Meteorology Commons^™

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …

An Examination Of Physical And Empirical Approaches In Forecasting Nonconvective Wind Gusts, Jeramie Lippman

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Nonconvective winds can be a dangerous and costly weather hazard. For example, over a ten year span from 2002 to 2011, there were over 200 fatalities and nearly 1,000 injuries, as well as over 6.4 billion dollars in monetary losses due to high, nonconvective winds. An important subset to nonconvective winds is the nonconvective wind gust. When winds are already relatively strong, a sudden wind gust can magnify already existing hazards. Three different methods were evaluated to determine if either of two physically based algorithms can outperform an empirical algorithm. The two physically based methods were the Wind Gust Estimate …

Trends In The Ams Education Symposium And Highlights From 2012, Rajul Pandya, Donna Charlevoix, Eugene Cordero, David Smith, Sepi Yalda

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

The Department of Meteorology (now Atmospheric Sciences) at the University of Utah faced reductions in state funding in 2008 that reduced support for nontenured instructors at the same time that the faculty were becoming increasingly successful obtaining federally supported research grants. A faculty retreat and subsequent discussions led to substantive curriculum changes to modernize the curriculum, enhance course offerings for undergraduate and graduate students, and improve the overall efficiency of the academic program. Maintaining discipline standards and existing teaching loads were important constraints on these changes. Key features of the curriculum revisions for undergraduate majors included eliminating a very rigid …

Water Vapor And Temperature Comparisons Between Airs/Amsu-A And In Situ Aircraft Observations From 87°N To 67°S And Sensitivities To Spatial And Temporal Differences, Minghui Diao, Loayeh Jumbam, Justin Sheffield, Eric Wood, Mark Zondlo

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

No abstract available.

Comparison And Validation Of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (Trmm) Rainfall Algorithms In Tropical Cyclones, Joseph P. Zagrodnik

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall retrieval algorithms are evaluated in tropical cyclones (TCs). Differences between the Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals are found to be related to the storm region (inner core vs. rainbands) and the convective nature of the precipitation as measured by radar reflectivity and ice scattering signature. In landfalling TCs, the algorithms perform differently depending on whether the rainfall is located over ocean, land, or coastal surfaces. Various statistical techniques are applied to quantify these differences and identify the discrepancies in rainfall detection and intensity. Ground validation is accomplished by comparing the …

An Analysis Of Deep Convection Initiation Environments, Noah Lock

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Initiation is the part of the convective life cycle which is currently least understood and least well forecast. The inability to properly forecast the timing and/or location of deep convection initiation degrades forecast skill, especially during the warm season. The goals of this research are examine the spatiotemporal distribution of thunderstorm initiation points and to determine which atmospheric parameters (and ultimately processes) are most important for the initiation of thunderstorms. The spatiotemporal distribution of thunderstorm initiation points shows the expected peaks during summer and during the afternoon. The warm season also produces significant concentrations of initiation points near mountains, mainly …

Droughtscape- Fall 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report ....................... 1

Updated resources ................... 1

Drought outlook and review... 2

2012 and past droughters..... 4

Summer impacts summary.... 6

Urban planners and drought..... 9

USDM wins CLEAN seal... 10

Meixiu Yu's Chinese SPEI... 11

Ethiopian project..... 12

Mexican VegDRI.... 13

Drought monitor sculpture.... 14

Woolfolk, Dorothy (Gregory) (Sc 713), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

MSS Finding Aids

Finding aid and scan (Click on "additional files" below) for Manuscripts Small Collection 713. Letter written to Marjorie Clagett, Bowling Green, Kentucky, from Dorothy (Gregory) Woolfolk, Brandenburg, Meade County, Kentucky, in which she describes the tornado that devastated the town on 3 April 1974.

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Ocean Warmth, James B. Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Jill C. Trepanier, Thomas H. Jagger

Publications

No abstract provided.

Retrieval Of Sub-Pixel-Based Fire Intensity And Its Application For Characterizing Smoke Injection Heights And Fire Weather In North America, David Peterson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

For over two decades, satellite sensors have provided the locations of global fire activity with ever-increasing accuracy. However, the ability to measure fire intensity, know as fire radiative power (FRP), and its potential relationships to meteorology and smoke plume injection heights, are currently limited by the pixel resolution. This dissertation describes the development of a new, sub-pixel-based FRP calculation (FRP_f) for fire pixels detected by the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detection algorithm (Collection 5), which is subsequently applied to several large wildfire events in North America. The methodology inherits an earlier bi-spectral algorithm for retrieving sub-pixel …

General Aviation Weather Encounter Case Studies, John M. Lanicci, Massoud Bazargan, Daniel Halperin, Scott Shappell, Jaclyn Baron, Rebecca Iden, Carla Hackworth, Kali Holcomb

School of Graduate Studies - Daytona Beach

This study presents a compilation of 24 cases involving general aviation (GA) pilots’ weather encounters over the continental U.S. The project team interviewed pilots who had experienced a weather encounter, and we examined their backgrounds, flight experience, and weather encounter details. Results from meteorological data analysis for each weather encounter were consistent with findings of larger GA weather accident studies in terms of the types of hazards encountered and flight phase during which the encounters occurred. Investigation of pilot weather products and the sources from which they were obtained revealed a lack of uniformity of pre-flight data sources and underutilization …

Morris, Walter B. (Sc 29), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

MSS Finding Aids

Finding aid and scan (Click on "additional files" below) for Manuscripts Small Collection 29. Photocopies of letter written by Walter B. Morris, Gallatin, Tennessee, to his brother, Eastin Morris, Fort Pickering, Tennessee, pertaining to a shower of flesh and blood near Lebanon, Tennessee, on 17 August 1841, and of an article from American Journal of Science, 1841, pertaining to the same event. Also a letter to Julia Neal regarding photocopies, 1968.

Application Of The Weather Research And Forecasting (Wrf) Model To Simulate A Squall Line: Implications Of Choosing Parameterization Scheme Combinations And Model Initialization Data Sets, Mitchell Gaines

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

On January 29-30, 2008 a squall line of thunderstorms moved through the Ohio Valley resulting in four deaths and one injury. Such events highlight the importance of accurate forecasting for public safety. Mesoscale Modeling plays an important role in any forecast of a potential squall line. The focus of this study was to examine the performance of several parameterization scheme combinations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model version three (WRF) as they related to this event. These examinations included cloud microphysics (WRF Single-Moment 3-class, 6-class, and Goddard), cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch and Bets-Miller-Janjic) and planetary boundary layer schemes (Yonsei-University and …

Droughtscape- Summer 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report ....................... 1

Drought expanse....................... 1

Upcoming ranch workshops.... 3

Drought outlook and review ... 4

Spring impacts summary ......... 6

Hawaii impact workshops........ 9

Remote sensing of drought.... 10

China workshop ...................... 12

Estimating Annual Precipitation For The Colorado River Basin Using Oceanic-Atmospheric Oscillations, Ajay Kalra, Sajjad Ahmad

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Estimating long-lead time precipitation under the stress of increased climatic variability is a challenging task in the field of hydrology. A modified Support Vector Machine (SVM) based framework is proposed to estimate annual precipitation using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. Oceanic-atmospheric oscillations, consisting of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for a period of 1900–2008, are used to generate annual precipitation estimates with a 1 year lead time. The SVM model is applied to 17 climate divisions encompassing the Colorado River Basin in the western United States. The overall results revealed that …

Green Infrastructure Resource Directory, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Green infrastructure is an approach for managing stormwater that uses vegetation and soils to capture and treat rainwater where it falls. Unlike single-purpose gray infrastructure, green infrastructure realizes multiple benefits at once, including flood mitigation, improved water and air quality, community beautification, provision of recreational opportunities, and energy and cost savings. This resource directory is intended to help communities design, implement, fund, and monitor green infrastructure practices and programs. It was compiled by the Environmental Finance Center Network through the Capacity Building for Sustainable Communities program funded by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. …

Reproduction Of Twentieth Century Intradecadal To Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability In Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models, Patrick T. Brown, Eugene C. Cordero, Steven A. Mauget

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

[1] Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations that included time-varying radiative forcings were ranked according to their ability to consistently reproduce twentieth century intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) surface temperature variability at the 5° by 5° spatial scale. IMD variability was identified using the running Mann-Whitney Z method. Model rankings were given context by comparing the IMD variability in preindustrial control runs to observations and by contrasting the IMD variability among the ensemble members within each model. These experiments confirmed that the inclusion of time-varying external forcings brought simulations into closer agreement with observations. Additionally, they illustrated that the magnitude of …

Caswell County, North Carolina - Weather (Sc 406), Manuscripts & Folklife Archives

MSS Finding Aids

Finding aid and scan (Click on "Additional Files" below) for Manuscripts Small Collection 406. Notes by an unknown observer of the weather in Caswell County, North Carolina, 25 December 1844 to 6 January 1845.

Creation Of A Spatial Decision Support System As A Risk Assessment Tool Based On Kentucky Tornado Climatology, Christopher Michael Blinn

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Tornadoes are one of Mother Nature’s deadliest phenomena. They affect a large region of the United States. The risk of tornadoes is contingent on dynamic atmospheric conditions that are most likely during spring but which can occur anytime of the year, making the storms challenging to forecast. Using geographical information systems (GIS), a web-based spatial decision support system (SDSS) was created to help understand the spatial dimension of tornado risk assessment. The risk values are calculated using Tornado Days rather than taking a crude density measurement. The SDSS hosts GIS web services that are displayed on an Adobe Flex application. …

Large, Long-Lived Convective Systems Over Subtropical South America And Their Relationships With Atmospheric Teleconnections, Kyle Mattingly

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This study provides a climatological assessment of persistent elongated convective systems (PECS) over subtropical South America during the austral warm seasons of 1998-2007 and a comparison of PECS frequency and physical characteristics to mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) in the region. Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections and large, long-lived convective systems (LLCSs) are explored. An average of 143 PECS and 37 MCCs occurred per warm season. PECS lasted longer on average than MCCs (17 hrs. vs. 14 hrs.) and reached a greater average maximum cloud-shield extent than MCCs (297,300 km2 vs. 256,500 …

Long-Term Changes To The Frost-Free Season As A Function Of Climatic Continentality, Ian Blaylock

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

The beginning, end, and length of the annual frost-free season vary considerably both spatially and temporally. The continentality of the climate of a given area has a close connection with the magnitude and nature of these variations. Long term changes in the frost-free season can be divided into three distinct phases: a lengthening of the frost-free season in the early 20^th century, a shortening in the mid-20^th century, and a renewed, intensified lengthening from 1970 to today. While oceanic and ultraoceanic climates experience decreased incidence of frosts relative to their continental counterparts, analysis has shown that overall 20 …

Periodicities Of Peak Current And Flash Multiplicity In Cloud To Ground Lightning, Alexander R. Gibbs

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Research on lightning has been conducted on various topics including thunderstorm electrification and climatology of lightning strikes however; there are still some characteristics of lightning that are not well known, such as flash multiplicity and peak current as a function of individual thunderstorms. These characteristics are the leading cause of injuries and damage each year. This study examines a severe weather event in Minnesota on 16 September 2006, in order to determine what may cause peak current and flash multiplicity. Cycles in peak current and flash multiplicity are identified and then associated with CAPE to determine if a thunderstorm’s updraft …

Gis Mapping And Analysis Of Lake-Effect Snowfall Patterns In Indiana And Sw Michigan, Holly Boney, Matthew Christy

Symposium on Undergraduate Research and Creative Expression (SOURCE)

Using a multi-decade climatology of lake-effect snowfall events in northern Indiana and adjacent southwest Michigan, a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis has been developed to explore the spatial patterns of snowfall, as well as the relationship between snowfall and upstream sounding parameters. Using a minimum peak snowfall threshold of five cm reported at one of the available locations with long-term snow reports, there are ~250 cases in the data set. While there are numerous additional reports available for more recent events, particularly with CoCoRAHs data, only the stations available for the entire period were used for the analysis. While reducing …

Droughtscape- Spring 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report......................1

Climate Masters ..................... 1

Ranch plan workshop ............. 3

Winter climate summary ........ 4

Winter impacts summary ....... 6

Zhao research.........................9

Getachew research ..............10

Other international news......12

Wardlow move ..................... 13

IPCC disaster report .............14

Synoptic-Scale Analysis Of Freezing Rain Events In Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Gina M. Ressler, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum

Publications

Freezing rain is a major environmental hazard that is especially common along the St. Lawrence River valley (SLRV) in southern Quebec, Canada. For large cities such as Montreal, severe events can have a devastating effect on people, property, and commerce. In this study, a composite analysis of 46 long-duration events for the period 1979–2008 is presented to identify key synoptic-scale structures and precursors of Montreal freezing rain events. Based on the observed structures of the 500-hPa heights, these events are manually partitioned into three types—west, central, and east—depending on the location and tilt of the 500-hPa trough axis. West events …

November Snowfall Variability And Trends Around Lake Michigan: Sensitivity To Temperature And Teleconnection Patterns, Amanda Bandurski, Justin Barrick, Kristin Smedley

Symposium on Undergraduate Research and Creative Expression (SOURCE)

Using available long-term stations, November climatology of temperature and snowfall since 1950 has been composited for the region near Lake Michigan. Daily data was examined for the available stations to explore the monthly temperature and snowfall, the number of days with snowfall, and snow cover. The characteristics of six sub-region composites were compared using composites around Lake Michigan, respectively. Early season snowfall is much more common in the eastern sub-regions, implying a dominant role of lake-effect snowfall to the overall climatology. The number of days with snowfall is greater in the eastern sub-regions. Western and eastern sub-regions both exhibit a …

Water And Energy Balance Response Of A Riparian Wetland To The Removal Of Phragmites Australis, Phillip Mykleby

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Vegetation and climate both play integral roles in water availability, particularly for arid to semi-arid regions. Changes in these variables can lead to extreme shortages in water for regions that rely on water for crop irrigation (i.e., the Great Plains). The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of vegetation on water availability in the Republican River basin in central Nebraska. Decreases in streamflow have been observed in the river basin for many years and, as a result, an invasive riparian plant species (Phragmites australis) is being removed in an effort to reduce evapotranspiration and reclaim …

Ice Supersaturation And Cirrus Clouds In Hippo Global Campaign #1-5, Minghui Diao, Mark Zondlo

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

No abstract available.

Application Of A Mini-Unmanned Aircraft System For In Situ Monitoring Of Fire Plume Thermodynamics Properties, Caroline Keifer, Craig Clements, Brian Potter

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Direct measurements of wildland fire plume properties are rare because of difficult access to regions near the fire front and plume. Moisture released from combustion, in addition to added heat, can enhance buoyancy and convection, influencing fire behavior. In this study, a mini unmanned aircraft system (miniUAS) was used to obtain in situ measurements of temperature and relative humidity during a prescribed fire. The miniUAS was successfully maneuvered through the plume and its associated turbulence and provided observations of temperature and humidity profiles from near the centerline of the plume. Within the plume, the water vapor mixing ratio increased by …

Evaluating Modeled Intra- To Multidecadal Climate Variability Using Running Mann–Whitney Z Statistics, Steven A. Mauget, Eugene C. Cordero, Patrick T. Brown

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

An analysis method previously used to detect observed intra- to multidecadal (IMD) climate regimes was adapted to compare observed and modeled IMD climate variations. Pending the availability of the more appropriate phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) simulations, the method is demonstrated using CMIP-3 model simulations. Although the CMIP-3 experimental design will almost certainly prevent these model runs from reproducing features of historical IMD climate variability, these simulations allow for the demonstration of the method and illustrate how the models and observations disagree. This method samples a time series’s data rankings over moving time windows, converts those ranking sets …