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Articles 1 - 5 of 5
Full-Text Articles in Atmospheric Sciences
Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia
Application Of A Hybrid Statistical–Dynamical System To Seasonal Prediction Of North American Temperature And Precipitation, Sarah Strazzo, Dan C. Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q. J. Wang, Emily Becker, Liweli Jia
Publications
Recent research demonstrates that dynamical models sometimes fail to represent observed teleconnection patterns associated with predictable modes of climate variability. As a result, model forecast skill may be reduced. We address this gap in skill through the application of a Bayesian postprocessing technique—the calibration, bridging, and merging (CBaM) method—which previously has been shown to improve probabilistic seasonal forecast skill over Australia. Calibration models developed from dynamical model reforecasts and observations are employed to statistically correct dynamical model forecasts. Bridging models use dynamical model forecasts of relevant climate modes (e.g., ENSO) as predictors of remote temperature and precipitation. Bridging and calibration …
Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson
Hurricanes And Climate The U.S. Clivar Working Group On Hurricanes, Kevin J.E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Anne Sophie Daloz, James Elsner, Kerry Emanuel, Michael Horn, Young-Kwon Lim, Malcom Roberts, Christina Patricola, Enrico Scoccimarro, Adam H. Sobel, Sarah Strazzo, Gabrielle Villarini, Michael Wehner, Ming Zhao, James P. Kossin, Tim Larow, Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Sigfried Schubert, Hui Wang, Julio Bacmeister, Ping Chang, Fabrice Chauvin, Christiane Jablonowski, Arun Kumar, Hiroyuki Murakami, Tomoaki Ose, Kevin A. Reed, Ramalingam Saravanan, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jefferey A. Jonas, Naomi Henderson
Publications
While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and to understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR). This work, combined with results from …
Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing
Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing
Publications
Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …
Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao
Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao
Publications
Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …
Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel
Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel
Publications
Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …