Atmospheric Sciences Commons^™

Precipitation Variability And Predictability Over The Arabian Peninsula, Central Southwest Asia, And Southern Africa, Matthew Francis Horan

Doctoral Dissertations

The Northern Hemisphere winter is the main rainy season for the Arabian Peninsula (AP), Central Southwest Asia (CSWA), and Southern Africa (SF), where precipitation predictability is limited or understudied. This dissertation research focuses on improving our understanding of these regions' wet-season precipitation characteristics and predictability.

First, I have identified the AP's key moisture sources through a Lagrangian back-trajectory algorithm. Mid-latitude land and water bodies, such as the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas, are the primary moisture sources in the northern region. Areas further south rely on moisture transport from the Western Indian Ocean and the African continent. A significant drying trend …

Hazardous Weather And Human Response In The Southeastern United States, Daniel Burow

Doctoral Dissertations

Effectively mitigating the human costs of future hazardous weather events requires examining meteorological threats, their long-term patterns, and human response to these events. The southeastern United States is a region that has both a high climatological risk and a high societal vulnerability to many different meteorological hazards. In this dissertation, I study hazardous weather and human response in the Southeast through three different lenses: identifying uniquely simultaneous hazards posed by tropical cyclones, assessing precipitation and synoptic weather patterns on hazardous weather days, and examining patterns in intended response to tornado watches. I find that simultaneous and collocated tornado and flash …

Conservation Agriculture As A Climate Change Mitigation Strategy In Zimbabwe, Deb O'Dell, Neal Eash, Bruce B. Hicks, Joel Oetting, Thomas J. Sauer, Dayton M. Lambert, Tarirai Muoni, Joanne Logan, James A. Zahn, John J. Goddard

Biosystems Engineering and Soil Science Publications and Other Works

There is a need to quantify agriculture’s potential to sequester carbon (C) to inform global approaches aimed at mitigating climate change effects. Many factors including climate, crop, soil management practices, and soil type can influence the contribution of agriculture to the global carbon cycle. The objective of this study was to investigate the C sequestration potential of conservation agriculture (CA) (defined by minimal soil disturbance, maintaining permanent soil cover, and crop rotations). This study used micrometeorological methods to measure carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux from several alternative CA practices in Harare, central Zimbabwe. Micrometeorological methods can detect differences in …

Analysis Of Hurricane Track Forecast Accuracy During The 2018 Season, Jonathan D. Unger

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

Hurricane track forecasting has become more accurate in recent years due to technological advances in modeling methods. However, due to the complex nature of the relationship between oceanic and atmospheric variables and hurricane tracks, noteworthy errors in track prediction, especially for predictions several days into the future, still remain. In this study, two different methods of forecasting hurricane tracks are compared. Using the four United States landfalling hurricanes of the 2018 season as a sample, the official forecast tracks published by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and hypothetical tracks based purely on climatology were mapped simultaneously with the preliminary best …

Analysis Of Hurricane Track Forecast Accuracy During The 2018 Season, Jonathan Unger

Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects

No abstract provided.

Convective Mode Climatology Of Tennessee Tornado Events And Effect On National Weather Service Warning Processes, Kelly Nicole Gassert

Masters Theses

Tennessee resides in the Southeastern United States, a region prone to violent tornadoes on a year-round basis. With one of the highest tornado fatality rates in the country, and a climatology that varies across the state, analysis of storms resulting in Tennessee tornadoes is necessary for improving forecasting techniques and decreasing loss of life. This study analyzed convective modes responsible for Tennessee tornadoes from 2003 to 2014 to determine an association with fatalities, seasonality, day and night, tornado magnitude, regionality, and multiple-tornado days. Chi-squared tests were conducted to determine if these patterns were significant. National Weather Service forecasters from the …

Measuring Carbon Dioxide (Co2) Flux Of Agricultural Practices In Sub-Saharan Africa, Debra Blumberg O'Dell

Masters Theses

Agriculture has an important role in addressing two of the world’s most pressing problems: meeting global food demand and mitigating climate change. If agriculture is not practiced sustainably it will fail to meet future food demand and likely intensify the pace of global climate change. There are some agricultural practices, such as Conservation Agriculture, that can produce food sustainably and have the potential to mitigate climate change. However it is not clear which agricultural practices contribute to climate mitigation and by how much. By measuring the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of specific agricultural practices, the ability of practices to sequester …

Evaluating Predictability In The Community Earth System Model In Response To The Eruption Of Mount Pinatubo, Abigail Laurel Gaddis

Doctoral Dissertations

A central goal of climate research is to determine the perceptible effects of climate change on humans; in other words, the regional and decadal scale effects of carbon dioxide forcing. Identifying the most pronounced and long-lasting responses of climate variables to forcing is important for decadal prediction since forcing terms are a source of predictability on those time scales. Powerful volcanic eruptions provide a transient forcing on the climate system, creating a test bed for climate models. In this study, the Mount Pinatubo eruption is simulated in the Community Earth System Model, CESM1.0, for three model configurations: fully coupled T85 …

Wind Regimes In Complex Terrain Of The Great Valley Of Eastern Tennessee, Kevin Ray Birdwell

Doctoral Dissertations

This research was designed to provide an understanding of physical wind mechanisms within the complex terrain of the Great Valley of Eastern Tennessee to assess the impacts of regional air flow with regard to synoptic and mesoscale weather changes, wind direction shifts, and air quality. Meteorological data from 2008–2009 were analyzed from 13 meteorological sites along with associated upper level data. Up to 15 ancillary sites were used for reference. Two-step complete linkage and K-means cluster analyses, synoptic weather studies, and ambient meteorological comparisons were performed to generate hourly wind classifications. These wind regimes revealed seasonal variations of underlying physical …

An Investigation Of Atmospheric Turbulence Probes With Ground Test Comparisons Of Probe Head Designs And Evaluation Of Suitability To Instrumented Aircraft, Charles F Lams

Masters Theses

A comparison of methods to determine the flow angle components of atmospheric velocity vectors is presented. The atmospheric turbulence probes used to measure behavior of the atmosphere use different methods to obtain this information and there is some confusion as to which method is best. Although the methods are all based upon potential flow theory, the details about how the atmospheric and flight parameters are measured makes a difference to the design of an atmospheric turbulence probe and carrier research aircraft. This paper presents the mathematical theory behind five methods of obtaining atmospheric flow angle measurements from a moving aircraft. …