Meteorology Commons^™

Umphlett Qci Sept 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Streamflow Conditions

Challenging Season for Bird Breeding

Mixed Impacts to Agriculture this Summer

Unprecedented Fish Kill on Yellowstone River

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Wind Climatology: A Study Of Trends On Rodgers' Dry Lakebed, Dana Coppernoll-Houston

STAR Program Research Presentations

A number of smaller projects at the Armstrong Flight Research Center fly on or close to the ground and are subject to ground-level winds. Many of these are new prototype models, such as PRANDTL-D (Preliminary Research Aerodynamic Design to Lower Drag). Waiting for the right conditions on a day of variable winds can sometimes mean that teams fail to complete testing. A strategic analysis of wind behavior at a locations where winds can vary greatly due to terrain could lend insight into the best times to test for near-ground aircraft. The purpose of this project was to data mine historical …

Elevation Data And Mapping Updates, Doug Marcy

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Noaa Inundation Dashboard, Audra Luscher, Paul Fanelli

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Agenda, Hr Adaptation Forum

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

Total Water Level And Wave Run Up Forecast, Eric Seymour

July 29, 2016: The Latest in Sea Level Rise Science

No abstract provided.

The Influence Of Model Resolution On The Simulated Sensitivity Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity To Sea Surface Temperature, Sarah Strazzo, James Elsner, Timothy Larow, Hiroyuki Murakami, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Drougthscape, Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC adds two employees

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability

Create a custom DIR view

Drought center co-leads MENA region project

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires

Variations In Satellite Derived Sea Ice And Snow Coverage In The Arctic, Haylie N. Mikulak

UCARE: Research Products

The work is an investigation on the variations of satellite derived sea ice and snow cover extents in the Arctic region from 1979-2012. The NASA Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) Hemisphere Snow and Ice Earth System Data Record is examined in order to find variations of Northern Hemispheric sea ice and snow cover extents and impacts each extent may have not only on one another as well as the changing atmospheric conditions over the study period. Extent patterns and extreme circumstances defined by this study are identified in order for future studies to examine …

Umphlett Qci June 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Limited Frost Damage to Crops this Spring

Wet Conditions Cause Mixed Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Droughtscape, Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s report

First quarter drought summary

First quarter drought impacts

Drought Risk Management Research Center

Kenyan official visits

DrIVER eyes forecasting

Drought scenario exercise

Student projects

Drought tournament

Response and recovery guide

Drought Portal

Network of drought observers

Caribbean “writeshops”

Communications staff grows

Seagrass Community Change At Three High Risk Ports In The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area From 2005 To 2014, Celeste Venolia

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Seagrass meadows are extremely valuable and dynamic ecosystems currently facing pressure from anthropogenic disturbances. Seagrass ecosystems are declining globally because of direct and indirect threats that shift environmental conditions controlling seagrass distribution. Seagrass species responses to disturbances vary based on a number of factors including life history strategy. The goal of this study was to map and analyze patterns of dominant seagrass species change at Cairns and Gladstone from 2005-2014 and Townsville from 2007-2014. This compilation data set was symbolized according to the life history strategy of the species. The major disturbances during this time period were physical damage from …

How Can Agroforestry Help Landowners Adapt To Increased Rain Intensity?

Working Trees (USDA-NAC)

Agroforestry practices can help landowners adapt to increased rain intensity.

Umphlett Qci March 2016, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Vegetation Conditions

Early Signs of Spring

Winter Wheat Breaks Dormancy

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Percent of Average Precipitation: Strong El Niños

Climate-Relevant Land Use And Land Cover Change Policies, Rezaul Mahmood, Roger A. Pielke Sr., Clive Mcalpine

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Both observational and modeling studies clearly demonstrate that land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) play an important biogeophysical and biogeochemical role in the climate system from the landscape to regional and even continental scales. Without comprehensively considering these impacts, an adequate response to the threats posed by human intervention into the climate system will not be adequate. Public policy plays an important role in shaping local- to national-scale land-use practices. An array of national policies has been developed to influence the nature and spatial extent of LULCC. Observational evidence suggests that these policies, in addition to international trade treaties and protocols, …

Support For Drought Response And Community Preparedness: Filling The Gaps Between Plans And Action, Kelly Helm Smith, Crystal J. Stiles, Michael Hayes, Christopher Carparelli

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

This chapter examines which levels of government handle various aspects of drought, as well as interactions between levels of government, providing examples from states across the western United States. It also takes a look at aspects of drought that fall outside traditional lines of authority and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a discussion on how states support local drought response, the chapter details and contrasts how California and Colorado track public water supply restrictions, and describes Colorado’s process for incorporating input from river basins across the state into its water plan. Case studies focus on drought planning in the Klamath …

Impact Of Climate Variations On Soybean Yield In Eastern Arkansas: 1960-2014, J. W. Magugu, S. Feng, Q. Huang, K. Luthra

Journal of the Arkansas Academy of Science

Climate is the major factor affecting crop production; therefore, various agro-meteorological indicators have been frequently used to evaluate the impact of climate on crop production. In this study, we examined the temporal variations of agrometeorological indicators (growing degree days, total precipitation, dry spells and drought indices) during 1960-2014 and their impact on soybean yields in East Arkansas. Results show an increasing trend in growing degree days (GDDs) and dry spells, though the total precipitation during the soybean growing season remained nearly unchanged during the study period. Generally, GDDs and dry spells show a strong correlation with yields. We also evaluated …

Droughtscape, Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

California drought FAQ

October-December 2015 drought

October-December 2015 impacts

2015 drought impacts in review

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst

CA drought exposes social vulnerability

UA helps Arizona ranchers, Forest Service work together

NDMC and partners help southern Plains ranchers manage drought

Chickasaw ranching workshop

Regional Variations Of Optimal Sowing Dates Of Maize For The Southwestern U.S., Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Sowing date (SD) is sensitive to regional climate characteristics; thus, it is critical to systematically examine the effects of SD on crop yields for various temperature regimes. We performed a sensitivity study of SD for maize in the southwestern U.S. using the regionally extended version of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) model. The model was run utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis at a 32 km resolution from 1991 to 2011, with an irrigation threshold at 95% of the soil water-holding capacity. Two types of SD optimizations maximizing yield potential (Yp), varying spatially or interannually, revealed that the optimal SD …

Three-Dimensional Wind Speed And Flux Measurements Over A Rain-Fed Soybean Field Using Orthogonal And Non-Orthogonal Sonic Anemometer Designs, Taylor Thomas

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The eddy covariance method for estimating fluxes of trace gases, energy and momentum in the constant flux layer above a plant canopy fundamentally relies on accurate measurements of the vertical wind speed. This wind speed is typically measured using a three-dimensional ultrasonic anemometer. Previous studies comparing anemometers with orthogonal transducer sets to those with non-orthogonal transducer sets suggest differences in measured 3D wind speed components, particularly for a vertical component. These differences, attributed to additional flow distortion caused by the non-orthogonal transducer arrangement and support structure, directly affect fluxes of trace gases, energy and momentum. A field experiment was conducted …

Umphlett Qci 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Late Hard Freeze

Late Freezes Extended Growing Season

Warm Fall Delays Bird Migrations

Monitoring Water Resources Across the Basin

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Coast-To-Interior Gradient In Recent Northwest Greenland Precipitation Trends (1952–2012), G J. Wong, E C. Osterberg, R L. Hawley, Z R. Courville, D G. Ferris, J A. Howley

Dartmouth Scholarship

The spatial and temporal variability of precipitation on the Greenland ice sheet is an essential component of surface mass balance, which has been declining in recent years with rising temperatures. We present an analysis of precipitation trends in northwest (NW) Greenland (1952–2012) using instrumental (coastal meteorological station) and proxy records (snow pits and ice cores) to characterize the precipitation gradient from the coast to the ice sheet interior. Snow-pit-derived precipitation near the coast (1950–2000) has increased (~7% decade⁻¹, p < 0.01) whereas there is no significant change observed in interior snow pits. This trend holds for 1981–2012, where calculated precipitation changes decrease in magnitude with increasing distance from the coast: 13% decade⁻¹ (2.4 mm water equivalent (w.e.) decade⁻²) at coastal Thule air base (AB), 8.6% decade⁻¹ (4.7 …

Droughtscape, Fall 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column.

NDMC 20th anniversary 2

Employment opportunity

Third quarter 2015 climate summary

Third quarter 2015 impacts summary

Workshop in Ethiopia

San Antonio multi-hazard tournament

Healthy soil is drought buffer

U2U Award

Cost-benefit analysis for utilities managing drought

NDMC helps with rural poll questions on climate

Introducing our post-docs

South Korean visitors

Umphlett Qci Sept 2015, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalie

Streamflow

Heavy Rains Continued

Positive and Negative Impacts to Agriculture

Persistent Smoke from Wildfires

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Global Projections Of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity For The Late Twenty-First Century From Dynamical Downscaling Of Cmip5/Rcp4.5 Scenarios, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Ming Zhao, Robert E. Tuleya, Morris Bender, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Gabriele Villarini, Daniel Chavas

CCPO Publications

Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity are derived from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM; 50-km grid) and the GFDL hurricane model using a two-stage downscaling procedure. First, tropical cyclone genesis is simulated globally using HiRAM. Each storm is then downscaled into the GFDL hurricane model, with horizontal grid spacing near the storm of 6 km, including ocean coupling (e.g., "cold wake" generation). Simulations are performed using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) (1980-2008) for a "control run" with 20 repeating seasonal cycles and for a late-twenty-first-century projection using an altered SST seasonal cycle obtained …

Communicating Coastal Flood Risk & Impacts, Jeff Orrock

July 24, 2015: Communicating Frequent Flooding

No abstract provided.

Comparisons Of Cirrus Cloud Properties Between Polluted And Pristine Air Based On In-Situ Observations From The Nasa Attrex, Nsf Hippo And Eu Inca Campaigns, Minghui Diao, Jorgen Jensen

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

Cirrus clouds, covering about 30% of the Earth’s surface area, play an important role in the climate and weather systems. Cirrus cloud radiative forcing (cooling or warming) is influenced by their microphysical (e.g., ice crystal number concentration and size distribution) and macroscopic (e.g., spatial extent) properties. Currently it is still unclear how the formation of cirrus clouds and their microphysical properties are influenced by anthropogenic emissions. In this work, we use in-situ observations from three flight campaigns to compare the cirrus cloud properties between polluted and pristine regions. Our dataset includes: (1) the NASA Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) campaign …

Droughtscape, Summer 2015, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Director’s column

New Drought Risk Management Research Center

Second quarter 2015 climate summary

Second quarter 2015 impacts summary

Caribbean region an innovator in drought early warning

Wind River Reservation tribes move toward drought planning

Ranchers, U.S. Forest Service, University of Arizona co-develop drought plans

Summer blockbuster from CoCoRaHS: Assessing Drought in the U.S

Western states drought coordinators meet

Umphlett Qci June 2015, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Water Supplies Recovering

Heavy Rains Cause Flooding

Agriculture Impacts

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson

Publications

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from …