Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- January 2017, Natalie Umphlett, Jamie Lahowetz, Bill Sorensen, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

30th anniversary......................1

Stakeholder engagement activities......................................2

Product highlights..................3

AWDN information.................4

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

Services update........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Weathering And Erosion Of Fractured Bedrock Systems, Marina I. Lebedeva, Susan L. Brantley

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We explore the contribution of fractures (joints) in controlling the rate of weathering advance for a low-porosity rock by using methods of homogenization to create averaged weathering equations. The rate of advance of the weathering front can be expressed as the same rate observed in non-fractured media (or in an individual block) divided by the volume fraction of nonfractured blocks in the fractured parent material. In the model, the parent has fractures that are filled with a more porous material that contains only inert or completely weathered material. The low-porosity rock weathers by reaction-transport processes. As observed in field systems, …

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Owens Lake Core Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

In the Owens Lake core data folder:

¹⁴C ages for cores OL84 and OL90 were reported in:

Benson, L.V., Burdett, J.W., Kashgarian, M., Lund, S.P., Phillips, F.M., and Rye, R.O., 1996, Climatic and hydrologic Oscillations in the Owens Lake basin and adjacent Sierra Nevada, California: Science, vol. 274, p. 746-749.

Benson, L.V., 1999, Records of millennial-scale climate change from the Great Basin of the Western United States: In Clark, P., Webb, R., Keigwin, L., eds., Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales, American Geophysical Union Monograph 112, p. 203-225.

Benson, L., 2003, Western Lakes: Chapter 9 in …

Paleomagnetic Secular Variation (Psv) Ages Of Wilson Crk, Plc08-1, Bl04-4, Ol90-1 And 2, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

In the paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) ages folder:

The data for OL90-1 and 2 have not been published

The data for PLC08-1 are reported in:

Benson, L.V., Smoot, J.P., Lund, S.P., Mensing, S.A., Rye, R.O., 2013. Insights from a synthesis of old and new climate-proxy data from the western Lahontan Basin for the period 48 to 11.5 ka. Quaternary International310, 62-82.

Lund, S., Benson, L., Negrini, R., Liddicoat, J., Mensing, S., 2016. A full-vector paleomagnetic secular variation record (PSV) from Pyramid Lake (Nevada) from 47-17 ka: Evidence for the successive Mono Lake and Laschamp Excursions. Earth and Planetary Sciences …

Pyramid And Winnemucca Lake Basin Carbonate Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

In the Pyramid and Winnemucca lake basin carbonate data folder:

New unpublished and previously published ¹⁴C and calibrated ages for materials in the Winnemucca Caves are reported in the table and in the references listed below the table

¹⁴C and calibrated ages for Winnemucca Lake Basin carbonates are reported in:

Benson, L.V., Hattori, E.M., Southon, J., Aleck, B., 2013. Dating North America’s oldest petroglyphs, Winnemucca Lake subbasin, Nevada. Journal of Archaeological Science 40, 4466-4476.

Tufa ⁸⁷Sr, ¹⁸O, and ¹³C data are reported in:

Benson, L.V., Smoot, J.P., Lund, S.P., Mensing, S.A., Rye, R.O., 2013. Insights …

Reconstructed Discharge For Truckee River, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Reconstructed Discharge for Truckee River

Name Date modified Time modified Size MB Extension

Reconstructed Discharge Truckee R\ Reconstructed Discharge for Truckee River.xlsx 11.11.2017 22:40:52 0.02 xlsx

Reconstructed discharge of the Truckee River was made considering losses to evaporation in all upstream reservoirs and corrected for diversion from the Derby Dam to the Newlands area. These data were never previously published.

General Comment: In most cases an age model based on ¹⁴C analyses is not included with the datasets although ones were created for the original publications. Given the general problems with ¹⁴C ages in the lakes of the …

Walker Lake Basin Data, Larry V. Benson, Steve P. Lund

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Walker Lake Basin Data

Name Date modified Time modified Size MB Extension

Walker Lake Core 84-8 isotope and age data.xls 27.01.2018 15:25:52 0.03 xls

Walker Lake core WL002 PSV age and chemical data.xlsx 09.02.2018 20:04:50 0.03 xlsx

In the Walker Lake Basin folder:

Depth, ¹⁴C age (not corrected for reservoir effect), ¹⁸O, ¹³C data for core 84-8 are reported in:

Benson, L. V., 1988, Preliminary paleolimnologic data for the Walker Lake subbasin, California and Nevada: United States Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 87-4258, 50 p. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 240: 497-507.

Depth, PSV age, TIC , ¹⁸O, …

Pyramid Lake Core Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Pyramid Lake Core Data

14C and calibrated ages for core PLC08-1.xlsx 01.03.2014 19:45:30 0.01 xlsx

14C and calibrated ages for core PLC92B.xlsx 04.03.2014 16:41:30 0.01 xlsx

14C and calibrated ages for core PLC97-3.xlsx 01.03.2014 19:50:48 0.01 xlsx

CalKa Depth TOC TIC 18O 13C for PLC97-1.xlsx 09.11.2017 20:51:22 0.04 xlsx

Depth 14CAge Corrected 14C AGE CAL Age PLC98-4.xlsx 15.11.2017 18:26:12 0.01 xlsx

Depth 180 13C TOTC TOC TIC porosity CYBP Box Core PLB98-2.xlsx 01.03.2014 20:00:46 0.01 xlsx

Depth CalAge TIC TOTC TOC 13C 18O PLC98-4.xlsx 02.03.2014 00:32:20 0.05 xlsx

Depth Equivalent Depth in PLC08-1 PSV age 180 13C TIC TOC for …

Comparison Of Acoustic Recorders And Field Observers For Monitoring Tundra Bird Communities, Skyler T. Vold, Colleen M. Handel, Lance B. Mcnew

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Acoustic recorders can be useful for studying bird populations but their efficiency and accuracy should be assessed in pertinent ecological settings before use. We investigated the utility of an acoustic recorder formonitoring abundance of tundra-breeding birds relative to point-count surveys in northwestern Alaska, USA, during 2014. Our objectives were to 1) compare numbers of birds and species detected by a field observer with those detected simultaneously by an acoustic recorder; 2) evaluate how detection probabilities for the observer and acoustic recorder varied with distance of birds from the survey point; and 3) evaluate whether avian guild-specific detection rates differed between …

The Aerosphere As A Network Connector Of Organisms And Their Diseases, Jeremy D. Ross, Eli S. Bridge, Diann J. Prosser, John Y. Takekawa

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Aeroecological processes, especially powered flight of animals, can rapidly connect biological communities across the globe. This can have profound consequences for evolutionary diversification, energy and nutrient transfers, and the spread of infectious diseases. The latter is of particular consequence for human populations, since migratory birds are known to host diseases which have a history of transmission into domestic poultry or even jumping to human hosts. In this chapter, we present a scenario under which a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strain enters North America from East Asia via postmolting waterfowl migration. We use an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the …

Compensatory Response Of Fathead Minnow Larvae Following A Pulsed In-Situ Exposure To A Seasonal Agricultural Runoff Event, Jonathan M. Ali, John Sangster, Daniel D. Snow, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt, Alan S. Kolok

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Agriculturally-dominated waterways such as those found throughout the Midwestern United States often experience seasonal pulses of agrichemical contaminants which pose a potential hazard to aquatic organisms at varying life stages. The objective of this study was to characterize the developmental plasticity of fathead minnow larvae in a natural environment subject to a seasonal episodic perturbation in the form of a complex mixture of agricultural stressors. Fathead minnow larvae were maintained at the Elkhorn River Research Station for a 28-d in situ exposure to an agrichemical pulse event.Minnow larvae were sampled after 14 and 28 days to characterize developmental plasticity through …

Changes In Arctic Climate And Central U.S. Weather Patterns Is There A Link?, Donald A. Wilhite, Kimberly C. Morrow, Martha Shulski

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Earlier snowmelt, decreasing soil moisture, decreased corn yields, increasing extreme precipitation events—these are some of the weather effects currently observed in the central United States that might well have their origin in the rapidly warming Arctic. These and other implications of Arctic warming were among the topics discussed at a fall 2015 workshop, Implications of a Changing Arctic on Water Resources and Agriculture in the Central U.S (Wilhite and Morrow 2016).

The United States assumed chairmanship of the Arctic Council in April 2015, making the workshop topic timely. Given the importance of the Midwest and Great Plains region as a …

Evaluation Of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates And Application To Monitor Meteorological Drought For The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Yared Bayissa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew B. Demisse, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Ethiopia that significantly impacts the socioeconomic sector and various components of the environment. The overarching goal of this study is to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought using a satellite-derived rainfall product for the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). The satellite rainfall product used in this study was selected through evaluation of five high-resolution products (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) v2.0, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT) v2.0, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Africa Rainfall Estimate …

Joint Hierarchical Models For Sparsely Sampled High-Dimensional Lidar And Forest Variables, Andrew O. Finley, Sudipto Banerjee, Yuzhen Zhou, Bruce D. Cook, Chad Babcock

United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Publications

Recent advancements in remote sensing technology, specifically Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) sensors, provide the data needed to quantify forest characteristics at a fine spatial resolution over large geographic domains. From an inferential standpoint, there is interest in prediction and interpolation of the often sparsely sampled and spatially misaligned LiDAR signals and forest variables. We propose a fully process-based Bayesian hierarchical model for above ground biomass (AGB) and LiDAR signals. The processbased framework offers richness in inferential capabilities, e.g., inference on the entire underlying processes instead of estimates only at pre-specified points. Key challenges we obviate include misalignment between the …

Multiple Drivers Of Seasonal Change In Pri: Implications For Photosynthesis 2. Stand Level, Anatoly A. Gitelson, John A. Gamon, Alexei E. Solovchenko

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

The goal of this study was to explore the relationships between stand-level photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and canopy structure/ pigment pools, as well as light use efficiency (LUE) of photosynthetically active vegetation focusing on seasonal or ontogenetic time frames. PRI was originally designed as a means of assessing the xanthophyll cycle and LUE over short (e.g. diurnal) time frames, and few studies have explored the drivers of PRI over longer, seasonal time frames, particularly in crops having different photosynthetic pathways or canopy structures. Consequently, our purpose was to understand and quantify the drivers of PRI responses over seasonal time scales …

Review Of A Chorus Of Cranes: The Cranes Of North America And The World By Paul A. Johnsgard, Aaron T. Pearse

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Cranes (Gruidae) are widely distributed throughout the world, have lived on Earth for several million years, and currently reside on five continents. Archaeological evidence and historical references suggest that humans have interacted with and been captivated by cranes for many thousands of years (e.g., Leslie 1988, Muellner 1990). A glimpse of our reverence for these birds can be found in A Chorus of Cranes by Paul A. Johnsgard, with photographs by Thomas D. Mangelsen. Many species of cranes are currently identified as threatened or endangered, and their future will likely rest in the hands of humans; this book presents their …

Variation In Δ15N And Δ13C Values Of Forages For Arctic Caribou: Effects Of Location, Phenology And Simulated Digestion, Lindsay L. Vansomeren, Perry S. Barboza, David D. Gustine, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

RATIONALE: The use of stable isotopes for dietary estimates of wildlife assumes that there are consistent differences in isotopic ratios among diet items, and that the differences in these ratios between the diet item and the animal tissues (i.e., fractionation) are predictable. However, variation in isotopic ratios and fractionation of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values among locations, seasons, and forages are poorly described for arctic herbivores especially migratory species such as caribou (Rangifer tarandus).

METHODS: We measured the δ¹³Cand δ¹⁵N values of seven species of forage growing along a 200-km …

Assessment Of Frequency And Duration Of Point Counts When Surveying For Golden Eagle Presence, Ben R. Skipper, Clint W. Boal, Jo-Szu Tsai, Mark R. Fuller

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We assessed the utility of the recommended golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) survey methodology in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2013 Eagle Conservation Plan Guidance. We conducted 800-m radius, 1-hr point-count surveys broken into 20-min segments, during 2 sampling periods in 3 areas within the Intermountain West of the United States over 2 consecutive breeding seasons during 2012 and 2013. Our goal was to measure the influence of different survey time intervals and sampling periods on detectability and use estimates of golden eagles among different locations. Our results suggest that a less intensive effort (i.e., survey duration shorter …

Flood Effects Provide Evidence Of An Alternate Stable State From Dam Management On The Upper Missouri River, K. Skalak, A. Benthem, C. Hupp, E. Schenk, J. Galloway, R. Nustad

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We examine how historic flooding in 2011 affected the geomorphic adjustments created by dam regulation along the approximately 120 km free flowing reach of the Upper Missouri River bounded upstream by the Garrison Dam (1953) and downstream by Lake Oahe Reservoir (1959) near the City of Bismarck, ND, USA. The largest flood since dam regulation occurred in 2011. Flood releases from the Garrison Dam began in May 2011 and lasted until October, peaking with a flow of more than 4200m³ s^-1. Channel cross-section data and aerial imagery before and after the flood were compared with historic rates …

Micronuclei And Other Erythrocyte Nuclear Abnormalities In Fishes From The Great Lakes Basin,Usa, Ryan P. Braham, Vicki S. Blazer, Cassidy H. Shaw, Patricia M. Mazik

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Biological markers (biomarkers) sensitive to genotoxic and mutagenic contamination in fishes are widely used to identify exposure effects in aquatic environments. The micronucleus assay was incorporated into a suite of indicators to assess exposure to genotoxic and mutagenic contamination at five Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs), as well as one non-AOC (reference) site. The assay allowed enumeration of micronuclei as well as other nuclear abnormalities for both site and species comparisons. Erythrocyte abnormality data was also compared to skin and liver tumor prevalence and hepatic transcript abundance. Erythrocyte abnormalities were observed at all sites with variable occurrence and severity …

Challenges For Creating A Site-Specific Groundwater-Use Record For The Ozark Plateaus Aquifer System (Central Usa) From 1900 To 2010, Katherine J. Knierim, Anna M. Nottmeier, Scott Worland, Drew A. Westerman, Brian R. Clark

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Hydrologic budgets to determine groundwater availability are important tools for water-resource managers. One challenging component for developing hydrologic budgets is quantifying water use through time because historical and site-specific water-use data can be sparse or poorly documented. This research developed a groundwater-use record for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (central USA) from 1900 to 2010 that related county-level aggregated water-use data to site-specific well locations and aquifer units. A simple population-based linear model, constrained to 0 million liters per day in 1900, provided the best means to extrapolate groundwater-withdrawal rates pre-1950s when there was a paucity of water-use data. To …

Habitat Mosaics And Path Analysis Can Improve Biological Conservation Of Aquatic Biodiversity In Ecosystems With Low-Head Dams, Sean M. Hitchman, Martha E. Mather, Joseph M. Smith, Jane S. Fencl

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Conserving native biodiversity depends on restoring functional habitats in the face of human-induced disturbances. Low-head dams are a ubiquitous human impact that degrades aquatic ecosystems worldwide. To improve our understanding of how low-head dams impact habitat and associated biodiversity, our research examined complex interactions among three spheres of the total environment. i.e., how low-head dams (anthroposphere) affect aquatic habitat (hydrosphere), and native biodiversity (biosphere) in streams and rivers. Creation of lake-like habitats upstream of low-head dams is a well-documented major impact of dams. Alterations downstream of low head dams also have important consequences, but …

Temporal Shift Of Sea Turtle Nest Sites In An Eroding Barrier Island Beach, Ikuko Fujisaki, Margaret Lamont, Ray Carthy

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Shoreline changes affect functionality of a sandy beach as a wildlife habitat and coastal erosion is among the primary causes of the changes. We examined temporal shifts in locations where loggerheads placed nests in relation to coastal erosion along a barrier island beach in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We first confirmed consistency in long-term (1855–2001), short-term (1976–2001), and more recent (2002–2012) shoreline change rates in two adjacent beach sections, one historically eroding (west beach) and the other accreting (east beach). The mean annual shoreline change rate in the two sections was significantly different in all time periods. The recent …

Degradation Of Crude 4‑Mchm (4-Methylcyclohexanemethanol) In Sediments From Elk River, West Virginia, Isabelle M. Cozzarelli, Denise M. Akob, Mary Jo Baedecker, Tracey Spencer, Jeanne Jaeschke, Darren S. Dunlap, Adam C. Mumford, Amisha T, Poret-Peterson, Douglas B. Chambers

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

In January 2014, approximately 37 800 L of crude 4-methylcyclohexanemethanol (crude MCHM) spilled into the Elk River, West Virginia. To understand the long-term fate of 4-MCHM, we conducted experiments under environmentally relevant conditions to assess the potential for the 2 primary compounds in crude MCHM (1) to undergo biodegradation and (2) for sediments to serve as a long-term source of 4-MCHM. We developed a solid phase microextraction (SPME) method to quantify the cis- and transisomers of 4-MCHM. Autoclaved Elk River sediment slurries sorbed 17.5% of cis-4-MCHM and 31% of trans-4-MCHM from water during the 2-week experiment. …

Design Tradeoffs In Long-Term Research For Stream Salamanders, Adrianne B. Brand, Evan H. Campbell Grant

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Long-term research programs can benefit from early and periodic evaluation of their ability to meet stated objectives. In particular, consideration of the spatial allocation of effort is key. We sampled 4 species of stream salamanders intensively for 2 years (2010–2011) in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA to evaluate alternative distributions of sampling locations within stream networks, and then evaluated via simulation the ability of multiple survey designs to detect declines in occupancy and to estimate dynamic parameters (colonization, extinction) over 5 years for 2 species. We expected that fine scale microhabitat variables (e.g., cobble, detritus) …

Floristic Quality Index And Forested Floristic Quality Index: Assessment Tools For Restoration Projects And Monitoring Sites In Coastal Louisiana, Kari F. Cretini, William B. Wood, Jenneke M. Visser, Ken W. Krauss, Leigh Anne Sharp, Gregory D. Steyer, Gary P. Shaffer, Sarai C. Piazza

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

In 2003, the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) program was established in coastal Louisiana marshes and swamps to assess the effectiveness of individual coastal restoration projects and the cumulative effects of multiple projects at regional and coastwide scales (Steyer et al., 2003). In order to make these assessments, analytical teams were assembled for each of the primary data types sampled under theCRMS program, including vegetation, hydrology, landscape, and soils. These teams consisted of scientists and support staff from the US Geological Survey and other federal agencies, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana, and university academics. Each team was …