Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Model Checking For Roc Regression Analysis, Tianxi Cai, Yingye Zheng

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a prominent tool for characterizing the accuracy of continuous diagnostic test. To account for factors that might invluence the test accuracy, various ROC regression methods have been proposed. However, as in any regression analysis, when the assumed models do not fit the data well, these methods may render invalid and misleading results. To date practical model checking techniques suitable for validating existing ROC regression models are not yet available. In this paper, we develop cumulative residual based procedures to graphically and numerically assess the goodness-of-fit for some commonly used ROC regression models, and …

Autism And Parental Marital Satisfaction: The Role Of Adequacy Of Resources, Geneeta Kaliah Chambers

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

The goal of the present study was to expand on the existing literature exploring families with children who have developmental disabilities, particularly autism. Previous studies have been constrained by univariate approaches that have failed to adequately capture the nuances of family functioning. Using an ecological/context approach, stemming from an ongoing research program conducted within a university-based treatment center, the present study attempted to improve on the conceptualization of interrelationships among family members and the role that contextual factors play within that dynamic. Specifically, the present study explored the influence of children’s level of autism on parents’ reports of their marital …

Accuracy Of The Newtom 3g™ In Measuring The Angle Of The Articular Eminence, Rehana Khan

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy of the Newtom 3G™ in determining the angulation of the articular eminence. The benefits of conducting this study were to provide additional uses for the standard records that are taken for the purposes of orthodontic treatment, as well as evaluate the Newtom 3G™ for accuracy in measuring the anatomy of the glenoid fossa. This study required 20 participants that volunteered to allow their records to be used. Records evaluated were the Newtom 3G™, impressions, and wax check bite registrations. The wax record was taken using the 'forced bite' technique to …

Expert Testimony In Capital Sentencing: Juror Responses, John H. Montgomery, J. Richard Ciccone, Stephen P. Garvey, Theodore Eisenberg

Cornell Law Faculty Publications

The U.S. Supreme Court, in Furman v. Georgia (1972), held that the death penalty is constitutional only when applied on an individualized basis. The resultant changes in the laws in death penalty states fostered the involvement of psychiatric and psychologic expert witnesses at the sentencing phase of the trial, to testify on two major issues: (1) the mitigating factor of a defendant’s abnormal mental state and (2) the aggravating factor of a defendant’s potential for future violence. This study was an exploration of the responses of capital jurors to psychiatric/psychologic expert testimony during capital sentencing. The Capital Jury Project is …

Population Intervention Models In Causal Inference, Alan E. Hubbard, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Marginal structural models (MSM) provide a powerful tool for estimating the causal effect of a] treatment variable or risk variable on the distribution of a disease in a population. These models, as originally introduced by Robins (e.g., Robins (2000a), Robins (2000b), van der Laan and Robins (2002)), model the marginal distributions of treatment-specific counterfactual outcomes, possibly conditional on a subset of the baseline covariates, and its dependence on treatment. Marginal structural models are particularly useful in the context of longitudinal data structures, in which each subject's treatment and covariate history are measured over time, and an outcome is recorded at …

Gauss-Seidel Estimation Of Generalized Linear Mixed Models With Application To Poisson Modeling Of Spatially Varying Disease Rates, Subharup Guha, Louise Ryan

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide an elegant framework for the analysis of correlated data. Due to the non-closed form of the likelihood, GLMMs are often fit by computational procedures like penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of these models are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints often make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to data sets with very large number of cases.

This paper proposes a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss-Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits sub-models of the GLMM …

Computational Techniques For Spatial Logistic Regression With Large Datasets, Christopher J. Paciorek, Louise Ryan

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In epidemiological work, outcomes are frequently non-normal, sample sizes may be large, and effects are often small. To relate health outcomes to geographic risk factors, fast and powerful methods for fitting spatial models, particularly for non-normal data, are required. We focus on binary outcomes, with the risk surface a smooth function of space. We compare penalized likelihood models, including the penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) approach, and Bayesian models based on fit, speed, and ease of implementation.

A Bayesian model using a spectral basis representation of the spatial surface provides the best tradeoff of sensitivity and specificity in simulations, detecting real spatial …

Is The Number Of Sick Persons In A Cohort Constant Over Time?, Paula Diehr, Ann Derleth, Anne Newman, Liming Cai

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Objectives: To estimate the number of persons in a cohort who are sick, over time.

Methods: We calculated the number of sick persons in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a cohort study of older adults followed up to 14 years, using eight definitions of “healthy” and “sick”. We projected the number in each health state over time for a birth cohort.

Results: The number of sick persons in CHS was approximately constant for 14 years, for all definitions of “sick”. The estimated number of sick persons in the birth cohort was approximately constant from ages 55-75, after which it decreased. …

A Nonstationary Negative Binomial Time Series With Time-Dependent Covariates: Enterococcus Counts In Boston Harbor, E. Andres Houseman, Brent Coull, James P. Shine

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Boston Harbor has had a history of poor water quality, including contamination by enteric pathogens. We conduct a statistical analysis of data collected by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) between 1996 and 2002 to evaluate the effects of court-mandated improvements in sewage treatment. Motivated by the ineffectiveness of standard Poisson mixture models and their zero-inflated counterparts, we propose a new negative binomial model for time series of Enterococcus counts in Boston Harbor, where nonstationarity and autocorrelation are modeled using a nonparametric smooth function of time in the predictor. Without further restrictions, this function is not identifiable in the presence …

The Outcome Of Mta As A Root End Filling Material: A Long Term Evaluation, Christopher M. Sechrist

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Periradicular surgery is a viable option to save natural teeth when non-surgical treatment fails or when endodontic retreatment is not feasible or contraindicated. Laboratory and animal studies have demonstrated that MTA is biocompatible, provides an excellent seal against penetrating bacteria, and promotes hard tissue healing. The purpose of this study was to provide long term (>3 years) clinical evidence for its use as a root-end filling material in endodontics. The clinical records of 294 patients who had MTA used during endodontic treatment from 1996 to 2001 were reviewed. From these, 75 patients whose root end cavities had been filled …

Laser And Led Effects On The Proliferation Rate Of Periodontal Ligament Fibroblasts, Allen J. Job

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

PURPOSE: To compare the effectiveness of a Gallium Aluminum Arsenide (GaAlAs) diode laser and a light emitting diode (LED) on periodontal ligament fibroblast cell proliferative rates.

METHODS and MATERIALS: PDLF obtained from freshly extracted permanent teeth were cultured under standard conditions until a subconfluent monolayer was present. The next section took 5 days to complete. On day 1, the initial cell concentration of 700 uL/cm² was plated on 96-well assay plates and placed in a CO₂ incubator at 37° C for 24 hours. On day 2, cell counts were first verified using hemocytometry then were irradiated using an …

Direct Effect Models, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Maya L. Petersen

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The causal effect of a treatment on an outcome is generally mediated by several intermediate variables. Estimation of the component of the causal effect of a treatment that is mediated by a given intermediate variable (the indirect effect of the treatment), and the component that is not mediated by that intermediate variable (the direct effect of the treatment) is often relevant to mechanistic understanding and to the design of clinical and public health interventions. Under the assumption of no-unmeasured confounders for treatment and the intermediate variable, Robins & Greenland (1992) define an individual direct effect as the counterfactual effect of …

Attributable Risk Function In The Proportional Hazards Model, Ying Qing Chen, Chengcheng Hu, Yan Wang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

As an epidemiological parameter, the population attributable fraction is an important measure to quantify the public health attributable risk of an exposure to morbidity and mortality. In this article, we extend this parameter to the attributable fraction function in survival analysis of time-to-event outcomes, and further establish its estimation and inference procedures based on the widely used proportional hazards models. Numerical examples and simulations studies are presented to validate and demonstrate the proposed methods.

Prognosis Of Stage Ii Colon Cancer By Non-Neoplastic Mucosa Gene Expresssion Profiling, Alain Barrier, Sandrine Dudoit, Et Al.

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Aims. This study assessed the possibility to build a prognosis predictor, based on non-neoplastic mucosa microarray gene expression measures, in stage II colon cancer patients. Materials and Methods. Non-neoplastic colonic mucosa mRNA samples from 24 patients (10 with a metachronous metastasis, 14 with no recurrence) were profiled using the Affymetrix HGU133A GeneChip. The k-nearest neighbor method was used for prognosis prediction using microarray gene expression measures. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to select the number of neighbors and number of informative genes to include in the predictor. Based on this information, a prognosis predictor was proposed and its accuracy estimated by …

Colon Cancer Prognosis Prediction By Gene Expression Profiling, Alain Barrier, Sandrine Dudoit, Et Al.

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Aims. This study assessed the possibility to build a prognosis predictor, based on microarray gene expression measures, in stage II and III colon cancer patients. Materials and Methods. Tumour (T) and non-neoplastic mucosa (NM) mRNA samples from 18 patients (9 with a recurrence, 9 with no recurrence) were profiled using the Affymetrix HGU133A GeneChip. The k-nearest neighbour method was used for prognosis prediction using T and NM gene expression measures. Six-fold cross-validation was applied to select the number of neighbours and the number of informative genes to include in the predictors. Based on this information, one T-based and one NM-based …

Causal Inference In Longitudinal Studies With History-Restricted Marginal Structural Models, Romain Neugebauer, Mark J. Van Der Laan, Ira B. Tager

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Causal Inference based on Marginal Structural Models (MSMs) is particularly attractive to subject-matter investigators because MSM parameters provide explicit representations of causal effects. We introduce History-Restricted Marginal Structural Models (HRMSMs) for longitudinal data for the purpose of defining causal parameters which may often be better suited for Public Health research. This new class of MSMs allows investigators to analyze the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome based on a fixed, shorter and user-specified history of exposure compared to MSMs. By default, the latter represents the treatment causal effect of interest based on a treatment history defined by the …

The Sensitivity And Specificity Of Markers For Event Times, Tianxi Cai, Margaret S. Pepe, Thomas Lumley, Yingye Zheng, Nancy Swords Jenny

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No abstract provided.

Acute Toxicity Testing Without Animals: More Scientific And Less Of A Gamble, Gillian R. Langley

Application of Alternative Methods Collection

In this report, we argue specifically that acute toxicity data should not be sought from animal tests. The underlying principle of such tests on rats and mice is that the results can be effectively extrapolated to humans. In fact, after nearly 80 years of use of these tests, the predictivity of rodent data for human acute toxic effects has been disputed but never proven.

Insights Into Latent Class Analysis, Margaret S. Pepe, Holly Janes

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Latent class analysis is a popular statistical technique for estimating disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity. It is used when a gold standard assessment of disease is not available but results of multiple imperfect tests are. We derive analytic expressions for the parameter estimates in terms of the raw data, under the conditional independence assumption. These expressions indicate explicitly how observed two- and three-way associations between test results are used to infer disease prevalence and test operating characteristics. Although reasonable if the conditional independence model holds, the estimators have no basis when it fails. We therefore caution against using …

Standardizing Markers To Evaluate And Compare Their Performances, Margaret S. Pepe, Gary M. Longton

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Introduction: Markers that purport to distinguish subjects with a condition from those without a condition must be evaluated rigorously for their classification accuracy. A single approach to statistically evaluating and comparing markers is not yet established.

Methods: We suggest a standardization that uses the marker distribution in unaffected subjects as a reference. For an affected subject with marker value Y, the standardized placement value is the proportion of unaffected subjects with marker values that exceed Y.

Results: We apply the standardization to two illustrative datasets. In patients with pancreatic cancer placement values calculated for the CA 19-9 marker are smaller …

Combining Predictors For Classification Using The Area Under The Roc Curve, Margaret S. Pepe, Tianxi Cai, Zheng Zhang, Gary M. Longton

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

No single biomarker for cancer is considered adequately sensitive and specific for cancer screening. It is expected that the results of multiple markers will need to be combined in order to yield adequately accurate classification. Typically the objective function that is optimized for combining markers is the likelihood function. In this paper we consider an alternative objective function -- the area under the empirical receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We note that it yields consistent estimates of parameters in a generalized linear model for the risk score but does not require specifying the link function. Like logistic regression it yields …

Measuring Shared Information And Coordinated Activity In Neuronal Networks, K L. Klinkner, C R. Shalizi, Marcelo Camperi

Physics and Astronomy

Most nervous systems encode information about stimuli in the respond- ing activity of large neuronal networks. This activity often manifests itself as dynamically coordinated sequences of action potentials. Since multiple electrode recordings are now a standard tool in neuroscience research, it is important to have a measure of such network-wide behav- ioral coordination and information sharing, applicable to multiple neural spike train data. We propose a new statistic, informational coherence , which measures how much better one unit can be predicted by knowing the dynamical state of another. We argue informational coherence is a measure of association and shared information …

A Comparison Of Esomeprazole And Lansoprazole For Control Of Intragastric Ph In Patients With Symptoms Of Gastro-Oesophageal Reflux Disease, D. A. Johnson, T. Stacy, M. Ryan, T. Wootton, J. Willia, K. Hornbuckle, W. Brooks, M. Doviak

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Background: Intragastric acid suppression is the most direct measure of the pharmacodynamic efficacy of proton pump inhibitors, which are the most effective drugs for acid-related diseases.

Aim: To compare the effectiveness of once and twice daily dosing of lansoprazole and esomeprazole in controlling intragastric acidity ( target gastric pH > 4.0) over a 24-hour period.

Methods: In an open-label, two-way crossover study, 45 Helicobacter pylori-negative patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease were randomized to receive one of two regimens: 30 mg lansoprazole or esomeprazole 40 mg once daily. Intragastric pH was assessed by 24-hour pH monitoring on day 5 of each regimen. …

Symptoms Of Gastro-Oesophageal Reflux Disease And The Severity Of Obstructive Sleep Apnoea Syndrome Are Not Related In Sleep Disorders Center Patients, H.-N. Kim, R. D. Vorona, M. P. Winn, M. Doviak, D. A. Johnson, J. Catesby Ware

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Background: Studies suggest obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) frequently manifests in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and that there may be a causal relationship.

Aim: To determine the relationship between OSAS and symptoms of GERD.

Methods: Consecutive patients referred to the Sleep Disorders Center (SDC) 18 years and older with polysomnographically defined OSAS were evaluated prospectively for GERD using a validated symptoms questionnaire. The GERD and OSAS relationship was assessed by 1) determining frequency of GERD in patients with and without OSAS; 2) ascertaining the relationship between OSAS severity categories and presence of GERD; 3) examining GERD score in …

Estimating Percentile-Specific Causal Effects: A Case Study Of Micronutrient Supplementation, Birth Weight, And Infant Mortality, Francesca Dominici, Scott L. Zeger, Giovanni Parmigiani, Joanne Katz, Parul Christian

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

In developing countries, higher infant mortality is partially caused by poor maternal and fetal nutrition. Clinical trials of micronutrient supplementation are aimed at reducing the risk of infant mortality by increasing birth weight. Because infant mortality is greatest among the low birth weight infants (LBW) (• 2500 grams), an effective intervention may need to increase the birth weight among the smallest babies. Although it has been demonstrated that supplementation increases the birth weight in a trial conducted in Nepal, there is inconclusive evidence that the supplementation improves their survival. It has been hypothesized that a potential benefit of the treatment …

A Hybrid Newton-Type Method For The Linear Regression In Case-Cohort Studies, Menggang Yu, Bin Nan

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Case-cohort designs are increasingly commonly used in large epidemiological cohort studies. Nan, Yu, and Kalbeisch (2004) provided the asymptotic results for censored linear regression models in case-cohort studies. In this article, we consider computational aspects of their proposed rank based estimating methods. We show that the rank based discontinuous estimating functions for case-cohort studies are monotone, a property established for cohort data in the literature, when generalized Gehan type of weights are used. Though the estimating problem can be formulated to a linear programming problem as that for cohort data, due to its easily uncontrollable large scale even for a …

Ranking Usrds Provider-Specific Smrs From 1998-2001, Rongheng Lin, Thomas A. Louis, Susan M. Paddock, Greg Ridgeway

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Provider profiling (ranking, "league tables") is prevalent in health services research. Similarly, comparing educational institutions and identifying differentially expressed genes depend on ranking. Effective ranking procedures must be structured by a hierarchical (Bayesian) model and guided by a ranking-specific loss function, however even optimal methods can perform poorly and estimates must be accompanied by uncertainty assessments. We use the 1998-2001 Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) data from United States Renal Data System (USRDS) as a platform to identify issues and approaches. Our analyses extend Liu et al. (2004) by combining evidence over multiple years via an AR(1) model; by considering estimates …

Referent Selection Strategies In Case-Crossover Analyses Of Air Pollution Exposure Data: Implications For Bias, Holly Janes, Lianne Sheppard, Thomas Lumley

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The case-crossover design has been widely used to study the association between short term air pollution exposure and the risk of an acute adverse health event. The design uses cases only, and, for each individual, compares exposure just prior to the event with exposure at other control, or “referent” times. By making within-subject comparisons, time invariant confounders are controlled by design. Even more important in the air pollution setting is that, by matching referents to the index time, time varying confounders can also be controlled by design. Yet, the referent selection strategy is important for reasons other than control of …

Semi-Parametric Single-Index Two-Part Regression Models, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Hua Liang

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In this paper, we proposed a semi-parametric single-index two-part regression model to weaken assumptions in parametric regression methods that were frequently used in the analysis of skewed data with additional zero values. The estimation procedure for the parameters of interest in the model was easily implemented. The proposed estimators were shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Through a simulation study, we showed that the proposed estimators have reasonable finite-sample performance. We illustrated the application of the proposed method in one real study on the analysis of health care costs.

The Effect Of Naocl, Ca(Oh)2, Mta And Mtad On Root Dentin Fracture Resistance, Sunil Ilapogu

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Various materials are used for the treatment of immature teeth that have been subjected to trauma or decay. It is not well established what effect these materials may have on the immature root dentin. A concern would be the resistance to fracture of the remaining root dentin. The purpose of this study was to compare the resistance of fracture of bovine teeth treated with sodium hypochlorite, calcium hydroxide, gray MTA and gray MTA in conjunction with MTAD after certain periods of time. One hundred and ninety five freshly extracted, intact bovine incisors were prepared using a modified Haapasalo and Orstavik …