Meteorology Commons^™

Modification Of Precipitation By Coastal Orography In Storms Crossing Northern California, Curtis N. James, Robert A. Houze Jr.

Applied Aviation Sciences - Prescott

This study compiles and interprets three-dimensional Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data during a 2.5-yr period and examines the typical orographic effects on precipitation mainly associated with winter storms passing over coastal northern California.The three-dimensional mean reflectivity patterns show echo structure that was generally stratiform from over the ocean to inland over the mountains. The flow above the 1-km level was strong enough to be unblocked by the terrain, and the mean echo pattern over land had certain characteristics normally associated with an unblocked cross-barrier flow, both on the broad scale of the windward slopes of the coastal mountains and …

Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel

Theses and Dissertations

Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) based on the medium range forecast (MRF) ensemble are currently in operational use below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy and reliability). This unfulfilled potential is due to the MRF ensemble being adversely affected by systematic errors which arise from an imperfect model and less than ideal ensemble initial perturbations. This thesis sought to construct a calibration to account for these systematic errors and thus produce higher quality PQPF. Systematic errors were explored with the use of the verification rank histogram, which tracks the performance of the ensemble. The information in these histograms was then …

A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall

Theses and Dissertations

Total fractional cloudiness (FC) forecasts from the advect cloud (ADVCLD) model and total FC forecasts diagnosed from the relative humidity and total cloud condensate (snow, ice, rain water, and cloud water) fields from the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) were statistically and subjectively compared to determine which model produced the better total FC forecasts from August through November 1997 for a forecast window centered on Bosnia. The real time nephanalysis (RTNFPH) model was used to represent the true state of the atmosphere. ADVCLD and MM5 forecasts were also compared against a persistence forecast to provide a minimal skill baseline. The …

Precipitation Gauge Testing On The Wasatch Plateau, Utah, During Early 1993, United States Department Of The Interior, Bureau Of Reclamation

Meterology

The Bureau of Reclamation performed an independent evaluation of an ETI (Electronic Techniques, Inc.) precipitation gauge at the High Altitude Site on the western slope of the Wasatch Plateau in central Utah. The ETI gauge could provide a desirable alternative to conventional recording gauges in several applications, including evaluation of cloud seeding projects, if it performs as advertised. The testing program was intended to determine its performance in a winter mountain environment. The ETI precipitation gauge proved to be reliable from time of installation in late November 1992 until removal in late March 1993. The only problem found was an …

Stochastic Models For Precipitation, Peter Purdue, Z. Govindarajulu

KWRRI Research Reports

In this project a stochastic model, using Semi-Markov Processes, was developed to simulate daily rainfall patterns in Kentucky. This model contains many of the currently used models as special cases and is applicable at any station in Kentucky as well as elsewhere.

For use in Kentucky an 8 state Semi-Markov Process is developed and the parameters of the model are determined from historical rainfall data. The model is tested at 4 different stations in Kentucky and the simulated and actual rainfall processes are found to be in good agreement. Finally some long run probabilities are calculated as well as mean …