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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Estimating Global Mean Sea-Level Rise And Its Uncertainties By 2100 And 2300 From An Expert Survey, Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S.H. Lee, Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart, Stefan Rahmstorf
Estimating Global Mean Sea-Level Rise And Its Uncertainties By 2100 And 2300 From An Expert Survey, Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S.H. Lee, Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart, Stefan Rahmstorf
School of Earth & Environment Faculty Scholarship
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those …
Evolution Of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections, Andra J. Garner, Jeremy L. Weiss, Adam Parris, Robert E. Kopp, Radley M. Horton, Jonathan T, Overpeck, Benjamin P. Horton
Evolution Of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections, Andra J. Garner, Jeremy L. Weiss, Adam Parris, Robert E. Kopp, Radley M. Horton, Jonathan T, Overpeck, Benjamin P. Horton
School of Earth & Environment Faculty Scholarship
The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global‐mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections …
Impact Of Climate Change On New York City’S Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights From The Preindustrial To 2300 Ce, Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Lin, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. Deconto, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, David Pollard
Impact Of Climate Change On New York City’S Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights From The Preindustrial To 2300 Ce, Andra J. Garner, Michael E. Mann, Kerry A. Emanuel, Robert E. Kopp, Ning Lin, Richard B. Alley, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert M. Deconto, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, David Pollard
School of Earth & Environment Faculty Scholarship
We combine downscaled tropical cyclones, storm-surge models, and probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess flood hazard associated with changing storm characteristics and sea-level rise in New York City from the preindustrial era to 2300. Compensation between increased storm intensity and offshore shifts in storm tracks causes minimal change in modeled storm-surge heights through 2300. However, projected sea-level rise leads to large increases in future overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City. Consequently, flood height return periods that were ∼500 y during the preindustrial era have fallen to ∼25 y at present and are projected to fall …