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Articles 31 - 60 of 99
Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Comparison Of A Conceptual Model And Objective Indicators Of Extratropical Transition In The Western North Pacific, Gregory D. Fox
Comparison Of A Conceptual Model And Objective Indicators Of Extratropical Transition In The Western North Pacific, Gregory D. Fox
Theses and Dissertations
The primary purpose of this research is to provide guidance to forecasters from the Joint (Air Force/Navy) Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor to use in differentiating between the stages of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Not only is ET relevant to the Department of Defense, since JTWC stops providing TC warnings once they have undergone ET, but it is also applicable to the meteorological community since there currently "is no commonly accepted definition of ET" (Jones et al 2003). This research compares the results of a conceptual model of ET using subjective satellite analysis with the …
Forecasting Advective Sea Fog With The Use Of Classification And Regression Tree Analyses For Kunsan Air Base, Danielle M. Lewis
Forecasting Advective Sea Fog With The Use Of Classification And Regression Tree Analyses For Kunsan Air Base, Danielle M. Lewis
Theses and Dissertations
Advective sea fog frequently plagues Kunsan Air Base (AB), Republic of Korea, in the spring and summer seasons. It is responsible for a variety of impacts on military operations, the greatest being to aviation. To date, there are no suitable methods developed for forecasting advective sea fog at Kunsan, primarily due to a lack of understanding of sea fog formation under various synoptic situations over the Yellow Sea. This work explored the feasibility of predicting sea fog development with a 24-hour forecast lead time. Before exploratory data analysis was performed, a geographical introduction to the region was provided along with …
Verification Of Meteorological Data Reports From The Rq-4a Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Steven M. Callis
Verification Of Meteorological Data Reports From The Rq-4a Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Steven M. Callis
Theses and Dissertations
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have onboard sensors that continuously record weather data during their missions. This information is extremely valuable to both the meteorological and UAV communities with numerous potential benefits, which include improved weather forecast products and additional weather intelligence for military planners. The value of any dataset is directly related to its accuracy and this research determined the accuracy of weather data obtained from a particular UAV, the RQ-4A Global Hawk. This was accomplished through statistical analysis and comparisons with upper-air data and Atmospheric Slant Path Analysis Model (ASPAM) profiles of the atmosphere. Recommendations are provided for the …
Dust Storm Forecasting For Al Udeid Ab, Qatar: An Empirical Analysis, Kevin S. Bartlett
Dust Storm Forecasting For Al Udeid Ab, Qatar: An Empirical Analysis, Kevin S. Bartlett
Theses and Dissertations
Dust storms are extreme weather events that have strong winds laden with visibility reducing and operations limiting dust, The Central Command Air Forces (CENTAF) 28th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) is ultimately responsible for forecasting weather in the vast, data denied region of Southwest Asia in support of daily military and humanitarian operations. As a result, the 28th OWS requests a simplified forecasting tool to help predict mesoscale dust events that affect coalition operations at Al Udeid AB, Qatar. This research satisfies the 28th OWS request through an extensive statistical analysis of observational data depicting seasonal dust events over the past …
Feasibility Of Using Classification Analyses To Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification, Jonathan W. Leffler
Feasibility Of Using Classification Analyses To Determine Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification, Jonathan W. Leffler
Theses and Dissertations
Tropical cyclone intensity techniques developed by Dvorak have thus far been regarded by tropical meteorologists as the best identification and forecast schemes available using satellite imagery. However, in recent years, several ideologies have arisen which discuss alternative means of determining typhoon rapid intensification or weakening in the Pacific. These theories include examining channel outflow patterns, potential vorticity superposition and anomalies, tropical upper tropospheric trough interactions, environmental influences, and upper tropospheric flow transitions. It is now possible to data mine these atmospheric parameters thought partly responsible for typhoon rapid intensification and weakening to validate their usefulness in the forecast process. Using …
A Statistically-Based Method For Predicting Fog And Stratus Dissipation, Louis L. Lussier Iii
A Statistically-Based Method For Predicting Fog And Stratus Dissipation, Louis L. Lussier Iii
Theses and Dissertations
The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine. Ceiling forecasts at Dover AFB and McGuire AFB show improvements over conditional climatology ranging from 1-51% with an average improvement of 19.2% when verified against an independent data set. McGuire AFB visibility forecasts show an average improvement over conditional climatology of 3%. These findings are of particular importance to the Air Force in general and specifically to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron (15 OWS) who produces …
Evaluation Of The Mountain Wave Forecast Model's Stratospheric Turbulence Simulations, Mark S. Allen
Evaluation Of The Mountain Wave Forecast Model's Stratospheric Turbulence Simulations, Mark S. Allen
Theses and Dissertations
Stratospheric turbulence (Stratoturb) is a well-known hazard to aircraft in flight. Forecasting mountain waves, specifically the breaking of these waves, is necessary to accurately predict the presence of Stratoturb. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) requested a product with the capability of forecasting Stratoturb at 30, 50, and 70 mb using model data currently available, To facilitate their request, the Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM) was acquired from the Naval Research Laboratory. MWFM turbulence forecasts generated twice daily over East Asia, using the AVN and MM5 models for initialization, were compared to S' layer turbulence analyses from the Rawinsonde Observation …
Comparison Of The Refractive Index Structure Constant Derived From Numerical Weather Prediction (Nwp) Models And Thermosonde Data, De Leon C. Narcisse
Comparison Of The Refractive Index Structure Constant Derived From Numerical Weather Prediction (Nwp) Models And Thermosonde Data, De Leon C. Narcisse
Theses and Dissertations
An accurate depiction of atmospheric turbulence is required for successful employment of a viable airborne laser for the Department of Defense (DOD). The ABL Special Program Office (SEC) which is tasked by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) bas not designated any particular numerical weather model that is tasked exclusively to model optical turbulence This research compares CLEAR1, 2 X CLEAR I and thermosonde derived values of the refractive index structure constant to optical turbulence values derived from several numerical weather prediction models currently in use by the DOD. The models used were the fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5), the Coupled …
Forecasting Excessive Rainfall And Low-Cloud Bases East Of The Northern Andes And Mesoscale Convective Complex Movement In Central South America, Marc R. Gasbarro
Forecasting Excessive Rainfall And Low-Cloud Bases East Of The Northern Andes And Mesoscale Convective Complex Movement In Central South America, Marc R. Gasbarro
Theses and Dissertations
This research produces better forecast tools for SOUTHCOM's 25th Operational Weather Squadron (OWS) over multiple areas of operation in South America. Heavy rainfall and low-cloud base events along the northeastern Andes foothills are examined, as well as, mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) in Central South America (CSA). Low clouds, fog, and flooding rains hamper daily Department of Defense (DoD) counter-drug operations in Northwestern South America (NWSA). In addition, fierce MCCs interfere with joint-military exercises in CSA.
Long Range Forecast Possibilities For X-Band Radar Construction On Shemya, Brian K. Schroeder
Long Range Forecast Possibilities For X-Band Radar Construction On Shemya, Brian K. Schroeder
Theses and Dissertations
Current moisture initialization sources lack the spatial and temporal resolution required for mesoscale moisture forecast accuracy critical for military operations. The Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite constellation provides an opportunity to extract accurate moisture observations based on the refraction of the GPS signal through the troposphere. GPS-derived precipitable water (PW) from two different research areas was independently compared with the Air Force Weather Agency s (AFWA's) MM5 PW model output. Results were concurrent with similar studies comparing GPS-derived PW with numerical weather models. The mean correlation in CONUS was 92.5%, while in Alaska it was 72.8%. Mean model biases were …
Quantification Of The Effects Of Data Denial And Limitation In Mm5 Initialization On Forecast Accuracy, Robert W. Evans
Quantification Of The Effects Of Data Denial And Limitation In Mm5 Initialization On Forecast Accuracy, Robert W. Evans
Theses and Dissertations
The current hub-and-spoke network in the European Theater is made up of locations built and organized around a Cold War threat. The threat of large-scale attrition warfare seems to have passed, and the threat of multiple, smaller scale contingencies has placed greater demands on the US military's ability to transport equipment and personnel to multiple locations simultaneously. This research effort utilizes a Multiple Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to analyze optimal hub locations in USEUCOM. The model used to analyze the network was developed in Microsoft Excel and followed MOLP techniques to determine the trade-offs between the two constructs of …
The Horizontal Extent Of Lightning Based On Altitude And Atmospheric Temperature, David R. Vollmer
The Horizontal Extent Of Lightning Based On Altitude And Atmospheric Temperature, David R. Vollmer
Theses and Dissertations
Due to multiple factors, including an increase in military operations tempo and the improved resolution of meteorological models, demand for access to customized aviation weather products has increased exponentially. This has given rise to a need for a multi-purpose interactive aviation weather product generation software solution. This software solution must be platform-independent, multiple data source access configurable, robust, extensible or upgradeable, user-friendly, and an improvement over current visualization applications used in the operational military aviation weather community. This thesis determines whether Unidata MetApps meets these criteria. A software reuse and component-based engineering approach was taken in this thesis. Two experimental …
Gps-Derived Precipitable Water Compared With The Air Force Weather Agency's Mm5 Model Output, Patricia A. Vollmer
Gps-Derived Precipitable Water Compared With The Air Force Weather Agency's Mm5 Model Output, Patricia A. Vollmer
Theses and Dissertations
Lightning poses a threat to aircraft in flight. To mitigate this threat, the U.S. Air Force requested a study of lightning distances. Three-Dimensional lightning data were examined for this study, spanning 1 March 1997 to 31 May 2001 and obtained from the Lightning Detection and Ranging System (LDAR) at the Kennedy Space Center, FL. The LDAR data points were first grouped into lightning flashes and branches using spatial and temporal criteria. Rawinsonde data were vertically interpolated to determine the temperature at the flash source point and each branch end point. The horizontal distance from flash sources to branch end was …
Suitability Of Unidata Metapps For Incorporation In Platform-Independent User-Customized Aviation Weather Products Generation Software, Harmen P. Visser
Suitability Of Unidata Metapps For Incorporation In Platform-Independent User-Customized Aviation Weather Products Generation Software, Harmen P. Visser
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Combat Climatology Center (AFCCC) is tasked to provide long-range seasonal forecasts for worldwide locations. Currently, the best long-range temperature forecasts the weather community has are the climatological standard normals. This study creates a stepping-stone into the solution of long-range forecasting by finding a process to predict temperatures better than those using climatological standard normals or simple frequency distributions of occurrences. Northern Hemispheric teleconnection indices and the standardized Southern Oscillation index are statistically compared to three-month summed Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) at 14 U.S. locations. First, linear regression was accomplished. The results showed …
Verification Of Mm5 Cloud Microphysics Schemes For East Asia, Dean J. Carter
Verification Of Mm5 Cloud Microphysics Schemes For East Asia, Dean J. Carter
Theses and Dissertations
Using the 3-Dimensional Variational Analysis data assimilation scheme and the (MM5), input observations were denied in three different categories: total, upper air, and surface observation denial. Two control groups were run using all available data as received by AFWA. The main control group used a 6 hours old first guess as a baseline. The data denied test cases and the secondary control group used a 30-hour old first guess because it was not possible to deny data from the first guess. The secondary control group was used to estimate errors resulting from the use of different first guess forecasts between …
Synthesis Of 3-Dimensional Lightning Data And Weather Radar Data To Determine The Distance That Naturally Occurring Lightning Travels From Thunderstorms, Lee A. Nelson
Theses and Dissertations
Military base weather stations are required to issue lightning warnings to protect military equipment and personnel. The issuance of warnings is based on a 5 nautical mile (n mi) distance criterion. This criterion appears to have evolved over time as a balance between safety and mission impact. The goal of this thesis is to challenge the 5 n mi lightning warning criteria by quantifying the distance that CG lightning travels. A secondary goal is to examine the characteristics of the peak current of CG lightning strokes to determine if a relationship exists between peak current, the distance a stroke travels, …
Verification And Comparison Of Polar Mm5 And Afwa Mm5 Forecasts Over Alaska, William E. Courtemanche
Verification And Comparison Of Polar Mm5 And Afwa Mm5 Forecasts Over Alaska, William E. Courtemanche
Theses and Dissertations
This research compares biases of the Reisner Mixed-Phase Explicit Moisture Microphysics graupel and non-granpel schemes to determine if including graupel and riming processes within the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) will lead to improved forecasts of winter precipitation for Korea and Japan. MM5 forecasts were generated every 12 hours for a 20 days case period from January 1998. Model derived meteorological fields were interpolated to the station coordinates of four verification sites within the East Asian domain and radiosonde observations were used to compare the differences between the average temperature and water vapor errors of the two cloud microphysics schemes. …
Estimation Of Atmospheric Precipitable Water Using The Global Positioning System, David A. Garay
Estimation Of Atmospheric Precipitable Water Using The Global Positioning System, David A. Garay
Theses and Dissertations
This research focuses on using the Global Positioning System (GPS) for atmospheric precipitable water (PW) estimation. Water vapor, measured in terms of PW, plays a crucial role in atmospheric processes and short-term weather forecasting. Traditional methodologies for measuring atmospheric water vapor distributions have known inadequacies, resulting in the motivation to gain good water vapor characterization via GPS. The ability to accurately forecast cloud formation and other weather phenomenon is critical, especially in the case of military operations. Using a network of GPS receivers, it is possible to estimate precipitable water throughout the network region with better accuracy than traditional methods …
Designing An Algorithm To Predict The Intensity Of The Severe Weather Season, Hugh J. Freestrom
Designing An Algorithm To Predict The Intensity Of The Severe Weather Season, Hugh J. Freestrom
Theses and Dissertations
The Mesoscale Model 5th Generation (MM5) is used for operational support to Air Force missions in the Alaskan Theater. The 11th Operational Weather squadron has identified problems with the MM5 producing excessively warm surface temperatures. The Polar MM5 (PMM5), developed by the Byrd Polar Research Center for high latitude ice sheets, is tested over the Alaskan domains used by the Air Force Weather Agency to determine the utility in replacing the MM5 with the PMM5. The verification of surface temperature, pressure and wind as well as upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and relative humidity of 27-hour PMM5 forecasts are compared to …
Application Of The Wind Gust Estimate And Comparison To The Afwa Mm5 Wind Gust Algorithm, Kevin W. Lacroix
Application Of The Wind Gust Estimate And Comparison To The Afwa Mm5 Wind Gust Algorithm, Kevin W. Lacroix
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) runs the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) as their main mesoscale weather forecast model. One of the post-processing procedures is a diagnostic algorithm, which is used to help identify convective and non-convective wind gusts. O. Brassuer has identified a new Wind Gust Estimate (WGE), as a physically based method of computing non-convective wind gusts. The WGE surmises that Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) transfers the momentum of faster upper-air winds to the surface, overcoming the buoyant energy of the surface layer. This work converts Brassuer's WGE to FORTRAN code and utilizing post-processed CONUS AFWA …
Exploration Of Teleconnection Indices For Long-Range Seasonal Temperature Forecasts, Robb M. Randall
Exploration Of Teleconnection Indices For Long-Range Seasonal Temperature Forecasts, Robb M. Randall
Theses and Dissertations
The goal of this research was to examine the possibility of establishing guidance for lightning avoidance and lightning warning criteria based upon lightning radar reflectivity signatures. Determining how far naturally occurring lightning normally travels from thunderstorms can provide insight to decision makers concerning in-flight and ground safety measures. 3D lightning data are merged with archived weather radar data. To analyze the radar characteristics of the lightning data, radar data are interpolated to a 3D grid of reflectivity. Lightning flashes were analyzed to resolve the reflectivity of the flash origin and to determine the distance of the flash origin from the …
The Horizontal Extent Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Over The Kennedy Space Center, Todd M. Mcnamara
The Horizontal Extent Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Over The Kennedy Space Center, Todd M. Mcnamara
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) runs the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) as their main mesoscale weather forecast model. One of the post-processing procedures is a diagnostic algorithm, which is used to help identify convective and non-convective wind gusts. O. Brassuer has identified a new Wind Gust Estimate (WGE), as a physically based method of computing non-convective wind gusts. The WGE surmises that Turbulent Kinetic Energy (TKE) transfers the momentum of faster upper-air winds to the surface, overcoming the buoyant energy of the surface layer. This work converts Brassuer's WGE to FORTRAN code and utilizing post-processed CONUS AFWA …
Evolution Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Discharges In Tornadic Thunderstorms, Wendy L. Seaman
Evolution Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Discharges In Tornadic Thunderstorms, Wendy L. Seaman
Theses and Dissertations
Air Force operations are directly impacted by weather on a daily basis. Erroneous forecasts negatively impact mission readiness and consequently cost the government time, in terms of wasted man-hours, and money. Advanced forecast lead-time could make a difference to minimize loss to both USAF personnel and assets. This study examined lightning data from 64 storm events from 1995-2000 in search of unique lightning signatures indicative of tornadic activity. Overall flash rates, percentage of positive flashes, positive and negative peak currents and multiplicity for each case were separated into two categories based on tornado intensity and season of occurrence. Based on …
Validation And Assessment Of Dmsp Electron Temperatures In The Topside Ionosphere, Bradford S. Green
Validation And Assessment Of Dmsp Electron Temperatures In The Topside Ionosphere, Bradford S. Green
Theses and Dissertations
Geomagnetic disturbances in the near earth space environment can adversely affect numerous military and Department of Defense (DoD) systems and operations. To improve the prediction accuracy of such disturbances, the next generation of space environment forecast models aims to automatically ingest real-time ionospheric measurements. This research validates and assesses one such measurement - the Defense Military Satellite Program (DMSP) measured electron temperature (Te). DMSP Te data were validated against near simultaneous incoherent scatter radar (ISR) Te measurements from Millstone Hill, MA and Sondrestrom, Greenland between Winter 1996 and Summer 2000. Of the 37 Millstone and six …
Analysis Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Clusters With Radar Composite Imagery, Rhonda B. Scott
Analysis Of Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Clusters With Radar Composite Imagery, Rhonda B. Scott
Theses and Dissertations
The most recent research conducted at the Air Force Institute of Technology involved studying a large volume of lightning data without coupling radar imagery (Parsons 2000). Parsons finding could not be acted on because no individual storms were studied. The primary goal of this research is to determine whether the techniques used by Parsons can be applied to storms by examining the radar imagery and lightning data. This research used the methodology applied to lightning data by Parsons and radar imagery to determine whether the location of lightning clusters were located near storms. A composite reflectivity radar image was generated …
Analyzing The Effects Of Meteorology On Radar Measured Index Of Refraction Structure Parameter, Jeffrey W. Budai
Analyzing The Effects Of Meteorology On Radar Measured Index Of Refraction Structure Parameter, Jeffrey W. Budai
Theses and Dissertations
Forecasting optical turbulence is essential for the Air Force's Airborne Laser program to optimize placement of aircraft. To find bow meteorology affects Cn2, the intensity of turbulence in the index of refraction, case studies of synoptically interesting times are first chosen. Correlation coefficients are then computed between radar measured Cn2 and meteorological quantities. The potential for mechanically turbulent activity is looked at. In the analysis of this work, six meteorological features were found likely to affect Cn2. Two features associated with affecting potential refractivity, and thus Cn2, are jets …
Development Of Predictors For Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Activity Using Atmospheric Stability Indices, Kenneth C. Venzke
Development Of Predictors For Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Activity Using Atmospheric Stability Indices, Kenneth C. Venzke
Theses and Dissertations
A detailed examination was performed on several commonly applied atmospheric stability indices and lightning activity from 1993 to 2000 to determine the indices usefulness as predictive tools for determining cloud-to-ground lightning activity. Predetermined radii of 50 nautical miles around upper-air stations in the Midwest U.S. were used for the lightning summaries. Also explored is an improvement upon the commonly accepted thresholds of the stability indices as general thunderstorm indicators. An improvement was found and new threshold ranges were developed for relating stability index values to lightning occurrence. Traditional statistical regression methods failed to find a significant predictive relationship. By examining …
Mixed Layer Height Estimates – A Statistical Analysis Of Algorithm Performance, Lisa C. Shoemaker
Mixed Layer Height Estimates – A Statistical Analysis Of Algorithm Performance, Lisa C. Shoemaker
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) conducts dispersion transport modeling as part of their mission support for the United States Atomic Energy Detection System. Part of that modeling effort requires knowledge of the height of the mixed layer in the lower atmosphere to determine the vertical extent through which particulates can be distributed. The mixed layer can be estimated by analyzing atmospheric profiles of parameters obtained from observations (e.g., upper air soundings) or atmospheric models. Six mixed layer algorithms were evaluated: Gradient Richardson Number (RICH), Potential Temperature (POTEMP), Potential Instability Mixing Depth (PIMIX), and three variations of the PIMIX …
An Analysis In Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Over Land Versus Water, Elizabeth A. Boll
An Analysis In Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Over Land Versus Water, Elizabeth A. Boll
Theses and Dissertations
Understanding lightning characteristics over land and water is vital to achieving optimal safety and success in Air Force missions. Lightning safety rules are often based on experience rather than a scientific understanding of lightning. Examining lightning characteristics over water and land will assist in a better understanding of lightning and provide answers that can protect human lives and property. Water and land have different compositions and surface conductivity values. A lightning stroke is detected through a change in the electro-magnetic field at the surface. The change in surface conductivity values from land to water can affect the detection of a …
An Evaluation Of Microburst Prediction Indices For The Kennedy Space Center And Cape Canaveral Air Station (Ksc/Ccas), Steven N. Dickerson
An Evaluation Of Microburst Prediction Indices For The Kennedy Space Center And Cape Canaveral Air Station (Ksc/Ccas), Steven N. Dickerson
Theses and Dissertations
A wet-microburst event on 16 August 1994 at the Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility alerted forecasters from the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS), the provider of weather support to the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), to the challenges of wet-microburst prediction. Although there was no operational impact, this event caused the 45WS to revise their severe thunderstorm forecasting procedures to specifically address microbursts, resulting in the locally developed Microburst-Day Potential Index (MDPI). MDPI provides a several-hour outlook of microburst potential based on the results of the Microburst and Severe Thunderstorm (MIST) project. The 45WS also …