Meteorology Commons^™

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Sensitivity Of Conus Summer Rainfall To The Selection Of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes In Nu-Wrf Seasonal Simulations, Takamichi Iguchi, Wei-Kuo Tao, Di Wu, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Joseph A. Santanello, Eric Kemp, Yudong Tian, Jonathan Case, Weile Wang, Robert Ferraro, Duane E. Waliser, Jinwon Kim, Huikyo Lee, Bin Guan, Baijun Tian, Paul C. Loikith

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study investigates the sensitivity of daily rainfall rates in regional seasonal simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to different cumulus parameterization schemes. Daily rainfall fields were simulated at 24-km resolution using the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model for June–August 2000. Four cumulus parameterization schemes and two options for shallow cumulus components in a specific scheme were tested. The spread in the domain-mean rainfall rates across the parameterization schemes was generally consistent between the entire CONUS and most subregions. The selection of the shallow cumulus component in a specific scheme had more impact than that of the …

Investigation Of The 2013 Alberta Flood From Weather And Climate Perspectives, Bernardo Teufel, G. T. Diro, K. Whan, S. M. Milrad, Et Al.

Publications

During 19–21 June 2013 a heavy precipitation event affected southern Alberta and adjoining regions, leading to severe flood damage in numerous communities and resulting in the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This flood was caused by a combination of meteorological and hydrological factors, which are investigated from weather and climate perspectives with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model. Results show that the contribution of orographic ascent to precipitation was important, exceeding 30% over the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Another contributing factor was evapotranspiration from the land surface, which is found to have acted as an important moisture …

Spatial Thinking And Cognitive Processing In Meteorology, Peggy Mcneal

Research and Creative Activities Poster Day

Evidence suggests that spatial skills are highly malleable and that training in spatial thinking is effective, durable, and transferrable1. Understanding how meteorologists employ spatial skills in the forecasting process has implications for operational weather forecasting and meteorology education. This study began with exploratory research that identified mental animation and disembedding as key spatial skills used in weather forecasting. A follow-on pilot study tested the instruments, collected think-aloud data and found a correlation between spatial skills and forecasting. The complete study, in progress, is investigating the effect of spatial thinking, working memory and expertise on forecast task performance.

Grand Challenges In Understanding The Interplay Of Climate And Land Changes, Shuguang Liu, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Lena R. Boysen, James D. Ford, Andrew Fox, Kevin Gallo, Jerry Hatfield, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Thomas G. Huntington, Zhihua Liu, Thomas R. Loveland, Richard J. Norby, Terry Sohl, Allison L. Steiner, Wenping Yuan, Zhao Zhang, Shuqing Zhao

GSCE Faculty Publications

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, …

Weather Variability And The Tourism Industry: A Panel Data Analysis, Carmela Coppola

Honors Projects in Economics

Increasing weather variability around the world has led to many researchers examining the impacts of weather variability on vulnerable industries. For example, the tourism industry can make up a large portion of an economy’s growth, with some of the most dependent countries relying on tourism for over 40% of GDP (World Travel & Tourism Council 2014). In an attempt to better understand the relationship between weather variability and the tourism industry at the country level, this study employs a series of fixed effects panel regression models to analyze the impact of rainfall and temperature on tourism levels and growth rates …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

Effects Of Graphical Weather Information Versus Textual Weather Information On Situation Awareness In Meteorology, Stefan Melendez

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

Prior to a flight, pilots gather meteorological information to assess the weather conditions pertaining to their flight and to make decisions based on it. This information can come in various formats, such as text and graphical weather information. Research has shown that people have varying learning preferences and that most people prefer visual learning to verbal learning (i.e., graphical over text). It is hypothesized that this difference in learning preference can affect the way pilots interpret and apply the information they obtain prior to their flight. The researcher hypothesizes that graphical weather information has a greater, more positive impact on …

Cirrus Cloud Microphysics Over Darwin, Australia, Dorothea Ivanova, Matthew Johnson

Publications

Ice clouds, crucial to the understanding of both short - and long - term climate trends, are poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). Cirrus clouds, one of the largest uncertainties in the global radiation budget, have been inadequately studied at low latitudes. Parameterizations exist for mid - latitude and tropical cirrus ( Ivanova et al. 2001; McFarquhar et al. 1997). Due to climate sensitivity in the GCM with respect to cloud input, without robust parameterizations of cirrus clouds, the GCM is inaccurate over most output fields, including radiative forcing, temperature, albedo, and heat flux (Yao and Del Genio 1999). …

Latitudinal Position And Trends Of The Intertropical Convergence Zone (Itcz) And Its Relationship With Upwelling In The Southern Caribbean Sea And Global Climate Indices, Kaitlyn E. Colna

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a feature that results from the ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropics around the world. The ITCZ is characterized by surface wind convergence, tall storm clouds, and it forms a belt of high time-averaged precipitation around the globe. The ITCZ undergoes seasonal migrations between 5°S and 15°N roughly following the subsolar point on Earth with the seasons, with a mean annual position located slightly above the Equator, between 2° and 5°N.

This study tested the hypothesis that there was a northward shift in the median position of the ITCZ in the first decade of the …

P16. Ralmo Rotational Raman Temperature Retrieval: First Steps Towards The Application Of Optimal Estimation Method (Oem), Shayamila N. Mahagammulla Gamage, Robert Sica, Alexander Haefele

Western Research Forum

Background:

Temperature is an important atmospheric parameter that plays an extensive role in the fields of atmospheric dynamics, climatology, meteorology, and chemistry. Light detection and ranging (lidar), is a remote sensing technology that can be used for atmospheric temperature profiling. A lidar transmits short laser pulses into the atmosphere and the light scattered by the particles in the atmosphere is collected and measured using a telescope. The atmospheric temperatures can be retrieved by analysing the Pure Rotational Raman (PRR) scatter measurements from the nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the atmosphere.

Methods:

In this study use the Optimal Estimation Method (OEM) …

Dynamical Conditions Of Ice Supersaturation And Ice Nucleation In Convective Systems: A Comparative Analysis Between In Situ Aircraft Observations And Wrf Simulations, John D'Alessandro, Minghui Diao, Chenglai Wu, Xiaohong Liu, Ming Chen, Hugh Morrison, Trude Eidhammer, Jorgen Jensen, Aaron Bansemer, Mark Zondlo, Joshua Digangi

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) > 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double‐moment microphysical schemes at temperatures ≤ −40°C. All four schemes capture both clear‐sky and in‐cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear‐sky (in‐cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by ~3–4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds ( …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Assessment Of An Atmospheric Transport Model For Annual Inverse Estimates Of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Justin Bagley, Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, Sally Newman, Jingsong Zhang, Chad Priest, Mixtli Campos-Pineda, Arlyn Andrews, Laura Bianco, Matthew Lloyd, Neil Lareau, Craig Clements, Marc Fischer

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Atmospheric inverse estimates of gas emissions depend on transport model predictions, hence driving a need to assess uncertainties in the transport model. In this study we assess the uncertainty in WRF-STILT (Weather Research and Forecasting and Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport) model predictions using a combination of meteorological and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements. WRF configurations were selected to minimize meteorological biases using meteorological measurements of winds and boundary layer depths from surface stations and radar wind profiler sites across California. We compare model predictions with CO measurements from four tower sites in California from June 2013 through May 2014 to assess …

Wiggle 3d Displays Of Weather Data, Frederick R. Mosher

Publications

Weather is a time varying 3-dimensional phenomena, but the displays of weather data are inherently 2-dimensional. Since weather phenomena at one level can impact the weather at another level, it would be desirable to view weather on a 3D volume type of display. Initially weather displays were on paper and currently weather information is displayed on computer screens. The human mind can interpret 3D volume information in a number of ways. Having two eyes, the brain can detect the parallax differences between the images for the left eye being slightly different from the right eye. Objects that are closer to …

Estimating Methane Emissions From Biological And Fossil-Fuel Sources In The San Francisco Bay Area, Seongeun Jeong, Xinguang Cui, Donald Blake, Ben Miller, Stephen Montzka, Arlyn Andrews, Abhinav Guha, Philip Martien, Ray Bambha, Brian Lafranchi, Hope Michelsen, Craig Clements, Pierre Glaize, Marc Fischer

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

We present the first sector-specific analysis of methane (CH4) emissions from the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) using CH4 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from six sites during September – December 2015. We apply a hierarchical Bayesian inversion to separate the biological from fossil-fuel (natural gas and petroleum) sources using the measurements of CH4 and selected VOCs, a source-specific 1 km CH4 emission model, and an atmospheric transport model. We estimate that SFBA CH4 emissions are 166–289 Gg CH4/yr (at 95% confidence), 1.3–2.3 times higher than a recent inventory with much of the underestimation from landfill. Including the VOCs, …

Data From: Observing System Simulation Experiments For An Array Of Autonomous Biogeochemical Profiling Floats In The Southern Ocean, Igor Kamenkovich, Angelique Haza, Alison R. Gray, Carolina O. Dufour, Zulema Garraffo

Supplementary Data and Tools

Data in this collection is from Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) that were carried in support of the SOCCOM program. Synthetic profiles were extracted from model-simulated dissolved oxygen and inorganic carbon. Full maps were then reconstructed from these sparse datasets, using objective mapping. For description of the model and reconstruction method please see Kamenkovich, I., A. Haza, A. Gray, C. Dufour, and Z. Garraffo: "Observing System Simulation Experiments for an array of autonomous biogeochemical profiling floats in the Southern Ocean", Journal of Geophysical Research, DOI: 10.1002/2017JC012819

Coral Bleaching And The Effect Of Disturbances On The Damselfish Community On Lizard Island, Australia, Alejandra Munoz

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Coral reefs are characterized by their dynamic ecological processes that supports a high diversity through the recruitment of marine species and temporal disturbances that can have positive effects on the system. In the face of global climate change however, coral reefs face intense coral bleaching and increased degradation as they may begin to have less time to recover between bleaching events in the near future. Little is known on the long term effects of coral bleaching and habitat degradation on reef fish communities and much less is known about the mechanisms that bring about changes to reef fish assemblages.

This …

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

A Climatological And Multiscale Analysis Of Cold Air Outbreaks In The Northeast United States, Zachary Baker Murphy

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The results of a climatological and multiscale analysis of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) that impacted the Northeast U.S. during 1948–2015 are presented. This climatological and multiscale analysis was based on daily minimum temperature data extracted from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily dataset for 53 stations that were distributed throughout nine climate regions defined by the NCEI. A CAO is diagnosed whenever two or more stations within an NCEI climate region experience three or more consecutive days where the daily minimum temperatures at a station fall below the 31-day centered moving average of the fifth …

Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

As tropical cyclones (TCs) move into the midlatitudes, they are often associated with extensive heavy precipitation. This precipitation can lead to widespread flooding events, such as occurred with Hurricane Irene (2011) over the northeastern United States. Despite the high-impact nature of these events, there are relatively few studies that explore the sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to model initial conditions, beyond focusing on the variability in forecast TC track.

Turbulence In The Upper Levels Of Tropical Cyclones, Michaela Leigh Rosenmayer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Turbulence in the cirrus canopy of tropical cyclones (TCs) can give an indication about the physical processes that occur in this expansive cloud deck. The low stability and/or large shear that likely coincides with turbulent layers can be produced by radiative forcing, convective forcing, and sublimation of frozen precipitation from the cirrus canopy. As a result, turbulence in the cirrus canopy can give an indication about the impact of various physical processes in tropical cyclones.

Determination And Analysis Of Dscovr-Eipc Satellite-Retrieved Radiance From Cloud Geometric And Optical Properties, Emily Christine Morgan

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Using simulations and numerical fitting, this work sought to describe the satellite-retrieved radiance of clouds as a function of their thermodynamic and optical properties. Subsequently, this understanding can then be used in a look-up-table to determine the properties of clouds imaged by the EPIC sensor in the NASA DSCOVR satellite. In this study, background oxygen absorption was modeled in a radiative transfer model and convolved with EPIC filter functions for two absorption-reference pairs for Oxygen A- and B-band. This absorption profile was established as the primary vertical coordinate in this study, leveraging the similarity principle to allow for intercomparison of …

Tropical Cyclone Intensification Under Moderate Vertical Wind Shear, Rosimar Rios-Berrios

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Deep-layer (200–850 hPa) vertical wind shear is generally an inhibiting factor for tropical cyclone intensification. Multiple studies—ranging from case studies to climatological analyses—have consistently shown that the chances of tropical cyclone intensification decrease with increasing vertical wind shear magnitude. However, tropical cyclones can intensify under moderate shear—the range of shear magnitudes that are neither too weak to have negligible influence on intensity nor too strong to completely halt intensification. Intensity, track, and precipitation forecasts of tropical cyclones under moderate shear can be highly uncertain; therefore, explaining how tropical cyclones evolve under seemingly unfavorable conditions is an important step towards improved …

Forecasting The Air Race Classic: Lessons In Interdisciplinary Aviation Weather Support And Decision-Making, Shawn M. Milrad, Debbie Schaum

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The Air Race Classic (ARC) is an all-female Visual Flight Rules air race held each June. Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach (ERAU-DB) has had primarily student race teams participate and frequently place strongly in the ARC since 1996. The ERAU-DB Meteorology Program has provided successful weather support to ERAU-DB race team(s) for the past decade, including as the terminus host institution in 2016. In 2014, the weather support was formalized as a three-credit interdisciplinary summer course, incorporating a mix of aeronautical science (pilot), dispatch, and meteorology students. Using concepts of service and experiential learning, the ARC course has successfully integrated …

Broadening Traditional Aviation Meteorology Education To Support Spaceflight Operations, Thomas A. Guinn, Nicholas J. Stapleton, Katherine A. Winters, Bradley M. Muller, Debbie M. Schaum

Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research

The purpose of this paper is to examine the expansion of traditional aviation meteorology education necessary to support the growing commercial space-operations industry. While spaceflight meteorological considerations do overlap with those of traditional aviation operations, there are notable differences schools must address for appropriate education and training of both meteorologists and operators. These include knowledge of increased weather sensitivities, space-weather impacts, triggered lightning, triboelectrification, and high-resolution vertical wind-profile analyses. An added challenge in the educational process is the more limited amount of publicly available weather and space-weather products necessary to support spaceflight education. Furthermore, in comparison with traditional aviation meteorology, …

Errors Encountered When Analyzing Radar And Storm Data, Kalita Kauffman, Tony Lyza

Summer Community of Scholars Posters (RCEU and HCR Combined Programs)

No abstract provided.