Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Stormtrack: A Regime-Aware Classifier-Router Architecture For Multi-Horizon Kp Index Forecasting, John Rendleman

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

STORMTRACK: A Regime-Aware Classifier-Router Architecture for Multi-Horizon Kp Index Forecasting Current algorithms in operational space weather face extreme difficultly predicting the Kp geomagnetic index beyond 24 hours, a lead time that is critical for protecting high-frequency communications and infrastructure. Most regression models are optimized for quiet conditions, which dominate the data, leading to systematic underpredictions of storm events that cripple space infrastructure. Probabilistic approaches and physics-based numerical models also falter due to the same class imbalance plaguing standard regressors at multi-day lead times. The ICARUS 6 architecture addresses this by splitting the forecasting component into quiet and storm regimes, which …

Modeling Seiche Oscillations Using Damped Vibration Differential Equations, Bianca Gerity, Arineh Shahbazi

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

A seiche oscillation is a standing wave that oscillates in an enclosed body of water, like a lake or pool. Seiches are caused by strong winds, earthquakes, and rapid atmospheric changes. Seiches are an excellent real-world example of damped harmonic motion. The physics of these unique vibrations can actually be modeled using a second-order differential equation for damped oscillators of the general form mx''+cx'+kx=0, where m represents the mass of the vibrating water column, c represents the energy dissipation due to friction and viscosity, and k represents the force governed by gravity and the basin's geometry. The objective of this …

An Atmospheric Optical Turbulence Structure Parameter Measurements System Based On Direct Ri Sensing Using High-Resolution Fiber-Optic Sensors, Matej Njegovec, Simon Pevec, Vedran Budinski, Boris Macuh, Melissa K. Beason, Denis Onlagic

Faculty Publications

The paper presents a method to characterize the refractive index structure parameter (C_n²) associated with optical turbulence directly. The characterization system is based on miniature, high‑resolution, all‑fiber refractive index (RI) sensors. The refractive index sensors employ open‑path, low‑finesse Fabry–Perot interferometers that are approximately 8 mm long and 200 μm in diameter. The active part of the interferometers is made of ultra‑low‑expansion glass, which eliminates the influence of thermal expansion on the refractive index measurements. The proposed refractive index sensor, operating in a differential configuration, achieved a resolution of 2×10^-9 RIU using a custom‑designed spectral interrogation system …

Effective Visibility In The Infrared Bands, Peter L. Dean-Erlander, Steven T. Fiorino, Ronald G. Driggers

Faculty Publications

Visibility is an atmospheric metric for the comparison of terrestrial imaging conditions and locations. A limitation of visibility is that it is defined for the visible spectrum only, and there is no simple infrared equivalent. This study compares three reflective infrared wavebands: near-IR (NIR), shortwave IR (SWIR), and extended shortwave IR (eSWIR), to the visible band across a global set of cities to develop three rule-of-thumb functions for IR effective visibility. To accomplish this, a radiometric sensor model is combined with the Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR) software package to calculate the visibility of a black-and-white contrast target …

2026 August 6 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Modeling Formation Of Turbulent Sporadic-E Clouds Using Realistic Wind Data, Aaron M. Schinder, Kenneth S. Obenberger, Jorge L. Chau, Juan M. Urco, Matthias Clahsen, Benjamin F. Akers, Daniel J. Emmons

Faculty Publications

A high resolution two-dimensional multi-fluid model of sporadic-E layers was developed and driven with physically realistic mesosphere, lower thermosphere (MLT) winds measured over Albuquerque, New Mexico. The realistic E-region winds are produced by the HYdrodynamic Point-wise Environment Reconstructor (HYPER) model that ingests meteor derived wind observations from a Spread-spectrum Interferometric Multistatic meteor radar Observing Network (SIMONe) system combined with the Navier-Stokes equations to provide high resolution three-dimensional wind fields over time. Sporadic-E dynamics are simulated using both realistic winds from HYPER as well as idealized hyperbolic tangent windshears to compare and contrast. Overall, the model shows greater inhomogeneity and irregularity …

Ground To Roof Snow Load Ratio (Gr) Data Release, Brennan Bean, Cooper Nelson, Jesse Wheeler, Scout Jarman, Salam Adil Al-Rubaye, Marc Maguire

Browse all Datasets

This data release provides historical ground-to-roof snow load ratio (GR) datasets used for snow load research and model development. The release includes original referenced datasets, cleaned country specific datasets, and a master dataset that combines Canadian and United States datasets into a standardized format for research and engineering applications.

Changes In Water Quality And Microbiota Over Two Years In Florida Hard Clam (Mercenaria Mercenaria) Hatcheries, Bonnie Getter

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis characterized the water quality and bacterial communities in nine hard clam hatcheries over two production years through weekly or biweekly water quality and chemistry monitoring, monthly bacterial plating in the second year of production, and select 16S microbiome sampling at select hatcheries to address production bottlenecks and support the reliable production of high-quality seed for Florida’s growing hard clam aquaculture industry. Logistic regression models showed that water source was distinguished by pH, salinity, alkalinity, and nitrite, whereas geographic location was distinguished by temperature, salinity, nitrate, and calcium; temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity, and alkalinity distinguished seasons. Vibrio bacteria differed …

Summary Report: Second Conference On Attribution Science And Climate Law, Jessica A. Wentz

Sabin Center for Climate Change Law

The Sabin Center for Climate Change Law and the Columbia Climate School hosted the Second Conference on Attribution Science and Climate Law at Columbia University on June 10–11, 2026. This event brought together an interdisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners to discuss recent developments in attribution science and the field’s relevance to climate law and policy. Participants included physical scientists, public health researchers, economists, social scientists, legal scholars, advocates, and policy experts. This report provides a written summary of the conference proceedings.

Understanding And Predicting Precipitation Characteristics In The United States Through Machine Learning, Numerical Modeling And Measurements, Cody Luther Ratterman

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Precipitation is one of the most important yet uncertain variables in the climate system. It varies dramatically in terms of timing, accumulation, rate, and phase, depending on location, season, circulation patterns, and atmospheric conditions. Precipitation forecasts, especially snowfall, are essential to supporting drought mitigation and water management in the Intermountain West. Because rainfall and snowfall lead to opposite effects on snowpack, accurately partitioning rain and snow is important to estimate snowpack levels, winter recreation, mountain ecosystems and runoff. The research findings in this dissertation have advanced the understanding and prediction of precipitation and snowpack in the U.S. by addressing the …

Transformative Climate Change Mitigation And Adaptation Policy Analysis In Medan City, Citra Tatius, Mega Anggraeni, Wiwandari Handayani, Rukuh Setiadi

Cities and Urban Development Journal

Background: Climate change is not only a global challenge but also a strategic issue of development in Indonesia. The Medan City Government has implemented various mitigation and adaptation efforts, yet it continues to produce greenhouse gas emissions and is exposed to climate change impacts. A transformative approach in mitigation and adaptation is needed to enable systemic change to comprehensively address climate change from its root causes.

Aims: This paper aims to elaborate on the extent to which mitigation and adaptation policies in Medan City can fulfill the principles of transformative climate actions.

Methods: Data collection for climate profiles and mitigation …

2026 July 30 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Spatial Heterogeneity And Temporal Trends Of California Extreme Heat Using High-Resolution Earth System Model Simulations, Eleni Konstantelos

Master's Theses

Extreme heat threatens California’s diverse landscapes and populations through intensifying and geographically shifting patterns. This study examined the temporal trend and spatial heterogeneities of California’s extreme heat for 1994–2015. The analysis was based on the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2), specifically its 25-km regionally refined configuration. While the Desert/Inland region exhibited the highest number of days ≥ 35 °C and the highest heatwave severity, Central Valley showed the fastest increase in the number of days ≥ 35 °C and heatwave events, as well as the fastest increases of days exceeding various heat index thresholds over …

2026 July 23 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Global Performance Of Remote Sensing-Based And Reanalysis-Driven Models To Estimate Open Water Evaporation, Júlia Brusso Rossi, Ayan Santos Fleischmann, Leonardo Laipelt, Bruno Comini De Andrade, Joshua B. Fisher, Justin L. Huntington, Christopher Pearson, R. Iestyn Woolway, Roseilson Vale, Júlio Tota, Gabriel B. Senay, Huilin Gao, Anderson Ruhoff

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Evaporation plays an essential role in the water cycle, influencing local and regional climates while directly impacting water availability in lakes. However, directly measuring evaporation over water bodies remains challenging due to the high costs of installing and maintaining the required in situ instrumentation. Although several remote sensing algorithms have been providing evaporation estimates, the lack of a global validation hinders our understanding of their relative uncertainties and performances across different regions. Here, we analyze the performance of a suite of models that leverage satellite data and meteorological reanalysis to estimate evaporation over lakes worldwide. We compare 3 remote sensing‐based …

Career: New Insights Into The Ancient Carbon Cycle From Siliceous Deep-Sea Sediments, Donald Penman

Funded Research Records

No abstract provided.

2026 July 16 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Toward The Significance Of Crevasse Orientation In Low And High Crevassed Regions On The Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, Usa, Claire A. Sturm

DePaul Discoveries

Supraglacial landforms serve as potential indicators of underlying bedrock morphology and glacier dynamics. The distribution and morphology of crevasses are closely associated with stress fields and ice-flow regimes, representing processes of stable glaciers, in contrast to their reduced occurrence in stagnant or receding ice masses. The orientation and density of crevasses influence a glacier’s ability to absorb solar energy, as they facilitate movement of meltwater down to subglacial rivers. Beyond the meltwater acting as a lubricant for basal sliding, the slope of the bedrock further impacts the local velocity and ice deformation of a glacier. The study of ice-fracturing mechanics …

Clearing The Air: Tracking Spatial And Temporal Pm2.5 Variability Along A Biking Transect In Chicago, Beau R. Rass

DePaul Discoveries

Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) poses significant risks to human health and disproportionately affects marginalized communities in urban environments (World Health Organization [WHO], 2021; Tessum et al., 2021). Using low-cost mobile sensors, this study explored spatiotemporal PM₂.₅ concentration patterns along a north–south transect of Halsted Street in Chicago. A 2B Technologies Portable Aerosol Monitor (PAM) mounted on a bicycle was used to continuously record PM₂.₅ concentrations with associated GPS coordinates at approximately two-second intervals during 16 sampling events between 08-12-2025 and 10-05-2025. PM₂.₅ concentrations did not differ significantly among the South Side, West Loop, and North Side regions, contrary to the …

Ecological Footprint Assessment, Santina Benincasa

Open Educational Resources

This handout guides students through a structured ecological footprint assessment using the online Footprint Calculator. By following a series of steps—selecting their location, entering detailed lifestyle information, and reviewing personalized results—students evaluate how many planets would be required if everyone lived with their same resource consumption patterns. The activity prompts learners to identify the largest contributors to their footprint, quantify their impact in global hectares, and explore scenario-based changes that could reduce their environmental demand. Through reflection, students consider how everyday human behaviors influence Earth’s productive capacity and resource availability. Overall, the exercise encourages critical thinking about sustainability and personal …

2026 July 9 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Mapping And Diagnosing Local Climate Zones For Urban Heat Assessment And Planning In Tropical Cities, Inuwa Sani Sani, Adi Wibowo

Journal of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development

Rapid urbanization and rising heat risk are intensifying thermal stress and environmental degradation in tropical cities. This study applies the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) framework to examine how urban morphology influences land surface temperature (LST) and to support evidence-based urban planning and climate adaptation in Makassar, Indonesia. We hypothesized that compact built LCZs (1–3) exhibit significantly higher LST than vegetated LCZs (A–G). Landsat 8 OLI and MODIS LST datasets (2013–2023) were processed in Google Earth Engine to evaluate decade-long urban development and thermal dynamics. LCZs were classified using a Random Forest (RF) model trained with approximately 100 manually digitized polygons …

2026 July 2 - Tennessee Weekly Drought Summary, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Weekly Drought Summaries

No abstract provided.

Synoptic Conditions Favoring Tropical Cyclone-Enhanced Southwest Monsoon High Precipitation Events In The Philippines, Alwin Andriel L. Bathan, Lyndon Mark P. Olaguera, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Jose Ramon T. Villarin, John A. Manalo, Jun Matsumoto

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

The interaction of tropical cyclones (TCs) with the southwest monsoon frequently causes heavy precipitation events (HPEs) and widespread flooding across the Philippines. Despite their substantial socio-economic impacts, the synoptic conditions that favor these events remain insufficiently understood, underscoring the need for systematic investigation to help improve forecasting and risk assessment. Lag composite analysis of daily rainfall records and reanalysis data from July to September for the period 1981–2023 shows that HPEs are more likely to occur when: (1) enhanced monsoon westerlies are present over the tropical Indian Ocean for at least nine days before the HPE, (2) a TC passes …

Statistical Evaluation Of A New Orleans Historic Rainfall Dataset (1840–1893), Arielle C. Filostrat

LSU Master's Theses

This study evaluates the climatic credibility of a newly identified historical rainfall dataset for New Orleans, Louisiana, spanning 1840–1893. The New Orleans Historical Dataset (NOHD) is compared to a modern observational record from the Audubon rain gauge (1893–2024) to determine whether nineteenth-century rainfall observations are consistent with known precipitation behavior in the region. Establishing the reliability of early records is critical for extending climatological baselines and improving understanding of long-term rainfall variability.

Historical rainfall observations were first evaluated through archival review using the New Orleans Medical and Surgical Journal and other nineteenth-century meteorological records to verify notable rainfall events. Daily …

Crustal Structure Of The Vøring Plateau And Vøring Spur From Joint Refraction And Reflection Travel-Time Tomography, Anika Nawar Mayeesha

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Crustal architecture of the Vøring Plateau and Vøring Spur in the mid-Norwegian continental margin remains debated because the geophysical data in the area do not uniquely constrain whether the crust is continental, oceanic, or transitional. This study reanalyzes wide-angle ocean-bottom seismometer data from Profile 11-03 across the Vøring passive continental margin using joint travel-time tomography of crustal refractions and Moho reflections. A total of 6,760 first-arrival picks and 542 PmP picks from sixteen instruments were inverted for P-wave velocity and reflector depth. Three starting models were inverted independently to test sensitivity to the initial crustal configuration. The first two used …

Observing System Simulation Experiments To Investigate Impacts Of Deep-Tropospheric Uas Flights On Forecasts, Kenneth Alexander Swan

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Uncrewed aircraft systems have emerged as a promising option to address meteorological gaps in observations in the lower troposphere. With recent advancements, UAS may be able to address gaps aloft in areas that lack coverage from radiosondes and commercial aircraft. UAS have shown the potential to significantly benefit NWP forecasts from profiles in the lowest 2 km AGL, but the impact of UAS profiles to the tropopause has yet to be quantified. Additionally, the impacts of hazardous flying conditions that UAS would encounter need to be addressed to guide future UAS capabilities. To address these questions, we designed an observing …

2026 July - Tennessee Monthly Climate Report, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

Hi All,

Heavy rains, flooding, and a few heat waves defined the month of July across Tennessee. The rainfall continued to improve drought conditions across the state but flooding impacted many areas, including parts of East Tennessee on July 12th with Cocke County reporting six landslides and infrastructure damage in many locations. A strong heatwave impacted the state during the first week of July and another heatwave impacted western TN in late July.

Mean temperatures for July 2026 were above the NOAA 1991-2020 climate normals for the month across Tennessee, with most areas of West and Middle Tennessee averaging 1-2°F …

2026 July - Tennessee Climate Snapshot, Tennessee Climate Office, East Tennessee State University

Tennessee Climate Office Monthly Reports

No abstract provided.

Hydroclimatic Whiplash Across The Contiguous United States: Characterizing Wet–Dry Transitions In Pdsi And Phdi, James Lam, Thomas Christopher Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Hydroclimatic whiplash, characterized by rapid transitions between wet and dry conditions, poses a growing challenge for water resource management and ecosystem stability. However, the spatial and statistical characteristics of wet–dry transitions across the contiguous United States are not fully understood. This study analyzed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI) records from 344 NOAA climate divisions spanning 1895–2024. Whiplash was defined as a transition between severe drought and severe wetness within 12-month rolling windows. Statistical descriptors including lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and skewness were evaluated for whiplash and non-whiplash windows to assess differences between them. Whiplash hotspots …