Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Trends In Cyanotoxin Production Potential In China Lake: An Edna Analysis Of Microcystis And Dolichospermum And The Environmental Drivers Of Cyanotoxin Production, Gennifer M. Rubin

Honors Theses

Episodes of cyano-harmful algal blooms (cyano-HABs) are hypothesized to be exacerbated by the effects of climate change. However, the dynamics of the interactions between elements of climate change and toxigenic cyanobacteria proliferation are not well defined. China Lake is the drinking water source for 7 municipalities in the Kennebec County and is one of many lakes in central Maine that has been subjected to high levels of cyano-HABs and microcystin toxin contamination in recent years. Monitoring the toxicity of these blooms in relation to various aspects of climate change may lead to identification of the major drivers of microcystin production …

Biophysical Interactions Control The Progression Of Harmful Algal Blooms In Chesapeake Bay: A Novel Lagrangian Particle Tracking Model With Mixotrophic Growth And Vertical Migration, Jilian Xiong, Jian Shen, Qubin Qin, Michelle C. Tomlinson, Yinglong J. Zhang, Xun Cai, Fei Yi, Linlin Cui, Margaret R. Mulholland

OES Faculty Publications

Climate change and nutrient pollution contribute to the expanding global footprint of harmful algal blooms. To better predict their spatial distributions and disentangle biophysical controls, a novel Lagrangian particle tracking and biological (LPT-Bio) model was developed with a high-resolution numerical model and remote sensing. The LPT-Bio model integrates the advantages of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches by explicitly simulating algal bloom dynamics, algal biomass change, and diel vertical migrations along predicted trajectories. The model successfully captured the intensity and extent of the 2020 Margalefidinium polykrikoides bloom in the lower Chesapeake Bay and resolved fine-scale structures of bloom patchiness, demonstrating a reliable …

Interactions Of Bioactive Trace Metals In Shipboard Southern Ocean Incubation Experiments, Shannon M. Burns, Randelle M. Bundy, William Abbott, Zuzanna Abdala, Alexa R. Sterling, P. Dreux Chappell, Bethany D. Jenkins, Kristen N. Buck

OES Faculty Publications

In the Southern Ocean, it is well‐known that iron (Fe) limits phytoplankton growth. Yet, other trace metals can also affect phytoplankton physiology. This study investigated feedbacks between phytoplankton growth and dissolved Fe, manganese (Mn), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and cadmium (Cd) concentrations in Southern Ocean shipboard incubations. Three experiments were conducted in September–October 2016 near the West Antarctic Peninsula: Incubations 1 and 3 offshore in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and Incubation 2 inshore in Bransfield Strait. Additions of Fe and/or vitamin B₁₂ to inshore and offshore waters were employed and allowed assessment of metal (M) …

Nitrite Cycling In The Primary Nitrite Maxima Of The Eastern Tropical North Pacific, Nicole M. Travis, Colette L. Kelly, Margaret R. Mulholland, Karen L. Casciotti

OES Faculty Publications

The primary nitrite maximum (PNM) is a ubiquitous feature of the upper ocean, where nitrite accumulates in a sharp peak at the base of the euphotic zone. This feature is situated where many chemical and hydrographic properties have strong gradients and the activities of several microbial processes overlap. Near the PNM, four major microbial processes are active in nitrite cycling: ammonia oxidation, nitrite oxidation, nitrate reduction and nitrite uptake. The first two processes are mediated by the nitrifying archaeal/bacterial community, while the second two processes are primarily conducted by phytoplankton. The overlapping spatial habitats and substrate requirements for these microbes …

The Importance Of Winter Dinoflagellate Blooms In Chesapeake Bay— A Missing Link In Bay Productivity, Nicole C. Millette, Sophie Clayton, Margaret R. Mulholland, Leah Gibala-Smith, Michael Lane

OES Faculty Publications

It is widely assumed that phytoplankton abundance and productivity decline during temperate winters because of low irradiance and temperatures. However, winter phytoplankton blooms commonly occur in temperate estuaries, but they are often undocumented because of reduced water quality monitoring in winter. The small body of in situ work that has been done on winter blooms suggests they can be of enormous consequence to ecosystems. However, because monitoring is often reduced or stopped altogether during winter, it is unclear how widespread these blooms are or how long they can last. We analyzed an over 30-year record of monthly phytoplankton monitoring samples …

Providing A Framework For Seagrass Mapping In United States Coastal Ecosystems Using High Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery, Megan M. Coffer, David D. Graybill, Peter J. Whitman, Blake A. Schaeffer, Wilson B. Salls, Richard C. Zimmerman, Victoria Hill, Marie Cindy Lebrasse, Jiang Li, Darryl J. Keith, James Kaldy, Phil Colarusso, Gary Raulerson, David Ward, W. Judson Kenworthy

OES Faculty Publications

Seagrasses have been widely recognized for their ecosystem services, but traditional seagrass monitoring approaches emphasizing ground and aerial observations are costly, time-consuming, and lack standardization across datasets. This study leveraged satellite imagery from Maxar's WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 high spatial resolution, commercial satellite platforms to provide a consistent classification approach for monitoring seagrass at eleven study areas across the continental United States, representing geographically, ecologically, and climatically diverse regions. A single satellite image was selected at each of the eleven study areas to correspond temporally to reference data representing seagrass coverage and was classified into four general classes: land, seagrass, no …

Potential Interactions Between Diatoms And Bacteria Are Shaped By Trace Element Gradients In The Southern Ocean, Alexa R. Sterling, Laura Z. Holland, Randelle M. Bundy, Shannon M. Burns, Kristen N. Buck, P. Dreux Chappell, Bethany D. Jenkins

OES Faculty Publications

The growth of diatoms in the Southern Ocean, especially the region surrounding the West Antarctic Peninsula, is frequently constrained by low dissolved iron and other trace metal concentrations. This challenge may be overcome by mutualisms between diatoms and co-occurring associated bacteria, in which diatoms produce organic carbon as a substrate for bacterial growth, and bacteria produce siderophores, metal-binding ligands that can supply diatoms with metals upon uptake as well as other useful secondary compounds for diatom growth like vitamins. To examine the relationships between diatoms and bacteria in the plankton (diatom) size class (> 3 mu m), we sampled both …

Atmospheric Input And Seasonal Inventory Of Dissolved Iron In The Sargasso Sea: Implications For Iron Dynamics In Surface Waters Of The Subtropical Ocean, Peter N. Sedwick, Bettina M. Sohst, K. N. Buck, S. Caprara, R. J. Johnson, D. C. Ohnemus, L. E. Sofen, A. Tagliabue, B. S. Twining, Tara E. Williams

OES Faculty Publications

Constraining the role of dust deposition in regulating the concentration of the essential micronutrient iron in surface ocean waters requires knowledge of the flux of seawater-soluble iron in aerosols and the replacement time of dissolved iron (DFe) in the euphotic zone. Here we estimate these quantities using seasonally resolved DFe data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study region and weekly-scale measurements of iron in aerosols and rain from Bermuda during 2019. In response to seasonal changes in vertical mixing, primary production and dust deposition, surface DFe concentrations vary from ∼0.2 nM in early spring to >1 nM in late summer, …

Five Years Measuring The Muck: Evaluating Interannual Variability Of Nutrient Loads From Tidal Flooding, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, J. Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

OES Faculty Publications

Due to sea level rise, tidal flooding is now common in low-lying coastal systems around the world. Yet, the contribution of tidal flooding to non-point source nutrient loads and their impact on the quality of adjacent waters remains poorly constrained. Here, we quantified dissolved nutrient loading and Enterococcus abundance during annual autumnal king tides (i.e., perigean spring tides), between 2017 and 2021, in a sub-watershed of the lower Chesapeake Bay. To calculate nutrient loading from tidal flooding, we used geospatial inundation depths from a street-level hydrodynamic model to estimate floodwater volumes during each of the five sampling events and the …

Sediment Delivery To Sustain The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change And Anthropogenic Impacts, Jessica L. Raff, Steven L. Goodbred Jr., Jennifer L. Pickering, Ryan S. Sincavage, John C. Ayers, Md. Saddam Hossain, Carol A. Wilson, Chris Paola, Michael S. Steckler, Dhiman R. Mondal, Jean-Louis Grimaud, Celine Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Humayun Akhter, Brandee N. Carlson, Elizabeth L. Chamberlain, Meagan Dejter, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Richard P. Hale, Mahfuzur R. Khan, Md. Golam Muktadir, Md. Munsur Rahman, Lauren A. Williams

OES Faculty Publications

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to …

A Global Comparison Of Marine Chlorophyll Variability Observed In Eulerian And Lagrangian Perspectives, Angela M. Kuhn, Matthew Mazloff, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Oliver Jahn, Sophie Clayton, Tatiana Rynearson, Andrew D. Barton

OES Faculty Publications

The California Current System is a diatom‐dominated region characterized by seasonal coastal upwelling and additional elevated mesoscale activity. Cyclonic mesoscale eddies in the region trap productive coastal waters with their planktonic communities and transport them offshore with limited interaction with surrounding waters, effectively acting as natural mesocosms, where phytoplankton populations undergo ecological succession as eddies age. This study examines diatom community composition within two mesoscale cyclonic eddies that formed in the same region of the California Current System 2 months apart and in the California Current waters surrounding them. The diatom communities were analyzed in the context of shifting environmental …

Systemic Analyses Of Radiocarbon Ages Of Coexisting Planktonic Foraminifera, Jörg Lippold, Julia Gottschalk, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Matthew W. Schmidt, Sönke Szidat, Andre Bahr

OES Faculty Publications

We compare radiocarbon (¹⁴C) ages of coexisting planktonic foraminifera species from sediment cores VM12-107 and KNR166-2-26JPC from the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean for three time periods (Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 1, last glacial maximum). We find a maximum inter-species difference of 1200 ¹⁴C yr. On average, the ¹⁴C ages deviate by ∼300 yr between Globigerinoides ruber and other species. In most cases, this exceeds the analytical uncertainty range of the measurements and thus renders the choice of species for generating age models as important as sample weight. While modern stratified water-column profiles imply an increase in ¹⁴C …

Global Oceanic Diazotroph Database Version 2 And Elevated Estimate Of Global N2 Fixation, Zhibo Shao, Yangchun Xu, Hua Wang, Weicheng Luo, Lice Wang, Yuhong Huang, Nona Sheila R. Agawin, Ayaz Ahmed, Mar Benavides, Mikkel Bentzon-Tilia, Ilana Berman-Frank, Hugo Berthelot, Isabelle C. Biegala, Mariana B. Bif, Antonio Bode, Sophie Bonnet, Deborah A. Bronk, Mark V. Brown, Lisa Campbell, Ya-Wei Luo

OES Faculty Publications

Marine diazotrophs convert dinitrogen (N₂) gas into bioavailable nitrogen (N), supporting life in the global ocean. In 2012, the first version of the global oceanic diazotroph database (version 1) was published. Here, we present an updated version of the database (version 2), significantly increasing the number of in situ diazotrophic measurements from 13 565 to 55 286. Data points for N₂ fixation rates, diazotrophic cell abundance, and nifH gene copy abundance have increased by 184 %, 86 %, and 809 %, respectively. Version 2 includes two new data sheets for the nifH gene copy abundance of non-cyanobacterial …

Impact Of Atmospheric Correction On Classification And Quantification Of Seagrass Density From Worldview-2 Imagery, Victoria J. Hill, Richard C. Zimmerman, Paul Bissett, David Kohler, Blake Schaeffer, Megan Coffer, Jiang Li, Kazi Aminul Islam

OES Faculty Publications

Mapping the seagrass distribution and density in the underwater landscape can improve global Blue Carbon estimates. However, atmospheric absorption and scattering introduce errors in space-based sensors’ retrieval of sea surface reflectance, affecting seagrass presence, density, and above-ground carbon (AGC_seagrass) estimates. This study assessed atmospheric correction’s impact on mapping seagrass using WorldView-2 satellite imagery from Saint Joseph Bay, Saint George Sound, and Keaton Beach in Florida, USA. Coincident in situ measurements of water-leaving radiance (L_w), optical properties, and seagrass leaf area index (LAI) were collected. Seagrass classification and the retrieval of LAI were compared after empirical line …

Acidification Of Northeastern Usa Lakes From Rising Anthropogenic-Sourced Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide And Its Effects On Aluminum Speciation, Karen H. Johannesson, Jaxon Dii Horne, Anant Misra, Catherine Aliperta, Orpheus V. Meletis, Robert C. Santore, Christopher D. White, Georgia Mavrommati, David J. Burdige

OES Faculty Publications

The impact of rising atmospheric CO₂ (pCO₂^atm) from anthropogenic activities on pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, carbonate mineral saturation, and aluminum (Al) speciation is evaluated for 18 northeastern USA lakes using polythermal, sliding activity reaction path models. pCO₂^atm was forced using two scenarios from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report in which pCO₂^atm attains either 600 or 1,100 ppm in 2,100. Results suggest pH will decrease 0.15 and 0.32 pH units, _aCO^2-₃ will decrease 24% and 49%, and Ω_aragonite will decrease 21% and 45%, respectively. These changes are of the same …

Isotopic Evidence For Sources Of Dissolved Carbon And The Role Of Organic Matter Respiration In The Fraser River Basin, Canada, Britta M. Voss, Timothy I. Eglinton, Bernhard Peucker-Ehrenbrink, Valier Galy, Susan Q. Lang, Cameron Mcintyre, Robert G.M. Spencer, Ekaterina Bulygina, Zhaohui Aleck Wang, Katherine A. Guay

OES Faculty Publications

Sources of dissolved and particulate carbon to the Fraser River system vary significantly in space and time. Tributaries in the northern interior of the basin consistently deliver higher concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the main stem than other tributaries. Based on samples collected near the Fraser River mouth throughout 2013, the radiocarbon age of DOC exported from the Fraser River does not change significantly across seasons despite a spike in DOC concentration during the freshet, suggesting modulation of heterogeneous upstream chemical and isotopic signals during transit through the river basin. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations are highest in …

Sea Ice Formation, Glacial Melt And The Solubility Pump Boundary Conditions In The Ross Sea, Brice Loose, Sharon Stammerjohn, Peter Sedwick, Stephen Ackley

OES Faculty Publications

Seasonal formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) in the Ross Sea is a direct precursor to Antarctic Bottom Water, which fills the deep ocean with atmospheric gases in what composes the southern limb of the solubility pump. Measurements of seawater noble gas concentrations during katabatic wind events in two Ross Sea polynyas reveal the physical processes that determine the boundary value properties for DSW. This decomposition reveals 5–6 g kg⁻¹ of glacial meltwater in DSW and sea-ice production rates of up to 14 m yr⁻¹ within the Terra Nova Bay polynya. Despite winds upwards of 35 m s …

The Vulnerability And Resilience Of Seagrass Ecosystems To Marine Heatwaves In New Zealand: A Remote Sensing Analysis Of Seascape Metrics Using Planetscope Imagery, Ken Joseph E. Clemente, Mads S. Thomsen, Richard C. Zimmerman

OES Faculty Publications

Seagrasses are foundation species that provide ecosystem functions and services, including increased biodiversity, sediment retention, carbon sequestration, and fish nursery habitat. However, anthropogenic stressors that reduce water quality, impose large-scale climate changes, and amplify weather patterns, such as marine heatwaves, are altering seagrass meadow configurations. Quantifying large-scale trends in seagrass distributions will help evaluate the impacts of climate drivers on their functions and services. Here, we quantified spatiotemporal dynamics in abundances and configurations of intertidal and shallow subtidal seagrass (Zostera muelleri) meadows in 20 New Zealand (NZ) estuaries that span a 5-year period (mid/late 2016–early 2022) just before, …

Authigenic Iron Is A Significant Component Of Oceanic Labile Particulate Iron Inventories, Laura E. Sofen, Olga A. Antipova, Kristen N. Buck, Salvatore Caprara, Lauren Chacho, Rodney J. Johnson, Gabriella Kim, Peter Morton, Daniel C. Ohnemus, Sara Rauschenberg, Peter N. Sedwick, Alessandro Tagliabue, Benjamin S. Twining

OES Faculty Publications

Particulate phases transport trace metals (TM) and thereby exert a major control on TM distribution in the ocean. Particulate TMs can be classified by their origin as lithogenic (crustal material), biogenic (cellular), or authigenic (formed in situ), but distinguishing these fractions analytically in field samples is a challenge often addressed using operational definitions and assumptions. These different phases require accurate characterization because they have distinct roles in the biogeochemical iron cycle. Particles collected from the upper 2,000 m of the northwest subtropical Atlantic Ocean over four seasonal cruises throughout 2019 were digested with a chemical leach to operationally distinguish labile …

An Update On The Influence Of Natural Climate Variability And Anthropogenic Climate Change On Tropical Cyclones, Suzana J. Camargo, Hiroyuki Murakami, Nadia Bloemendaal, Savin S. Chand, Medha S. Deshpande, Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Thomas R. Knutson, I. I. Lin, Il- Ju Moon, Christina M. Patricola, Kevin A. Reed, Malcolm J. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Chi Yung Tam, Elizabeth J. Wallace, Liguang Wu, Yohei Yamada, Wei Zhang, Haikun Zhao

OES Faculty Publications

A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty …

Phytoplankton Thermal Trait Parameterization Alters Community Structure And Biogeochemical Processes In A Modeled Ocean, Stephanie I. Anderson, Clara Fronda, Andrew D. Barton, Sophie Clayton, Tatiana A. Rynearson, Stephanie Dutkiewicz

OES Faculty Publications

Phytoplankton exhibit diverse physiological responses to temperature which influence their fitness in the environment and consequently alter their community structure. Here, we explored the sensitivity of phytoplankton community structure to thermal response parameterization in a modelled marine phytoplankton community. Using published empirical data, we evaluated the maximum thermal growth rates (μ_max) and temperature coefficients (Q₁₀; the rate at which growth scales with temperature) of six key Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs): coccolithophores, cyanobacteria, diatoms, diazotrophs, dinoflagellates, and green algae. Following three well-documented methods, PFTs were either assumed to have (1) the same μ_max and …

Carbonate Chemistry And Carbon Sequestation Driven By Inorganic Carbon Outwelling From Mangroves And Saltmarshes, Gloria M. S. Reithmaier, Alex Cabral, Anirban Akhand, Matthew J. Bogard, Alberto V. Borges, Steven Bouillon, David J. Burdige, Mitchell Call, Nengwang Chen, Xiaogang Chen, Luiz C. Cotovicz Jr., Meagan J. Eagle, Erik Kristensen, Kevin D. Kroeger, Zeyang Lu, Damien T. Maher, J. Lucas Pérez-Lloréns, Raghab Ray, Pierre Taillardat, Joseph J. Tamborski, Rob C. Upstill-Goddard, Faming Wang, Zhaohui Aleck Wang, Kai Xiao, Yvonne Y.Y. Yau, Isaac R. Santos

OES Faculty Publications

Mangroves and saltmarshes are biogeochemical hotspots storing carbon in sediments and in the ocean following lateral carbon export (outwelling). Coastal seawater pH is modified by both uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and natural biogeochemical processes, e.g., wetland inputs. Here, we investigate how mangroves and saltmarshes influence coastal carbonate chemistry and quantify the contribution of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) outwelling to blue carbon budgets. Observations from 45 mangroves and 16 saltmarshes worldwide revealed that >70% of intertidal wetlands export more DIC than alkalinity, potentially decreasing the pH of coastal waters. Porewater-derived DIC outwelling (81 ± 47 mmol m^{−2 …}

The Impact Of Climate Change On Environmental Sustainability And Human Mortality, Xingzhi Mara Chen, Andrew Sharma, Hua Liu

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Climate dictates the critical aspects of human environmental conditions. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions due to human-induced climate change have alarmingly increased. Consequently, climate change directly affects environmental sustainability and human mortality in the short term and creates prolonged and complicated long-term indirect grave risks. This paper examines three-level environmental impact risks associated with climate change on human mortality. It proposes a conceptual framework for developing an empirical event-based human mortality database related to climate change and communication strategies to enhance global environmental adaptation, resilience, and sustainability.

Anticipating And Adapting To The Impacts Of Climate Change On Low Elevation Coastal Zone (Lecz) Communities, Lynn Donelson Wright, Thomas Allen, Kiki Caruson, Alain Hénaff, Jaia Syvitski

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

[Scholarcy Abstract] The rates of sea level rise in coastal Virginia and the Chesapeake Bay significantly exceed the global rate and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation adds to the annual rates.

The original vision was to enhance future resilience of Low-Elevation Coastal Zone communities by advancing understandings and approaches to better anticipate and mitigate hazards to human health, safety and welfare and reduce deleterious impacts to coastal residents and industries. The goal of the thematic Research Topic has been to assemble interdisciplinary papers that contribute to better understanding of the couplings among physical, ecological, socioeconomic, management and policy …

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Options For Western Australian Agriculture, Department Of Primary Industries And Regional Development, Western Australia

Climate Science Published Reports

The Western Australian (WA) Government is committed to building the climate resilience of the agriculture industry. The WA Climate Change Policy underscores this commitment to adapting to climate change and working with all sectors of the economy to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Achieving climate resilience requires both adaptation and the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which accelerate climate change.

The Sectoral Emissions Reduction Strategies (SERS) are a core commitment of the Western Australian Climate Policy. These will provide robust and credible emissions reduction pathways across sectors for the whole of WA. Development of the SERS, announced in …

Acceleration Of U.S. Southeast And Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified By Internal Climate Variability, Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist

CCPO Publications

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr⁻¹ since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the …

Using Stochastic Physics Perturbations In Ensemble Forecasts To Investigate Predictability Of Mesoscale Winter Precipitation Events, William Massey Bartolini

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Accurate winter precipitation forecasts are difficult due to factors influencing precipitation amounts and precipitation types including numerical weather prediction biases. In particular, large forecast errors can arise due to uncertainties in parameterized processes, especially those related to microphysics and turbulence. Many winter weather impacts are due to mesoscale precipitation features that are better represented in convection-permitting model forecasts. One way to account for model physics uncertainty is to design convection-permitting ensembles using stochastic physics methods. For example, stochastic parameter perturbation (SPP) varies parameters within individual schemes. SPP methods can be combined with varied initial and boundary conditions (ICs/BCs) to represent …

Enhancing The Impact Of Infrared Satellite Observations On Data Assimilation Through Aerosol-Aware Framework, Shih-Wei Wei

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Aerosol radiative effects, both direct and indirect, have been extensively studied in climate projection and numerical weather prediction. However, the aerosol impacts on radiance in the context of data assimilation (DA) have received less research attention. In modern DA systems, thermal infrared (IR) radiance observations have been extensively assimilated since the mid-1990s. Prior studies have shown pronounced reduction of brightness temperature (BT) at the IR window region due to the presence of aerosols. Despite its effects on IR radiance, aerosol information is not considered in most DA systems.Without considering the aerosol impacts on radiance, the representation errors arise from the …

The Impacts Of Atlantic And Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability On South American And Arctic Climate, Zhaoxiangrui He

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variations mainly include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual timescales and Pacific multidecadal variability (PMV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on decadal-interdecadal timescales. Understanding their impacts on South American and Arctic climate is crucial for studying climate variability and helpful to constrain climate model projections for these regions on multidecadal timescales. Prior studies focused mainly on their impacts on global climate, but multidecadal impacts on South American climate are poorly understood due to the lack of long observational records. Furthermore, earlier research investigated primarily the isolated impacts on global climate from the Atlantic …

Assimilating New York State Mesonet Observations For A Summertime Convective Event, Hsiao-Chun Lin

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In New York State (NYS), the prediction of high-impact severe weather event has presented a challenging forecasting problem. The NYS Mesonet (NYSM) has the potential to improve the severe weather forecasting through its continuous in situ and remote sensing measurements on the lower troposphere. The dense observing network can capture the evolution of mesoscale motions with high temporal and spatial resolution. The objectives of this dissertation are (1) to assess whether the assimilation of NYSM observations into numerical weather prediction models could improve model analysis and short-term weather forecasting, and (2) to figure out the important key factor and physical …