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Articles 31 - 60 of 130
Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
A Glint Contaminated Pixel Correction Algorithm And Potential Application For Estimating Water Visibility, Andrea Taggart
A Glint Contaminated Pixel Correction Algorithm And Potential Application For Estimating Water Visibility, Andrea Taggart
Theses and Dissertations
Glint in satellite reflectance images contaminates pixels making it difficult to ascertain what lies beneath the water surface. An algorithm was created to correct glint contaminated pixels using a nearest neighbor non-glint pixel search algorithm written in Python. The results of the glint corrected pixels were then analyzed using an algorithm to estimate water visibility using light attenuation depths and second derivative estimators based upon glint corrected satellite reflectance using channels from a WorldView-3 (WV-3) image. The above was accomplished for sand, mud, and seagrass bottom types. The results suggest that estimated attenuation depths (a measure of water visibility) is …
Correction Of Back Trajectories Utilizing Machine Learning, Britta F. Gjermo Morrison
Correction Of Back Trajectories Utilizing Machine Learning, Britta F. Gjermo Morrison
Theses and Dissertations
The goal of this work was to analyze 24-hour back trajectory performance from a global, low-resolution weather model compared to a high-resolution limited area weather model in particular meteorological regimes, or flow patterns using K-means clustering, an unsupervised machine learning technique. The duration of this study was from 2015-2019 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three different machine learning algorithms were tested to study the utility of these methods improving the performance of the CFS relative to the performance of the RAP. The aforementioned machine learning techniques are linear regression, Bayesian ridge regression, and random forest regression. These results mean …
Ccsfs/Ksc Total Lightning Warning Radii Optimization For Merlin Using Preexisting Lightning Areas, Kimberly G. Holland
Ccsfs/Ksc Total Lightning Warning Radii Optimization For Merlin Using Preexisting Lightning Areas, Kimberly G. Holland
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to optimize lightning warning radii specifications for the 45th Space Wing (45 SW), thus reducing the number of unnecessary warnings that delay ground processing needed for space launch execution at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. This thesis sought to answer two key research questions addressing: 1) What radius reduction effectively balances both safety and operations and do reduction recommendations from previous research align with results from the new detection system? 2) What insights can be gained from comparing measurement results for seasonal lightning events as well as lightning types? This …
Behavior Of Lightning In Developing Storms, Erick A. Tello
Behavior Of Lightning In Developing Storms, Erick A. Tello
Theses and Dissertations
Air Force weather squadrons issue a warning when lightning activity is observed within 5 nautical miles (NM) of protected areas. Upon receiving this warning, personnel outdoors are expected to pause work and move inside. Studies sponsored by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) have concluded that the 5 NM warning radius can be safely reduced for well-developed storms. This thesis investigates whether radii for storms in early development can also be reduced. Our research develops algorithms to partition lightning sensor data into storms. Next, storms are filtered to their earliest lightning events, and the study calculates distances between successive early …
An Analysis Of A Lighting Prediction Threshold For 45th Weather Squadron Electric Field Mill Data, Charles A. Skrovan
An Analysis Of A Lighting Prediction Threshold For 45th Weather Squadron Electric Field Mill Data, Charles A. Skrovan
Theses and Dissertations
The mission of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) is to “exploit the weather to assure safe access to air and space” for Patrick Air Force Base, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in support of various operations (United States Air Force, n.d.). To support that mission the 45 WS hosts a suite of weather detection instruments that include a lightning warning system that consists of an array of 31 electric field mills (EFM) and a lightning detection and ranging system (Department of the Air Force, 1976). Electric field mills at Cape Canaveral continuously record …
A Probabilistic Approach To Generating Representative Wind Forcing And Wave Heights Within An Estuarine Environment, Vanessa Maria Haley
A Probabilistic Approach To Generating Representative Wind Forcing And Wave Heights Within An Estuarine Environment, Vanessa Maria Haley
Theses and Dissertations
While wind driven waves affect erosion, sediment resuspension, and flow in shallow estuaries like the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), neither winds nor waves are well observed in this environment. In order to calculate accurate significant wave heights, the winds used for the calculation must be consistent with the observed winds over the lagoon. Given the complex land/water geometry and subsequent limited fetch, a probabilistic approach is used to produce a representative wind field over the IRL. Observed winds, near the IRL, are used to sample wind distributions obtained from 180 high resolution atmospheric model simulations in order to generate a …
Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer
Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer
Theses and Dissertations
This study investigates the radiative transfer code, Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR), developed by the Center for Directed Energy at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Many multi- and hyperspectral applications are limited to the nighttime due in large part to daytime solar background noise and it is advantageous to be able to quantify this background noise using LEEDR. Real-time meteorological surface observations, numerical weather prediction, and aerosol particle concentrations were used to investigate the accuracy of LEEDR radiances simulations. Comparisons between simulations and measured values show that aerosol concentrations, weather predictions, and meteorological observations provide enough information …
Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski
Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski
Theses and Dissertations
Lightning poses a significant hazard to space launch operations to include ground processing, launch window forecasts, and rocket-triggered lightning events. Two lightning initiation forecast methods using weather radar developed in Gremillion and Orville (1999) and Travis (2015) for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida are tested in a new geographical region. This is accomplished by applying the highest-performing radar parameters from Gremillion and Orville (1999): reectivity (Z) ≥ 40 dBZ for two consecutive volume scans at the -10°C thermal height and Travis (2015): Z ≥ 36.5 dBZ with differential reflectivity (ZDR) ≥ 0.31 dB …
Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Dominick V. Speranza
Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Dominick V. Speranza
Theses and Dissertations
Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) all reside in the thunderstorm capital of the United States. According to the Florida Climate Center, these installations experience more thunderstorms per year than any other place in the United States. It is the mission of the 45th Weather Squadron to provide timely and accurate warnings of weather conditions such as lightning that pose a risk to assets and personnel CCAFS, KSC and PAFB. To aid 45th Weather Squadron forecasters, a network of 30 Electric Field Mills (EFM) was installed in the area in …
Effect Of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables To Modify Forecast Predictions, Sarah A. Gold
Effect Of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables To Modify Forecast Predictions, Sarah A. Gold
Theses and Dissertations
The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) records daily rain and lightning probabilistic forecasts and the associated binary event outcomes. Subsequently, they evaluate forecast performance and determine necessary adjustments with an implemented verification process. For deterministic outcomes, weather forecast analysis typically utilizes a Tradition Contingency Table (TCT) for verification, however the 45 WS uses an alternative tool, the Probabilistic Contingency Table (PCT). Using the TCT for verification requires a threshold, typically at 50%, to dichotomize probabilistic forecasts. The PCT maintains the valuable information in probabilities and verifies the true forecasts being reported. Simulated forecasts and outcomes as well as 2015-2018 45 …
Wind-Driven Setup, Roughness, And Drag Over A Depth- And Fetch-Limited Coastal Estuary, Jeffrey Allen Colvin
Wind-Driven Setup, Roughness, And Drag Over A Depth- And Fetch-Limited Coastal Estuary, Jeffrey Allen Colvin
Theses and Dissertations
The understanding of the momentum exchange across the air-sea interface is critical to accurately model and forecast wind speed, wave properties, setup, and circulation. This is particularly true for a restricted estuary, such as the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), where wind is the driving force behind water movement due to the limited number of direct ocean connections. Current atmospheric and hydrodynamic models use formulations of the drag coefficient and/or roughness length based on open ocean studies in which wave properties are not considered. This dissertation develops two parameterizations – one for wind setup and one for the drag coefficient – …
The Geographic Distribution Of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida, Tania M. Garza
The Geographic Distribution Of Downburst Frequency Across Spaceport Florida, Tania M. Garza
Theses and Dissertations
Strong winds from downbursts pose a significant hazard to personnel and launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The CCAFS/KSC complex has a robust mesonet from which an 18 year (1995-2012) warm-season convective wind climatology (WSCWC) was developed (Koermer 2017). While the frequency of downbursts in the area has been determined, the frequency at the individual tower locations has not. The 5-minute peak wind data from the WSCWC was analyzed to determine the geographic distribution of downburst frequency across Spaceport Florida. For this project a downburst was determined by the threshold of …
Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins
Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins
Theses and Dissertations
Satellites with microwave remote sensing capabilities can be utilized to study atmospheric phenomena through high-level cloud cover (particularly cirrus), an advantage over visible and infrared bands, which only sense cloud tops. This unique capability makes microwave imagery ideal for studying the cloud structures of tropical cyclones (TCs) in detail, and relating these features to TC intensity. Techniques to estimate the intensity of TCs using infrared imagery, such as the Dvorak technique, have been used in TC forecasting for 40 years. However, due to the inherent temporal limitations of microwave imagery, no such similar technique exists for the microwave spectrum. This …
A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger
A New Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasts In Northern Africa, Gabriel D. Donndelinger
Theses and Dissertations
Severe wind gusts and thunderstorms have been difficult to forecast in Africa. Traditional convective forecast tools (e.g. Total Totals Index, Lifted Index, K Index (KI) and Convective Available Potential Energy) do not accurately portray potential for thunderstorms in Africa. This research effort used the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI), a convective index created for the tropics, and assess its applicability to northern Africa. GDI was produced for the Caribbean and Central America, and utilized temperature, moisture, mid-level stability, dry air entrainment and an elevation factor to calculate convective potential. In this research, GDI and KI were calculated using Global Forecast System (GFS) …
Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden
Forecasting Lightning Cessation Using Dual-Polarization Radar And Lightning Mapping Array Near Washington, D.C., Nancy M. Holden
Theses and Dissertations
Accurate forecasts of thunderstorms are important to space launch, aviation, and public safety. While prior studies have primarily focused on atmospheric conditions leading to lightning onset, less research has been dedicated to the challenging problem of predicting lightning cessation. This study verifies the probabilistic lightning cessation model developed by Joseph Patton (2017) at Florida State University for use by the U.S. Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The Washington, D.C. greater metropolitan area, which presents a climate different to that of central …
Influence Of Ndbc Buoy Design On Sea Surface Temperature Trends In The Coastal United States, Alexander Keith Nickerson
Influence Of Ndbc Buoy Design On Sea Surface Temperature Trends In The Coastal United States, Alexander Keith Nickerson
Theses and Dissertations
The sea surface temperature (SST) record is the one of the oldest climate records, stretching back to 1662. Since that time, voluntary observing ships (VOSs) have been including these data in their ship‘s log. Due to the sparseness of VOS data, moored buoys were created to provide data at regular intervals in order to provide a more continuous record with data collection unaffected by human error. The SST sensor in National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys is inside a hull and not in direct contact with the ocean. Thus, the design of the buoy may subject them to additional biases …
An Analysis Of The Moisture And Moist Static Energy Budgets In Amip Simulations, Kristine Adelaide Boykin
An Analysis Of The Moisture And Moist Static Energy Budgets In Amip Simulations, Kristine Adelaide Boykin
Theses and Dissertations
An analysis of the second phase of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations has been conducted to understand the physical processes that control precipitation in the tropics. This is achieved primarily through the analysis of the moisture and moist static energy budgets. Overall, there is broad agreement between the simulated and observed precipitation, although specific tropical regions such as the Maritime Continent poses challenges to these simulations. The models in general capture the latitudinal distribution of precipitation and key precipitating regions including the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Asian Monsoon. The simulations portrayed the global patterns of evaporation …
Surface Cooling Due To Precipitation In The Tropics, Camila Gomes Martins Ramos
Surface Cooling Due To Precipitation In The Tropics, Camila Gomes Martins Ramos
Theses and Dissertations
Precipitation is an important component of the global hydrological cycle. It affects the upper ocean salinity by adding freshwater to the ocean. In addition, precipitation plays a role in cooling the ocean and land surfaces, when the temperature of the raindrops is lower than the temperature of the surface. However, the surface cooling due to precipitation (QP) remains an overlooked feature and is not included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models. One might expect that heavy precipitation events may lead to large QP, which can impact the surface temperature, surface energy balance, and local- to regional-scale circulations. …
Meeting The Dod’S Tactical Weather Needs Using Cubesats, Shayna K. Mckenney
Meeting The Dod’S Tactical Weather Needs Using Cubesats, Shayna K. Mckenney
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis investigates a CubeSat design that uses Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) components to capture, store, process, and downlink collected terrestrial weather data at resolutions near stat-of-the-art. The weather phenomena to be detected and transmitted in a timely manner are cloud formations, wind profiles, ocean currents, sea state, lightning, temperature profiles, and precipitation. It is hypothesized and shown that the proposed design will provide an improvement on the current U.S. tactical weather collection satellites because of the anticipated increased reliability and lowered cost to build and maintain the proposed CubeSat constellation. The methodology employed a multi-phase approach through the collective research of …
The Reliability And Skill Of Air Force Weather’S Ensemble Prediction Suites, Derek A. Burns
The Reliability And Skill Of Air Force Weather’S Ensemble Prediction Suites, Derek A. Burns
Theses and Dissertations
The Ensemble Prediction Suites (EPS) used at the 557th Weather Wing (557 WW) provide probability based forecasts for thousands of worldwide locations. Point Ensemble Probability (PEP) bulletins are tailored specifically to the United States military and its criteria for operationally significant weather. This study assesses the performance of PEPs from each EPS at 17 Continental United States (CONUS) locations. Results from April to October of 2015 show that each EPS is underforecasting ceilings and visibility for most forecast hours at several locations. The underforecasting of ceilings is most severe at Vandenberg AFB, an area prone to frequent marine layer fog …
Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King
Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King
Theses and Dissertations
Summer thunderstorms pose the greatest forecast challenge for the United States Air Force's 96th Weather Flight (96WF) which provides weather support for Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). Located on Florida's panhandle, Eglin AFB encompasses the Department of Defense's largest range complex which covers 134,000 sq mi (347,000 sq km) of water and 724 sq mi (1875 sq km) of land. Due to the base's coastal location and unique coastline geometry, sea breeze is a dominant forecast consideration for thunderstorms. The 96 WF currently utilizes an empirical method, called WINNDEX, developed by former staff meteorologist Roger Winn to aid in thunderstorm …
Operational Exploitation Of Satellite-Based Sounding Data And Numerical Weather Prediction Models For Directed Energy Applications, David C. Meier
Operational Exploitation Of Satellite-Based Sounding Data And Numerical Weather Prediction Models For Directed Energy Applications, David C. Meier
Theses and Dissertations
The wealth of available scientific data collected by the modern constellation of meteorological satellites can be exploited in new and innovative ways, with direct benefit to directed energy applications. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) provides accurate, geolocated temperature data, which are used as the starting point for the derivation of atmospheric parameters critical to prediction of sensor or directed energy system performance. Twenty-four hour data coverage is achieved by extending the atmospheric characterization between satellite observations using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. A technique is developed to derive wind profiles using AIRS temperature data and the accuracy of these winds …
Utilizing Four Dimensional Lightning And Dual-Polarization Radar To Develop Lightning Initiation Forecast Guidance, Andrew J. Travis
Utilizing Four Dimensional Lightning And Dual-Polarization Radar To Develop Lightning Initiation Forecast Guidance, Andrew J. Travis
Theses and Dissertations
Lightning initiation is a major forecast challenge faced by Air Force's 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides weather support to Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Prior studies by Thurmond (2014) and Woodard (2011) have shown that dual-polarization (DP) radar can be used to identify the presence of hydrometeors indicative of cloud charging, leading to improved lightning initiation forecasts. The 45 WS currently employs empirical lightning initiation forecast rules which state that in-cloud lightning is likely when radar reflectivity meets or exceeds 37.0 dBZ above the -10°C height. This study examined 249 convective cells from …
Evaluating The Surface Layer Wind Profile In The Wrf, Robert Stephen James
Evaluating The Surface Layer Wind Profile In The Wrf, Robert Stephen James
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the surface vertical wind profile responds to different planetary boundary layer schemes in computer models. Local surface roughness is one of the elements represented in these schemes, and is used when interpolating winds down from the lowest model level to the surface, so this needs to be accurately represented in the model. Computer models rely on one bulk estimate of surface roughness for a given grid point, despite the complexity of surrounding terrain. Data for this research was gathered from local surface observations and computer simulations, which looked at two different …
Validation Of The Air Force Weather Agency Ensemble Prediction Systems, William B. Clements
Validation Of The Air Force Weather Agency Ensemble Prediction Systems, William B. Clements
Theses and Dissertations
Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS), Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS), 20km Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS20) and 4km Mesoscale Prediction System (MEPS4), were evaluated from April to October 2013 for 10 locations around the world to determine how accurately forecast probabilities for wind and precipitation thresholds and lightning occurrence match observed frequencies using Aerodrome Routine Meteorological Reports (METARs) and Aerodrome Special Meteorological Reports (SPECIs). Reliability diagrams were created for each forecast hour detailing the Brier skill score (BSS) to depict EPS performance compared to climatology for each site and score composition through reliability, resolution and uncertainty. …
Turbulence Measurement In The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using Cellular Telephone Signals, Lee R. Burchett
Turbulence Measurement In The Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using Cellular Telephone Signals, Lee R. Burchett
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis investigated a new method for measuring the intensity of turbulence in the planetary boundary layer that shows a high correlation with measurements from weather radar. The method takes measurements of cell phone signal strength and uses scintillation in the signal to estimate the strength of local turbulence. Using cell phone signals provides unique measurement advantages: it is a passive measurement method, it is not strongly affected by precipitation, and one device can potentially measure several paths at once. The measurements were taken using an Android® cell phone running a custom built application. The strength of turbulence was quantified …
Operations-Focused Optimized Theater Weather Sensing Strategies Using Preemptive Binary Integer Programming, Andrew J. Geyer
Operations-Focused Optimized Theater Weather Sensing Strategies Using Preemptive Binary Integer Programming, Andrew J. Geyer
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis describes a method that optimally deploys weather sensors of all types in a battlefield environment. Gridded climatology models are used to determine an estimate for the weighted frequency of occurrence of operationally significant inclement weather events. That data is used to formulate a series of preemptive Binary Integer Linear Programs that maximize detection of expected operationally significant inclement weather occurrences within the constraints of feasibility of sensor deployment, sensor operational lifespan and the sensor’s ability to detect the operationally significant inclement weather elements. The preemptive Binary Integer Linear Programs are combined into a single objective function that maintains …
Assessment Of Weather Sensitivities And Air Force Weather (Afw) Support To Tactical Lasers In The Lower Troposphere, Francesco J. Echeverria
Assessment Of Weather Sensitivities And Air Force Weather (Afw) Support To Tactical Lasers In The Lower Troposphere, Francesco J. Echeverria
Theses and Dissertations
ATL scientists need to develop a full understanding of the interaction effects between a high-energy laser beam and the atmosphere through which it propagates. Achieving this understanding is important for many reasons. In particular, the high cost of DE weapons systems makes each propagation event expensive. Having an understanding of the atmosphere in which a high-energy laser propagates will increase efficiency and effectiveness of the ATL weapon system, which in turn will decrease cost of operation. A tool that allows for the ATL war-fighter to determine the atmospheric effects on laser propagation currently does not exist. This study creates a …
Modeling Study Of 2006 Central Florida Wildfires Using Fire Area Simulator, Danielle Denise Carpenter
Modeling Study Of 2006 Central Florida Wildfires Using Fire Area Simulator, Danielle Denise Carpenter
Theses and Dissertations
“Fire weather” addresses fire behavior in specified fuels under various weather conditions. In a wildland context, the term “fuel” describes any organic matter, live or dead, that will ignite and bum in a fire. Fuels vary in species, location, and abundance, and may lie in a substrate, surface layer, and/or canopy. Fuel moisture varies to maintain equilibrium with the atmosphere. Fire propagation is the progressive movement of fire in space and time. Advancements of fire from one discrete fuel element to the next is a process that involves heat production, heat transfer, and heat absorption, and is dependent on fuel …
Development Of A Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (Dmsp) F-15 Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst) Index, James M. Bono
Development Of A Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (Dmsp) F-15 Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst) Index, James M. Bono
Theses and Dissertations
As the DoD's use of space and space assets increases, so does its need for timely and accurate predictions of space weather conditions. A good understanding of the data from satellites together with data from ground stations can help model and determine variations in the space environment. An accurate, real-time Disturbance storm-time (Dst) index would be a primary input into current and future space weather models The Dst index is a measure of geomagnetic activity used to assess the severity of magnetic storms. The index is based on the average value of the horizontal component of the Earth's magnetic field …