Other Physics Commons^™

Proof Of Principle For A Self-Governing Prediction And Forecasting Reward Algorithm, Jose Osvaldo Gonzalez-Hernandez, Jonathan Marino, Ted Rogers, Brandon Velasco

Physics Faculty Publications

We use Monte Carlo techniques to simulate an organized prediction competition between a group of scientific experts acting under the influence of a "self-governing" prediction reward algorithm. Our aim is to illustrate the advantages of a specific type of reward distribution rule that is designed to address some of the limitations of traditional forecast scoring rules. The primary extension of this algorithm as compared with standard forecast scoring is that it incorporates measures of both group consensus and question relevance directly into the reward distribution algorithm. Our model of the prediction competition includes parameters that control both the level of …

Question 1: Snow Volume; Question 2: Longbow Arrow Velocity, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Solutions For Fermi Questions, January 2022: Question 1: Snow Volume; Question 2: Longbow Arrow Velocity, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Question 1: Ketchup Packets; Question 2: Dog Hair, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

Question 2: Dog hair How much dog hair is shed (and subsequently vacuumed) in the U.S. each year? How many ketchup packets are used in America every year?.

Question 1: Dinosaur Killer Crater; Question 2: Graduation Speeches, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

The Fermi Questions: In 2003, the "Dinosaur Killer" asteroid crater was imaged for the first time (see National Geographic News, March 7, 2003). The crater is believed to be 100 km in radius and 1 km deep. What was the kinetic energy of the asteroid that made the crater? Express your answer in joules and in megatons (1 MT = 4 ·10 J).

Solutions For Fermi Questions, April 2022, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

[Introduction] Answer: When an asteroid hits the Earth, it transfers thermal and kinetic energy to the ground. The kinetic energy moves rock and makes a crater. We'll start by estimating the kinetic energy needed to make a crater.

Question 1: Space Telescope; Question 2: Jwst2, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

[Introduction] Space telescope

Question 1: If the James Webb Space Telescope could be turned to face Earth, how small an object could it resolve? How does that compare to the Hubble Space Telescope? ...

Question 2: How much heat from Earth is blocked by the Sun and Earth shade of the James Webb Space Telescope? ...

Question: While I was at a Norfolk Tides baseball game, a foul ball landed in the section above me and showered some of my friends with beer. What is the probability of a foul ball landing directly in a cup of beer during one …

Solutions For Fermi Questions, March 2022, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

Answers the questions:

Question 1: Ketchup packets

How many ketchup packets are used in America every year?

Question 2: Dog hair

How much dog hair is shed (and subsequently vacuumed) in the U.S. each year?

Solutions For Fermi Questions, May 2022, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

[Introduction] Question: If the James Webb Space Telescope could be turned to face the Earth, how small an object could it resolve? How does that compare to the Hubble Space Telescope?.

To answer this, we need to know the location of the JWST, its size, and the wavelengths it can image. (This is one of those Fermi questions where we're not really estimating, but we are calculating unusual order-of-magnitude answers.) The JWST is orbiting the Earth and Sun at the second Lagrange point, L2, which is located 1.5 × 10⁶ km beyond the Earth (so that the Sun, Earth and …

Fermi Questions, Question 1: Light Bulb Photons; Question 2: Light Bulbs, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Solutions For Fermi Questions, March 2021, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Question 1: Falling On A Bmw; Question 2: Recycling Contact Lenses, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Solutions For Fermi Questions, January 2022: Question 1: Snow Volume; Question 2: Longbow Arrow Velocity, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Solutions For Fermi Questions, September 2021: Question 1: Cell Phone Gold, Question 2: Food For Thought, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

Answers to the questions: "How much gold is in a cell phone? Is it worth mining cell phones for gold?"

Solutions For Femi Questions, October 2021: Rising Water Level: Popping Many Pimples, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

[Introduction] How much would sea levels rise if everyone jumped in the ocean? (Thanks to Bob Friedhoffer for suggesting the problem.)

To estimate this, we need to know the number of people, the average volume of a person, and the area of the oceans. This is the kind of estimation problem where the inputs are relatively well known, and we are calculating the answer to see its order of magnitude.

There are about 7 X 10⁹ people in the world. If each person has a mass of 100 kg (in round numbers), then they each have a volume …

Question 1: Chess Moves; Question 2: Cat Litter, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

How many chess moves are made by Americans each year?

How much cat litter did Americans scoop last year?

Question 1: Coffee Consumption; Question 2: Active Volcanoes, Lawrence Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

This article presents questions related to Fermi which include how much coffee U.S. scientists consume daily, and how many active volcanoes there are in the world.

Luminosity-Luminosity Correlations In Flux-Limited Multiwavelength Data, J. Singal, V. Petrosian, J. Haider, S. Malik

Physics Faculty Publications

We explore the general question of correlations among different waveband luminosities in a flux-limited multiband observational data set. Such correlations, often observed for astronomical sources, may be either intrinsic or induced by the redshift evolution of the luminosities and the data truncation due to the flux limits. We first address this question analytically. We then use simulated flux-limited data with three different known intrinsic luminosity correlations and prescribed luminosity functions and evolution similar to the ones expected for quasars. We explore how the intrinsic nature of luminosity correlations can be deduced, including exploring the efficacy of partial correlation analysis with …

Announcement: In Memory Of Yong Ho Chin, Michael Thoennessen, Debbie Brodbar, Brant Johnson, Jean Delayen, Dan Kulp, Frank Zimmermann, Maria Poko

Physics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Solutions For Fermi Questions, May 2019: Question 1: Graduation Speeches; Question 2: Fan Propulsion, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

[Introduction] How many person-hoursare spent listening to graduation speeches each year? How long is this in lifetimes?

Answer: Just about everyone graduates high school and goes to their graduation, usually with guests. Only about 30% of Americans (more than 10% and less than 100% graduate college, so we will ignore those graduates. Therefore we need to estimate the number of graduating high school seniors, the number of guests per senior, and the length of the graduation speeches.

Question 1: Iceberg To Los Angeles, Question 2: Lost Luggage, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

How much fuel would it take to tow a large enough iceberg to Los Angeles to provide fresh water for the city for an entire year? (Thanks to John Adam of Old Dominion University and co-author of Guesstimation for suggesting the question.)

U.S.-based airlines lost 1.7 million pieces of luggage in 2016. How tall a mountain will this make? What is the probability an airline will lose our luggage on our next flight? (Thanks to John Adam of Old Dominion University and co-author of Guesstimation for suggesting the question.)

Review Of Optical Detection Of Single Molecules Beyond The Diffraction And Diffusion Limit Using Plasmonic Nanostructures, Farzia Karim, Todd B. Smith, Chenglong Zhao

Physics Faculty Publications

Single-molecule detection has become a unique and indispensable tool for the study of molecular motions and interactions at the single-molecule level. Unlike ensemble measurement where the information is averaged, single-molecule analysis yields invaluable information on both the individual molecular properties and their microenvironment. Among the various technologies for the detection of single molecules, the detection with optical methods has many advantages in terms of its high sensitivity, electrical passiveness, and robustness. The recent advances in the engineering of either the excitation light or the solution of the molecules have paved the way for enhanced single-molecule detection. We present recent developments …

Question 1: Time Texting; Question 2: Opening Doors, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

[Introduction] How much total time do Americans spend texting every year?

Can a typical human open a 20-ton door (swinging on hinges around a vertical axis like a normal room door) with no mechanical assistance?

Satellite-Beacon Ionospheric-Scintillation Global Model Of The Upper Atmosphere (Sigma) Ii: Inverse Modeling With High Latitude Observations To Deduce Irregularity Physics, K. B. Deshpande, G. S. Bust, C. R. Clauer, W. A. Scales, N. A. Frissell, J. M. Ruohoniemi, L. Spogli, C. Mitchell, Allan T. Weatherwax

Physics Faculty Publications

Ionospheric scintillation is caused by irregularities in the ionospheric electron density. The characterization of ionospheric irregularities is important to further our understanding of the underlying physics. Our goal is to characterize the intermediate (0.1–10 km) to medium (10–100 km) scale high-latitude irregularities which are likely to produce these scintillations. In this paper, we characterize irregularities observed by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) during a geomagnetically active period on 9 March 2012. For this purpose, along with the measurements, we are using the recently developed model: “Satellite-beacon Ionospheric-scintillation Global Model of the upper Atmosphere” (SIGMA). The model is particularly applicable at …

A Clean Energy Utility For Multifamily Housing In A Deregulated Energy Market, Ata Raziei, Kevin P. Hallinan, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Energy efficiency and renewable energy (EERE) investment in multifamily residences in the United States has not kept pace with investment in resident-owned facilities. Split incentives, where owners cannot benefit economically from energy cost savings for residences and resident investment in EERE is not feasible, have posed a significant barrier. A clean energy utility is posited to circumvent this barrier. This utility would be responsible for power purchase from the grid, ideally as a real-time purchase agent from the grid manager; investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy; and demand management through control of water heating, as well as supply-side management …

Analysis Of Solar Photovoltaic And Wind Power Potential In Afghanistan, Ahmad Murtaza Ershad, Robert J. Brecha, Kevin P. Hallinan

Physics Faculty Publications

Afghanistan has a need for increased access to energy to enable development. In this paper we analyze the potential for large-scale grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power plants in two of Afghanistan's most populous provinces (Balkh and Herat) to meet a large fraction of growing electricity demand. The results presented here represent the first quantitative analysis of potential capacity factors and energy yields of power plants in the country using measured wind speed and typical solar radiation data. Variability of resources is also investigated by comparing temporal profiles with those of electricity demand, using residual load duration curves to …

Analyzing Major Challenges Of Wind And Solar Variability In Power Systems, Falko Ueckerdt, Robert Brecha, Gunnar Luderer

Physics Faculty Publications

Ambitious policy targets together with current and projected high growth rates indicate that future power systems will likely show substantially increased generation from renewable energy sources. A large share will come from the variable renewable energy (VRE) sources wind and solar photovoltaics (PV); however, integrating wind and solar causes challenges for existing power systems. In this paper we analyze three major integration challenges related to the structural matching of demand with the supply of wind and solar power: low capacity credit, reduced utilization of dispatchable plants, and over-produced generation. Based on residual load duration curves we define corresponding challenge variables …

Infographics And Mathematics: A Mechanism For Effective Learning In The Classroom, Ivan Sudakov, Thomas Bellsky, Svetlana Usenyuk, Victoria V. Polyakova

Physics Faculty Publications

This work discusses the creation and use of infographies in an undergraduate mathematics course. Infographies are a visualization of information combining data, formulas, and images. This article discusses how to form an infographic and uses infographics on topics within mathematics and climate as examples. It concludes with survey data from undergraduate students on both the general use of infographics and on the specific infographics designed by the authors.

Cost-Availability Curves For Hierarchical Implementation Of Residential Energy-Efficiency Measures, Roman Villoria-Siegert, Philip Brodrick, Kevin P. Hallinan, Robert J. Brecha

Physics Faculty Publications

Historical residential electricity data and natural gas consumption data were collected for, respectively, 1,200 and 178 residences in a small town in the USA. These data were merged with local building and weather databases, and energy consumption models were developed for each residence, revealing substantial variation in heating and cooling intensity. After estimating approximate physical building characteristics, energy profiles for each residence were calculated, and savings from adoption of the most cost-effective energy-efficiency measures for each residence were estimated. Effectively, we wish to leverage commonly available data sets to infer characteristics of building envelopes and equipment, without the need for …

Question 1: Star Speeds; Question 2: Slurping Gasoline, Larry Weinstein

Physics Faculty Publications

One piece of evidence that the center of our galaxy contains a super-massive black hole came from measuring the speed of a star orbiting that black hole. What is the maximum speed of that star?

If instead of carrying their gas in fuel tanks, cars “slurped up” a stream of gas as they drove, how thick a stream of gas would each car need?