Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Drought Monitoring Using Data Mining Techniques: A Case Study For Nebraska, Usa, Tsegaye Tadesse, Donald A. Wilhite, Sherri K. Harms, Michael J. Hayes, Steve Goddard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought has an impact on many aspects of society. To help decision makers reduce the impacts of drought, it is important to improve our understanding of the characteristics and relationships of atmospheric and oceanic parameters that cause drought. In this study, the use of data mining techniques is introduced to find associations between drought and several oceanic and climatic indices that could help users in making knowledgeable decisions about drought responses before the drought actually occurs. Data mining techniques enable users to search for hidden patterns and find association rules for target data sets such as drought episodes. These techniques …

An Association Of Benthic Foraminifera And Gypsum In Holocene Sediments Of Estuarine Chesapeake Bay, Usa, John Cann, Thomas Cronin

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Two cores of Holocene sediments recovered from the Cape Charles Channel of Chesapeake Bay yielded radiocarbon ages of about 6.8 to 5.8 ka for the lower intervals. Fossil foraminifera preserved in these lower sediments are dominated by species of Elphidium, which make up about 90% of the assemblage throughout, and probably signify deposition in hypersaline waters. Buccella frigida and Ammonia beccarii are the only other species commonly present. Hypersalinity of bottom waters seems to have been maintained by water-density stratification in a basin-like section of the channel. In core PTXT -4-P-I transition to modem Chesapeake conditions, in which numbers …

Grassland Vegetation And Bird Communities In The Southern Great Plains Of North America, Robert N. Chapman, David M. Engle, Ronald E. Masters, David M. Leslie Jr.

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Structure and composition of vegetation and abundance of breeding birds in grasslands seeded to Old World bluestem (Bothriochloa ischmaeum) were compared to native mixed prairie in the southern Great Plains of North America. Abundance of birds was determined using fixed-radius point counts. Detrended correspondence analysis was used to compare plant community composition and canonical correspondence analysis was used to examine the relationships between plant species composition and vegetation structure with the bird community. Plant species composition differed distinctly between seeded grassland and native mixed prairie, but the differences were not reflected in habitat structure, bird community composition, or …

Recent Advances In Drought Monitoring, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes, Donald A. Wilhite, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent widespread, severe, and long-lasting droughts across North America have heightened awareness of and interest in how to better monitor drought and its impacts. Since its inception in 1999, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) have partnered to produce the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droug ht.unl.edu/m onitor/), a comprehensive drought assessment product based on a simple 5- category severity classification. On the heels of its widespread acceptance and usage, the NCDC, CPC, USDA, NDMC and scientists from Canada and Mexico have worked …

A Geospatial Decision Support System For Drought Risk Management, Steve Goddard, Jitender Deogun, Sherri K. Harms, Michael J. Hayes, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Stephen Reichenbach, Peter Revesz, W. J. Waltman, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought affects virtually all regions of the world and results in significant economic, social, and environmental impacts. The Federal Emergency Management Agency estimates annual drought-related losses in the United States at $6-8 billion, which is more than any other natural hazard. Congress enacted the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000 to encourage the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Risk Management Agency (RMA) and farmers to be more proactive in managing drought risk. Through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Digital Government program, the USDA RMA is working with the University of Nebraska−Lincoln Computer Science and Engineering (CSE) Department, National Drought …

Mudfish On The Menu? Rise Of The Much-Maligned Bowfin, Ken Sulak

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Cajuns call it “choupique” (say “shoe-pick”), from its Choctaw name. Elsewhere, it’s the dogfish, blackfish, grindle, cottonfish, or cypress trout. Its official common name is “Bowfin” (Amia calva)1. But to most anglers, this is the “mudfish,” a strange, unusual, and much-maligned fish, most everywhere considered a useless trash fish. One look and the words relict, prehistoric, primitive, and living fossil come to mind. Indeed, the bowfin is the last of its line, the sole-surviving species of a very ancient group of fishes. Its predecessors flourished in the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods during the Mesozoic (= Middle-Animal) Era, a …

Sources Of Ancient Maize Found In Chacoan Great Houses, Larry Benson

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Between the 9th and 12th centuries A.D., Chaco Canyon, located near the middle of the high-desert San Juan Basin of north-central New Mexico (fig. 1), was the focus of an unprecedented construction effort by pre-Columbian Native Americans. It has been estimated that from 2,000 to 6,000 people occupied Chaco Canyon during its heyday (Windes, 1984; Drager, 1976). One indication of Chaco’s regional importance is a network of roads that linked Chaco Canyon with other great houses and communities spread throughout a region covering at least 60,000 km2 (fig. 2). At the height of its cultural florescence in the 11th century, …

Genetic Identification Of Spotted Owls, Barred Owls, And Their Hybrids: Legal Implications Of Hybrid Identity, Susan M. Haig, Thomas D. Mullins, Eric D. Forsman, Pepper W. Trail, Liv Wennerberg

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Recent population expansion of Barred Owls (Strix varia) into western North America has led to concern that they may compete with and further harm the Northern Spotted Owl (S. occidentalis caurina), which is already listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Because they hybridize, there is a legal need under the ESA for forensic identification of both species and their hybrids. We used mitochondrial control-region DNA and amplified fragment-length polymorphism (AFLP) analyses to assess maternal and biparental gene flow in this hybridization process. Mitochondrial DNA sequences (524 base pairs) indicated large divergence between …

Subspecific Relationships And Genetic Structure In The Spotted Owl, Susan M. Haig, Thomas D. Mullins, Eric D. Forsman

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Hierarchical genetic structure was examined in the three geographically-defined subspecies of spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) to define relationships among subspecies and quantify variation within and among regional and local populations. Sequences (522 bp) from domains I and II of the mitochondrial control region were analyzed for 213 individuals from 30 local breeding areas. Results confirmed significant differences between northern spotted owls and the other traditional geographically defined subspecies but did not provide support for subspecific level differences between California and Mexican spotted owls. Divergence times among subspecies estimated with a 936 bp portion of the cytochrome b gene …

A Holocene Pollen Record Of Persistent Droughts From Pyramid Lake, Nevada, Usa, Scott A. Mensing, Larry Benson, Michaele Kashgarian, Steve Lund

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Pollen and algae microfossils preserved in sediments from Pyramid Lake, Nevada, provide evidence for periods of persistent drought during the Holocene age. We analyzed one hundred nineteen 1-cm-thick samples for pollen and algae from a set of cores that span the past 7630 years. The early middle Holocene, 7600 to 6300 cal yr B.P., was found to be the driest period, although it included one short but intense wet phase. We suggest that Lake Tahoe was below its rim for most of this period, greatly reducing the volume and depth of Pyramid Lake. Middle Holocene aridity eased between 5000 and …

Quaternary Sea-Level History Of The United States, Daniel R. Muhs, John F. Wehmiller, Kathleen R. Simmons, Linda L. York

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

In the past 30 years, there have been tremendous advances in our understanding of Quaternary sea-level history, due directly to developments in Quaternary dating methods, particularly uranium-series disequilibrium and amino acid racemization. Another reason for this progress is that coastline history can now be tied to the oxygen-isotope record of foraminifera in deep-sea cores. Furthermore, both records have been linked to climate change on the scale of glacial-interglacial cycles that are thought to be forced by changes in Earth-Sun geometry, or “orbital forcing” (Milankovitch, 1941).

Ancient Maize From Chacoan Great Houses: Where Was It Grown?, Larry Benson, Linda Cordell, Kirk Vincent, Howard E. Taylor, John Stein, G. Lang Farmer, U.S. Geological Survey

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

In this article, we compare chemical (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and elemental) analyses of archaeological maize from dated contexts within Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, to potential agricultural sites on the periphery of the San Juan Basin. The oldest maize analyzed from Pueblo Bonito probably was grown in an area located 80 km to the west at the base of the Chuska Mountains. The youngest maize came from the San Juan or Animas river floodplains 90 km to the north. This article demonstrates that maize, a dietary staple of southwestern Native Americans, was transported over considerable distances in …

Mid-Holocene Climates Of The Americas: A Dynamical Response To Changed Seasonality, S. P. Harrison, J. E. Kutzbach, Z. Liu, P. J. Bartlein, B. Otto-Bliesner, Daniel R. Muhs, I. C. Prentice, R. S. Thompson

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Abstract Simulations of the climatic response to mid- Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean–atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northernmost South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases …

Late-Holocene Climate And Ecosystem History From Chesapeake Bay Sediment Cores, Usa, Debra A. Willard, Thomas M. Cronin, Stacey Verardo

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Palaeoclimate records from late-Holocene sediments in Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the USA, provide evidence that both decadal to centennial climate variability and European colonization had severe impacts on the watershed and estuary. Using pollen and dinoflagellate cysts as proxies for mid-Atlantic regional precipitation, estuarine salinity and dissolved oxygen (DO) during the last 2300 years, we identified four dry intervals, centred on ad 50 (P1/D1), ad 1000 (P2/D2), ad 1400 (P3) and ad 1600 (P4). Two centennial-scale events, P1/D1 and P2/D2, altered forest composition and led to increased salinity and DO levels in the estuary. Intervals P3 and P4 …

Calibration Of Remotely Sensed, Coarse Resolution Ndvi To Co2 Fluxes In A Sagebrush–Steppe Ecosystem, Bruce K. Wylie, Douglas A. Johnson, Emilio Laca, Nicanor Z. Saliendra, Tagir G. Gilmanov, Bradley C. Reed, Larry L. Tieszen, Bruce B. Worstell

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon flux can be partitioned into gross primary productivity (GPP) and respiration (R). The contribution of remote sensing and modeling holds the potential to predict these components and map them spatially and temporally. This has obvious utility to quantify carbon sink and source relationships and to identify improved land management strategies for optimizing carbon sequestration. The objective of our study was to evaluate prediction of 14-day average daytime CO₂ fluxes ( F_day) and nighttime CO₂ fluxes (R_n) using remote sensing and other data. F_{day …}

An Approach For Mapping Large-Area Impervious Surfaces: Synergistic Use Of Landsat-7 Etm+ And High Spatial Resolution Imagery, Limin Yang, Chengquan Huang, Bruce K. Wylie, Michael J. Coan

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

A wide range of urban ecosystem studies, including urban climate, land use planning, and resource management, require current and accurate geospatial data of urban impervious surfaces. We developed an approach to quantify urban impervious surfaces as a continuous variable by using multisensor datasets. Subpixel percent impervious surfaces at 30-m resolution were mapped using a regression tree model. The utility, practicality, and affordability of the proposed method for large-area imperviousness mapping were tested over three spatial scales (Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Richmond, Virginia, and the Chesapeake Bay areas of the United States). Average error of predicted versus actual percent impervious surface …

Influence Of The Pacific Decadal Oscillation On The Climate Of The Sierra Nevada, California And Nevada, Larry Benson, Braddock Linsley, Joe Smoot, Scott Mensing, Steve Lund, Scott Stine, Andre Sarna-Wojcicki

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Mono Lake sediments have recorded five major oscillations in the hydrologic balance between A.D. 1700 and 1941. These oscillations can be correlated with tree-ring-based oscillations in Sierra Nevada snowpack. Comparison of a tree-ring-based reconstruction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index (D’Arrigo et al., 2001) with a coral-based reconstruction of Subtropical South Pacific sea-surface temperature (Linsley et al., 2000) indicates a high degree of correlation between the two records during the past 300 yr. This suggests that the PDO has been a pan-Pacific phenomena for at least the past few hundred years. Major oscillations in the hydrologic balance of the …

Age Of The Mono Lake Excursion And Associated Tephra, Larry Benson, Joseph Liddicoat, Joseph Smoot, Andrei Sarna-Wojcicki, Robert M. Negrini, Steve Lund

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Mono Lake excursion (MLE) is an important time marker that has been found in lake and marine sediments across much of the Northern Hemisphere. Dating of this event at its type locality, the Mono Basin of California, has yielded controversial results with the most recent effort concluding that the MLE may actually be the Laschamp excursion (Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 197 (2002) 151). We show that a volcanic tephra (Ash #15) that occurs near the midpoint of the MLE has a date (not corrected for reservoir effect) of 28,620 ± 300 ¹⁴C yr BP (~32,400 GISP2 yr BP) …

Rare-Earth Elements And Nd And Pb Isotopes As Source Indicators For Labrador Sea Clay-Size Sediments During Heinrich Event 2, Larry V. Benson, Don Barber, John T. Andrews, Howard E. Taylor, Paul Lamothe

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Elemental abundances and Nd and Pb isotope ratios were determined on samples from the carbonate-free, clay-size fractions of sediments from intervals above, within, and below Heinrich event 2 (H-2) in core HU87-9 from the Northwest Labrador Sea slope. In HU87-9, rare-earth element (REE) distributions and elemental concentrations within the H-2 event are distinct from those outside this event. ɛ_Nd(0) and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb data also indicate different values for sediments deposited within and outside the H-2 event. Comparisons of REE patterns from the H-2 interval with those from bedrock units in Baffin Island, northern Quebec, and Labrador …

Response Of North American Great Basin Lakes To Dansgaard–Oeschger Oscillations, Larry Benson, Steve Lund, Robert M. Negrini, Braddock Linsley, Mladen Zic

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We correlate oscillations in the hydrologic and/or cryologic balances of four Great Basin surface-water systems with Dansgaard– Oeschger (D–O) events 2–12. This correlation is relatively strong at the location of the magnetic signature used to link the lake records, but becomes less well constrained with distance/time from the signature. Comparison of proxy glacial and hydrologic records from Owens and Pyramid lakes indicates that Sierran glacial advances occurred during times of relative dryness. If our hypothesized correlation between the lake-based records and the GISP2 δ¹⁸O record is correct, it suggests that North Atlantic D–O stades …

Aeolian Cliff-Top Deposits And Buried Soils In The White River Badlands, South Dakota, Usa, J. Elmo Rawling Iii, Glen G. Fredlund, Shannon Mahan

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Aeolian deposits in the North American Great Plains are important sources of Holocene palaeoenvironmental records. Although there are extensive studies on loess and dune records in the region, little is known about records in aeolian cliff-top deposits. These are common on table (mesa) edges in the White River Badlands. These sediments typically have loam and sandy-loam textures with dominantly very fine sand, 0.5–1% organic carbon and 0.5–5% CaCO₃. Some of these aeolian deposits are atypically coarse and contain granules and fine pebbles. Buried soils within these deposits are weakly developed with A-C and A-AC-C profiles. Beneath these are …

New Record Of The Rare Emballonurid Bat Centronycteris Centralis Thomas, 1912 In Costa Rica, With Notes On Feeding Habits, Neal Woodman

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The shaggy sac-winged bat, Centronycteris centralis (Chiroptera: Emballonuridae), occurs mainly in lowland forests from Veracruz, Mexico, to Peru, although it has been reported from elevations as high at 1450 m in Panama (Simmons and Handley 1998; Hice and Solari 2002). Most captures of the species are of single individuals, and throughout its distribution, this bat is rare and poorly-known (Emmons 1997; Reid 1997; Simmons and Handley 1998). Centronycteris centralis generally has been assumed to be an aerial insectivore, capturing flying insects on the wing (Starrett and Casebeer 1968; Wilson 1973; Timm et al. 1989; LaVal and Rodrı´guez 2002). However, direct …

Quaternary Loess-Paleosol Sequences As Examples Of Climate-Driven Sedimentary Extremes, Daniel R. Muhs, E. Arthur Bettis Iii

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Loess is a widespread, wind-transported, silt-dominated deposit that contains geologic archives of atmospheric circulation and paleoclimate on continents. Loess may cover as much as 10% of the Earth’s land surface. It is composed mainly of quartz, feldspars, and clay minerals, with varying amounts of carbonate minerals. The geochemistry of loess differs from region to region, depending on source materials, but all loess is very high in SiO2 with lesser amounts of other major elements. Trends in loess downwind from source areas include systematic decreases in thickness and amounts of sand and coarse silt, and increases in amounts of fine silt …

Field Guide To The Geology Of The Harlan County Lake Area, Harlan County, Nebraska, With A History Of Events Leading To Construction Of Harlan County Dam, Robert F. Diffendal Jr., Duane R. Mohlman, R. George Corner, F. Edwin Harvey, K. J. Warren, Scott Summerside, Roger K. Pabian, Duane A. Eversoll

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The year 2002 will mark the fiftieth anniversary of completion of the Harlan County Dam and Multi-Purpose Reservoir. This seems a good time to write about the history of and reasons for building the dam, the effects of the dam and reservoir on the Republican River valley, and the geologic features seen along the shores of the lake and areas nearby. As many junior authors helped produced this educational circular, they are listed in the table of contents. All other sections were written by the senior author.

Includes July 2016 update: Addendum of photographs showing fault traces on drought-exposed lake …

Beginning A New Era Of Drought Monitoring Across North America, Jay Lawrimore, Richard R. Heim Jr., Mark D. Svoboda, Val Swail, Phil J. Englehart

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought experts from the United States, Canada, and Mexico met at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina, for a three-day workshop in late April 2002 to discuss the United States Drought Monitor program and to develop a plan for initiating a new program of drought monitoring for North America. Since its inception in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (DM) has been extremely successful in assessing and communicating the state of drought in the United States on a weekly basis. This success, and the recognition that an ongoing comprehensive and integrated drought assessment was needed throughout all three …

Three Years And Counting: What’S New With The Drought Monitor, Mark D. Svoboda, Michael J. Hayes, Rich J. Tinker

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Operational since late summer 1999, the Drought Monitor (http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/) has refused to remain static. This unique weekly product attempts to make an assessment of current drought conditions in the contiguous United States, Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Four entities now share in authoring the map: the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
The Drought Monitor effort has led to the development of new products and has reinforced the need for improvement and support of existing climate networks critical to monitoring our nation’s climate. One of …

The Drought Monitor, Mark D. Svoboda, Doug Lecomte, Mike Hayes, Richard Heim, Karin Gleason, Jim Angel, Brad Rippey, Rich Tinker, Mike Palecki, David Stooksbury, David Miskus, Scott Stephens

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is a need for improved drought monitoring and assessment methods in the United States. Drought is the most costly natural disaster [Federal Emergency Management Agancy (FEMA 1995; Wilhite 2000)], but it is often neglected by developers of assessment and forecast products. Drought is more nebulous than other disasters and does not lend itself to traditional assessments or forecast methods. Its relatively slow onset and the complexity of its impacts are reasons for the new assessment methodology. Improvements in drought monitoring and forecasting techniques will allow for better preparation, lead to better management practices, and reduce the vulnerability of society …

Assessing Vulnerability To Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study, Olga V. Wilhelmi, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. …

Spatial Representation Of Agroclimatology In A Study Of Agricultural Drought, Olga V. Wilhelmi, Kenneth Hubbard, Donald A. Wilhite

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Agricultural drought is the leading cause for crop failure throughout the world. In the USA, significant impacts of recent droughts on agricultural production indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. This paper presents a methodology for spatial representation of the agroclimatic component of agricultural drought vulnerability. This methodology was developed as a part of an integrated assessment of drought vulnerability. For the spatial analysis, the state of Nebraska was selected as a study area because of the considerable variation in climatology, soil characteristics, land use, and cropping patterns. The underlying approach assumes that the best spatial characterization of …

Land Use Change And Modification Of Near-Surface Thermal Records In The Northern Great Plains, Rezaul Mahmood, Ken Hubbard, Christy Carlson

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The North American Great Plains have experienced a rapid overturning of natural grasslands to agricultural land use over the last century. Moreover, in some areas more than 80% of the land use has changed from dry land to irrigated agriculture during the second half of the twentieth century. It is speculated that these changes have modified near-surface atmospheric condition and our modeling study seems to support this. To identify changes in land surface- atmospheric modifications we have applied a soil moistureenergy balance model at three locations in Nebraska: Mead, York, and McCook. The model was applied for three land uses …