Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- July 2018, Natalie Umphlett, Emily Brown, Crystal J. Stiles

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Staff spotlight...........................1

GRAINEX project......................2

Product highlights..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

GIS Portal....................................4

Regional news..........................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Droughtscape, Summer 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

From the director

Drought expands and intensifies

Dry down fuels fires

Tweeting #drought18

MOISST and NSMN

Caribbean planning progress

Drought observer network study

MENA teams report progress

NDMC global outreach

Climate hub workshop

On the horizon

Isotopic And Geochemical Analysis Of Nitrate Contaminated Groundwater In Edgar, Nebraska, Nathan Roddy

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

High nitrate concentrations in the groundwater beneath Edgar, Nebraska have been measured for well over a decade, exceeding the EPA’s MCL of 10 mg-N/L. Investigating the isotopic signature of nitrate and groundwater have determined the likely source(s) of contamination. Apparent seasonal changes exists in nitrate concentration, isotope ratios, and geochemistry, suggesting that sources and flow paths change as a result of irrigation. Samples collected in December and May had very similar nitrate concentrations (average value of 13.7 mg-N/L) and isotopic ratios (δ¹⁵N 4.46‰ and δ¹⁸O-NO₃ 20.21‰), suggesting synthetic nitrate fertilizers are the major source of …

Numerical Modeling Of The Effects Of Land Use Change And Irrigation On Streamflow Depletion Of Frenchman Creek, Nebraska, Moussa Guira

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

A three-dimensional Control Volume Finite Difference-based numerical groundwater flow model was constructed to assess the effects of agricultural irrigation and land use change on streamflow depletion. The study area is Frenchman Creek basin located in southwestern corner of the State of Nebraska, USA. This area was subject to an increased proliferation of groundwater abstraction for agricultural purposes since industrial revolution. It has also been subject to land use change from native rangeland to dry and irrigated cropland. The groundwater flow model was spatially discretized using Voronoi cells in unstructured grid built with the USGS MODFLOW-6. Temporal discretization defined 151 time …

Evaluating 21st Century Climate Change For Bolivia: A Comprehensive Dynamical Downscaling Strategy Using The Wrf Regional Climate Model, Azar Mohammad Abadi

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Bolivia is a low-latitude, developing country at grave risk for the effects of human-induced climate changes. This means evaluating the consequences of projected future climate changes is of significant importance. Unfortunately, the complex topography and high elevation of much of the country pose particular challenges, as these effects cannot be suitably resolved at the approximately 100 km spatial resolution of current global climate models (GCM). Therefore, a comprehensive suite of high-resolution climate change simulations was made focused on Bolivia are run using three different GCMs with three different emission scenarios for each to drive the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) …

Development Of The Nebraska Department Of Transportation Winter Severity Index, Mark R. Anderson, Behzad Esmaeili, Curtis L. Walker, Dylan Steinkruger, Sogand Hasanzadeh, Pouya Gholizadeh, Bac Dao

Nebraska Department of Transportation: Research Reports

Adverse weather conditions are responsible for millions of vehicular crashes, thousands of vehicular deaths and billions of dollars in economic and congestion costs. Many transportation agencies utilize a performance or mobility metric to assess how well they are maintaining road access. This research focuses on the development of a winter severity index for the State of Nebraska (NEWINS). NEWINS is an event-driven index that was derived for the Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT) and its districts across the state. The NEWINS framework includes a categorical storm classification framework and climatological aspect to capture atmospheric conditions more accurately across the diverse …

Tracking Drought Perspectives: A Rural Case Study Of Transformations Following An Invisible Hazard, Theresa Jedd, Deborah Bathke, Duane Gill, Bimal Paul, Nicole Wall, Tonya Bernadt, Jacob Peter, Anthony Mucia, Milan Wall

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Rural towns are especially susceptible to the effects of drought because their economies are dependent on natural resources. However, they are also resilient in many ways to natural hazards because they are rich in civic engagement and social capital. Because of the diverse nature of drought’s impacts, understanding its complex dynamics and its effects requires a multidisciplinary approach. To study these dynamics, this research combines appreciative inquiry, the Community Capitals Framework, and a range of climatological monitoring data to assess the 2012–14 Great Plains drought’s effect on McCook, Nebraska. Community coping measures, such as water-use reduction and public health programs, …

Umphlett Qci June 2018, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature Anomalies

Precipitation Anomalies

Water Resources

Agriculture

Temperature

Precipitation

Nonbreeding Duck Use At Central Flyway National Wildlife Refuges, Kent Andersson, Craig A. Davis, Grant Harris, David A. Haukos

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Within the U.S. portion of the Central Flyway, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages waterfowl on numerous individual units (i.e., Refuges) within the National Wildlife Refuge System. Presently, the extent of waterfowl use that Refuges receive and the contribution of Refuges to waterfowl populations (i.e., the proportion of the Central Flyway population registered at each Refuge) remain unassessed. Such an evaluation would help determine to what extent Refuges support waterfowl relative to stated targets, aid in identifying species requiring management attention, inform management targets, and improve fiscal efficiencies. Using historic monitoring data (1954–2008), we performed this assessment for 23 …

Evaluation Of Potential Translocation Sites For An Imperiled Cyprinid, The Hornyhead Chub, Brian T. Hickerson, Annika W. Walters

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Translocation of isolated species into suitable habitats may help to secure vulnerable, geographically limited species. Due to the decline of Wyoming Hornyhead Chub Nocomis biguttatus, conservation actions, such as the translocation of populations within the plausible historical range, are being considered to improve population redundancy and resiliency to disturbance events. Translocation of Wyoming Hornyhead Chub must be rigorously evaluated because a hatchery stock does not exist, so all fish used in translocations will come from the wild population. We present an approach to identify the best available translocation sites prior to translocation efforts taking place. We evaluated fish community composition …

Macrobenthic Infaunal Communities Associated With Deep‐Sea Hydrocarbon Seeps In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico, Travis W. Washburn, Amanda W. J. Demopoulos, Paul A. Montagna

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

There are thousands of seeps in the deep ocean worldwide; however, many questions remain about their contributions to global biodiversity and the surrounding deep‐sea environment. In addition to being globally distributed, seeps provide several benefits to humans such as unique habitats, organisms with novel genes, and carbon regulation. The purpose of this study is to determine whether there are unique seep macrobenthic assemblages, by comparing seep and nonseep environments, different seep habitats, and seeps at different depths and locations. Infaunal community composition, diversity, and abundance were examined between seep and nonseep background environments and among three seep habitats (i.e., microbial …

Organochlorine Chemical Residues In Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis Cardinalis) Eggs From Greater Washington, Dc Usa, Christopher J. Schmitt, Kathy E. Echols, Paul H. Peterman, Carl E. Orazio, K. Christiana Grim, Shirlee Tan, Nora E. Diggs, Peter P. Marra

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Northern Cardinal eggs from six neighborhoods near Washington DC were analyzed for organochlorine pesticides and PCBs. All compounds were detected more frequently and at higher concentrations in more heavily urbanized neighborhoods. DDT (mostly as p,pʹ-DDE) was detected in all neighborhoods. p,pʹ-DDT was typically 0.5‒16 ng/g (ww) in most suburban neighborhoods but was not detected (< 0.1 ng/g) in more rural areas; however, p,pʹ-DDT was 127‒1130 ng/g in eggs from two suburban Maryland nests and comprised 65.7% of total p,pʹ-DDT isomers in the most contaminated sample, indicating recent exposure to un-weathered DDT. Total chlordane (sum of 5 compounds) was 2‒70 ng/g; concentrations were greatest in older suburban neighborhoods. Total PCB (sum of detected congeners) was < 5‒21 ng/g. Congener patterns were similar in all neighborhoods and resembled those typical of weathered mixtures. Results indicate that wildlife remains exposed to low concentrations of legacy contaminants in suburban neighborhoods and that cardinal eggs can be used to monitor local- ized contamination.

Smap Soil Moisture Change As An Indicator Of Drought Conditions, Rajasekaran Eswar, Narendra N. Das, Calvin Christian Poulsen, Ali Behrangi, John Swigart, Mark D. Svoboda, Dara Entekhabi, Simon Yueh, Bradley Doorn, Jared Entin

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Soil moisture is considered a key variable in drought analysis. The soil moisture dynamics given by the change in soil moisture between two time periods can provide information on the intensification or improvement of drought conditions. The aim of this work is to analyze how the soil moisture dynamics respond to changes in drought conditions over multiple time intervals. The change in soil moisture estimated from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite observations was compared with the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicated that the …

Adam J. Liska: Curriculum Vitae, Adam Liska

Adam Liska Papers

Associate Professor, George Dempster Smith Chair of Industrial Ecology, Departments of Biological Systems Engineering and Agronomy & Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln 236 L.W. Chase Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0726, Ph: (402) 472-8744, e-mail: [email protected]

Ph.D. 2003 Biology (magna cum laude), Max Planck Institute of Molecular Cell Biology & Genetics, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany

Road Weather Impact Based Decision Support Applications: Developing A Department Of Transportation Winter Severity Index, Curtis Louis Walker

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Adverse weather conditions are responsible for millions of vehicular crashes, thousands of vehicular deaths and billions of dollars in economic and congestion costs. Many transportation agencies utilize a performance or mobility metric to assess how well they are maintaining road access. This research focuses on the development of a winter severity index for the State of Nebraska (NEWINS). NEWINS is an event-driven index that was derived for the Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT) and its districts across the state. The NEWINS framework includes a categorical storm classification framework and climatological aspect to capture atmospheric conditions more accurately across diverse spatial …

Neogene Stratigraphy And Paleoenvironments In The Lauca Basin Of Northern Chile, Amanda Jones

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This thesis examines a late Miocene to Pliocene sedimentary succession in the Lauca Basin, a topographically isolated, fluvio-lacustrine basin in the northern Chilean Altiplano. A sedimentary section within the Lauca Basin, composed of Lauca Formation sediments, was investigated using stratigraphic and petrographic analyses to define the Miocene to Pliocene paleoenvironmental history of the region. Geochronologic results indicate the section ranges in age from approximately 5.57 +/- 0.20 Ma to 5.44 +/- 0.16 Ma. The sedimentology of 36 samples was described, and twelve samples were analyzed petrographically. Five lithofacies were characterized: laminated mudstone (Fl), volcaniclastic mudstone (Fv), carbonate (C), evaporite (E), …

The Impact Of Past Experience With Tornadoes On Future Decisions, Emily Paltz, Michael Hayes

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

Tornadoes are a dangerous threat to public safety. The National Weather Service (NWS), therefore, advises the public to go to an interior room on the lowest level of their houses when a tornado warning is issued for their area. As the NWS Central Region Service Assessment of the Joplin, Missouri Tornado published in July 2011 reveals, however, this is often not the first action taken after learning that there is danger of being hit by a tornado. Rather, people need to seek confirmation from more than one source before following the recommended action. The goal of this research project is …

Downscaling Africa’S Drought Forecasts Through Integration Of Indigenous And Scientific Drought Forecasts Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Muthoni Masinde, Mwanjele Mwagha, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In the wake of increased drought occurrences being witnessed in Sub-Saharan Africa, more localized and contextualized drought mitigation strategies are on the agendas of many researchers and policy makers in the region. The integration of indigenous knowledge on droughts with seasonal climate forecasts is one such strategy. The main challenge facing this integration, however, is the formal representation of highly-structured and holistic indigenous knowledge. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping can address this challenge. Indigenous knowledge on droughts from five communities was modeled and represented using fuzzy cognitive maps. Maps from one of these …

Documentation Of Particle-Size Analyzer Time Series, And Discrete Suspended-Sediment And Bed-Sediment Sample Data Collection, Niobrara River Near Spencer, Nebraska, October 2014, Nathaniel J. Schaepe, Anthony M. Coleman, Ronald B. Zelt

United States Geological Survey: Water Reports and Publications

Document abstract

The Ubited States Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the United States Army Corps of Engineers, monitored a sediment release by Nebraska Public Power District from Spencer Dam located on the Niobrara River near Spencer, Nebraska, during the fall of 2014. The accumulated sediment behind Spencer Dam ordinarily is released semiannually; however, the spring 2014 release was postponed until the fall. Because of the postponement, the scheduled fall sediment release would consist of a larger volume of sediment. The larger than normal sediment release expected in fall 2014 provided an opportunity for the USGS and US Army Corps …

Validation Of New Satellite Rainfall Products Over The Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Getachew Tesfaye Ayehu, Tsegaye Tadesse, Berhan Gessesse, Tufa Dinku

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Accurate measurement of rainfall is vital to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation at various scales. However, the conventional rain gauge observations in many parts of the world such as Ethiopia are sparse and unevenly distributed. An alternative to traditional rain gauge observations could be satellite-based rainfall estimates. Satellite rainfall estimates could be used as a sole product (e.g., in areas with no (or poor) ground observations) or through integrating with rain gauge measurements. In this study, the potential of a newly available Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall product has been evaluated in comparison …

T.D.A. Cockerell (1866–1948) Of The University Of Colorado: His Contributions To The Natural History Of The California Islands And The Establishment Of Channel Islands National Monument, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Theodore Dru Alison Cockerell was a naturalist at the University of Colorado from 1904 to 1947 and studied botany, zoology, and paleontology in North and South America, Asia, Australia, Africa, and Europe. In the latter part of his career, he studied the California islands and published many papers on their natural history, 16 of them in four years (1937–1940). He made important contributions to the natural history of the islands in four distinct ways: entomology of the islands, including identification of a number of new species of bees; discovery of fossil marine invertebrate faunas and recognition that the zoogeography of …

The Prairie Post Quarterly Newsletter Of The High Plains Regional Climate Center- April 2018, Natalie Umphlett, Crystal J. Stiles, Shellie Hanneman

Prairie Post: Quarterly Newsletter of the High Plains Regional Climate Center

Inside this issue:

Message from the interim director........................................1

Weather photo of the quarter.........................................1

Tribal climate summaries......2

Product highlights..................3

Update on regional climate conditions..................................4

State Climate Extremes Committee.................................4

Update on research................5

Recent and upcoming travel and activities.............................6

Primary Atmospheric Drivers Of Pluvial Years In The United States Great Plains, Paul Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Jason C. Furtado, Xiangming Xiao

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies …

Droughtscape, Spring 2018, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought shifts to south in beginning of 2018

Ag records impacts; strong fire season forecast

Drought maps show regional and river forecast areas

Greenness indicator could save lives in Africa

NDMC on a global playing field

Visitors from Korea tap drought resources, experts

Svoboda named to United Nations advisory group

Responding to drought in the Southern Plains

Crops, cattle and climatology in the Upper Niobrara

Connecting locally for global change

Construction Of A Pen-Scale Methane Collection System And Dietary Strategies For Methane Mitigation From Growing And Finishing Cattle, Thomas M. Winders

Department of Animal Science: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Methane production from ruminants has been researched for many years because it has a global warming potential 25x that of carbon dioxide, meaning that mitigating smaller amounts of methane can have a large environmental impact. Research has focused on individual animal methane measurements, but the literature lack in industry-scale measurements. For that reason, the methane barn was built to evaluate dietary strategies on pens of cattle rather than on individual animals. In order to test the methane barn capabilities, an experiment designed to produce differences in methane production was conducted. Cattle received the same growing diet, at either ad-libitum access …

Geochemistry And Mineralogy Of Late Quaternary Loess In The Upper Mississippi River Valley, Usa: Provenance And Correlation With Laurentide Ice Sheet History, Daniel R. Muhs, E. Arthur Bettis Iii, Gary L. Skipp

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The midcontinent of North America contains some of the thickest and most extensive last-glacial loess deposits in the world, known as Peoria Loess. Peoria Loess of the upper Mississippi River valley region is thought to have had temporally varying glaciogenic sources resulting from inputs of sediment to the Mississippi River from different lobes of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Here, we explore a new method of determining loess provenance using K/Rb and K/Ba values (in K-feldspars and micas) in loess from a number of different regions in North America. Results indicate that K/Rb and K/Ba values can distinguish loess originating from …

Precipitation Extremes In Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios Over The Greater Horn Of Africa, Andualem Shiferaw, Tsegaye Tadesse, Clinton M. Rowe, Robert Oglesby

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

This study first assesses the performance of regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in reproducing observed extreme precipitation indices over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region during 1989–2005. The study then assesses projected changes in these extremes during 2069–2098 compared to 1976–2005. The Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations are made using two RCMs, with large-scale forcing from four CMIP5 Global limate Models(GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of moderate precipitation extreme indices (MPEI). Pattern correlation coefficients between simulated and observed MPEI …

Irrigated Agriculture And Future Climate Change Effects On Groundwater Recharge, Northern High Plains Aquifer, Usa, Zachary H. Lauffenburger, Jason J. Gurdak, Chris Hobza, Duane Woodward

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding the controls of agriculture and climate change on recharge rates is critically important to develop appropriate sustainable management plans for groundwater resources and coupled irrigated agricultural systems. In this study, several physical (total potential (ψT) time series) and chemical tracer and dating (3H, Cl−, Br−, CFCs, SF6, and 3H/3He) methods were used to quantify diffuse recharge rates beneath two rangeland sites and irrigation recharge rates beneath two irrigated corn sites along an east-west (wet-dry) transect of the northern High Plains aquifer, Platte River Basin, central Nebraska. The field-based recharge estimates and historical climate were used to calibrate site-specific Hydrus-1D …

Umphlett Qci March 2018, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Enhanced Fire Activity During Winter

Utilities Impacted by Extreme Cold

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Winter Drought Conditions and Outlook

Evaluation Of Nocturnal Convective Precipitation Over The Great Plains Using Reanalysis Data And A Wrf-Based Regional Climate Model, Xu Deng

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study aims to analyze what processes are mainly responsible for nocturnal convective precipitation during the 1991-2000 period for May-June-July over the Great Plains. Firstly, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) coupled with the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis data, the simulations of the diurnal cycles of LLJ and the convective precipitation are examined. Then, the LLJ-related moisture transport is evaluated since the moisture supply is critical for the development of the heavy rainfall. Results show that the WRF model fails to simulate the nocturnal peak rainfall shown in …