Meteorology Commons^™

Droughtscape- 2019 Winter, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.............. 2

Drought intensified in California and Nevada, eased elsewhere............. 3

Year in Review: Drought spread and intensified in the West; record precipitation in the East.............. 5

Drought impact summary for 4th quarter 2018........... 6

Drought impact summary 2018............ 8

Five states began drought plan updates in 2018................. 10

New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier............ 12

FEMA risk assessment process tailored for drought............... 14

Upcoming events...............14

The Total Solar Eclipse Of 2017: Meteorological Observations From A Statewide Mesonet And Atmospheric Profiling Systems, Rezaul Mahmood, Megan Schargorodski, Eric Rappin, Melissa Griffin, Patrick Collins, Kevin Knupp, Andrew Quilligan, Ryan Wade, Kevin Cary, Stuart Foster

HPRCC Personnel Publications

A total solar eclipse traversed 37 the continental United States on August 21, 2017. It 38 was the first such event in 99 years and provided a rare opportunity to observe the atmospheric response from a variety of instrumented observational platforms. This paper discusses the high quality observations collected by the Kentucky Mesonet (www.kymesonet.org), a research-grade meteorological and climatological observation network consisting of 72 stations and measuring air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind direction. The network samples the atmosphere, for most variables, every three seconds and then calculates and records observations every five minutes. During …

Irrigation Impacts On Minimum And Maximum Surface Moist Enthalpy In The Central Great Plains Of The Usa, Tianyi Zhang, Rezaul Mahmood, Xiaomao Lin, Roger A. Pielke Sr.

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Agricultural activities notably alter weather and climate including near-surface heat content. However, past research primarily focused on dry bulb temperature without considering the role of water vapor (dew point temperature) on surface air heat content. When using dry bulb temperature trends to assess these changes, for example, not including concurrent trends in absolute humidity can lead to errors in the actual rate of warming or cooling. Here we examined minimum and maximum surface moist enthalpy, which can be expressed as “equivalent temperature.” Using hourly climate data in the Central Great Plains (Nebraska and Kansas) from 1990 to 2014, the averages …

Role Of Sea Surface Temperatures In Forcing Circulation Anomalies Driving U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Elinor R. Martin, Xiangming Xiao

HPRCC Personnel Publications

In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study usesERAtwentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2018, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Water Resources and Drought

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Droughtscape- 2018 Fall, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.............. 2

Drought greatly improves in Southern Plains and South............. 3

Texas, Missouri, and Colorado logged late-summer impacts.............. 5

Memory, remote sensing and a new research methodology............. 8

Navigating the U.S. Drought Monitor......... 9

Planners discuss the barriers to effective drought mitigation planning............ 12

Exploring climate issues from a county management perspective.............. 13

Strategic Framework for Drought Risk Management and Enhancing Resilience in Africa..................... 14

Mena global policy forum looks from data to mitigation............. 15

About us............17

State-by-state drought classification table developed by NDMC graduate student........19

Umphlett Qci Sept 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Droughtscape- 2018 Summer, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

From the director.......................... 2

Drought expands and intensifies ............ 3

Dry down fuels fires ..................... 5

Tweeting #drought18.................... 7

MOISST and NSMN..................... 8

Caribbean planning progress .............. 9

Drought observer network study........... 10

MENA teams report progress ............. 12

NDMC global outreach............... 13

Climate hub workshop................ 15

On the horizon ........................... 16

Umphlett Qci June 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Precipitation Anomalies

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Droughtscape- 2018 Spring, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018......................................... 3

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast .......... 5

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas...................... 7

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa ....................... 8

NDMC on a global playing field................................ 10

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts ......................11

Svoboda named to UN advisory group ......................................... 12

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains ......................... 13

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara .......................... 15

Connecting locally for global change....................................... 16

Primary Atmospheric Drivers Of Pluvial Years In The United States Great Plains, Paul Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Xiangming Xiao

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies …

Umphlett Qci March 2018, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Enhanced Fire Activity During Winter

Utilities Impacted by Extreme Cold

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Winter Drought Conditions and Outlook

Evaluation Of Nocturnal Convective Precipitation Over The Great Plains Using Reanalysis Data And A Wrf-Based Regional Climate Model, Xu Deng

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study aims to analyze what processes are mainly responsible for nocturnal convective precipitation during the 1991-2000 period for May-June-July over the Great Plains. Firstly, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis data, the simulations of the diurnal cycles of LLJ and the convective precipitation are examined. Then, the LLJ-related moisture transport is evaluated since the moisture supply is critical for the development of the heavy rainfall. Results show that the WRF model fails to simulate the nocturnal peak rainfall shown in …

Drought Information Services For U.S. Agriculture, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Enhancing U.S. Drought Monitor Services & Products

The USDM's weekly display of drought conditions is an important drought early-warning tool for agricultural producers and USDA professionals. Stakeholders that now rely on the USDM include:

• National policymakers who use the USDM as a measure for allocation of relief dollars;

• State governments that refer to the USDM to trigger drought response measures;

• Planners and researchers studying the effects of past droughts;

• Media professionals and educators looking for graphic representation of complex climate interactions.

Drought And Land-Cover Conditions In The Great Plains, Heather Tollerud, Jesslyn Brown, Thomas Loveland, Rezaul Mahmood, Norman Bliss

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in the Earth system, and a better understanding of these interactions could improve weather and climate models. The interaction among drought, vegetation productivity, and land cover is of particular significance. In a semiarid environment, such as the U.S. Great Plains, droughts can have a large influence on the productivity of agriculture and grasslands, with serious environmental and economic impacts. Here, we used the vegetation drought response index (VegDRI) drought indicator to investigate the response of vegetation to weather and climate for landcover types in the Great Plains in the United States from 1989 to …

Droughtscape- Winter 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Year in review: Drought eased in California, developed in Northern Plains......... 2

Quarterly Summary: Drought creeps across the country.............. 3

Annual impact summary: A year of wildfires.......... 4

Quarterly impact summary: Drought expands in Texas, Colorado............ 6

Drought and water crisis book updated............... 8

U.S. Drought Monitor available in Spanish........... 9

Study shows cities step up when drought occurs............... 10

New staff at the NDMC............. 11

Drought Summit in photos.............. 12

2018 Ndmc Annual, Mark Svoboda, Kelly Smith, Deborah Bathke, Brian Fuchs, Cody L. Knutson, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Contents
01 From the director
02 Drought preparation toolkit tested in Nebraska available to all
03 Partnerships produce vulnerability assessments for tribes
04 Drought Monitor maps & stats localized for NWS offices
05 Producer workshops focus on latest drought management tools
06 2018 by the numbers
08 Where we were in 2018
10 New web-based form makes submitting drought observations easier
11 Five states began drought plan updates in 2018
12 Project brought drought management, monitoring skills to 4 countries
13 2018 Publication highlights
16 Collaboration
17 Team and partnerships

Umphlett Qci Dec 2017, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Drought Continues to Cause Impacts

Large Butterfly Migration Across the Plains

High Winds Down Corn Across Nebraska

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Droughtscape- Fall 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Drought worsens in northern Great Plains............. 2

Drought takes toll on ag, livestock................ 4

Study examines ag advisors’ views on climate change............... 5

New drought definition could lead to better preparation.............. 6

McCook takes big steps toward drought readiness.............8

Group hopes to map drought planning process for Korea............9

South African researcher working to forecast drought.................. 10

Cultivating drought preparedness in South Africa.............. 12

Umphlett Qci Sept 2017, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought

Wildfires Impact Montana and Beyond

Kansas City, MO Area Flooding

Numerous Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Droughtscape- Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean...............2

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter...........3

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter............. 4

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry.......... 6

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI........... 6

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management........... 8

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes............. 9

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa......... 11

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments........... 12

Mesonets: Mesoscale Weather And Climate Observations For The United States, Rezaul Mahmood, Ryan Boyles, Kevin Brinson, Christopher Fiebrich, Stuart Foster, Ken Hubbard, David Robinson, Jeff Andresen, Dan Leathers

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Mesoscale in situ meteorological observations are essential for better understanding and forecasting the weather and climate and to aid in decision-making by a myriad of stakeholder communities. They include, for example, state environmental and emergency management agencies, the commercial sector, media, agriculture, and the general public. Over the last three decades, a number of mesoscale weather and climate observation networks have become operational. These networks are known as mesonets. Most are operated by universities and receive different levels of funding. It is important to communicate the current status and critical roles the mesonets play. Most mesonets collect standard meteorological data …

Umphlett Qci June 2017, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Snowpack and Streamflow

Historic Flooding in Missouri

Spring Conditions Impact Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Droughtscape- Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability.......... 2

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps.......... 3

California pulls out of drought............. 4

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map............... 6

Drought center releases 2016 annual report.............. 7

Book chapter focuses on drought and health................ 8

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers...............9

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions.............. 10

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

International Flyer Final, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

The National Drought Mitigation Center faculty and staff have worked with national and international organizations and countries around the world, providing a variety of services. The map shows where the drought center has collaborated on research, facilitated drought planning, shared technical knowledge, or provided programmatic advice.

Quick Drought Response Index: A Short-Term Dryness Indicator, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

WHAT IS QUICKDRI?

WHY WAS IT DEVELOPED?

WHAT INFORMATION IS USED IN QUICKDRI?

QUICKDRI PRODUCTS

ON THE QUICKDRI SITE:

THROUGH THE USGS DROUGHT VIEWER:

APPLICATION EXAMPLES:

Droughtscape- Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency............. 2

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall............. 3

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter............. 4

2016: Year in review................. 6-8

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders.............. 9

Tech pass-off in Tunisia.............. 10

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships............ 11

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts........... 12

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought................. 12

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech................... 13

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …