating time-varying transition rates to enhance model flexibility. In this study, we leverage closed-form transition probabilities for a fully ergodic two-state NH-CTMC model and propose a latent class clustering approach to identify heterogeneous transition rate patterns within the population. We emphasize the potential advantages of these models …

Mentoring First-Year Stem Students Through Collaborative Research In The Haynes Scholars Program, Alex Capaldi, Laura Tipton

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

[Lele] Incorporating Physiological Constraints In Estimates Of Post-Prandial Insulin Secretion Rate, Justin K. Garrish, Christine L. Chan, Douglas Nychka, Cecilia Diniz Behn

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Circulating Levels Of Insulin-Like Growth Factor I (Igf-I) And Risk Ofmultiple Myeloma: An Observational And Mendelian Randomisation Study, Yolanda Benavente, Sara Hermosa, Nikos Papadimitriou, Alyssa I. Clay-Gilmour Ph.D., Elizabeth E. Brown, Jonathan N. Hofmann, Nathaniel Rothman, Qing Lan, Sonja I. Berndt, Demetrius Albanes, Mark Purdue, Mitchell J. Machiela, Stephen J. Chanock, Parveen Bhatti, Wendy Cozen, Aaron Norman, Susan L. Slager, James R. Cerhan, Vincent Rajkumar, Shaji J. Kumar, Et. Al.

Faculty Publications

Evidence for an association between insulin-like growth factors (IGF) and multiple myeloma (MM) is inconsistent. We examined total IGF-I concentrations and risk of MM by combining baseline serological data among UK Biobank participants (n = 444 187; 732 incident MM) with a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis using identified genetic variants associated with circulating total IGF-I and IGF-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) in the InterLymph consortium (2434 MM and their 2567 controls). Finally, additional lymphoid neoplasm (LN) subtypes were included for comparison with the main hypothesis. Circulating IGF-I level was positively associated with MM risk Hazard ratio-HR-per one standard deviation-SD-increase …

Adverse Childhood Experiences, Positive Childhood Experiences, And Digital Media Use Among Children And Adolescents In The United States, Elizabeth L. Crouch, Emma Boswell, Monique J. Brown Ph.D., Kevin J. Bennett

Publications

No abstract provided.

Smarter Disease Detection From Electronic Health Record Data: An End-To-End Ai-Augmented Pipeline For Computable Phenotyping, Dylan Owens

Statistical Science Theses and Dissertations

Electronic Health Records (EHR) contain a wealth of structured and unstructured patient data that can be leveraged for computable phenotyping, the process of algorithmically identifying patient cohorts with specific diseases or conditions. Traditional rule-based phenotyping approaches, while interpretable, often struggle with scalability, portability across institutions, and effective use of unstructured clinical narratives. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) present new opportunities for synthesizing complex free-text information into concise, clinically meaningful representations. However, integrating LLMs into phenotyping workflows requires careful design to maintain transparency, interpretability, and measurable uncertainty—features essential for clinical adoption and downstream applications such as decision support.

We …

Spatiotemporal Modeling Of Maternal Mortality In South Carolina 2018-2023, Leah Wood, Ray Bai, Emily Mann

Senior Theses

Maternal death serves as a public health indicator due to fact that it is considered preventable with the availability of modern biomedicine, however, it persists broadly throughout the United States. Current literature outlines national trends in maternal mortality with complicating, preexisting conditions, and structural upstream factors often cited as being the largest contributors to increased risk. This study utilizes publicly available, county-level data for maternal death in addition to demographic and descriptive data in order to estimate maternal mortality rates in each of South Carolina’s 46 counties from 2018 to 2023. In order to address sparsity in the outcome variable …

Glucodensity Functional Profiles Outperform Traditional Continuous Glucose Monitoring Metrics, Marcos Matabuena, Rahul Ghosal Ph.D., Javier Enrique Aguilar, Ayya Keshet, Robert Wagner, Carmen Fernández Merino, Juan Sánchez Castro, Vadim Zipunnikov, Jukka-Pekka Onnela, Francisco Gude

Faculty Publications

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data have revolutionized the management of type 1 diabetes, particularly when integrated with insulin pumps to mitigate clinical events such as hypoglycemia. Recently, there has been growing interest in utilizing CGM devices in clinical studies involving healthy and diabetic populations. However, efficiently exploiting the high temporal resolution of CGM profiles remains a significant challenge. Numerous indices—such as time–in–range metrics and glucose variability measures–have been proposed, but evidence suggests these metrics overlook critical aspects of dynamic glucose homeostasis. As an alternative method, this paper explores the clinical value of glucodensity metrics in capturing glucose dynamics—specifically the speed …

Association Of Estimated Plasma Volume Status With Invasive Hemodynamics And Adverse Clinical Outcomes In Patients With Pulmonary Hypertension And Chronic Kidney Disease, Andrew Geller, Jose Manuel Martinez Manzano, Esteban Kosak Lopez, Phuuwadith Wattanachayakul, John Malin, Raul Leguizamon, Tara John, Rasha Khan, Ian Mclaren, Alexander Prendergast, Simone Jarrett, Kevin Bryan Lo, Christian Witzke

Einstein Health Papers

Identifying noninvasive measures to assess intravascular volume status and risk stratify patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is needed. We assessed the predictive value of estimated plasma volume status (ePVS) using the Strauss-derived Duarte formula in PH-CKD patients. This single-center retrospective cohort analysis included patients with PH and CKD Stage 3b (CKD3b), Stage 4 (CKD4), or Stage 5 (CKD5) who underwent right heart catheterization from 2018 to 2023. Patients were categorized into low ePVS (< 6.2) and high ePVS (≥ 6.2) using Youden's J statistics. We used the Cox-proportional hazards model, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index, to investigate the association between …

Effect Of Vitamin D Supplementation During Pregnancy And Lactation On The Development Of Infants Born To Tanzanian Women Living With Hiv: A Secondary Analysis Of A Randomised Controlled Trial, Temiwunmi Shobanke, Alfa Muhihi, Nandita Perumal Phd, Nzovu Ulenga, Fadhlun M. Alwy Al-Beity, Christopher P. Duggan, Wafaie W. Fawzi, Karim P. Manji, Christopher R. Sudfeld

Faculty Publications

Background Infants born to pregnant women living with HIV (WLHIV) are at greater risk for morbidity and mortality and may also have poorer developmental outcomes as compared with infants who are not exposed to HIV. Nutrition interventions in pregnancy may affect developmental outcomes.

Objectives This study evaluated the effect of maternal vitamin D supplementation on infant development outcomes.

Design We conducted a secondary analysis of a randomised, triple-blind, placebo-controlled trial of maternal vitamin D supplementation from June 2015 to October 2019.

Setting Antenatal care clinics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Participants Pregnant WLHIV and their offspring.

Interventions Daily 3000 IU …

Modeling Musculoskeletal Combat Casualty Care: Nato Trauma System Performance In Large Scale Combat Operations, Mark P. Cote, Kaitlyn E. Holly, Roman J. Schoenfeld, Matthew R. Bryan, Malina O. Hatton, Mitchel B. Harris, Tracey P. Koehlmoos, Andrew J. Schoenfeld

Department of Orthopaedic Surgery Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the current North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) trauma system will be effective in the setting of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). We sought to model the efficacy of the NATO trauma system in the setting of LSCO. We also intended to model novel scenarios that could better adapt the current system to LSCO.

METHODS: We developed a discrete-event simulation model for patients with combat musculoskeletal injuries treated within the standard NATO system. The primary outcome of the model was survival. The model's health states were characterized as stable, hypovolemia, sepsis, shock, or death. The model simulated …

Emerging Clinical Role Of Tavapadon, A Novel Dopamine Partial Agonist, In The Treatment Of Parkinson’S Disease, Alan D. Kaye, Bennett M. Ford, Brennan M. Abbott, Kalob M. Broocks, Sofia Novacic, Sahar Shekoohi

School of Medicine Faculty Publications

Tavapadon, a novel oral dopamine-D1R/D5R partial agonist, has been studied in recent years for the treatment of late-stage development Parkinson’s disease (PD). Levodopa, a dopamine precursor that currently remains the gold-standard first-line therapy for PD motor symptoms, serves as a benchmark against emerging dopaminergic agents. By selectively activating D1-family receptors on direct-pathway medium neurons, Tavapadon differs in that it delivers levodopa-level motor benefit while avoiding its many D2R/D3R-mediated adverse effects. In placebo-controlled trials, Tavapadon produced clear, clinically meaningful gains in motor function and day-to-day activities, as captured by the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Recent late-stage results have revealed …

Access To Information On Toddler Family Development Program And Family Participation In Child Growth And Development, Dita Dhammayanti, Demsa Simbolon, Lissa Ervina, Yusran Fauzi

Kesmas

The comprehension of the Toddler Family Development (TFD) Program among families in Indonesia remains limited, likely due to insufficient access to information and low participation rates. Limited participation can negatively affect a family’s ability to support optimal child growth and development. This study examined the relationship between access to information on the TFD Program and family participation in child growth and development. Using secondary data from the 2019 Program Performance and Accountability Survey in Indonesia, the cross-sectional analysis included 21,497 respondents. The results revealed an association between access to information on the TFD Program and family participation in child growth …

Exploring Stunting In South Kalimantan Province Using R Programming-Based Data Visualization, Muhammad Hudaya, Wahyudin Nor, Mellani Yuliastina, Muhammad Nordiansyah

Kesmas

South Kalimantan Province continues to face the challenge of relatively high stunting prevalence despite being endowed with abundant coal resources that could serve as a source of funding for public health. Therefore, this study aimed to examine differences in stunting prevalence among cities, mining districts, and non-mining districts in South Kalimantan to raise stakeholder awareness of disparities across these regional types. This study was conducted between April and December 2024, using secondary data obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Health and the South Kalimantan Provincial Government. R programming was used to process the data, generate visualizations, and perform analysis of …

Understanding User Needs In Health Crisis Risk Monitoring Information System Development: A Lesson From Tasikmalaya District, Indonesia, Arief Tarmansyah Iman, Hari Kusnanto, Ariani Arista Putri Pertiwi

Kesmas

A health crisis risk monitoring information system needs to be developed, especially during the pre-disaster phase; therefore, understanding the needs of prospective users is crucial. This study aimed to investigate the needs of potential users regarding the development of this system. This study employed a qualitative, exploratory approach to gather user needs from stakeholders through interviews (n = 7) and one focus group discussion (n = 12). The data were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and then thematically analyzed using qualitative content analysis. The need for information was related to disaster preparedness and its preferred format. The system should be targeted, multiplatform, …