Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Towards Comprehensive Observing And Modeling Systems For Monitoring And Predicting Regional To Coastal Sea Level, Rui M. Ponte, Mark Carson, Mauro Cirano, Catia M. Domingues, Tal Ezer, Xuebin Zhang

CCPO Publications

A major challenge for managing impacts and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies for coastal zones affected by future sea level (SL) rise is our very limited capacity to predict SL change on coastal scales, over various timescales. Predicting coastal SL requires the ability to monitor and simulate a multitude of physical processes affecting SL, from local effects of wind waves and river runoff to remote influences of the large-scale ocean circulation on the coast. Here we assess our current understanding of the causes of coastal SL variability on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, including geodetic, oceanographic and atmospheric aspects of …

Regional Differences In Sea Level Rise Between The Mid-Atlantic Bight And The South Atlantic Bight: Is The Gulf Stream To Blame?, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Recent studies appear to show that a "hot spot" for accelerated sea level rise (SLR) shifted around 2010 from the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) to the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) and south Florida. The role of the Gulf Stream (GS) in this shift was thus investigated. The findings show that in the ~15–20 years before, SLR was accelerating in the MAB due to weakening and southward shifting of the GS. After 2010, however, SLR started slowing down in the MAB due to strengthening and northward shifting of the GS. Thermosteric effects seen in altimeter data indicate a warming trend south of …

Hurricane Model Development At Gfdl: A Collaborative Success Story From A Historical Perspective, Morris A. Bender, Timothy Marchok, Robert E. Tuleya, Isaac Ginis, Vijay Tallapragada, Stephen J. Lord

CCPO Publications

The hurricane project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) was established in 1970. By the mid-1970s pioneering research had led to the development of a new hurricane model. As the reputation of the model grew, GFDL was approached in 1986 by the director of the National Meteorological Center about establishing a collaboration between the two federal organizations to transition the model into an operational modeling system. After a multiyear effort by GFDL scientists to develop a system that could support rigorous requirements of operations, and multiyear testing had demonstrated its superior performance compared …

The Tides They Are A-Changin': A Comprehensive Review Of Past And Future Nonastronomical Changes In Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, And Future Implications, Ivan D. Haigh, Mark D. Pickering, J. A. Mattias Green, Brian K. Arbic, Arne Arns, Sönke Dangendorf, David F. Hill, Kevin Horsburgh, Tom Howard, Déborah Idier, David A. Jay, Leon Jänicke, Serena B. Lee, Malte Müller, Michael Schindelegger, Stefan A. Talke, Sophie-Berenice Wilmes, Philip L. Woodworth

CCPO Publications

Scientists and engineers have observed for some time that tidal amplitudes at many locations are shifting considerably due to nonastronomical factors. Here we review comprehensively these important changes in tidal properties, many of which remain poorly understood. Over long geological time scales, tectonic processes drive variations in basin size, depth, and shape and hence the resonant properties of ocean basins. On shorter geological time scales, changes in oceanic tidal properties are dominated by variations in water depth. A growing number of studies have identified widespread, sometimes regionally coherent, positive, and negative trends in tidal constituents and levels during the 19th, …

Impacts Of Basin-Scale Climate Modes On Coastal Sea Level: A Review, Weiqing Han, Detlef Stammer, Philip Thompson, Tal Ezer, Hindu Palanisamy, Xuebin Zhang, Catia M. Domingues, Lei Zhang, Dongliang Yuan

CCPO Publications

Global sea level rise (SLR) associated with a warming climate exerts significant stress on coastal societies and low-lying island regions. The rates of coastal SLR observed in the past few decades, however, have large spatial and temporal differences from the global mean, which to a large part have been attributed to basin-scale climate modes. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about climate modes’ impacts on coastal sea level variability from interannual-to-multidecadal timescales. Relevant climate modes, their impacts and associated driving mechanisms through both remote and local processes are elaborated separately for the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic …

Modeling Ocean Eddies On Antarctica's Cold Water Continental Shelves And Their Effects On Ice Shelf Basal Melting, Stefanie L. Mack, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Dennis J. Mcgillicuddy, Laurence Padman

CCPO Publications

Changes in the rate of ocean‐driven basal melting of Antarctica's ice shelves can alter the rate at which the grounded ice sheet loses mass and contributes to sea level change. Melt rates depend on the inflow of ocean heat, which occurs through steady circulation and eddy fluxes. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of eddy fluxes for ice shelves affected by relatively warm intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water. However, ice shelves on cold water continental shelves primarily melt from dense shelf water near the grounding line and from light surface water at the ice shelf front. Eddy effects on basal …

Management Strategy Evaluation: Transdisciplinary And Transparent Natural Resource Management, Eileen Hofmann, Lisa Maddison, Ingrid Van Putten

CCPO Publications

Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) is a modelling tool used to evaluate sufficiently realistic simulations of potential policy choices in complex systems. As a contribution to the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project IMBIZO V, which occurred in October 2017, a workshop was convened with the goal of developing a coherent understanding of best-practice approaches for MSEs. MSEs are becoming standard approaches to characterizing risk across fisheries management organizations globally. MSEs are important tools that aid in delineating objectives, costs, and constraints that define risk and provide a possible mechanism to meet assessment challenges. The MSE workshop considered case studies drawn …

Delivering Sustained, Coordinated, And Integrated Observations Of The Southern Ocean For Global Impact, Louise Newman, Petra Heil, Rowan Tebilco, Katsuro Katsumata, Andrew Constable, Esmee Van Wijk, Karen Assmann, Joana Beja, Phillippa Bricher, Richard Coleman, Daniel Costa, Steve Diggs, Riccardo Farneti, Sarah Fawcett, Sarah T. Gille, Katharine R. Hendry, Sian Henly, Eileen Hofmann, Ted Maksym, Matthew Mazloff, Andrew Meijers, Michael M. Meredith, Sebastien Moreau, Burcu Ozsoy, Robin Robertson, Irene Schloss, Oscar Schofield, Jiuxin Shi, Elisabeth Sikes, Inga J. Smith, Sebastiaan Swart, Anna Wahlin, Guy Williams, Michael J. M. Williams, Laura Herraiz-Borreguero, Stefan Kern, Jan Lieser, Robert A. Massom, Jessica Melbourne-Thomas, Patricia Miloslavich, Gunnar Spreen

CCPO Publications

The Southern Ocean is disproportionately important in its effect on the Earth system, impacting climatic, biogeochemical, and ecological systems, which makes recent observed changes to this system cause for global concern. The enhanced understanding and improvements in predictive skill needed for understanding and projecting future states of the Southern Ocean require sustained observations. Over the last decade, the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) has established networks for enhancing regional coordination and research community groups to advance development of observing system capabilities. These networks support delivery of the SOOS 20-year vision, which is to develop a circumpolar system that ensures time …

Description And Mechanisms Of The Mid-Year Upwelling In The Southern Caribbean Sea From Remote Sensing And Local Data, Digna T. Rueda-Roa, Tal Ezer, Frank E. Muller-Karger

CCPO Publications

The southern Caribbean Sea experiences strong coastal upwelling between December and April due to the seasonal strengthening of the trade winds. A second upwelling was recently detected in the southeastern Caribbean during June-August, when local coastal wind intensities weaken. Using synoptic satellite measurements and in situ data, this mid-year upwelling was characterized in terms of surface and subsurface temperature structures, and its mechanisms were explored. The mid-year upwelling lasts 6-9 weeks with satellite sea surface temperature (SST) ~1-2°C warmer than the primary upwelling. Three possible upwelling mechanisms were analyzed: cross-shore Ekman transport (csET) due to alongshore winds, wind curl (Ekman …

Scientific And Technical Advisory Committee Review Of The Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’S Climate Change Assessment Framework And Programmatic Integration And Response Efforts, Maria Hermann, Scott Doney, Tal Ezer, Keryn Gedan, Philip Morefield, Barbara Muhling, Douglas Pirhalla, Stephen Shaw

CCPO Publications

[From the Executive Summary] The following report presents a synthesis of reviewer responses from the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee’s (STAC) panel on the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s Climate Change Assessment Framework (CCAF) and Programmatic Integration and Response Efforts. The enclosed findings and recommendations are in response to the 16 questions delivered to the panel (Appendix A).

In summary, given the current state of knowledge, the combination of using climate model projections and downscaling provides an acceptable baseline for estimating changing climate conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, and the panel finds the CCAF approach to be fundamentally sound. However, the …

Effects Of Projected Changes In Wind, Atmospheric Temperature, And Freshwater Inflow On The Ross Sea, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann, Walker O. Smith Jr.

CCPO Publications

A 5-km horizontal resolution regional ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea is used to examine the effects of changes in wind strength, air temperature, and increased meltwater input on the formation of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW), on-shelf transport and vertical mixing of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and its transformation into modified CDW (MCDW), and basal melt of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS). A 20% increase in wind speed, with no other atmospheric changes, reduced summer sea ice minimum area by 20%, opposite the observed trend of the past three decades. Increased winds with spatially uniform, reduced atmospheric temperatures …

Climate-Change-Driven Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Detected In The Altimeter Era, R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J. T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters, G. T. Mitchum

CCPO Publications

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y². Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections.

Editorial-The 8th International Workshop On Modeling The Ocean (Iwmo 2016) In Bologna, Italy, June 7-10, 2016, Tal Ezer, Lie-Yauw Oey, Huijie Xue, Marco Zavatarelli, Gianmaria Sannino, Ricardo De Camargo

CCPO Publications

The 8th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO 2016) was held on June 7–10, 2016, at one of the oldest universities in Europe—the University of Bologna in Italy (founded 1088 A.D.). The workshop returned to Europe for the second time (the other European IWMO was held in Norway in 2013; Berntsen et al. 2014). Since the establishment of the IWMO in 2009 (Oey et al. 2010a, b), meetings were held four times in Asia, two times in Europe, two times in North America, one time in Australia, and for the 10th anniversary of IWMO, the 2018’s meeting will be …

Ocean Circulation Causes Strong Variability In The Mid-Atlantic Bight Nitrogen Budget, Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Pierre St-Laurent, Yongjin Xiao, Eileen Hofmann, Kimberly Hyde, Antonio Mannino, Raymond G. Najjar, Diego A. Narváez, Sergio R. Signorini, Hanqin Tian, John Wilkin, Yuanzhi Yao, Jianhong Xue

CCPO Publications

Understanding of nitrogen cycling on continental shelves, a critical component of global nutrient cycling, is hampered by limited observations compared to the strong variability on a wide range of time and space scales. Numerical models have the potential to partially alleviate this issue by filling spatiotemporal data gaps and hence resolving annual area-integrated nutrient fluxes. In this study, a three-dimensional biogeochemical-circulation model was implemented to simulate the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) nitrogen budget. Model results demonstrate that, on average, MAB net community production (NCP) was positive (+0.27 Tg N/year), indicating net autotrophy. Interannual variability in NCP was strong, with annual values …

Integrated Ocean, Earth, And Atmospheric Observations For Resilience Planning In Hampton Roads, Virginia, Jon Derek Loftis, Molly Mitchell, Larry Atkinson, Ben Hamlington, Tom Allen, David Forrest, Teresa Updyke, Navid Tahvildari, David Bekaert, Mark Bushnell

CCPO Publications

Building flood resilience in coastal communities requires a precise understanding of the temporal and spatial scales of inundation and the ability to detect and predict changes in flooding. In Hampton Roads, the Intergovernmental Pilot Project’s Scientific Advisory Committee recommended an integrated network of ocean, earth, and atmospheric data collection from both private and public sector organizations that engage in active scientific monitoring and observing. Since its establishment, the network has grown to include monitoring of water levels, land subsidence, wave measurements, current measurements, and atmospheric conditions. High-resolution land elevation and land cover data sets have also been developed. These products …

Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present, Wcrp Global Sea Level Budget Group, Benjamin Hamlington

CCPO Publications

Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g.,acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled "Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts", an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the …

The Increased Risk Of Flooding In Hampton Roads: On The Roles Of Sea Level Rise, Storm Surges, Hurricanes, And The Gulf Stream, Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

The impact of sea level rise on increased tidal flooding and storm surges in the Hampton Roads region is demonstrated, using ~90 years of water level measurements in Norfolk, Virginia. Impacts from offshore storms and variations in the Gulf Stream (GS) are discussed as well, in view of recent studies that show that weakening in the flow of the GS (daily, interannually, or decadal) is often related to elevated water levels along the U.S. East Coast. Two types of impacts from hurricanes on flooding in Hampton Roads are demonstrated here. One type is when a hurricane like Isabel (2003) makes …

Urban Areas In Coastal Zones, Richard C. Dawson, M. Shah Alam Khan, Vivien Gornitz, Maria Fernanda Lemos, Larry Atkinson, Julie Pullen, Juan Camilo Osorio, Lindsay Usher, Cynthia Rosenzweig (Ed.), William Solecki (Ed.), Patricia Romero-Lankao (Ed.), Shagun Mehrotra (Ed.), Shobhakar Dhakal (Ed.), Somayya Ali Ibrahim (Ed.)

CCPO Publications

[First Paragraph] Coastal cities have been subjected to extreme weather events since the onset of urbanization. Climatic change, in particular sea level rise, coupled with rapid urban development are amplifying the challenge of managing risks to coastal cities. Moreover, urban expansion and changes and intensification in land use further pressure sensitive coastal environments through pollution and habitat loss.

Distributions Of Krill And Antarctic Silverfish And Correlations With Environmental Variables In The Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, L. Brynn Davis, Eileen E. Hofmann, John M. Klinck, Andrea Piñones, Michael S. Dinniman

CCPO Publications

Antarctic krill Euphausia superba, crystal krill E. crystallorophias, and Antarctic silverfish Pleuragramma antarctica are key mid-trophic level species in the Ross Sea, connecting primary production to the upper trophic levels. Distributions of these species were constructed from observations made in the western Ross Sea from 1988 to 2004. Distributions of environmental conditions were obtained from a 5-km resolution circulation model (temperature, mixed layer depth, surface speed) and satellite-derived observations (chlorophyll, sea ice cover). A hierarchy of statistical methods determined correlations and relationships between species and environmental conditions. Each species occupies a localized habitat defined by different environmental characteristics. …

A Synergistic Approach For Evaluating Climate Model Output For Ecological Applications, Rachel D. Cavanagh, Eugene J. Murphy, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, John Turner, Cheryl A. Knowland, Stuart P. Corney, Walker O. Smith Jr., Claire M. Waluda, Nadine M. Johnston, Richard G. J. Bellerby, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus …

Comment On "Using An Adcp To Estimate Turbulent Kinetic Energy Dissipation Rate In Sheltered Coastal Waters", Ann E. Gargett

CCPO Publications

Greene et al. revisit the suggestion that the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate could be estimated through a "large-eddy estimate," employing acoustic measurements of velocity fields associated with the largest energy-containing scales of ocean turbulence. While the large-eddy estimate as originally proposed used vertical velocity and a vertical eddy length scale, Greene et al. chose instead to substitute a horizontal length scale for the latter. This comment argues that combining a horizontal scale for length with a vertical velocity scale produces a large-eddy estimate of the dissipation rate that is accurate only if the energy-containing eddies are isotropic, and that …

Separating Decadal Global Water Cycle Variability From Sea Level Rise, B. D. Hamlington, J. T. Reager, M.-H. Lo, K. B. Karnauskas, R. R. Leben

CCPO Publications

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both …

Climate Change Impacts On Southern Ross Sea Phytoplankton Composition, Productivity, And Export, Daniel E. Kaufman, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Walker O. Smith Jr., Eileen E. Hofmann, Michael S. Dinniman, John C. P. Hemmings

CCPO Publications

The Ross Sea, a highly productive region of the Southern Ocean, is expected to experience warming during the next century along with reduced summer sea ice concentrations and shallower mixed layers. This study investigates how these climatic changes may alter phytoplankton assemblage composition, primary productivity, and export. Glider measurements are used to force a one-dimensional biogeochemical model, which includes diatoms and both solitary and colonial forms of Phaeocystis antarctica. Model performance is evaluated with glider observations, and experiments are conducted using projections of physical drivers for mid-21st and late-21st century. These scenarios reveal a 5% increase in primary productivity …

Impacts Of Oil Spills On Altimeter Waveforms And Radar Backscatter Cross Section, Yongcun Cheng, Jean Tournadre, Xiaofeng Li, Qing Xu, Bertrand Chapron

CCPO Publications

Ocean surface films can damp short capillary-gravity waves, reduce the surface mean square slope, and induce "sigma0 blooms" in satellite altimeter data. No study has ascertained the effect of such film on altimeter measurements due to lack of film data. The availability of Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) oil cover, daily oil spill extent, and thickness data acquired during the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill accident provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of surface film on altimeter data. In this study, the Jason-1/2 passes nearest to the DWH platform are analyzed to understand the waveform distortion caused by …

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar Survey Of Subsidence In Hampton Roads, Virginia (Usa), D.P.S. Bekaert, B. D. Hamlington, B. Buzzanga, C. E. Jones

CCPO Publications

Over the past century, the Hampton Roads area of the Chesapeake Bay region has experienced one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the Atlantic coast of the United States. This rate of relative sea level rise results from a combination of land subsidence, which has long been known to be present in the region, and rising seas associated with global warming on long timescales and exacerbated by shifts in ocean dynamics on shorter timescales. An understanding of the current-day magnitude of each component is needed to create accurate projections of future relative sea level rise upon …

Editorial—The 7th International Workshop On Modeling The Ocean (Iwmo 2015), Lie-Yauw Oey, Xiao Hua Wang, Tal Ezer, Yign Noh, Andrew Mcc. Hogg

CCPO Publications

IWMO2015 was held in the pristine campus of the Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, from June 1–5, 2015. Despite the negative Coriolis spin that many of us from the northern half of the globe experienced for the first time, we were positively impressed by the vastness and beauty of Australia and the kindness and friendliness of its people. Late fall in Canberra displayed spectacular starry nights and brisk sunny days. The workshop was attended by more than 80 participants from 16 countries around the globe. Seventy papers including both oral and posters were presented, covering a very broad range of …

Editorial-The 6th International Workshop On Modeling The Ocean (Iwmo 2014), Lie-Yauw Oey, Tal Ezer, Jinyu Sheng, Fei Chai, Jianping Gan, Kevin Lamb

CCPO Publications

The 6th International Workshop on Modeling the Ocean (IWMO 2014) was held on June 23–27, 2014, at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. After three meetings in Asia (Oey et al. 2010, 2013a, b) and one in Europe (Berntsen et al. 2014), the IWMO returned to North America for the second time (since IWMO 2010 in the USA; Ezer et al. 2011). Readers are referred to https://www.dal.ca/sites/iwmo. html for more information on IWMO 2014 and http://www. ccpo.odu.edu/POMWEB /meetings.htm for information on the past meetings and future planned meetings.

Pathways And Supply Of Dissolved Iron In The Amundsen Sea (Antarctica), P. St-Laurent, P. L. Yager, R. M. Sherrell, S. E. Stammerjohn, M. S. Dinniman

CCPO Publications

Numerous coastal polynyas fringe the Antarctic continent and strongly influence the productivity of Antarctic shelf systems. Of the 46 Antarctic coastal polynyas documented in a recent study, the Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) stands out as having the highest net primary production per unit area. Incubation experiments suggest that this productivity is partly controlled by the availability of dissolved iron (dFe).As a first step toward understanding the iron supply of the ASP, we introduce four plausible sources of dFe and simulate their steady spatial distribution using conservative numerical tracers. The modeled distributions replicate important features from observations including dFe maxima at …

Development Of An Age-Frequency Distribution For Ocean Quahogs Arctica Islandica On Georges Bank, Sara M. Pace, Eric N. Powell, Roger Mann, M. Chase Long, John M. Klinck

CCPO Publications

Ocean quahogs [Arctica islandica (Linnaeus, 1769)] are the longest-lived, noncolonial animal known today, with a maximum life span exceeding 500 y. Ocean quahogs are a commercially important bivalve, inhabiting the continental shelf of the North Atlantic Basin. Although considerable information exists on the growth and physiology of A. islandica, limited information is available regarding recruitment; accordingly, sustainably managing the fishery is a challenge. To investigate long-term recruitment trends, the age of ocean quahogs from Georges Bank which were fully recruited to the commercial fishery (>80 mm shell length) was determined by analysis of annual growth lines in …

Observations And Operational Model Simulations Reveal The Impact Of Hurricane Matthew (2016) On The Gulf Stream And Coastal Sea Level, Tal Ezer, Larry P. Atkinson, Robert Tuleya

CCPO Publications

In October 7–9, 2016, Hurricane Matthew moved along the southeastern coast of the U.S., causing major flooding and significant damage, even to locations farther north well away from the storm’s winds. Various observations, such as tide gauge data, cable measurements of the Florida Current (FC) transport, satellite altimeter data and high-frequency radar data, were analyzed to evaluate the impact of the storm. The data show a dramatic decline in the FC flow and increased coastal sea level along the U.S. coast. Weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) downstream from the storm’s area contributed to high coastal sea levels farther north. …