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Global Meteorological Drought – Part 1: Probabilistic Monitoring, Will Pozzi

Will Pozzi

Near-real-time drought monitoring can provide decision-makers with valuable information for use in se- veral areas, such as water resources management, or inter- national aid. One of the main constrains of assessing the current drought situation is associated with the lack of re- liable sources of observed precipitation on a global scale available in near-real time. Furthermore, monitoring sys- tems also need a long record of past observations to pro- vide mean climatological conditions. To address these prob- lems, a novel probabilistic drought monitoring methodology based on ECMWF probabilistic forecasts is presented, where probabilistic monthly means of precipitation were derived from …