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Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman
Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman
Theses and Dissertations
In this thesis, a class of time series models for forecasting a hurricanes future position based on its previous positions and a generalized model of hurricane motion are examined and extended. Results of a literature review suggest that meteorological models continue to increase in complexity while few statistical approaches, such as linear regression, have been successfully applied. An exception is provided by a certain class of time series models that appear to forecast storms almost as well as current meteorological models without their tremendous complexity. A suggestion for enhancing the performance of these time series models is pursued through an …