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Articles 241 - 270 of 283
Full-Text Articles in Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel
Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel
Theses and Dissertations
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) based on the medium range forecast (MRF) ensemble are currently in operational use below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy and reliability). This unfulfilled potential is due to the MRF ensemble being adversely affected by systematic errors which arise from an imperfect model and less than ideal ensemble initial perturbations. This thesis sought to construct a calibration to account for these systematic errors and thus produce higher quality PQPF. Systematic errors were explored with the use of the verification rank histogram, which tracks the performance of the ensemble. The information in these histograms was then …
Evaluation Of Satellite Microwave Derived Surface Temperature Algorithms For The Period August 1996 To February 1997, Charles H. Harris
Evaluation Of Satellite Microwave Derived Surface Temperature Algorithms For The Period August 1996 To February 1997, Charles H. Harris
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has two operational algorithms that derive surface temperatures from microwave observations taken by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) which rides aboard space platforms of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). The algorithm called Temperature from Satellite Microwave Imager (TS) is used to analyze global cloud coverage. The second algorithm is fittingly called Calibration and Validation (CV), as it was the algorithm used to calibrate and validate the first SSM/I in 1987. Multiple linear regression defined the algorithms from empirically gathered brightness temperatures and simultaneous surface temperatures. The key questions were how much data …
Nowcasting Thunderstorms At Cape Canaveral, Florida, Using An Improved Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index, Cindy L. Howell
Nowcasting Thunderstorms At Cape Canaveral, Florida, Using An Improved Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index, Cindy L. Howell
Theses and Dissertations
The Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI) is used daily by the 45th Weather Squadron during the convective season to estimate the probability of afternoon thunderstorms. The current I , developed by Charles J. Neumann in the 1960s, i based on only 13 years of data taken over 30 years ago. The index was in desperate need of an upgrade. Following the multiple regression techniques outlined by Neumann, this thesis examines whether or not including additional data would improve the performance of the NPTI. After performing the multiple regressions and retuning the regression coefficients, both NPTs were validated using a 2-year independent …
A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall
A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall
Theses and Dissertations
Total fractional cloudiness (FC) forecasts from the advect cloud (ADVCLD) model and total FC forecasts diagnosed from the relative humidity and total cloud condensate (snow, ice, rain water, and cloud water) fields from the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) were statistically and subjectively compared to determine which model produced the better total FC forecasts from August through November 1997 for a forecast window centered on Bosnia. The real time nephanalysis (RTNFPH) model was used to represent the true state of the atmosphere. ADVCLD and MM5 forecasts were also compared against a persistence forecast to provide a minimal skill baseline. The …
Analyzing Horizontal Distances Between Wsr-88d Thunderstorm Centroids And Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Strikes, Steve L. Renner
Analyzing Horizontal Distances Between Wsr-88d Thunderstorm Centroids And Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Strikes, Steve L. Renner
Theses and Dissertations
On April 29, 1996, lightning struck the airfield at Hurlburt Field, FL, killing one Airmen and injuring ten others. This cloud to ground lightning strike hit eight minutes after a lightning advisory was canceled. At the time of the strike, thunderstorms were observed 7 to 10 miles north and south of the airfield. The incident raised questions about Air Force Weather Agency's lightning criteria. Soon after the incident, a Lightning Safety Review Panel was assembled to determine the adequacy of lightning advisories. One of the questions posed to the panel was could an incident like Hurlburt happen again? The review …
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-Eta Numerical Model Output, Christian S. Wohlwend
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-Eta Numerical Model Output, Christian S. Wohlwend
Theses and Dissertations
The 45th Weather Squadron (WS) is responsible for the protection of billions of dollars worth of Air Force and NASA equipment from weather hazards. They produce a seven day planning forecast as one tool to support the space launch community. Improving this forecast can potentially save millions of dollars of government funds. This research focuses on the feasibility of improving the day two thunderstorm forecast by applying Meso Eta numerical forecasts to the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The NPTI is currently used by the 45th WS for same day thunderstorm probability forecasting utilizing the morning radiosonde as input. The perfect …
Regression Analysis Of Radar Measured Optical Turbulence With Synoptic Scale Meteorological Variables, Diana L. Hajek
Regression Analysis Of Radar Measured Optical Turbulence With Synoptic Scale Meteorological Variables, Diana L. Hajek
Theses and Dissertations
A key issue to the USAF's Airborne Laser (ABL) program is the ability to accurately predict the level of optical turbulence that the ABL will encounter at its flight levels. The optical turbulence must be characterized so that the range and range variation of the ABL can be determined. Gravity wave spectra resulting from frontal or jet stream passage are presumed to cause layers of optical turbulence; however, exact relationships between optical turbulence and synoptic scale meteorological phenomena are unclear. This study assesses the statistical relationship between optical turbulence and synoptic scale variables through multiple linear regression. The optical turbulence …
Forecasting Wet Microbursts Associated With Summertime Airmass Thunderstorms Over The Southeastern United States, James B. Mackey
Forecasting Wet Microbursts Associated With Summertime Airmass Thunderstorms Over The Southeastern United States, James B. Mackey
Theses and Dissertations
Microbursts are intense downbursts from thunderstorms that affect an area less than 4 km and have a lifespan less than 10 minutes. Wet microbursts are associated with heavy precipitation and are common in the eastern and southeastern part of the country. The greatest threat from microbursts is to low flying aircraft, where the rapid fluctuations in horizontal and vertical airflow create tremendous shear zones. Microbursts have been determined to be the causal factor behind at least three major aircraft accidents resulting in numerous fatalities. Due to the short lifespan of microbursts, they often strike without warning and pose a serious …
A Validation Study Of The Air Force Weather Agency (Afwa) Jetrax Contrail Forecast Algorithm, Jeffrey D. Shull
A Validation Study Of The Air Force Weather Agency (Afwa) Jetrax Contrail Forecast Algorithm, Jeffrey D. Shull
Theses and Dissertations
Accurate contrail forecasts allow pilots to avoid levels of the atmosphere which are conducive to contrail formation, reducing their likelihood of being visually detected by enemy forces. The primary objective of this thesis is to evaluate the performance of the JETRAX contrail forecast algorithm currently used by the Air Force Weather Agency to support military air operations. A total of 397 ground-based contrail observations were collected at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base on 27 different days. Observations were collected with the aid of air traffic control radar, which greatly facilitated the positive identification of overflying aircraft and provided necessary information such …
Requirements, Design And Prototype Of A Virtual User Interface For The Afit Virtual Spaceplane, John M. Lewis
Requirements, Design And Prototype Of A Virtual User Interface For The Afit Virtual Spaceplane, John M. Lewis
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force is evaluating the feasibility of designing a military spaceplane capable of accomplishing military objectives from a low earth orbit and atmospheric flight regimes. Current efforts are involved in determining the scientific, operational, and budgetary constraints associated with this concept. This thesis looks at the exploration of new interface techniques associated with the design of a virtual spaceplane and is a subset of the overall virtual spaceplane effort which will assist researchers in determining the feasibility of a military spaceplane. Interface techniques are integrated into a virtual user interface that is designed to accommodate expected operations …
Atmospheric Turbulence Scintillation Effects On Wavefront Tilt Estimation, James A. Louthain
Atmospheric Turbulence Scintillation Effects On Wavefront Tilt Estimation, James A. Louthain
Theses and Dissertations
A new atmospheric turbulence screen generator is developed for use in performance calculations of adaptive optics systems valid over a wide range of atmospheric turbulence parameters. The screen generator accounts for diffraction effects caused by weak turbulence and incorporates the phase, amplitude, and cross statistics of the perturbed optical field. The wavefront's phase and amplitude perturbations are taken from the correlation functions developed by Lee and Harp and the cross correlation of the phase and amplitude derived in this thesis. The screen generator uses a modal representation to perform a Fourier series expansion of the wavefront phase and amplitude over …
A Validation Of The Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (Prism) Version 1.7b, Shawn D. Filby
A Validation Of The Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (Prism) Version 1.7b, Shawn D. Filby
Theses and Dissertations
The most current version of the Parameterized Real-time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM), version 1.7b, was validated using Digital Ionospheric Sounding System (DISS) measurements of F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and F2 peak electron density height (hmF2) as the "ground truth." PRISM was executed, first, with no real-time input parameter and, second, with Global Positioning System (GPS) Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements as the sole real-time parameter. Hourly values of hmF2 and foF2 over 123 days in 1994-1996 (solar minimum conditions) and covering three seasons (equinox, summer solstice, and winter solstice) were compared for Wallops Island, Virginia, and Point Arguello, California, …
An Atmospheric Sensitivity And Validation Study Of The Variable Terrain Radio Parabolic Equation Model (Vtrpe), Matthew K. Doggett
An Atmospheric Sensitivity And Validation Study Of The Variable Terrain Radio Parabolic Equation Model (Vtrpe), Matthew K. Doggett
Theses and Dissertations
The Variable Terrain Radio Parabolic Equation (VTRPE) computer model is a powerful and flexible program that provides calculations of the radar propagation conditions of the atmosphere. It is limited however, by the accuracy and resolution of the input data. This study quantifies the sensitivity of the VTRPE model to the accuracy and resolution of the atmospheric parameters that go into it. Also, two case studies are examined to test the utility of VTRPE in operational use. The sensitivity to measurements of pressure, temperature, and humidity was found to be dependent on the meteorological environment. In standard and subrefractive environments, average …
Validation Of The Air Force Global Weather Center Relocatable Window Model Total Cloud Forecast, Edward C. Harris
Validation Of The Air Force Global Weather Center Relocatable Window Model Total Cloud Forecast, Edward C. Harris
Theses and Dissertations
Air Force Global Weather Center's (AFGWC) Relocatable Window Model (RWM) total cloud forecasts were validated using data for selected days in May, June, and July, 1996. Forecasts were generated twice daily (00 UTC and 12 UTC) to determine the RWM's ability to accurately forecast total cloud cover during the late spring and early summer. The RWM forecasts were post-processed using the Slingo cloud forecast algorithm and compared against AFGWC's operational real time nephanalysis (RTNEPH) cloud analysis model. As a minimal-skill baseline comparison to the RWM's total cloud forecast, the RTNEPH initial analysis hour was persisted and evaluated against the same …
Quantification Of Weather Effects On Imaging Laser Radar, Clifton D. Stargardt
Quantification Of Weather Effects On Imaging Laser Radar, Clifton D. Stargardt
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force is investigating the use of imaging laser radar systems as autonomous guidance systems on future precision guided munitions. The Air Force's Wright Laboratory is currently testing a 1.06 micron wavelength laser radar (ladar) at Eglin Air Force Base. Since laser radiation can be susceptible to propagation problems through weather, quantitative understanding of these effects is important to the development of this weapon system. Ladar image degradation, in the form of target dropouts and false returns, was evaluated in various weather conditions. Statistical analysis of the images presented expected degrees of degradation according to visibility and rain fall …
Moisture Sensitivity Of Contrail Forecast Algorithms, Allen C. Rabayda
Moisture Sensitivity Of Contrail Forecast Algorithms, Allen C. Rabayda
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis looked at using new relative humidity (RH) climatologies to improve the Air Force Global Weather Center's (AFGWC) contrail forecasts. To study the effect of the new RH climatolgies, the currently used empirical relative humidity (RH) profile is replaced with a more accurate climatological one, the Stratospheric And Gaseous Experiment II (SAGE II). The study begins by examining accuracy and bias of forecast contrail bases generated by the empirical and SAGE II RH profiles on 42 days. Both sets of forecast bases are shown to be statistically similar with a series of hypothesis tests. Additional RH profiles, from 0% …
A Validation Study Of The Ssm/I Temperature Algorithm And Comparison With The Cal/Val Land Surface Temperatures, Ronald L. Comoglio
A Validation Study Of The Ssm/I Temperature Algorithm And Comparison With The Cal/Val Land Surface Temperatures, Ronald L. Comoglio
Theses and Dissertations
The USAF operational cloud model, the Real-Time Nephanalysis (RTNEPH), requires infrared and visual scene scans as well as input from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), featured on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) polar orbiters. Additionally, SSM/I provides input to the Air Force Global Weather Center (AFGWC) surface temperature model (SFCTMP). The global surface temperatures are required for identifying which pixel of a scene is cloud and which is ground and as a first guess input to initialize NWP models. The SSM/I provides brightness temperatures sampled at four discrete: frequencies and dual polarizations to produce surface temperatures. Two algorithms …
An Examination Of The Hanson Contrail Forecast Algorithm Under Low Relative Humidity Conditions, Robert P. Asbury Iii
An Examination Of The Hanson Contrail Forecast Algorithm Under Low Relative Humidity Conditions, Robert P. Asbury Iii
Theses and Dissertations
Accurate forecasts of contrail occurrence are essential to military aircrews. Although classical forecast methods have been reasonably successful predicting contrails, there is need for improvement at low ambient relative humidity. This thesis examines the performance of the Hanson method, which was developed to provide better contrail forecasts under drier atmospheric conditions. As a secondary objective, the forecast methods of Schumann and Hanson are compared to the algorithm currently in use by the Air Force Global Weather Central. Data used to validate the algorithms were collected at Wright-Patterson AFB, OH and Edwards AFB, CA. Theoretical contrail forecasts were made for each …
Development And Implementation Of An Isentropic Potential Vorticity Algorithm For Use At Air Force Global Weather Center, Jay B. Desjardins Jr.
Development And Implementation Of An Isentropic Potential Vorticity Algorithm For Use At Air Force Global Weather Center, Jay B. Desjardins Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis presents and validates methods for calculating isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and applies these methods in software programs planned for implementation at the Air Force Global Weather Center (AFGWC). The IPV programs will provide Air Force Weather forecasters additional tools to diagnose atmospheric kinematics and understand atmospheric dynamics. A FORTRAN program is recommended using mandatory-level isobaric data projected to be available on AFGWC computer systems, specifically, from the Navy Operational Global Atmosphere Prediction System and Medium Range Forecast models. Program development and analysis consists of three main steps: (1) data retrieval; (2) IPV calculations; and, (3) interpolation to an …
Adaption Of The Air Weather Service Fog Model To Forecast Radiation Fog Events In The Southeast United States, Andrew C. Goodnite
Adaption Of The Air Weather Service Fog Model To Forecast Radiation Fog Events In The Southeast United States, Andrew C. Goodnite
Theses and Dissertations
This research examined the performance of the Air Weather Service (AWS) Fog Model and the potential for using it in the Southeast United States for predicting fog. This task was accomplished in four separate steps. First, a correlation study was performed by comparing different weather elements in observations that met radiational cooling conditions to the observed visibility. This correlation study showed that the 22 UTC dewpoint depression was correlated (0.60) with early morning fog and no other weather elements that are commonly observed had significant correlation with early morning fog. Second, a verification study was conducted on the Saint Louis …
Optimization Of The Velocity Azimuth Display (Vad) Algorithm's Adaptable Parameters In The Wsr-88d System, Donald R. Farris
Optimization Of The Velocity Azimuth Display (Vad) Algorithm's Adaptable Parameters In The Wsr-88d System, Donald R. Farris
Theses and Dissertations
Meteorologists have encountered problems with the Velocity Azimuth Display (VAD) algorithm in the Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) System. Under certain meteorological conditions, forecasters have observed differences between the radar's wind profiles and wind profiles from rawinsonde upper-air soundings, or wind profilers. One of the main causes of this problem is inversions in the atmosphere which cause the radar beam to subrefract or superefract, causing the VAD winds to be inaccurately reported at a particular height. This thesis used the WSR-88D Algorithm Testing and Display System (WATADS) to compare VAD winds from recorded Level 2 NEXRAD data at …
Automatic Digital Processing For Calibration Data Of Open Skies Treaty Sensors, Donna D. Keating
Automatic Digital Processing For Calibration Data Of Open Skies Treaty Sensors, Donna D. Keating
Theses and Dissertations
The Open Skies Treaty provides guidelines allowing participants to fly in air space over other participants' countries to monitor strategic military placement and development. The treaty restricts the ground size of the smallest detail recorded by these aerial imaging systems to any size larger than 30 cm. This restriction is enforced by placing a lower limit on the altitude at which a participating aircraft can fly and it is computed as the value of Hmin. Current techniques rely on human photographic interpreters to select the value of Hmin for every calibration pass and is very resource intensive. The Open Skies …
Analysis Of Multimode Low-Probability-Of-Intercept (Lpi) Communications With Atmospheric Effects, Ala Ghordlo
Analysis Of Multimode Low-Probability-Of-Intercept (Lpi) Communications With Atmospheric Effects, Ala Ghordlo
Theses and Dissertations
This research expanded Low Probability of Intercept (LPI) communications analysis in two areas. First, multimode communication was included to account for ground to ground and air to ground links in addition to the standard air to air links traditionally used in LPI analysis. The propagation equations for the three modes of interest were derived and included in LPI analytic models in the form of a mode quality factor to account for multimode LPI scenarios. This new quality factor was used in studying several communication and interception link combinations. Variations due to differences between the communication and interception modes were presented …
Performance Analysis Of A Hartman Wavefront Sensor Used For Sensing Atmospheric Turbulence Statistics, Toby D. Reeves
Performance Analysis Of A Hartman Wavefront Sensor Used For Sensing Atmospheric Turbulence Statistics, Toby D. Reeves
Theses and Dissertations
Atmospheric turbulence parameters, such as Fried's coherence diameter, the outer scale of turbulence, and the turbulence power law, are related to the wavefront slope structure function (SSF). The SSF is defined as the second moment of the wavefront slope difference as a function of both time and position. Knowledge of the SSF allows turbulence parameters to be estimated. Hartmann wavefront sensor (H-WFS) slope measurements composed of both signal and noise, allow the SSF to be estimated by computing a mean square difference of H-WFS slope measurements. The quality of the SSF estimate is quantified by the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of …
Deconvolution From Wavefront Sensing Using Optimal Wavefront Estimators, Scott R. Maethner
Deconvolution From Wavefront Sensing Using Optimal Wavefront Estimators, Scott R. Maethner
Theses and Dissertations
A cost effective method to improve the space surveillance mission performance of United States Air Force (USAF) ground-based telescopes is investigated and improved. A minimum variance wavefront estimation technique is used to improve Deconvolution from Wavefront Sensing (DWFS), a method to mitigate the effects of atmospheric turbulence on imaging systems that does not require expensive adaptive optics. Both least-squares and minimum variance wavefront phase estimation techniques are investigated, using both Gaussian and Zernike polynomial elementary functions. Imaging simulations and established performance metrics are used to evaluate these wavefront estimation techniques for a one-meter optical telescope. Performance metrics include the average …
Investigation Of Ba, Bao, Sr And Sro Pulsed Laser-Induced Vapor Plumes In N2, O2, Microwave Discharged O2, And Vacuum At Low Laser Fluence, David L. Byers
Investigation Of Ba, Bao, Sr And Sro Pulsed Laser-Induced Vapor Plumes In N2, O2, Microwave Discharged O2, And Vacuum At Low Laser Fluence, David L. Byers
Theses and Dissertations
Ba, BaO, Sr and SrO were ablated by 248 nm laser pulses at fluences ranging from 270 mJ-/sq cm to 575 mJ-/sq cm in vacuum and in 25 mtorr atmospheres of N2, O2 and microwave-discharged O2. The spectral emissions of these plumes were compared for indications of ionization due to Ba or Sr collisions with each gas. The addition of a background gas increased the ion and neutral signature across the spectrum. SrO band emission was observed at 16,600-16,900/cm and possible BaO band emissions were observed in the 18,250-18,400/cm, 19,000-19700/cm and 19,800-20,000/cm regions. A screened plate ion probe was use …
Investigation Of Radio Wave Propagation In The Martian Ionosphere Utilizing Hf Sounding Techniques, Robert J. Yowell
Investigation Of Radio Wave Propagation In The Martian Ionosphere Utilizing Hf Sounding Techniques, Robert J. Yowell
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis presents a preliminary design of an ionospheric sounder to be carried aboard one or more of NASA's Mars Surveyor landers. Past Russian and American probes have indicated the existence of an ionosphere, but none of these missions remotely sensed this atmospheric layer from the surface. The rationale for utilizing a surface-based Martian ionospheric sounder is discussed. Based on NASA's choice of launch vehicle and power source, a low-weight, low-powered Chirp sounder using a horizontally-polarized dipole antenna is recommended for the sounder experiment. The sounder experiment should be conducted for at least one Martian year, in order to investigate …
Application Of Autoregressive Moving Average Linear Prediction Filters To The Characterization Of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, Carter N. Borst
Application Of Autoregressive Moving Average Linear Prediction Filters To The Characterization Of Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Coupling, Carter N. Borst
Theses and Dissertations
Linear prediction filtering techniques have been used in studying the coupling processes between the solar wind and magnetosphere. The magnetosphere is a complex, dynamic system with at least two independent coupling methods for energy input, driven and unloading. Linear models were built and tested on the Bargatze data set, consisting of over 70 days of geomagnetic indices and solar wind data ordered in 34 intervals of increasing geomagnetic activity. Linear filtering techniques employing single-and multiple-input, autoregressive models predicted values of the magnetic index AL from solar wind data. The impulse response curves of the AL-coupling function groups showed amplitude peaks …
The Role Of Frame Selection And Bispectrum Phase Reconstruction For Speckle Imaging Through Atmospheric Turbulence, Elizabeth A. Harpold
The Role Of Frame Selection And Bispectrum Phase Reconstruction For Speckle Imaging Through Atmospheric Turbulence, Elizabeth A. Harpold
Theses and Dissertations
Frame selection using quality sharpness metrics have been shown in previous AFIT theses, to be effective in improving the final product of images obtained using adaptive optics. This thesis extends this idea to noncompensated speckle image data. Speckle image reconstruction is simulated with and without frame selection. Speckle images require the processing of hundreds of data frames. Frame selection is a method of reducing the amount of data required to reconstruct the image. A collection of short exposure image data frames of a single object are sorted based on sharpness metrics. Only the highest quality frames are retained and processed …
Analysis And Interpretation Of Ion Data Associated With Neutral Gas Releases In The Earth's Ionosphere, Timothy M. Shadid
Analysis And Interpretation Of Ion Data Associated With Neutral Gas Releases In The Earth's Ionosphere, Timothy M. Shadid
Theses and Dissertations
Barium and strontium release experiments were conducted throughout 1991 from the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) to study both natural and man-made disturbances in the earth's ionosphere. A mass spectrometer on the spacecraft counted the Ba and Sr ions as the cloud expanded. In this study, data from the G-1 (in sunlight) and G-11b (in darkness) releases were modeled to understand the source of the ion signals. The model reproduced the Ba+ sun data well assuming photoionization (τ = 28 s) was the primary ionization mechanism. However, it was not able to account for the remaining ion …