Meteorology Commons^™

2026 January - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

The main weather and climate story of January 2026 was the major winter storm that impacted the state from Saturday, January 24 through Monday, January 26 with rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow, followed by extremely cold conditions. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were in place across the state on Friday, January 23, as snow and sleet spread into Tennessee from the west in the overnight hours of Friday into Saturday. Most areas of the state saw an initial round of snow and sleet, before a layer of warm air aloft caused most locations to see …

Liutex - A Fluid Vortex, Oscar Alvarez

Mathematics Dissertations

Fluid vortices are found everywhere in our universe. A vortex can take the form of almost anything - from the classical spiral vortex to chaotic plumes. Defining a vortex physically and mathematically is absolutely necessary if we desire to study vortices and their interactions with each other as well as our physical world. Fluid vortices are incredibly important in the study of turbulent flows. From determining wear, optimizing design for better flow, efficiency, etc., to even predicting the weather on Earth or other planets, having the ability to measure vortices in fluid flow is invaluable. In this study, I investigate …

Forecasting Precipitation In Cuba Using Graph Based Deep Learning, Taufiqul Islam

Earth & Environmental Sciences Theses

Daily precipitation forecasting remained a challenging problem in regions characterized by strong spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear atmospheric dynamics, and intermittent rainfall behavior. Cuba represented a particularly complex case due to the combined influence of tropical cyclones, easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems, and orographic effects, which produced highly variable rainfall patterns in both space and time. Conventional statistical and machine-learning models typically treated stations independently and therefore overlooked spatial dependencies that strongly influenced rainfall variability across the island.

This study developed a spatiotemporal deep-learning framework for daily precipitation forecasting across 40 spatial nodes in Cuba using data from 1979 to 2023. The …

Identification And Characterization Of Tornado Seismic Signals In The Central U.S., Seth Thompson

Theses and Dissertations--Earth and Environmental Sciences

Tornadoes cause extensive property damage and endanger lives. While Doppler radar can indicate the potential for tornado development, it cannot confirm that a tornado is in contact with the ground unless a debris signature is present. While on the ground, a significant amount of a tornado’s energy may be transferred into the earth as seismic vibrations. Thus, seismometers have the potential to detect on-the-ground tornadoes. Since 1960, only five papers have published seismic recordings from tornadoes. These studies have mostly reported on seismic waves generated by tornadoes at a relatively large range, from 0.01-2.5 Hz, representing uncertainty in the dominant …

Key Processes Involved In The Vortex Alignment Of Sheared Tropical Cyclones, Luis O. Hernandez

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are challenging to forecast when under vertical wind shear (VWS). VWS tilts a TC’s vortex, creating asymmetries in its structure that impedes intensification. Although work has been done to conceptualize and understand how TCs evolve under shear and how they axisymmetrize and intensify, vortex alignment remains a complex and unresolved topic. The goal of this study is to assess what physical processes are important to tilt reduction and how these processes evolve in weak TCs. Using the Hurricane Analysis Forecast System Model-B (HAFS-B) 2.1, a case study on two storms, Hurricane Earl (2022) and Hurricane Lee (2023) …

Drivers Of Extreme Streamflow During A Snowmelt-Enhanced Heavy Rainfall And Atmospheric River Event In The Catskill Mountains Of New York, Christopher A. Gilberti

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

This study uses atmospheric reanalysis, precipitation and snow water equivalent (SWE) analyses, mesonet observations, and streamflow records to examine the impact of an atmospheric river storm that produced heavy rainfall and snowpack ablation across the Catskill Mountains of New York on 24–25 December 2020. Earlier in December, an antecedent storm produced SWE values in the Catskills above the 90^th percentile for that point in the season. The atmospheric river event followed with strong southerly warm-air advection ahead of an anomalously deep trough, temperatures and dewpoints that exceeded 10°C, and heavy orographically enhanced rainfall and rapid snowmelt. Sensible heat fluxes …

The Impact Of Downdraft Ventilation On Tropical Cyclone Intensity And Structure Using Aerial Reconnaissance Observations, Nicholas E. Johnson

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity can be challenging to predict since it is modulated by many physical processes. One of these processes is ventilation: the injection of relatively cool, dry environmental air into the warm core of a TC that acts as “anti-fuel”, inhibiting intensification and increasing uncertainty with intensity forecasts. While ventilation has been examined in numerical modeling studies, there have been a limited number of observational studies investigating ventilation. The two primary objectives of this dissertation are to develop methods for measuring downdraft ventilation from aerial reconnaissance observations and to use those observations to better understand how ventilation affects …

A Composite Narxnn Approach To Photovoltaic Power Forecasting With Integrated Weather Inputs And Uncertainty Quantification, Denisse Urenda Castañeda, Sharmin Abdullah, Jackson Morgan, Honglun Xu, Michael Pokojovy, Tzu-Liang Tseng

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a major source of sustainable energy. Yet, their power output is highly sensitive to environmental variability, particularly solar irradiance, cloud cover, wind, and temperature. Accurate forecasting of PV power is essential for efficient grid integration and energy planning, especially in applications requiring reliable longer-term forecasting rather than one-step-ahead predictions. This study presents a PV power forecasting approach using Nonlinear Autoregressive models with Exogenous Inputs (NARX), integrating large-scale numerical weather historical data as exogenous variables. Although NARX models effectively capture temporal dependencies, they can become overly dependent on historical power values, reducing responsiveness to real-time weather changes. …

Linking Boundary Type, Storm Mode, And Tornado Intensity In Illinois, Jakob Barton

A with Honors Projects

A large dataset of tornadoes across Illinois from 2007-2024 were analyzed for different characteristics of thunderstorms and tornadoes, these characteristics were then compared with each other to find correlation and trends.

Applications Of Machine Learning For Evaluating Downward-Coupled Stratosphere-Troposphere Interactions And Subseasonal Forecasts Of Opportunity, Elena M. Fernandez

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Wintertime stratospheric dynamics provide key information for understanding atmospheric teleconnections and improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions on timescales of two weeks to two months. Periods of enhanced predictability, often referred to as forecasts of opportunity, arise from large-scale teleconnected variability, within which the stratosphere serves as an important precursor for tropospheric states, such as near-surface temperatures. While traditional diagnostics of downward coupled stratosphere-troposphere interactions typically rely on zonal-mean representations of wind and geopotential height, this dissertation presents an alternative vortex-centric framework through metrics that capture the daily geometric and dynamical evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex. The proposed stratospheric …

The Effects Of Downdraft And Radial Ventilation In Hurricanes Earl (2010) And Edouard (2014), Jacob Vile

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change in moderate vertical wind shear (VWS) is difficult to predict. Specifically, ventilation, the intrusion of dry and/or cool (i.e., low equivalent potential temperature (theta-e) air inside the TC, can have differing effects on TCs. Downdraft ventilation is the downward transport of below-mean  theta-e air by downdrafts, and radial ventilation is the inward transport of below-mean theta-e air by storm-relative radial winds. If this low theta-e air is able to get ingested by updrafts, it can result in a reduction of convection in the TC, thereby reducing intensity. Although most studies of ventilation have been conducted …