Meteorology Commons^™

Evolution Of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections, Andra J. Garner, Jeremy L. Weiss, Adam Parris, Robert E. Kopp, Radley M. Horton, Jonathan T, Overpeck, Benjamin P. Horton

School of Earth & Environment Faculty Scholarship

The modern era of scientific global‐mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global‐mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections …