Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Hazard Assessment Of Meteoroid Impact For The Design Of Lunar Habitats, Herta Paola Montoya, Shirley Dyke, Julio A. Ramirez, Antonio Bobet, H. Jay Melosh, Daniel Gomez

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

The design of self-sustaining lunar habitats is a challenge primarily due to the Moon’s lack of atmospheric protection and hazardous environment. To assure safe habitats that will lead to further lunar and space exploration, it is necessary to assess the different hazards faced on the Moon such as meteoroid impacts, extreme temperatures, and radiation. In particular, meteoroids pose a risk to lunar structures due to their high frequency of occurrence and hypervelocity impact. Continuous meteoroid impacts can harm structural elements and vital equipment compromising the well-being of lunar inhabitants. This study is focused on the hazard conceptualization and quantification of …

Development Of Lower Rio Grande River Water Quality Transportation Numerical Model For Bi-National River Management, Jose O. Gonzalez

Theses and Dissertations

Traditionally, water quality modelling has focused on modelling individual water bodies. However, water quality management problems must be analyzed at the larger scale to include influences from various water bodies that are interconnected. This paper provides a study on the hydrologic and quality transportation calculation by developing a hydrodynamic (unsteady state) channel routing model using a water-balanced approach. A one dimension Lagrangian river model was developed and applied to the 210 plus miles for the lower Rio Grande River Basin from the Falcon Dam to the head water of Brownsville that pours onto the Gulf of Mexico. This model can …

Generalized Clusterwise Regression For Simultaneous Estimation Of Optimal Pavement Clusters And Performance Models, Mukesh Khadka

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The existing state-of-the-art approach of Clusterwise Regression (CR) to estimate pavement performance models (PPMs) pre-specifies explanatory variables without testing their significance; as an input, this approach requires the number of clusters for a given data set. Time-consuming ‘trial and error’ methods are required to determine the optimal number of clusters. A common objective function is the minimization of the total sum of squared errors (SSE). Given that SSE decreases monotonically as a function of the number of clusters, the optimal number of clusters with minimum SSE always is the total number of data points. Hence, the minimization of SSE is …

Case Study For Guided Project In Stochastic Hydrology, Meghna Babbar-Sebens

All ECSTATIC Materials

Attached are two guided project activities for hydrology and climate data of Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana, USA. The zip files have flow and precipitation datasets at daily, monthly, and annual time scales.

Statistical Study For Bridge Deterioration Across Alabama, Cameron Mcwilliams

Summer Community of Scholars Posters (RCEU and HCR Combined Programs)

No abstract provided.

Audio-Based Productivity Forecasting Of Construction Cyclic Activities, Chris A. Sabillon

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

Due to its high cost, project managers must be able to monitor the performance of construction heavy equipment promptly. This cannot be achieved through traditional management techniques, which are based on direct observation or on estimations from historical data. Some manufacturers have started to integrate their proprietary technologies, but construction contractors are unlikely to have a fleet of entirely new and single manufacturer equipment for this to represent a solution. Third party automated approaches include the use of active sensors such as accelerometers and gyroscopes, passive technologies such as computer vision and image processing, and audio signal processing. Hitherto, most …

Applying Ahp And Clustering Approaches For Public Transportation Decisionmaking: A Case Study Of Isfahan City, Alireza Salavati, Hossein Haghshenas, Bahador Ghadirifaraz, Jamshid Laghaei, Ghodrat Eftekhari

Journal of Public Transportation

The main purpose of this paper is to define appropriate criteria for the systematic approach to evaluate and prioritize multiple candidate corridors for public transport investment simultaneously to serve travel demand, regarding supply of current public transportation system and road network conditions of Isfahan, Iran. To optimize resource allocation, policymakers need to identify proper corridors to implement a public transportation system. In fact, the main question is to adopt the best public transportation system for each main corridor of Isfahan. In this regard, 137 questionnaires were completed by experts, directors, and policymakers of Isfahan to identify goals and objectives in …

Longitudinal Tidal Dispersion Coefficient Estimation And Total Suspended Solids Transport Characterization In The James River, Beatriz Eugenia Patino

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The longitudinal dispersion coefficient is a parameter used to evaluate the effect of cross-sectional variations on substance mixing mechanisms in estuaries influenced by tide, wind and internal density variations. Considering a two dimensional approach, this study aims at evaluating a tidal area of the lower James River at approximately 19 miles upstream from the mouth at the Chesapeake Bay, in the City of Newport News, and applies an experimental procedure based on in-situ salinity concentrations to estimate the dispersion coefficient in the area where receives a discharge from the HRSD James River Wastewater Treatment Plant, and further characterizes Total Suspended …

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

Quantifying Transit Access In New York City: Formulating An Accessibility Index For Analyzing Spatial And Social Patterns Of Public Transportation, Maxwell S. Siegel

Theses and Dissertations

This paper aims to analyze accessibility within New York City’s transportation system through creating unique accessibility indices. Indices are detailed and implemented using GIS, analyzing the distribution of transit need and access. Regression analyses are performed highlighting relationships between demographics and accessibility and recommendations for transit expansion are presented.

Interdisciplinary Modeling For Water-Related Issues Graduate Course, Laurel Saito, Alexander Fernald, Timothy Link

All ECSTATIC Materials

The science and management of aquatic ecosystems is inherently interdisciplinary, with issues associated with hydrology, atmospheric science, water quality, geochemistry, sociology, economics, environmental science, and ecology. Addressing water resources issues in any one discipline invariably involves effects that concern other disciplines, and attempts to address one issue often have consequences that exacerbate existing issues or concerns, or create new ones (Jørgensen et al. 1992; Lackey et al. 1975; Straskraba 1994) due to the strongly interactive nature of key processes (Christensen et al. 1996). Thus, research and management of aquatic ecosystems must be interdisciplinary to be most effective, but such truly …

Spatial Analysis Of Passenger Vehicle Use And Ownership And Its Impact On The Sustainability Of Highway Infrastructure Funding, Matthew Volovski

Open Access Dissertations

Across the United States, the sustainability of highway funding is at risk due to increasing need and uncertainty in the factors that drive revenue. Past studies on highway funding sustainability have identified that the root cause of changing highway revenue are the shifts in social demographics and economic characteristics. Unfortunately, from the revenue perspective (the focus of this dissertation), the ability of previous research to account for these factors has been rather limited in two ways; first, the inability to accurately assess current regional vehicle use (a typical prerequisite for statistical modeling of highway revenues) due to difficulties associated with …

Voc Emissions From Beef Feedlot Pen Surfaces As Affected By Within-Pen Location, Moisture And Temperature, Bryan L. Woodbury, John E. Gilley, David B. Parker, David B. Marx, Roger A. Eigenberg

Department of Statistics: Faculty Publications

A laboratory study was conducted to evaluate the effects of pen location, moisture, and temperature on emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from surface materials obtained from feedlot pens where beef cattle were fed a diet containing 30% wet distillers grain plus solubles. Surface materials were collected from the feed trough (bunk), drainage, and raised areas (mounds) within three feedlot pens. The surface materials were mixed with water to represent dry, wet, or saturated conditions and then incubated at temperatures of 5, 15, 25 and 35 C. A wind tunnel and gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer were used to collect and quantify …

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Reliability-Based Design And Acceptance Protocol For Driven Piles, Joseph Jabo

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The current use of the Arkansas Standard Specifications for Highway Construction Manuals (2003, 2014) for driven pile foundations faces various limitations which result in designs of questionable reliability. These specifications are based on the Allowable Stress Design method (ASD), cover a wide range of uncertainties, do not take into account pile and soil types, and were developed for general use. To overcome these challenges it is deemed necessary to develop a new design and acceptance protocol for driven piles. This new protocol incorporates locally calibrated RLFD resistance factors for accounting for local design and construction experiences and practices, as well …

Reliability-Based Progressive Collapse And Redundancy Analysis Of Bridge Systems, Feng Miao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Highway bridges like most structural systems are usually designed on a member by member basis and little consideration is provided to the effect of a local failure on system safety. There are concerns that some systems optimized to meet code-specified member design criteria may not provide sufficient levels of structural redundancy to withstand a possible local failure. In fact, a local failure of one structural element may result in the failure of another element creating a chain reaction that might progress throughout the whole structure or a major portion of it leading to a catastrophic collapse. Several recent catastrophic structural …

Safety Effect Of Missouri's Strategic Highway Safety Plan: Missouri's Blueprint For Safer Roadways, Mojtaba A. Mohammadi, V. A. Samaranayake, Ghulam H. Bham

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

This study systematically evaluated the changes in motor vehicle crashes that occurred on the Missouri Interstate highway system following the implementation of the Missouri Strategic Highway Safety Plan (MSHSP) between 2004 and 2007. The MSHSP implemented crash injury reduction strategies in enforcement, education, engineering, and public policy. Empirical Bayesian methods were commonly used to evaluate the effects of any change in safety as a result of countermeasures. This paper presents a simple new approach to evaluating the effects of Missouri's safety plans on roadway crashes. For crash data associated with traffic and roadway characteristics, negative binomial regression models were developed …

Assessment Of Contributing Factors To The Reduction Of Diarrhea In Rural Communities Of Para, Brazil, Lee Voth-Gaeddert

Masters Theses

"In developing communities the occurrence of diarrhea has been reported at elevated levels as compared to those communities in more developed regions. Diarrheal diseases were linked to over one million deaths in 2012 throughout the world. While multiple pathways are present for the transmission of diarrheal diseases, water has been the focus for many aid organizations. Point-of-use (POU) water treatment methods are a common tool used by aid organizations in efforts to provide potable water. The CAWST biosand filter is a POU tool that has shown removal effectiveness of pathogenic microorganisms ranging from 90-99%. However, minimal literature was found that …

The Spatial Distribution Of Cancer Incidence In Fars Province: A Gis-Based Analysis Of Cancer Registry Data, Ali Goli, Mahbobeh Oroei, Mehdi Jalalpour, Hossein Faramarzi, Mehrdad Askarian

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Background: Cancer is a major health problem in the developing countries. Variations of its incidence rate among geographical areas are due to various contributing factors. This study was performed to assess the spatial patterns of cancer incidence in the Fars Province, based on cancer registry data and to determine geographical clusters.

Methods: In this cross sectional study, the new cases of cancer were recorded from 2001 to 2009. Crude incidence rate was estimated based on age groups and sex in the counties of the Fars Province. Age standardized incidence rates (ASR) per 100,000 was calculated in each year. …

Applications Of Bayesian Statistics In Fluvial Bed Load Transport, Mark L. Schmelter

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The science of fluvial sediment transport studies the processes involved in the movement of river sediments. It is commonly understood that when rivers flood they have a great capacity to move sand, gravel, and even larger cobbles and boulders. This process is not only limited to the big floods that usually attract so much attention, but also the more common river flows play a very important role in forming a river. As engineers and scientists, we like to be able to develop equations and relationships that describe some natural phenomenon—in this case, fluvial sediment transport. While we are able to …

Influenza Forecasting With Google Flu Trends, Andrea Freyer Dugas, Mehdi Jalalpour, Yulia Gel, Scott Levin, Fred Torcaso, Takeru Igusa, Richard E. Rothman

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Background: We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy.

Methods: Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004–2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures …

A Systematic Approach To Manage Missing Data In Pavement Management Systems, Mazin M. Al-Zou'bi

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Pavements are an important part of the highway transportation infrastructure, accounting for the largest share of the overall investment. A tremendous amount of time and money is spent each year on the construction of new pavements, as well as on the maintenance and rehabilitation of existing pavements.

Transportation agencies use pavement management systems (PMS) for their maintenance and rehabilitation planning, programming, and budgeting. PMS are used to make decisions regarding when maintenance and rehabilitation should be applied. The systems also select what type of treatment should be applied for each pavement section in the network with clear estimations of the …

Analysis Of Vehicle Interactions On Interstate Highways: Discrete Choice And Linear System Approaches, Alicia Romo

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The research in this dissertation developed statistical and linear system models to predict driving behavior according to driver attributes, vehicle characteristics, car-following dynamics and/or driving conditions. The scope of this research was limited to the interaction of two vehicles traveling in the same direction on interstate highways.

The statistical models proposed in this research investigated the contributions of the different vehicle types on the manner and likelihood of collision. Discrete choice models were used to estimate the probability of the types of collision (rear-end, angle and sideswipe) as functions of driver attributes, striking and struck vehicle types, pre-crash driving actions …

Investigation Of Trends And Predictive Effectiveness Of Crash Severity Models, James E. Mooradian

Master's Theses

This thesis describes analysis using ordinal logistic regression to uncover temporal patterns in the severity level (fatal, serious injury, minor injury, slight injury or no injury) for persons involved in highway crashes in Connecticut, focusing on the demographic split between senior travelers (65 years and over) and non-senior travelers. Existing state sources provide data describing the time and weather conditions for each crash and the vehicles and persons involved over the time period from 1995 to 2009 as well as the traffic volumes and the characteristics of the roads on which these crashes occurred. Findings indicate an overall increase in …

Estimation Of Performance Indices For The Planning Of Sustainable Transportation Systems, Pankaj Maheshwari, Alexander Paz, Pushkin Kachroo

Graduate Publications & Presentations

What is sustainable transportation system?

Fulfill the needs of current generations without compromising the ability of future generations

Utilize resources without compromising their health and productivity Leads to development that improves quality of life

Assimilate economic, ecological, social, and bio-physical components of resource ecosystems

Minimize the use of renewable and non-renewable resources, provide affordability and equity between generations

Water Quality Models For Stormwater Runoff In Two Lincoln, Nebraska Urban Watersheds, Jake Fisher

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Water quality monitoring was conducted in two urban watersheds (Colonial Hills and Taylor Park) located in southeast Lincoln, NE over a three year period spanning from October 2008 through September 2011. In-line probes continuously measured for turbidity, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, and water temperature while other water quality constituents were analyzed for discrete water samples collected using grab and automatic sampling techniques. The water quality data was used to calculate event mean concentrations (EMCs) for sixteen storm events sampled over the duration of the project period. Three types of stormwater quality multiple linear regression models were developed for the estimation of …

A Study On Facility Planning Using Discrete Event Simulation: Case Study Of A Grain Delivery Terminal, Sarah M. Asio

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The application of traditional approaches to the design of efficient facilities can be tedious and time consuming when uncertainty and a number of constraints exist. Queuing models and mathematical programming techniques are not able to capture the complex interaction between resources, the environment and space constraints for dynamic stochastic processes. In the following study discrete event simulation is applied to the facility planning process for a grain delivery terminal. The discrete event simulation approach has been applied to studies such as capacity planning and facility layout for a gasoline station and evaluating the resource requirements for a manufacturing facility. To …

Probabilistic Assessment Of Drought Characteristics Using A Hidden Markov Model, Ganeshchandra Mallya, Shivam Tripathi, Sergey Kirshner, Rao S. Govindaraju

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Droughts are evaluated using drought indices that measure the departure of meteorological and hydrological variables such as precipitation and stream flow from their long-term averages. While there are many drought indices proposed in the literature, most of them use pre-defined thresholds for identifying drought classes ignoring the inherent uncertainties in characterizing droughts. In this study, a hidden Markov model (HMM) [1] is developed for probabilistic classification of drought states. The HMM captures space and time dependence in the data. The proposed model is applied to assess drought characteristics in Indiana using monthly precipitation and stream flow data. The comparison of …

Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Policymakers traditionally focus on regulating operational energy use in buildings, ignoring other life cycle components such as embodied energy even though this may account for a significant portion of life cycle emissions. Data relating to embodied energy and emissions in buildings is limited. However, stochastic techniques can be used to estimate the distribution of such emissions from buildings. This helps policymakers identify which instruments are appropriate for achieving emissions reductions. A primary aim of this paper is to demonstrate this approach using a sample of apartment buildings in Ireland. A Monte-Carlo simulation suggests that the average probability distribution of embodied …

Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu

Articles

Although embodiedCO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions,embodiedCO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with …