Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Adventuring Into Complexity By Exploring Data: From Complicity To Sustainability, Tim Lutz

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Problems of sustainability are typically represented by major present-day challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and environmental and social injustice. Framed this way, sustainable lives and societies depend on finding solutions to each problem. From another perspective, there is only one problem behind them all, stated by Gregory Bateson as: “…the difference between how nature works and the way people think,” and complexity provides a way to define and approach this problem. I extend Edgar Morin’s conceptions of restricted and general complexity into pedagogy to address problems of simplicity and reductionist teaching. The proposed pedagogy is based on long …

Comparing Radiation Shielding Potential Of Liquid Propellants To Water For Application In Space, John Czaplewski

Master's Theses

The radiation environment in space is a threat that engineers and astronauts need to mitigate as exploration into the solar system expands. Passive shielding involves placing as much material between critical components and the radiation environment as possible. However, with mass and size budgets, it is important to select efficient materials to provide shielding. Currently, NASA and other space agencies plan on using water as a shield against radiation since it is already necessary for human missions. Water has been tested thoroughly and has been proven to be effective. Liquid propellants are needed for every mission and also share similar …

The Wargaming Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, William T. Deberry

Theses and Dissertations

This research presents the Wargaming Commodity Course of Action Automated Analysis Method (WCCAAM), a novel approach to assist wargame commanders in developing and analyzing courses of action (COAs) through semi-automation of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP). MDMP is a seven-step iterative method that commanders and mission partners follow to build an operational course of action to achieve strategic objectives. MDMP requires time, resources, and coordination – all competing items the commander weighs to make the optimal decision. WCCAAM receives the MDMP's Mission Analysis phase as input, converts the wargame into a directed graph, processes a multi-commodity flow algorithm on …

Optimizing Critical Values And Combining Axes For Multi-Axial Neck Injury Criteria, Ethan J. Gaston

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force employs ejection seats in its high-performance aircraft. While these systems are intended to ensure aircrew safety, the ejection process subjects the aircrew to potentially injurious forces. System validation includes evaluation of forces against a standard which is linked to the probability of injury. The Muti-Axial Neck Injury Criteria (MANIC) was developed to account for forces in all six degrees of freedom. Unfortunately, the MANIC is applied to each of the three linear input directions separately and applies different criterion values for each direction. These three separate criteria create a lack of clarity regarding acceptable neck loading, leading …

Investigating The Impacts Of Crash Prediction Models On Quantifying Safety Effectiveness Of Adaptive Signal Control Systems, Weimin Jin, Mashrur Chowdhury, Sakib Mahmud Khan, Patrick Gerard

Publications

Introduction: Adaptive Signal Control System (ASCS) can improve both operational and safety benefits at signalized corridors. Methods: This paper develops a series of models accounting for model forms and possible predictors and implements these models in Empirical Bayes (EB) and Fully Bayesian (FB) frameworks for ASCS safety evaluation studies. Different models are validated in terms of the ability to reduce the potential bias and variance of prediction and improve the safety effectiveness estimation accuracy using real-world crash data from non-ASCS sites. This paper then develops the safety effectiveness of ASCS at six different corridors with a total of 65 signalized …

Machine Learning Morphisms: A Framework For Designing And Analyzing Machine Learning Work Ows, Applied To Separability, Error Bounds, And 30-Day Hospital Readmissions, Eric Zenon Cawi

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

A machine learning workflow is the sequence of tasks necessary to implement a machine learning application, including data collection, preprocessing, feature engineering, exploratory analysis, and model training/selection. In this dissertation we propose the Machine Learning Morphism (MLM) as a mathematical framework to describe the tasks in a workflow. The MLM is a tuple consisting of: Input Space, Output Space, Learning Morphism, Parameter Prior, Empirical Risk Function. This contains the information necessary to learn the parameters of the learning morphism, which represents a workflow task. In chapter 1, we give a short review of typical tasks present in a workflow, as …

Computational Modeling For Decision-Making Under Climate Change Uncertainty: Reservoir Simulation Game, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

Almost every decision you make is under uncertainty. Will I need a rain jacket in the afternoon? Will they say yes if I ask them out? Is 1 hour enough time to finish this assignment? Oftentimes, we can use computational modeling to simulate different scenarios of what might happen in the future to inform what decisions are best on average, or what decisions minimize the worst case outcome. For example, you could decide what player to draft for your Fantasy Football team by simulating player performance. In this activity, we will simulate how much water to release from a dam …

Biofilm And Cell Adhesion Strength On Dental Implant Surfaces Via The Laser Spallation Technique, James D. Boyd, Arnold J. Stromberg, Craig S. Miller, Martha E. Grady

Statistics Faculty Publications

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study are to quantify the adhesion strength differential between an oral bacterial biofilm and an osteoblast-like cell monolayer to a dental implant-simulant surface and develop a metric that quantifies the biocompatible effect of implant surfaces on bacterial and cell adhesion.

METHODS: High-amplitude short-duration stress waves generated by laser pulse absorption are used to spall bacteria and cells from titanium substrates. By carefully controlling laser fluence and calibration of laser fluence with applied stress, the adhesion difference between Streptococcus mutans biofilms and MG 63 osteoblast-like cell monolayers on smooth and rough titanium substrates is obtained. The …

Predictability Of Missing Data Theory To Improve U.S. Estimator’S Unreliable Data Problem, Tomeka S. Williams

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Since the topic of improving data quality has not been addressed for the U.S. defense cost estimating discipline beyond changes in public policy, the goal of the study was to close this gap and provide empirical evidence that supports expanding options to improve software cost estimation data matrices for U.S. defense cost estimators. The purpose of this quantitative study was to test and measure the level of predictive accuracy of missing data theory techniques that were referenced as traditional approaches in the literature, compare each theories’ results to a complete data matrix used in support of the U.S. defense cost …

Design Project: Smart Headband, John Michel, Jack Durkin, Noah Lewis

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Concussion in sports is a prevalent medical issue. It can be difficult for medical professionals to diagnose concussions. With the fast pace nature of many sports, and the damaging effects of concussions, it is important that any concussion risks are assessed immediately. There is a growing trend of wearable technology that collects data such as steps and provides the wearer with in-depth information regarding their performance. The Smart Headband project created a wearable that can record impact data and provide the wearer with a detailed analysis on their risk of sustaining a concussion. The Smart Headband uses accelerometers and gyroscopes …

Planning Algorithms Under Uncertainty For A Team Of A Uav And A Ugv For Underground Exploration, Matteo De Petrillo

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Robots’ autonomy has been studied for decades in different environments, but only recently, thanks to the advance in technology and interests, robots for underground exploration gained more attention. Due to the many challenges that any robot must face in such harsh environments, this remains an challenging and complex problem to solve.

As technology became cheaper and more accessible, the use of robots for underground ex- ploration increased. One of the main challenges is concerned with robot localization, which is not easily provided by any Global Navigation Services System (GNSS). Many developments have been achieved for indoor mobile ground robots, making …

Review Of Forecasting Univariate Time-Series Data With Application To Water-Energy Nexus Studies & Proposal Of Parallel Hybrid Sarima-Ann Model, Cory Sumner Yarrington

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The necessary materials for most human activities are water and energy. Integrated analysis to accurately forecast water and energy consumption enables the implementation of efficient short and long-term resource management planning as well as expanding policy and research possibilities for the supportive infrastructure. However, the integral relationship between water and energy (water-energy nexus) poses a difficult problem for modeling. The accessibility and physical overlay of data sets related to water-energy nexus is another main issue for a reliable water-energy consumption forecast. The framework of urban metabolism (UM) uses several types of data to build a global view and highlight issues …

A Model For Inhalation Of Infectious Aerosol Contaminants In An Aircraft Passenger Cabin, Bert A. Silich

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Aerosol contamination of an aircraft cabin by infectious passengers is a concern of passengers, aircrew and the aviation industry. This may be especially important during a pandemic, such as COVID-19, where the full extent of aerosol transmission is not well understood. A statistical method to determine the number of infectious passengers on board along with a mathematical model estimating the contaminant concentration of aerosols in the cabin and the number of inhaled infectious particles by passengers is presented. An example is used to demonstrated how the results can be estimated during normal operations and emergency conditions with malfunctions of the …

Impact Of Hemodynamic Vortex Spatial And Temporal Characteristics On Analysis Of Intracranial Aneurysms, Kevin W. Sunderland

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Subarachnoid hemorrhage is a potentially devastating pathological condition in which bleeding occurs into the space surrounding the brain. One of the prominent sources of subarachnoid hemorrhage are intracranial aneurysms (IA): degenerative, irregular expansions of area(s) of the cerebral vasculature. In the event of IA rupture, the resultant subarachnoid hemorrhage ends in patient mortality occurring in ~50% of cases, with survivors enduring significant neurological damage with physical or cognitive impairment. The seriousness of IA rupture drives a degree of clinical interest in understanding these conditions that promote both the development and possible rupture of the vascular malformations. Current metrics for the …

A Transdisciplinary Analysis Of Just Transition Pathways To 100% Renewable Electricity, Adewale Aremu Adesanya

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

The transition to using clean, affordable, and reliable electrical energy is critical for enhancing human opportunities and capabilities. In the United States, many states and localities are engaging in this transition despite the lack of ambitious federal policy support. This research builds on the theoretical framework of the multilevel perspective (MLP) of sociotechnical transitions as well as the concept of energy justice to investigate potential pathways to 100 percent renewable energy (RE) for electricity provision in the U.S. This research seeks to answer the question: what are the technical, policy, and perceptual pathways, barriers, and opportunities for just transition to …

Superresolution Enhancement With Active Convolved Illumination, Anindya Ghoshroy

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

The first two decades of the 21st century witnessed the emergence of “metamaterials”. The prospect of unrestricted control over light-matter interactions was a major contributing factor leading to the realization of new technologies and advancement of existing ones. While the field certainly does not lack innovative applications, widespread commercial deployment may still be several decades away. Fabrication of sophisticated 3d micro and nano structures, specially for telecommunications and optical frequencies will require a significant advancement of current technologies. More importantly, the effects of absorption and scattering losses will require a robust solution since this renders any conceivable application of metamaterials …

Incorporating Shear Resistance Into Debris Flow Triggering Model Statistics, Noah J. Lyman

Master's Theses

Several regions of the Western United States utilize statistical binary classification models to predict and manage debris flow initiation probability after wildfires. As the occurrence of wildfires and large intensity rainfall events increase, so has the frequency in which development occurs in the steep and mountainous terrain where these events arise. This resulting intersection brings with it an increasing need to derive improved results from existing models, or develop new models, to reduce the economic and human impacts that debris flows may bring. Any development or change to these models could also theoretically increase the ease of collection, processing, and …

Data Analysis To Evaluate The Performance Of Breathing Masks Used For Filtering Nano-Level Particles At Manufacturing Sites, Gracia M. Dardano

Honors College Theses

The work performed in this research aims to evaluate the performance of commercially available breathing masks in filtering airborne nanoparticles at manufacturing sites. Nanoparticles are found virtually anywhere, from dust in a worksite to a simple sneeze. Therefore, they pose a substantial threat to human health as their velocity and volatility are high. This research analyzes if current efforts of breathing masks to hinder nanoparticles are effective, especially at manufacturing sites. Data has been collected in order to analyze the behavior of nanoparticles and to measure nanoparticle levels at manufacturing sites and its working environment. Data is statistical in nature …

Cost Estimating Using A New Learning Curve Theory For Non-Constant Production Rates, Dakotah Hogan, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

Traditional learning curve theory assumes a constant learning rate regardless of the number of units produced. However, a collection of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that learning rates decrease as more units are produced in some cases. These diminishing learning rates cause traditional learning curves to underestimate required resources, potentially resulting in cost overruns. A diminishing learning rate model, namely Boone’s learning curve, was recently developed to model this phenomenon. This research confirms that Boone’s learning curve systematically reduced error in modeling observed learning curves using production data from 169 Department of Defense end-items. However, high amounts of variability in …

An Explainable And Statistically Validated Ensemble Clustering Model Applied To The Identification Of Traumatic Brain Injury Subgroups, Dacosta Yeboah, Louis Steinmeister, Daniel B. Hier, Bassam Hadi, Donald C. Wunsch, Gayla R. Olbricht, Tayo Obafemi-Ajayi

Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

We present a framework for an explainable and statistically validated ensemble clustering model applied to Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI). The objective of our analysis is to identify patient injury severity subgroups and key phenotypes that delineate these subgroups using varied clinical and computed tomography data. Explainable and statistically-validated models are essential because a data-driven identification of subgroups is an inherently multidisciplinary undertaking. In our case, this procedure yielded six distinct patient subgroups with respect to mechanism of injury, severity of presentation, anatomy, psychometric, and functional outcome. This framework for ensemble cluster analysis fully integrates statistical methods at several stages of …

Comparison Of Longitudinal Changes In Resting State Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Between Alzheimer’S And Healthy Controls, Berk Can Yilmaz

Theses

Resting State Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (rs-fMRI) is a technique that is widely used for analyzing brain function using different approaches and methods. This study involves rs-fMRI analysis of Blood Oxygenation Level Dependent (BOLD) signals acquired from Alzheimer’s disease (AD) Patients and Healthy Controls (HC). Each subject in the study had both functional and anatomical images with at least one rs-fMRI scan with their Anatomical (T1) scans. Previous rs-fMRI studies have demonstrated that AD shows differences in Amplitude of Low Frequency (<0.1 Hz) Fluctuations (ALFF), and Regional Homogeneity (ReHo) measures according to HCs.

The aim of the study is to investigate individual and group level differences using ReHo and mALFF related …

High Wind Alerts: A System Created With Observations From The X-Band Teaching And Research Radar, Lauren Warner

The Journal of Purdue Undergraduate Research

Following the August 13, 2011, Indiana State Fair stage collapse tragedy, caused by a wind gust from an approaching thunderstorm, Purdue University enforced a wind speed restriction of 30 mph (13 m s-1) for tents at outdoor events. During these events, volunteers stand outside with handheld anemometers, measuring and reporting when the wind speeds exceed this limit. In this study, we report testing of a new system to automate high-wind alerts based on observations from a Doppler radar, the X-band Teaching and Research Radar (XTRRA), near Purdue’s campus. XTRRA scans over campus at low elevations approximately every 5 minutes. Using …

Evaluation Of Standard And Semantically-Augmented Distance Metrics For Neurology Patients, Daniel B. Hier, Jonathan Kopel, Steven U. Brint, Donald C. Wunsch, Gayla R. Olbricht, Sima Azizi, Blaine Allen

Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Background: Patient distances can be calculated based on signs and symptoms derived from an ontological hierarchy. There is controversy as to whether patient distance metrics that consider the semantic similarity between concepts can outperform standard patient distance metrics that are agnostic to concept similarity. The choice of distance metric can dominate the performance of classification or clustering algorithms. Our objective was to determine if semantically augmented distance metrics would outperform standard metrics on machine learning tasks.

Methods: We converted the neurological findings from 382 published neurology cases into sets of concepts with corresponding machine-readable codes. We calculated patient distances by …

Analyzing The Fractal Dimension Of Various Musical Pieces, Nathan Clark

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

One of the most common tools for evaluating data is regression. This technique, widely used by industrial engineers, explores linear relationships between predictors and the response. Each observation of the response is a fixed linear combination of the predictors with an added error element. The method is built on the assumption that this error is normally distributed across all observations and has a mean of zero. In some cases, it has been found that the inherent variation is not the result of a random variable, but is instead the result of self-symmetric properties of the observations. For data with these …

Nanoceria Distribution And Effects Are Mouse-Strain Dependent, Robert A. Yokel, Michael T. Tseng, D. Allan Butterfield, Matthew L. Hancock, Eric A. Grulke, Jason M. Unrine, Arnold J. Stromberg, Alan K. Dozier, Uschi M. Graham

Pharmaceutical Sciences Faculty Publications

Prior studies showed nanoparticle clearance was different in C57BL/6 versus BALB/c mice, strains prone to Th1 and Th2 immune responses, respectively. Objective: Assess nanoceria (cerium oxide, CeO₂ nanoparticle) uptake time course and organ distribution, cellular and oxidative stress, and bioprocessing as a function of mouse strain. Methods: C57BL/6 and BALB/c female mice were i.p. injected with 10 mg/kg nanoceria or vehicle and terminated 0.5 to 24 h later. Organs were collected for cerium analysis; light and electron microscopy with elemental mapping; and protein carbonyl, IL-1β, and caspase-1 determination. Results: Peripheral organ cerium significantly increased, generally more …

"A Comparison Of Variable Selection Methods Using Bootstrap Samples From Environmental Metal Mixture Data", Paul-Yvann Djamen

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In this thesis, I studied a newly developed variable selection method SODA, and three customarily used variable selection methods: LASSO, Elastic net, and Random forest for environmental mixture data. The motivating datasets have neuro-developmental status as responses and metal measurements and demographic variables as covariates. The challenges for variable selections include (1) many measured metal concentrations are highly correlated, (2) there are many possible ways of modeling interactions among the metals, (3) the relationships between the outcomes and explanatory variables are possibly nonlinear, (4) the signal to noise ratio in the real data may be low. To compare these methods …

Methods Of Uncertainty Quantification For Physical Parameters, Kellin Rumsey

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an umbrella term referring to a broad class of methods which typically involve the combination of computational modeling, experimental data and expert knowledge to study a physical system. A parameter, in the usual statistical sense, is said to be physical if it has a meaningful interpretation with respect to the physical system. Physical parameters can be viewed as inherent properties of a physical process and have a corresponding true value. Statistical inference for physical parameters is a challenging problem in UQ due to the inadequacy of the computer model. In this thesis, we provide a comprehensive …

Models For Data Analysis In Accelerated Reliability Growth, Cesar Alexander Ruiz Torres

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This work develops new methodologies for analyzing accelerated testing data in the context of a reliability growth program for a complex multi-component system. Each component has multiple failure modes and the growth program consists of multiple test-fix stages with corrective actions applied at the end of each stage. The first group of methods considers time-to-failure data and test covariates for predicting the final reliability of the system. The time-to-failure of each failure mode is assumed to follow a Weibull distribution with rate parameter proportional to an acceleration factor. Acceleration factors are specific to each failure mode and test covariates. We …

Combining Machine Learning And Empirical Engineering Methods Towards Improving Oil Production Forecasting, Andrew J. Allen

Master's Theses

Current methods of production forecasting such as decline curve analysis (DCA) or numerical simulation require years of historical production data, and their accuracy is limited by the choice of model parameters. Unconventional resources have proven challenging to apply traditional methods of production forecasting because they lack long production histories and have extremely variable model parameters. This research proposes a data-driven alternative to reservoir simulation and production forecasting techniques. We create a proxy-well model for predicting cumulative oil production by selecting statistically significant well completion parameters and reservoir information as independent predictor variables in regression-based models. Then, principal component analysis (PCA) …

Applications Of Portable Libs For Actinide Analysis, Ashwin P. Rao, John D. Auxier Ii, Dung Vu, Michael B. Shattan

Faculty Publications

A portable LIBS device was used for rapid elemental impurity analysis of plutonium alloys. This device demonstrates the potential for fast, accurate in-situ chemical analysis and could significantly reduce the fabrication time of plutonium alloys.