Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Renal Cryoablation: Investigation Of Periprocedural Visualization To Ols And Treatment Response Quantification, Katherine L. Dextraze

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Cryoablation for small renal tumors has demonstrated sufficient clinical efficacy over the past decade as a non-surgical nephron-sparing approach for treating renal masses for patients who are not surgical candidates. Minimally invasive percutaneous cryoablations have been performed with image guidance from CT, ultrasound, and MRI. During the MRI-guided cryoablation procedure, the interventional radiologist visually compares the iceball size on monitoring images with respect to the original tumor on separate planning images. The comparisons made during the monitoring step are time consuming, inefficient and sometimes lack the precision needed for decision making, requiring the radiologist to make further changes later in …

Correlates Of Hiv Acquisition In A Cohort Of Black Men Who Have Sex With Men In The United States: Hiv Prevention Trials Network (Hptn) 061, Beryl A. Koblin, Kenneth H. Mayer, Susan H. Eshleman, Lei Wang, Sharon B. Mannheimer, Carlos Del Rio, Steve Shoptaw, Manya Magnus, Susan Buchbinder, Leo Wilton, Ting-Yuan Liu, Vanessa Cummings, Estelle Piwowar-Manning, Sheldon D. Fields, Sam Griffith, Vanessa Elharrar, Darrell Wheeler

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background

Black men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (US) are affected by HIV at disproportionate rates compared to MSM of other race/ethnicities. Current HIV incidence estimates in this group are needed to appropriately target prevention efforts.

Methods

From July 2009 to October 2010, Black MSM reporting unprotected anal intercourse with a man in the past six months were enrolled and followed for one year in six US cities for a feasibility study of a multi-component intervention to reduce HIV infection. HIV incidence based on HIV seroconversion was calculated as number of events/100 person-years. Multivariate proportional …

Attributing Effects To Interactions, Tyler J. Vanderweele, Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Harvard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A framework is presented which allows an investigator to estimate the portion of the effect of one exposure that is attributable to an interaction with a second exposure. We show that when the two exposures are independent, the total effect of one exposure can be decomposed into a conditional effect of that exposure and a component due to interaction. The decomposition applies on difference or ratio scales. We discuss how the components can be estimated using standard regression models, and how these components can be used to evaluate the proportion of the total effect of the primary exposure attributable to …

Cardiovascular Outcome Trials In Type 2 Diabetes And The Sulphonylurea Controversy: Rationale For The Active-Comparator Carolina Trial, Julio Rosenstock, Nikolaus Marx, Steven E. Kahn, Bernard Zinman, John J. Kastelein, John M. Lachin, Erich Bluhmki, Sanjay Patel, Odd-Erik Johansen, Hans-Jurgen Woerle

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Sulphonylureas (SUs) are widely used glucose-lowering agents in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with apparent declining efficacy over time. Concerns have been raised from observational retrospective studies on the cardiovascular (CV) safety of SUs but there are few long-term data on CV outcomes from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving the use of this class of agents. Most of the observational studies and registry data are conflicting and vary with study population and methodology used for analyses. To address the SU controversy, we reviewed the recently published literature (until end of the year 2011) to evaluate the impact of SUs on …

When To Start Antiretroviral Therapy: The Need For An Evidence Base During Early Hiv Infection, James D. Lundgren, Abdel G. Babiker, Fred M. Gordin, Alvaro H. Borges, James D. Neaton

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background

Strategies for use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have traditionally focused on providing treatment to persons who stand to benefit immediately from initiating the therapy. There is global consensus that any HIV+ person with CD4 counts less than 350 cells/μl should initiate ART. However, it remains controversial whether ART is indicated in asymptomatic HIV-infected persons with CD4 counts above 350 cells/μl, or whether it is more advisable to defer initiation until the CD4 count has dropped to 350 cells/μl. The question of when the best time is to initiate ART during early HIV infection has always been vigorously debated. The …

Association Between Adverse Childhood Experiences And Diagnosis Of Cancer, Monique J. Brown, Leroy R. Thacker, Steven A. Cohen

Faculty Publications

Objective: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are linked to multiple adverse health outcomes. This study examined the association between ACEs and cancer diagnosis.

Methods: Data from the 2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey were used. The BRFSS is the largest ongoing telephone health survey, conducted in all US states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and provides data on a variety of health issues among the non-institutionalized adult population. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to derive components for ACEs. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to provide adjusted odds ratios (OR) and …

Restricted Likelihood Ratio Tests For Functional Effects In The Functional Linear Model, Bruce J. Swihart, Jeff Goldsmith, Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

The goal of our article is to provide a transparent, robust, and computationally feasible statistical approach for testing in the context of scalar-on-function linear regression models. In particular, we are interested in testing for the necessity of functional effects against standard linear models. Our methods are motivated by and applied to a large longitudinal study involving diffusion tensor imaging of intracranial white matter tracts in a susceptible cohort. In the context of this study, we conduct hypothesis tests that are motivated by anatomical knowledge and which support recent findings regarding the relationship between cognitive impairment and white matter demyelination. R-code …

Augmentation Of Propensity Scores For Medical Records-Based Research, Mikel Aickin

COBRA Preprint Series

Therapeutic research based on electronic medical records suffers from the possibility of various kinds of confounding. Over the past 30 years, propensity scores have increasingly been used to try to reduce this possibility. In this article a gap is identified in the propensity score methodology, and it is proposed to augment traditional treatment-propensity scores with outcome-propensity scores, thereby removing all other aspects of common causes from the analysis of treatment effects.

Maternal Smoking, Weight Status And Preecalmpsia And Eclampsia Risk Among Women Living In San Bernardino County, Fiona Bedelia Lewis

Loma Linda University Electronic Theses, Dissertations & Projects

Preeclampsia is defined as pregnancy-induced hypertension affecting between 2% and 8% of pregnancies and accounting for about 10-15% of maternal deaths worldwide. Eclampsia is defined as the occurrence of one or more episodes of seizures in a pregnant woman related only to a preeclampsia diagnosis. Preeclampsia, if poorly managed, can progress to eclampsia resulting in injury and death to both mother and infant. The etiology of preeclampsia is not completely understood. Oxidative stress leading to abnormal placenta development and endothelial dysfunction are thought to be key components in the biological mechanism of preeclampsia.

Modifiable risk factors include maternal body weight …

Session 4-2-A: Taking The Disorder Out Of Gambling Disorder, Denise F. Quirk, Colin M. Hodgen

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

DSM‐5 Gambling Disorder

A. Persistent and recurrent problematic gambling behavior leading to clinically significant impairment or distress, as indicated by four (or more) of the following in a 12‐month period:

A. Persistent and recurrent maladaptive gambling behavior as indicated by five (or more) of the following:

Session 4-1-D: The Experience Of Lotto 6/49 And The Capacity To Trust: Elements For An Anthropology Of Gambling, Jocelyn Gadbois

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Anthropologists study Lotto 6/49 as an experience.

Lévy-Bruhl tries to compare the magical beliefs of serious gamblers with the magical beliefs of individuals he refers to as the ‘‘primitives’’ (1924).

After that, Henslin studied the superstitions of St.Louis taxi drivers who play craps during their work breaks and compared them to Skinner’s pigeon (1967).

I wanted in my thesis to help anthropology to reconstruct lost knowledge regarding gambling and beliefs about magic in capitalist society.

Session 4-1-C: Social Media Gambling Games: Impact On Young People, Sally Gainsbury, Jeffrey L. Derevensky

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Key concerns for youth

Normalisation & positive impressions of gambling

Misrepresenting the odds of winning

Encouraging transition to real money gambling

Development of problems

Session 4-1-A: The Problem Gambling Center, Robert Hunter

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Provides information and statistics on the Problem Gambling Center.

Session 3-4-A: Public Opinion And Problem Gambling, Don Feeney

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

What do we need to know?

How does the public perceive addiction?

Do they stigmatize addiction?

Do they recognize gambling addiction?

Do they understand the causes?

Do they understand the solutions?

Do they know where to go for help?

Do they know preventative factors?

What are they willing to do?

What messages are credible and appealing?

Session 3-3-A: An Improved Pathways Development Model Of Problem Gambling: A Summary Of 11 Studies In Hong Kong And Macau, Amy Chiu Sau Lam, Alice Chan Ying Ying, Chi Chuen Chan

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

The rationale of this study came from a casual meeting of our supervisor Dr. Chan Chi Chuen and Professor Blaszczynski on a bus after the 2009 Reno conference.

On the bus, C. C. promised Mr. Blaszczynski that he would validate the pathways model in Hong Kong and Macau. And in the next 5 years, Dr. C.C. Chan and his students conducted 11 research projects on problem gambling in Hong Kong and Macau.

Purposes of current study

• To arrive on a summary finding from 11 studies on problem gambling
• To validate the pathways development model proposed by Blaszczynski & Nower …

Session 3-3-C: The National Longitudinal Study Of Gambling Behaviour (Nlsgb): Preliminary Results, Andrew Dellis, Andre Hofmeyr, Harold Kincaid, Don Ross

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

The NLSGB tracked 300 gamblers over a 15-month period.

A comprehensive survey instrument was compiled to analyse factors that might influence changes in risk of gambling problems over time.

The study was conducted in the four major metropolitan areas of South Africa: Johannesburg, Tshwane, Durban and Cape Town. We will discuss the study’s design and implementation and some preliminary results.

Session 3-3-A: The ‘Circles Concept’ Of Gambling Addiction: An Empowered Framework For Change, Harry B. Mayr

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The original ‘Circles Concept of (Gambling) Addiction’ was developed by Harry Mayr in 1982, while working as an addictions counsellor in a community-based health centre. It has always been a ‘user friendly’ concept … applicable and understood by people from all cultures, across all ages, and with or without an addiction issue. Years later, people have informed Mr Mayr how they still remember ‘those circles’, and how the concept helped them.

The ‘Circles Concept of (Gambling) Addiction’ is therefore a concept remembered as much for its visual cues as its verbal explanation – and thus applicable across languages, cognitive and …

Session 3-1-E: Segmenting Slot Machine Players: A Factor-Cluster Analysis, Stowe Shoemaker, Dina Marie Zemke

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Overall objectives of the study:

Understand the following aspects of slot players:

– Demographic profile

– Motivations to play

– Behavioral characteristics while playing

– Factors important in choosing a game to play

– Attitudes toward progressives

– Desire for themed games

Session 3-1-E: Anatomy Of A Jackpot: Characteristics Of Purchasers Of Large Jackpot Lottery Tickets, Todd Maki, Don Feeney

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Jackpot “Run” & Survey Design

Record breaking Powerball jackpot

Started at $40 million on Oct 6, 2012

Rolled 15 times to reach $550 million Nov 28, 2012

MN Sold $25.2 million worth of tickets

Sales from all lotteries totaled $1.3 billion

Internet Survey

1,000 Minnesota adults

In the field Dec 14 to 18

Took, on average, about 10 minutes to complete

Representative of the general population (age and gender)

Conducted by Ipsos

Session 3-1-C: Gambling Behaviors Among American College Student-Athletes: Results From The 2012 National Collegiate Athletic Association Study, Tom Paskus, Jeffrey L. Derevensky, Caroline Temcheff

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Why Is the NCAA Concerned about Student-Athlete Gambling?

Student-athlete well-being

Contest integrity

Ensemble-Based Methods For Forecasting Census In Hospital Units, Devin C. Koestler, Hernando Ombao, Jesse Bender

Dartmouth Scholarship

The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, …

Session 2-4-C: Addressing The Related Epidemics Of Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy And Adolescent Problem Gambling, William S. Mallios, R. R. Mallios

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Information and statistics addressing the epidemics of financial and mathematical illiteracy and adolescent problem gambling.

Session 2-4-G: Gambling Segmentation Studies A General Approach To Segmentation For Various Gambling Agencies, Paul Lauzon, Don Feeney

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

What is Segmentation?

A segmentation groups a market or population into meaningful subgroups

Segment members share characteristics and market influences that cause them to have similar product and/or service needs

Each segment is unique from the other segments

Session 2-3-C: Sports Betting Of Adolescents In Croatia: From Favorable Environment To Psychosocial Consequences, Dora Dodig, Neven Ricijas Phd, Valentina Kranzelic, Aleksandra Huic

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Social context

Expansion of places registered for gambling, especially sports betting

Croatian Law on Games of Chance (2009.)

• Sports betting is illegal for minors (<18)
• Minimum 200 meters from schools

Session 2-3-C: How Do Teenagers’ Differentiate Computer Gaming From Gambling, Margaret Carran, Julia Hornle, Mark Griffiths

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Aims of the study

Part I – qualitative focus groups to find out:

• How some of London adolescents view gambling following the significant expansion of perceived opportunities to gamble in UK since 2007
• What they think gambling is and whether it differs from what law considers gambling to be
• What they think about the similarities and differences between computer games and monetary forms of gambling and in particular whether they recognise gambling types activities within computer games; and
• What they know about law relating to gambling and how, if at all, it influences their behaviour.
• To identify the main theme …

Session 2-3-G: The Consumption Screen For Problem Gambling (Cspg): Why A Penchant For Big Macs May Predict Appetites For Gambling, Matthew Rockloff, Matthew Browne Browne

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Evidence for a common underlying trait: “Consumptiveness”

Consumptiveness: “A persistent orientation towards acquiring and using resources in excess of a proper accounting of their costs and benefits - resulting in harm.”

simple behaviors that result in immediate, sensation-oriented rewards

• alcohol, caffeine, smoking, illicit drugs, energy-rich foods (including salt)
• Gambling

Session 2-3-C: Adolescent Slot Machines Players: Experiences, Motivation And Cognitive Distortions, Neven Ricijas Phd, Dora Dodig, Valentina Kranzelic, Aleksandra Huic

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Aims of this research

1. to explore how often high-schools students play slot machines

2. to explore how often adolescent slot machine players play other games of chance

3. to explore their main motivation and beliefs related with gambling

4. to explore their gambling experiences and behavioral patterns

Session 2-3-F: Gaming Applications Of A Forgotten Distribution, Rohan J. Dalpatadu, Ashok K. Singh

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

The bonus game has become a very important part of the slot machine, as indicated by a large number of patent applications and patents (Bennett, 2000; Slomiany and Grupp, 2000; Vancurra, 2000; Baerlocher et al, 2002; Jaffe et al, 2002; Cannon and Donovan, 2003; Dickerson, 2005). Therefore, probability distributions suitable for developing games are very much in need. In this study, we illustrate how a forgotten discrete probability distribution, viz. the negative hypergeometric distribution, can be used to develop bonus games for slot machines, and also to analyze existing bonus games. The mean and the variance for this distribution …

Session 2-2-A: Effectiveness Of Brief Interventions For Problem Gambling: A Randomized Controlled Trial, Max Abbott

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Introduction

Problem gambling a significant public health and social issue

Significant investment in publicly funded intervention services (Helpline, face-to-face counselling)

No formal evaluation of effectiveness, in general or with specific groups

Session 2-2-F: Combining Forecasts To Predict The Outcome Of Horseraces, Stefan Lessmann, Ming-Chien Sung, Johnnie E.V. Johnson, Tiejun Ma, Chung-Ching Tai

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

A variety of methods are often employed to forecast the outcome of sports events and to shed light upon the factors that influence contestants’ winning prospects. We explore the potential of combining forecasts to improve the accuracy of sports event prediction. Successful combination usually involves accurate and diverse individual predictions. Further, to accurately predict the outcome of sports events it is important to effectively account for the intensity of rivalry among contestants. Consequently, we develop modeling procedures and practices for addressing these challenges: First, in order to construct a large and diverse library of base models, we employ a range …