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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Multifidelity Prediction In Wildfire Spread Simulation: Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis, Mario Miguel Valero, Lluís Jofre, Ricardo Torres
Multifidelity Prediction In Wildfire Spread Simulation: Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis, Mario Miguel Valero, Lluís Jofre, Ricardo Torres
Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity
Wildfire behavior predictions typically suffer from significant uncertainty. However, wildfire modeling uncertainties remain largely unquantified in the literature, mainly due to computing constraints. New multifidelity techniques provide a promising opportunity to overcome these limitations. Therefore, this paper explores the applicability of multifidelity approaches to wildland fire spread prediction problems. Using a canonical simulation scenario, we assessed the performance of control variates Monte-Carlo (MC) and multilevel MC strategies, achieving speedups of up to 100x in comparison to a standard MC method. This improvement was leveraged to quantify aleatoric uncertainties and analyze the sensitivity of the fire rate of spread (RoS) to …
A Case Study Of Stratospheric Ozone Transport To The Northern San Francisco Bay Area And Sacramento Valley During Cabots 2016, Jodie Clark, Sen Chiao
A Case Study Of Stratospheric Ozone Transport To The Northern San Francisco Bay Area And Sacramento Valley During Cabots 2016, Jodie Clark, Sen Chiao
Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity
The California Baseline Ozone Transport Study (CABOTS) was a major air quality study that collected ozone measurements aloft between mid-May and mid-August of 2016. Aircraft measurements, ground-based lidar measurements, and balloon-borne ozonesondes collected precise upper-air ozone measurements across the central and Southern California valley. Utilizing daily ozonesonde data from Bodega Bay, California, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), reanalysis data for 25 July to 14 August 2016, three stratospheric intrusion events are identified over Northern California influencing air masses above Bodega Bay and Sacramento simultaneously. Calculated percent daily changes in afternoon ozonesonde observations indicate increasing …