Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Counting The Impossible: Sampling And Modeling To Achieve A Large State Homeless Count, Jennifer L. Priestley, Jane Massey

Faculty Articles

Objective: Using inferential statistics, we develop estimates of the homeless population of a geographically large and economically diverse state -- Georgia.

Methods: Multiple independent data sources (2000 U.S. Census, the 2006 Georgia County Guide, Georgia Chamber of Commerce) were used to develop Clusters of the 150 Georgia Counties. These clusters were used as "strata" to then execute traified sampling. Homeless counts were conducted within the sample counties, allowing for multiple regression models to be developed to generate predictions of homeless persons by county.

Results: In response to a mandate from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the State …

Quantitative Interpretation Of A Genetic Model Of Carcinogenesis Using Computer Simulations, Donghai Dai, Brandon Beck, Xiaofang Wang, Cory Howk, Yi Li

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

The genetic model of tumorigenesis by Vogelstein et al. (V theory) and the molecular definition of cancer hallmarks by Hanahan and Weinberg (W theory) represent two of the most comprehensive and systemic understandings of cancer. Here, we develop a mathematical model that quantitatively interprets these seminal cancer theories, starting from a set of equations describing the short life cycle of an individual cell in uterine epithelium during tissue regeneration. The process of malignant transformation of an individual cell is followed and the tissue (or tumor) is described as a composite of individual cells in order to quantitatively account for intra-tumor …

Maximal Sensitive Dependence And The Optimal Path To Epidemic Extinction, Eric Forgoston, Simone Bianco, Leah B. Shaw, Ira B. Schwartz

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that …

Projective-Planar Graphs With No K3,4-Minor, John Maharry, Dan Slilaty

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

An exact structure is described to classify the projective‐planar graphs that do not contain a K3, 4‐minor.

Bayesian Semiparametric Generalizations Of Linear Models Using Polya Trees, Angela Schoergendorfer

University of Kentucky Doctoral Dissertations

In a Bayesian framework, prior distributions on a space of nonparametric continuous distributions may be defined using Polya trees. This dissertation addresses statistical problems for which the Polya tree idea can be utilized to provide efficient and practical methodological solutions.

One problem considered is the estimation of risks, odds ratios, or other similar measures that are derived by specifying a threshold for an observed continuous variable. It has been previously shown that fitting a linear model to the continuous outcome under the assumption of a logistic error distribution leads to more efficient odds ratio estimates. We will show that deviations …

Epidemic Spread Of Influenza Viruses: The Impact Of Transient Populations On Disease Dynamics, Karen R. Ríos-Soto, Baojun Song, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The recent H1N1 ("swine u") pandemic and recent H5N1 ("avian u") outbreaks have brought increased attention to the study of the role of animal populations as reservoirs for pathogens that could invade human populations. It is believed that pigs acquired u strains from birds and humans, acting as a mixing vessel in generating new influenza viruses. Assessing the role of animal reservoirs, particularly reservoirs involving highly mobile populations (like migratory birds), on disease dispersal and persistence is of interests to a wide range of researchers including public health experts and evolutionary biologists. This paper studies the interactions between transient and …

The Doubly Inflated Poisson And Related Regression Models, Manasi Sheth-Chandra

Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations

Most real life count data consists of some values that are more frequent than allowed by the common parametric families of distributions. For data consisting of only excess zeros, in a seminal paper Lambert (1992) introduced Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model, which is a mixture model that accounts for the inflated zeros. In this thesis, two Doubly Inflated Poisson (DIP) probability models, DIP (p, λ) and DIP ( p1, p2, λ), are discussed for situations where there is another inflated value k > 0 besides the inflated zeros. The distributional properties such as identifiability, moments, and conditional probabilities …

Adjusted Empirical Likelihood Models With Estimating Equations For Accelerated Life Tests, Ni Wang, Jye-Chyi Lu, Di Chen, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This article proposes an adjusted empirical likelihood estimation (AMELE) method to model and analyze accelerated life testing data. This approach flexibly and rigorously incorporates distribution assumptions and regression structures by estimating equations within a semiparametric estimation framework. An efficient method is provided to compute the empirical likelihood estimates, and asymptotic properties are studied. Real-life examples and numerical studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methodology.

Multi-Cause Degradation Path Model: A Case Study On Rubidium Lamp Degradation, Sun Quan, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

At the core of satellite rubidium standard clocks is the rubidium lamp, which is a critical piece of equipment in a satellite navigation system. There are many challenges in understanding and improving the reliability of the rubidium lamp, including the extensive lifetime requirement and the dearth of samples available for destructive life tests. Experimenters rely on degradation experiments to assess the lifetime distribution of highly reliable products that seem unlikely to fail under the normal stress conditions, because degradation data can provide extra information about product reliability. Based on recent research on the rubidium lamp, this article presents a multi‐cause …

Adjusted Hazard Rate Estimator Based On A Known Censoring Probability, Ülkü Gürler, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In most reliability studies involving censoring, one assumes that censoring probabilities are unknown. We derive a nonparametric estimator for the survival function when information regarding censoring frequency is available. The estimator is constructed by adjusting the Nelson–Aalen estimator to incorporate censoring information. Our results indicate significant improvements can be achieved if available information regarding censoring is used. We compare this model to the Koziol–Green model, which is also based on a form of proportional hazards for the lifetime and censoring distributions. Two examples of survival data help to illustrate the differences in the estimation techniques.

Studies In Sampling Techniques And Time Series Analysis, Florentin Smarandache, Rajesh Singh

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This book has been designed for students and researchers who are working in the field of time series analysis and estimation in finite population. There are papers by Rajesh Singh, Florentin Smarandache, Shweta Maurya, Ashish K. Singh, Manoj Kr. Chaudhary, V. K. Singh, Mukesh Kumar and Sachin Malik. First chapter deals with the problem of time series analysis and the rest of four chapters deal with the problems of estimation in finite population. The book is divided in five chapters as follows: Chapter 1. Water pollution is a major global problem. In this chapter, time series analysis is carried out …

Uniform And Partially Uniform Redistribution Rules, Florentin Smarandache, Jean Dezert

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This short paper introduces two new fusion rules for combining quantitative basic belief assignments. These rules although very simple have not been proposed in literature so far and could serve as useful alternatives because of their low computation cost with respect to the recent advanced Proportional Conflict Redistribution rules developed in the DSmT framework.

Some Ratio Type Estimators Under Measurement Errors, Florentin Smarandache, Mukesh Kumar, Rajesh Singh, Ashish K. Singh

Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications

This article addresses the problem of estimating the population mean using auxiliary information in the presence of measurement errors.

Applying Localized Realized Volatility Modeling To Futures Indices, Luella Fu

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis extends the application of the localized realized volatility model created by Ying Chen, Wolfgang Karl Härdle, and Uta Pigorsch to other futures markets, particularly the CAC 40 and the NI 225. The research attempted to replicate results though ultimately, those results were invalidated by procedural difficulties.

Like Mother Like Child: An Investigation Of Mother Characteristics And Child Temperaments, Tempus Fugitt

Statistics

Much research has gone into what biological and social factors raise the risk of children developing cognitive, social, or behavioral problems. This project looks at what characteristics of the mother are significantly associated with different temperaments in the child which may predict problems developed in the child later in life. These characteristics include mother’s age, her education level, household income, parenting attitudes, involvement with the child, and drug and alcohol use. Data was used from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study conducted by the Office of Population Research at Princeton University. Cumulative logistic regression was used to analyze the …

Generalized Variances Ratio Test For Comparing K Covariance Matrices From Dependent Normal Populations, Marcelo Angelo Cirillo, Daniel Furtado Ferreira, Thelma Sáfadi, Eric Batista Ferreira

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

New tests based on the ratio of generalized variances are presented to compare covariance matrices from dependent normal populations. Monte Carlo simulation concluded that the tests considered controlled the Type I error, providing empirical probabilities that were consistent with the nominal level stipulated.

A Ga-Based Sales Forecasting Model Incorporating Promotion Factors, Li-Chih Wang, Chin-Lien Wang

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Because promotions are critical factors highly related to product sales of consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, predictors concerning sales forecast of CPG products must take promotions into consideration. Decomposition regression incorporating contextual factors offers a method for exploiting both reliability of statistical forecasting and flexibility of judgmental forecasting employing domain knowledge. However, it suffers from collinearity causing poor performance in variable identification and parameter estimation with traditional ordinary least square (OLS). Empirical research evidence shows that - in the case of collinearity - in variable identification, parameter estimation, and out of sample forecasting, genetic algorithms (GA) as an estimator outperform …

Estimating The Non-Existent Mean And Variance Of The F-Distribution By Simulation, Hamid Reza Kamali, Parisa Shahnazari-Shahrezaei

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

In theory, all moments of some probability distributions do not necessarily exist. In the other words, they may be infinite or undefined. One of these distributions is the F-distribution whose mean and variance have not been defined for the second degree of freedom less than 3 and 5, respectively. In some cases, a large statistical population having an F-distribution may exist and the aim is to obtain its mean and variance which are an estimation of the non-existent mean and variance of F-distribution. This article considers a large sample F-distribution to estimate its non-existent mean and variance using Simul8 simulation …

Ridge Regression Based On Some Robust Estimators, Hatice Samkar, Ozlem Alpu

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Robust ridge methods based on M, S, MM and GM estimators are examined in the presence of multicollinearity and outliers. GMWalker, using the LS estimator as the initial estimator is used. S and MM estimators are also used as initial estimators with the aim of evaluating the two alternatives as biased robust methods.

A Flexible Method For Testing Independence In Two-Way Contingency Tables, Peyman Jafari, Noori Akhtar-Danesh, Zahra Bagheri

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A flexible approach for testing association in two-way contingency tables is presented. It is simple, does not assume a specific form for the association and is applicable to tables with nominal-by-nominal, nominal-by-ordinal, and ordinal-by-ordinal classifications.

Statistical And Mathematical Modeling Versus Nhst? There’S No Competition!, Joseph Lee Rodgers

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Some of Robinson & Levin’s critique of Rodgers (2010) is cogent, helpful, and insightful – although limiting. Recent methodology has advanced through the development of structural equation modeling, multi-level modeling, missing data methods, hierarchical linear modeling, categorical data analysis, as well as the development of many dedicated and specific behavioral models. These methodological approaches are based on a revised epistemological system, and have emerged naturally, without the need for task forces, or even much self-conscious discussion. The original goal was neither to develop nor promote a modeling revolution. That has occurred; I documented its development and its status. Two organizing …

Effect Of Measurement Errors On The Separate And Combined Ratio And Product Estimators In Stratified Random Sampling, Housila P. Singh, Namrata Karpe

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Separate and combined ratio, product and difference estimators are introduced for population mean μ_Y of a study variable Y using auxiliary variable X in stratified sampling when the observations are contaminated with measurement errors. The bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimators have been derived under large sample approximation and their properties are analyzed. Generalized versions of these estimators are given along with their properties.

Recommended Sample Size For Conducting Exploratory Factor Analysis On Dichotomous Data, Robert H. Pearson, Daniel J. Mundform

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Minimum sample sizes are recommended for conducting exploratory factor analysis on dichotomous data. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted, varying the level of communalities, number of factors, variable-to-factor ratio and dichotomization threshold. Sample sizes were identified based on congruence between rotated population and sample factor loadings.

Incidence And Prevalence For A Triply Censored Data, Hilmi F. Kittani

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The model introduced for the natural history of a progressive disease has four disease states which are expressed as a joint distribution of three survival random variables. Covariates are included in the model using Cox’s proportional hazards model with necessary assumptions needed. Effects of the covariates are estimated and tested. Formulas for incidence in the preclinical, clinical and death states are obtained, and prevalence formulas are obtained for the preclinical and clinical states. Estimates of the sojourn times in the preclinical and clinical states are obtained.

Robust Estimators In Logistic Regression: A Comparative Simulation Study, Sanizah Ahmad, Norazan Mohamed Ramli, Habshah Midi

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is commonly used to estimate the parameters of logistic regression models due to its efficiency under a parametric model. However, evidence has shown the MLE has an unduly effect on the parameter estimates in the presence of outliers. Robust methods are put forward to rectify this problem. This article examines the performance of the MLE and four existing robust estimators under different outlier patterns, which are investigated by real data sets and Monte Carlo simulation.

Use Of Two Variables Having Common Mean To Improve The Bar-Lev, Bobovitch And Boukai Randomized Response Model, Oluseun Odumade, Sarjinder Singh

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A new method to improve the randomized response model due to Bar-Lev, Bobovitch and Boukai (2004) is suggested. It has been observed that if two sensitive (or non sensitive) variables exist that are related to the main study sensitive variable, then those variables could be used to construct ratio type adjustments to the usual estimator of the population mean of a sensitive variable due to Bar-Lev, Bobovitch and Boukai (2004).The relative efficiency of the proposed estimators is studied with respect to the Bar-Lev, Bobovitch and Boukai (2004) models under different situations.

Maximum Downside Semi Deviation Stochastic Programming For Portfolio Optimization Problem, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Khlipah Ibrahim

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Portfolio optimization is an important research field in financial decision making. The chief character within optimization problems is the uncertainty of future returns. Probabilistic methods are used alongside optimization techniques. Markowitz (1952, 1959) introduced the concept of risk into the problem and used a mean-variance model to identify risk with the volatility (variance) of the random objective. The mean-risk optimization paradigm has since been expanded extensively both theoretically and computationally. A single stage and two stage stochastic programming model with recourse are presented for risk averse investors with the objective of minimizing the maximum downside semideviation. The models employ the …

On Bayesian Shrinkage Setup For Item Failure Data Under A Family Of Life Testing Distribution, Gyan Prakash

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

Properties of the Bayes shrinkage estimator for the parameter are studied of a family of probability density function when item failure data are available. The symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are considered for two different prior distributions. In addition, the Bayes estimates of reliability function and hazard rate are obtained and their properties are studied.

Bayesian Analysis Of Location-Scale Family Of Distributions Using S-Plus And R Software, Sheikh Parvaiz Ahmad, Aquil Ahmed, Athar Ali Khan

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The Normal and Laplace’s methods of approximation for posterior density based on the location-scale family of distributions in terms of the numerical and graphical simulation are examined using S-PLUS and R Software.

Empirical Characteristic Function Approach To Goodness Of Fit Tests For The Logistic Distribution Under Srs And Rss, M. T. Alodat, S. A. Al-Subh, Kamaruzaman Ibrahim, Abdul Aziz Jemain

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

The integral of the squares modulus of the difference between the empirical characteristic function and the characteristic function of the hypothesized distribution is used by Wong and Sim (2000) to test for goodness of fit. A weighted version of Wong and Sim (2000) under ranked set sampling, a sampling technique introduced by McIntyre (1952), is examined. Simulations that show the ranked set sampling counterpart of Wong and Sim (2000) is more powerful.