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Simulation Of The Recent Multidecadal Increase Of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using An 18-Km-Grid Regional Model, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held, Robert E. Tuleya
Simulation Of The Recent Multidecadal Increase Of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using An 18-Km-Grid Regional Model, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held, Robert E. Tuleya
CCPO Publications
In this study, a new modeling framework for simulating Atlantic hurricane activity is introduced. The model is an 18-km-grid nonhydrostatic regional model, run over observed specified SSTs and nudged toward observed time-varying large-scale atmospheric conditions (Atlantic domain wavenumbers 0-2) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Using this "perfect large-scale model" approach for 27 recent August-October seasons (1980-2006), it is found that the model successfully reproduces the observed multidecadal increase in numbers of Atlantic hurricanes and several other tropical cyclone (TC) indices over this period. The correlation of simulated versus observed hurricane activity by year varies from …