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Full-Text Articles in Meteorology
Global Meteorological Drought – Part 1: Probabilistic Monitoring, Will Pozzi
Global Meteorological Drought – Part 1: Probabilistic Monitoring, Will Pozzi
Will Pozzi
Near-real-time drought monitoring can provide decision-makers with valuable information for use in se- veral areas, such as water resources management, or inter- national aid. One of the main constrains of assessing the current drought situation is associated with the lack of re- liable sources of observed precipitation on a global scale available in near-real time. Furthermore, monitoring sys- tems also need a long record of past observations to pro- vide mean climatological conditions. To address these prob- lems, a novel probabilistic drought monitoring methodology based on ECMWF probabilistic forecasts is presented, where probabilistic monthly means of precipitation were derived from …
Global Meteorological Drought – Part 2: Seasonal Forecasts, Will Pozzi
Global Meteorological Drought – Part 2: Seasonal Forecasts, Will Pozzi
Will Pozzi
Global seasonal forecasts of meteorological drought using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) are produced using two data sets as initial conditions: the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI); and two seasonal forecasts of precipitation, the most recent ECMWF seasonal forecast system and climatologically based ensemble forecasts. The forecast evaluation focuses on the periods where precipitation deficits are likely to have higher drought impacts, and the results were summarized over different regions in the world. The verification of the forecasts with lead time indicated that generally for all regions the …