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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Estimating Global Mean Sea-Level Rise And Its Uncertainties By 2100 And 2300 From An Expert Survey, Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S.H. Lee, Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart, Stefan Rahmstorf
Estimating Global Mean Sea-Level Rise And Its Uncertainties By 2100 And 2300 From An Expert Survey, Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S.H. Lee, Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart, Stefan Rahmstorf
School of Earth & Environment Faculty Scholarship
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those …