Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Nonlinear Dynamics In Ecosystem Response To Climatic Change: Case Studies And Policy Implications, Virginia R. Burkett, Douglas A. Wilcox, Wilcox Stottlemyer, Wylie Barrow, Dan Fagre, Jill Baron, Jeff Price, Jennifer L. Nielsen, Craig D. Allen, David L. Peterson, Greg Ruggerone, Thomas Doyle

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of …

Crop Updates 2005 - Farming Systems, David Stephens, Nicola Telcik, Ross Kingwell, Wayne Pluske, Bill Bowden, Mike Collins, Frances Hoyle, D. V. Murphy, N. Milton, M. Osman, L. K. Abbott, W. R. Cookson, S. Darmawanto, Bill Crabtree, Geoff Anderson, Darren Kidson, Ross Brennan, Nick Drew, Craig Scanlan, Lisa Sherriff, Bob French, Reg Lunt, Jeff Russell, Angie Roe, Ian Maling, Matthew Adams, George Yan, Mohammad Hamza, Glen Riethmuller, Wal Anderson, Angela Loi, Phil Nichols, Clinton Revell, David Ferris, Phil Ward, Andrea Hills, Sally-Anne Penny, David Hall, Michael Robertson, Don Gaydon, Tress Walmsley, Caroline Peek, Megan Abrahams, Paul Raper, Richard O'Donnell, Trevor Lacey, Meredith Fairbanks, David Tennant, Cameron Weeks, Richard Quinlan, Alexandra Edward, Chris Carter, Doug Hamilton, Peter Tozer, Renaye Horne, Tracey Gianatti, Paul Carmody, Ian Foster, Michele John, Ross George, Imma Farré, Ian Kininmonth, Dennis Van Gool, Neil Coles, Bill Porter, Louise Barton, Richard Harper, Peter Ritson, Tony Beck, Chris Mitchell, Michael Hill, Fiona Barker-Reid, Will Gates, Ken Wilson, Rob Baigent, Ian Galbally, Mick Meyer, Ian Weeks, Traci Griffin, D. Rodriguez, M. Probust, M. Meyers, D. Chen, A. Bennett, W. Strong, R. Nussey, I Galbally, M. Howden

Crop Updates

This session covers forty four papers from different authors:

PLENARY

1. 2005 Outlook, David Stephens and Nicola Telcik, Department of Agriculture

FERTILITY AND NUTRITION

2. The effect of higher nitrogen fertiliser prices on rotation and fertiliser strategies in cropping systems, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture and University of Western Australia

3. Stubble management: The short and long term implications for crop nutrition and soil fertility, Wayne Pluske, Nutrient Management Systems and Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture

4. Stubble management: The pros and cons of different methods, Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture, Western Australia and Mike Collins, …

Variability Of Sea Ice Cover In The Chukchi Sea (Western Arctic Ocean) During The Holocene, Anne De Vernal, Claude Hillaire-Marcel, Dennis A. Darby

OES Faculty Publications

Dinocysts from cores collected in the Chukchi Sea from the shelf edge to the lower slope were used to reconstruct changes in sea surface conditions and sea ice cover using modern analogue techniques. Holocene sequences have been recovered in a down-slope core (B15: 2135 m, 75°44'N, sedimentation rate of ~1cm kyr-¹) and in a shelf core (P1: 201 m, 73°41'N, sedimentation rate of ~22 cm kyr^-1). The shelf record spanning about 8000 years suggests high-frequency centennial oscillations of sea surface conditions and a significant reduction of the sea ice at circa 6000 and 2500 calendar (cal) …

Circulation, Vol. 11, No. 3, Center For Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Robert E. Tuleya

CCPO Circulation

Fall 2004 issue of CCPO Circulation featuring article "Impact of CO(2)-induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation" by Robert E. Tuleya

A Nonparametric Method For Separating Photosynthesis And Respiration Components In Co2 Flux Measurements, Chuixiang Yi, Runze Li, Peter S. Backwin, Ankur Desai, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Sean P. Burns, Andrew A. Turnipseed, Steven C. Wofsy, J. William Munger, Kell Wilson, Russell K. Monson

Publications and Research

Future climate change is expected to affect ecosystem-atmosphere CO₂ exchange, particularly through the influence of temperature. To date, however, few studies have shown that differences in the response of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) to temperature among ecosystems can be explained by differences in the photosynthetic and respiratory processes that compose NEE. Using a new nonparametric statistical model, we analyzed data from four forest ecosystems. We observed that differences among forests in their ability to assimilate CO₂ as a function of temperature were attributable to consistent differences in the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration. This observation …

A Holocene Record Of Changing Arctic Ocean Ice Drift Analogous To The Effects Of The Arctic Oscillation, Dennis A. Darby, Jens F. Bischof

OES Faculty Publications

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) controls the configuration of the Transpolar Drift (TPD). If thicker ice from the Beaufort Gyre were exported, the volume of fresh water/sea ice in the Nordic seas would significantly increase, decreasing the formation of North Atlantic deep water. This would cool large parts of the Northern Hemisphere and affect global climate. Therefore, in order to understand how the global climate system functions, it is imperative to know how the TPD changed over the last millennium or more. The provenance of grains in a sediment core located near the confluence of the TPD and the Beaufort Gyre …

Correlation Between Atmospheric Co2 Concentration And Vegetation Greenness In North America: Co2 Fertilization Effect, C. Lim, Menas Kafatos, P. Megonigal

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The possibility that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are influencing plant growth in contemporary ecosystems has received little attention, and the studies that exist have been done on a small spatial scale. We correlated the monthly rate of relative change in normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI) from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data to the rate of change in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the natural vegetation growing season for evidence of a possible CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation development. The study addressed seasonal and annual patterns in spatially averaged NDVI for 3 different ecological regions in North America from 1982 …

Day 5. Friday, August 15, 2003: Rocky Mountain National Park, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center

Energy Field Tour 2003 (August 11-16)

1 page.

Contains references.

Agenda: Energy Field Tour 2003, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center

Energy Field Tour 2003 (August 11-16)

Congressional staff tour held August 11-16, 2003

Summary: Binder of assorted articles, maps, brochures and other materials prepared for participants of the tour

Contents:

MONDAY, AUGUST 11, 2003: BLUE SPRUCE PEAKER PLANT: University of Colorado Natural Resources Law Center : congressional staff tour of Blue Spruce Energy Center / Peggy Duxbury -- 'Power Struggle', National Journal, June 27, 2003 / Margaret Kritz -- 'Calpine's Blue Spruce Energy Center begins commercial operation', Calpine press release, April 17, 2003 -- NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LAB: NREL at a glance -- NREL technologies -- SHOSHONE HYDROELECTRIC PLANT: 'River District Board supports spring Shoshone call …

Slides: Final Panel Questions, Doug Kenney

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter and Moderator: Doug Kenney, Natural Resources Law Center

1 slide

Either/Or? Will Climate Change Force A Choice Between Salmon And Electricity In The Northwest?, John M. Volkman

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

12 pages and 16 slides

Includes bibliographical references

"John M. Volkman, Partner, Stoel Rives LLP, Portland, Oregon"

Slides: Managing Risks Associated With Climate-Related Water Supply Variability, Bonnie G. Colby

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie G. Colby, Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Arizona

5 page "Outline" and 38 slides

Slides: The Myth Of Certainty: Water, Law, And Climate, David H. Getches

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: David H. Getches, Raphael J. Moses Professor of Natural Resources Law, University of Colorado School of Law

16 slides

Slides: The Tribal Perspective, Carl "Bud" Ullman

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Carl "Bud" Ullman, Director, Water Adjudication Project, Klamath Tribes, Chiloquin, OR

17 slides

Climate Change And The Rio Grande: Throwing Gasoline On A Fire, Denise Fort

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

4 pages.

"Summary"

"Professor Denise Fort, University of New Mexico School of Law"

Improved Drought Planning For Arizona, Katharine Jacobs, Barbara Morehouse

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Barbara Morehouse

7 pages and 22 slides

Includes bibliographical references

"Katharine Jacobs is currently the Special Assistant for Policy and Planning, Arizona Department of Water Resources."

"Barbara Morehouse is Associate Research Scientist at the University of Arizona’s Institute for the Study of Planet Earth. She manages the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, which is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Global Programs."

Slides: Balancing Drought And Flood In The Pacific Northwest: The Challenge Of Climate Change, Doug Mcchesney

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

1 page "Abstract" and 36 slides

"Doug McChesney, Manager, Policy and Planning Section, Washington Department of Ecology"

Slides: California Water And Climate Change, Dan Cayan, Mike Dettinger

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

32 slides

"Dan Cayan (1,2) 1 Mike Dettinger (2,1) SIO 2 USGS 3"

Slides: Noaa’S Applied Research And Risa, Harvey Hill

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

Presenter: Harvey Hill, Program Manager, Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), Office of Global Programs

19 slides

The Long Time Scales Of Human-Caused Climate Warming: Further Challenges For The Global Policy Process, Jerry D. Mahlman

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

28 pages.

"Jerry D. Mahlman, Senior Research Fellow, National Center for Atmospheric Research"

"Presented at the Pew Center Workshop on The Timing of Climate Change Policies, The Westin Grand Hotel, Washington, DC, October 10-12, 2001"

"Cite As: Mahlman, J.D. 2001. The Long Time Scales of Human-Caused Climate Warming: Further Challenges for the Global Policy Process. Pew Center Workshop on the Timing of Climate Change Policies, October 10-12, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA."

Agenda: Water, Climate And Uncertainty: Implications For Western Water Law, Policy, And Management, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center, United States. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration, National Center For Atmospheric Research (U.S.), Western Water Assessment (Program), University Of Colorado Boulder. Cooperative Institute For Research In Environmental Sciences, Hydrosphere Resource Consultants, Colorado Foundation For Water Education, Bp North America

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

The swollen creeks of Boulder, Colorado provided a fitting backdrop for the “Water, Climate and Uncertainty” conference at the Natural Resources Law Center of the University of Colorado in June 2003. Recognizing the importance of providing a forum for discussions between water managers, lawyers, policy makers, and scientists, Doug Kenney, the conference's organizer, assumed the responsibility of master of ceremonies, providing thoughtful transitions between speakers and sessions while throwing some humor into the mix. Under his direction, luminaries in the fields of science, law and policy engaged a wide range of issues related to the future of water management.

The …

The Role Of Climate In Shaping Western Water Institutions, Gregory J. Hobbs Jr.

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

61 pages.

"Justice Greg Hobbs, June 11, 2003"

This preliminary paper was later published in Justice Gregory J. Hobbs, Jr., The Role of Climate in Shaping Western Water Institutions, 7 U. Denv. Water L. Rev. 1 (2003).

Conference Guidebook: Water, Climate And Uncertainty: An Introduction To The Issues, Language, Literature And The Conference Materials, Doug Kenney

Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13)

20 pages.

"Prepared as a Supplement to: Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management, Natural Resources Law Center, University of Colorado School of Law, June 11-13, 2003"

"Doug Kenney, Ph.D."

Includes bibliographical references

Contents:

Part I: What Are Climate Researchers Saying About Western Water? A Guide for Non-Scientists

Part II: What Should Climate Researchers Know About the Realm of Western Water Law, Policy and Management?

Part III: Where to Find Additional Information

Historical Changes In Mid-Water Stands Of Common Reed In The Winnebago Pool Lakes, Wisconsin, Anthony O. Gabriel, Leo R. Bodensteiner

All Faculty Scholarship for the College of the Sciences

Despite the tolerance of common reed grass to environmental extremes, mid-water stands in the Winnebago pool lakes of central Wisconsin appear to be diminishing. Formerly occupying shoreline locations, water level manipulations subsequent to dam construction beginning in the 1850's have isolated reed stands off shore. These stands have persisted but casual observations indicate that stand size has been declining. To address this perception we obtained an approximately decadal series of aerial photographs dating back to 1937 for four stands in Lake Poygan. Annual records were available for 1986–94. Using image analysis software, we determined shape and size metrics. Changes in …

Can Long-Term Variability In The Gulf Stream Transport Be Inferred From Sea Level?, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Recent studies by Sturges and collaborators suggest a simple, but powerful, technique to estimate climatic changes in the transport of the Gulf Stream from the difference between the oceanic sea level calculated with a simple wind-driven Rossby wave model and the observed coastal sea level. The hypothesis behind this technique is tested, using 40 years of data (1950 to 1989) obtained from a three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean model forced by observed surface data. The analysis shows that variations in sea level difference between the ocean and the coast are indeed coherent with variations of the Gulf Stream transport for periods shorter …

Growth In Colorado And The West: Trends And Issues [Outline], James N. Corbridge Jr.

Water and Growth in the West (Summer Conference, June 7-9)

4 pages.

Contains references.

A Process Model Of Risk Communication: The Case Of Global Climate Change, Fiona Clark, Keith R. Stamm, Paula Reynolds Eblacas

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The authors describe a survey of public media use as it relates to different stages of awareness and concern regarding risk issues.

On The Interpentadal Variability Of The North Atlantic Ocean: Model Simulated Changes In Transport, Meridional Heat Flux And Coastal Sea Level Between 1955-1959 And 1970-1974, Tal Ezer, George L. Mellor, Richard J. Greatbatch

CCPO Publications

Previous studies by Greatbatch et al. (1991) indicate significant changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline structure and circulation between the pentads 1955–1959 and 1970–1974, using data analyzed by Levitus (1989a,b,c) and a simple diagnostic model by Mellor et al. (1982). In this paper these changes are modeled using a three-dimensional, free surface, coastal ocean model. Diagnostic and short-term prognostic calculations are used to infer the dynamically adjusted fields corresponding to the observed hydrographic and wind stress climatology of each pentad. While the results agree with earlier studies indicating that the Gulf Stream was considerably weaker (by about 30 Sv) during …

To The U.S. Department Of Transportation: Comments Of The Environmental Defense Fund On The Secretary Of Transportation’S National Transportation Policy, Robert E. Yuhnke

Air Quality Protection in the West (November 27-28)

20 pages.