Meteorology Commons^™

Methodology To Analyze Tropical Cyclone Intensity From Microwave Imagery, Matthew W. Perkins

Theses and Dissertations

Satellites with microwave remote sensing capabilities can be utilized to study atmospheric phenomena through high-level cloud cover (particularly cirrus), an advantage over visible and infrared bands, which only sense cloud tops. This unique capability makes microwave imagery ideal for studying the cloud structures of tropical cyclones (TCs) in detail, and relating these features to TC intensity. Techniques to estimate the intensity of TCs using infrared imagery, such as the Dvorak technique, have been used in TC forecasting for 40 years. However, due to the inherent temporal limitations of microwave imagery, no such similar technique exists for the microwave spectrum. This …

Seasonal Influences Upon And Long-Term Trends In The Length Of The Atlantic Hurricane Season, Juliana Marie Karloski

Theses and Dissertations

Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons vary yearly in length with some seasons significantly shorter or longer than normal. Kossin (2008) suggested that from 1980 to 2007, the Atlantic TC season increased in length; however, their study only considered a subset of the Atlantic basin south of 30°N and east of 75°W. It is uncertain whether this trend holds over the entire Atlantic basin or continues into the present. It is also unclear as to whether meaningful sub-seasonal variability in the environmental factors necessary for TC formation exists between early- and late-starting and -ending seasons.

Quantile regression is used to evaluate …

Developing Prediction Regions For A Time Series Model For Hurricane Forecasting, William Cheman

Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, a class of time series models for forecasting a hurricanes future position based on its previous positions and a generalized model of hurricane motion are examined and extended. Results of a literature review suggest that meteorological models continue to increase in complexity while few statistical approaches, such as linear regression, have been successfully applied. An exception is provided by a certain class of time series models that appear to forecast storms almost as well as current meteorological models without their tremendous complexity. A suggestion for enhancing the performance of these time series models is pursued through an …