Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Yucatan Hurricane Activity Highlights Common Era Tropical Cyclone Dipole, Richard M. Sullivan, Peter J. Van Hengstum, Elizabeth J. Wallace, Sloan Coats, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Robert Korty, Shawna N. Little, Martin G. Maas Vargas, Luis Mejia-Ortiz, Eduard G. Reinhardt, Courtney Schumacher, Anne E. Tamalavage, Tyler S. Winkler

OES Faculty Publications

Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts along the western Atlantic and Caribbean margin are not spatially uniform. Proxy based reconstructions of Common Era TC activity highlight this non-uniform distribution at centennial-millennial timescales. However, the sparse geographic scope of these reconstructions impedes our assessment of TC landfalls across broader spatial domains. This work presents a compilation of new and existing TC reconstructions from the Yucatan Peninsula for comparison with a contemporaneous compilation from New England, showing that these regions occupy distal nodes of a low-frequency TC dipole. Increased Yucatan (New England) storminess is closely linked to intervals of Northern Hemisphere warming (cooling) and …

Multi-Centennial Spatial Coherency Among Atlantic Tropical Cyclones From Simulated And Reconstructed Storm Records, Richard M. Sullivan, Elizabeth Wallace, Sylvia Dee, Gabiel A. Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Kerry Emanuel

OES Faculty Publications

Proxy-based reconstructions of long-term Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) variability reveal low-frequency oscillations in regional TC landfalls over the Common Era. However, the limited spatial coverage and increased uncertainty of the proxy records complicates assessments of this feature. Here we present a new multi-ensemble set of synthetic TCs downscaled from the Last Millennium Reanalysis project, which is based on sea surface temperatures that more accurately reflect past conditions. Throughout ensemble members, there are coherent multi-centennial shifts in landfalls with persistent intervals of increased (decreased) occurrence along the eastern US concurrent with inverse activity in the southwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, …

Sandy Subterranean Estuaries Minimize Groundwater Nitrogen Pollution Impacts On Coastal Waters, Xiaogang Chen, Isaac R. Santos, Jinzhou Du, Bochao Xu, Joseph J. Tamborski, Ding He, Neven Cukrov, Christian J. Sanders, Jianan Liu, Peiyuan Zhu, Yan Zhang, Ling Li

OES Faculty Publications

Widespread anthropogenic activities pollute groundwater that eventually seeps out to the coastal ocean. Here, we resolve nutrient transformations and fluxes in 11 sandy subterranean estuaries (STEs) with contrasting nutrient sources and development trajectories. Coastal groundwater nitrogen pollution stems from sewage discharge and land use change. Anthropogenically derived groundwater nutrient fluxes with high N/P ratios (∼170) accounted for 22%–61% of riverine inputs into China's coastal waters, providing an additional source of nutrients that can fuel coastal eutrophication and algal blooms. Sandy STEs remarkably attenuated ∼84% of nitrogen pollution, minimizing the impact of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) on coastal water quality. Hence, …

Identifying Intangible And Biocultural Heritage Elements Toward Environmental Understanding: Engaging Stakeholders Through Art, Martha B. Lerski

Publications and Research

Grounded in a case study in Barbuda in the Caribbean, this research examines sustainability from the perspective of what arts and heritage can contribute to community engagement and local and broader understandings about the environment. This article documents a growing body of literature recognizing the role of arts and culture, including local knowledge and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK), in climate change endeavors. Art and TEK present expansive world views. Contextual information situates research done on the island of Barbuda pre- and post-Hurricane Irma. Visual arts workshops engaged community members in mixed methods research. Results documented cultural elements, particularly intangible and …

The Future Of Shipping At The Biodiversity-Climate Nexus : Round Table Report, Mary S. Wisz, Fabio Berzaghi, Mikaela Gomez, Maud C. Quinzin, Renis Auma Ojwala, Emily Nuckolls

Reports

This report presents the outcomes of a cross-disciplinary Round Table hosted by the World Maritime University (WMU) from May 13-15, 2024, in Malmö, Sweden. The event brought together 51 experts from academia, industry, NGOs, and international organizations, including the IMO, to explore shipping’s role at the biodiversity-climate nexus. The Round Table had a particular focus on the impacts of shipping that are currently unregulated or under-regulated, and opportunities to address biodiversity loss and pollution as the sector decarbonizes. The report highlights the need to apply comprehensive, ecosystem-based approaches to effectively manage shipping's impacts, including cumulative impacts, on the environment, people, …

Improving Understanding And Connections For Preparedness, Mitigation, Response, And Recovery For Tornado And Straight-Line Wind Events In Virginia: Summary Of The Inaugural Virginia Tornado And Straight-Line Wind Summit, Wie Yusuf, Monica Arul, Joshua Behr, Kaleen Lawsure, An Huy Pham, Henry Attivor

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

Background

The Virginia Tornado and Straight-Line Wind Summit, the first of its kind in the Commonwealth, was held on October 15, 2025 in Isle of Wight County, Virginia. The Summit had several goals, including:

• Understanding Virginia’s wind risk and learning the science behind it.
• Hearing lessons learned from emergency managers who have experienced extreme wind events.
• Learning about practical steps to prepare, mitigate, and respond to severe wind events.
• Learning best practices for timely and actionable communication with the public before and after events.
• Strengthening interagency coordination and connecting with others to share resources, align priorities, and coordinate resilience planning. …

The Strategic And Governance Implications Of Solar Radiation Modification: Perspectives From Delegates Of International Climate Negotiations, Todd L. Cherry, Steffen Kallbekken, David M. Mcevoy, Wai Yan Siu

ODU Articles

The lack of progress in addressing climate change has led to increased interest in solar radiation modification (SRM)—a collection of large-scale interventions that cool the planet by managing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth. SRM complicates climate change governance because, in addition to advancing collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, governance needs to restrain unilateral SRM action while balancing diverging actor interests, ethical risks and scientific uncertainty. We survey international climate policy experts for their assessments of the potential for effective global governance of SRM and the likelihood of possible international responses to unilateral SRM scenarios. …

Coastal Flooding And Housing Market Liquidity: Policy Implications For Eastern U. S. Communities, Wai Yan Siu, Rex Sitti

ODU Articles

Coastal flooding poses an escalating threat to communities across the U.S East Coast, where rising sea levels and intensifying storms increasingly overwhelm existing infrastructure and natural defenses. These events generate complex economic consequences that extend beyond immediate property damage to affect community stability and long-term development patterns. The real estate industry in particular, faces increasing levels of flood risk. Existing research on climate risk and real estate markets focuses predominantly on price capitalization effects, overlooking the critical dimension of housing market liquidity. This study examines the causal impact of coastal flooding on days-on-market (DOM), a metric of liquidity in the …

Multi-Model Estimate Of Antarctic Ice-Shelf Basal Mass Budget And Ocean Drivers, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Richard Porter-Smith, Sue Cook, Eva Cougnon, David E. Gwyther, Wilma G. C. Huneke, Madelaine G. Rosevear, Xylar Asay-Davis, Fabio Boeira Dias, Michael S. Dinniman, David Holland, Kazuya Kusahara, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Keith W. Nicholls, Charles Pelletier, Ole Richter, Hélène Seroussi, Ralph Timmerman

CCPO Publications

Societal adaptation to rising sea levels requires robust projections of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's retreat, particularly due to ocean-driven basal melting of its fringing ice shelves. Recent advances in ocean models that simulate ice-shelf melting offer an opportunity to reduce uncertainties in ice–ocean interactions. Here, we compare several community-contributed, circum-Antarctic ocean simulations to highlight inter-model differences, evaluate agreement with satellite-derived melt rates, and examine underlying physical processes. All but one simulation use a melting formulation depending on both thermal driving (T^⋆) and friction velocity (u^⋆), which together represent the thermal and ocean current forcings at the …

Spatiotemporal Evolution Of Surface Water Quality And Driving Factors Across Varying Levels Of Human Interference In A Major Subbasin Of The Yellow River Basin, China, Longmei Xie, Ruizhong Gao, Xixi Wang, Limin Duan, Lijing Fang, Hui Tong, Chang Yue, Tingxi Liu

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Study region

The Dahei River Basin, a sub-basin of the Yellow River Basin, was selected for this study. Encompassing population centers and villages in Inner Mongolia, it supports vital ecosystems and underscores the need to address its unique challenges in water management and protection.

Study focus

This study examines surface water quality dynamics in the Dahei River Basin, a key aspect of sustainable water management. Predicting spatiotemporal variations and driving factors remains challenging. Using 2013–2023 datasets on water quality, hydrology, and meteorology, the composite pollution index (CPI), ANOVA, and generalized additive models were applied to provide insights for effective management. …

A Blueprint To Greener Shorelines: Advancing The Effectiveness, Sustainability, And Widespread Adoption Of Coastal Nature-Based Solutions Through Transdisciplinary Research, Taylor M. Sloey, Sierra Hildebrandt, Rebecca L. Morris, Matthew V. Bilskie, Aaron Bland, David Bushek, Gabriella Dipetto, Daniel Elefant, Vincent Encomio, Ramin Familkhalili, Christine Hladik, Danielle Kreeger, Avery B. Paxton, Cindy M. Palinkas, Latina Steele, Andrew Scheld, Daisuke Taira, Jason D. Toft, Armando J. Ubeda, Christine Whitcraft, Donna Marie Bilkovic

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Coastal nature-based solutions (NbS) have emerged as powerful tools to enhance sustainable development and ecological restoration goals. As a rapidly growing field spanning across social, political, ecological, economic, and engineering disciplines, it is critical that researchers working in coastal NbS regularly attempt to identify emerging focal areas for scientific inquiry. Following the 27th Biennial meeting of the Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation, we provide a transdisciplinary perspective (including biologists, engineers, oceanographers, geoscientists, economists, and facilitators of workforce training programs) of pertinent research questions that, if answered, will advance the effectiveness, sustainability, and widespread adoption of coastal NbS. These suggestions for …

Integrated Valuation Of The Ecological, Social And Economic Benefits Provided By A Multifunctional Nature-Based Solution, Laura Costadone, Shan Zhang

ODU Articles

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) offer multifunctional approaches to address climate change and environmental challenges, providing a sustainable alternative to traditional gray infrastructure. Despite their promise, widespread adoption remains limited, in part due to an incomplete understanding of their full costs and benefits relative to conventional infrastructure. Traditional benefit–cost analyses often overlook non-monetized benefits and the interconnected ecosystem services provided by NbS. This study introduces a methodological approach to quantify both the physical and monetary value of ecosystem services and co-benefits delivered by an NbS project. We applied an integrated valuation framework to a case study in Virginia Beach, VA, USA, where …

High-Resolution Modeling Of Extreme Heat Events With Socioeconomic Consideration: A Real-Case Wrf-Les Approach, Maryam Golbazi, Frank Liu, Yin-Hsuen Chen, Timothy W. Juliano, Heather Richter

ODU Articles

The overarching goals of this work is to explore best practices for micro-scale modeling of a real case, identify relevant phenomena by using high-resolution modeling, and to explore their implications for public health, and climate resilience strategies in Hampton Roads, VA, USA. This project employs the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to conduct a comprehensive study of Hampton Roads, utilizing a coupled mesoscale to microscale modeling capable of resolving boundary layer turbulence. This study has three primary objectives: (1) to establish the optimal mesoscale to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) configurations for complex geographical regions such as the Hampton Roads (HR) …

Sustainable Management Of Erosive Shores: An Interdisciplinary Approach Integrating Engineering And Social Sciences At A Tide-Dominant Beach Area, Jun Ik Sohn, Hyun Dong Kim, Kiran Adhithya Ramakrishnan

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

This study investigates the causes and consequences of shoreline erosion at Kkotji Beach, a prominent tourist destination on the west coast of South Korea, where the degradation of the coastal environment has increasingly threatened the local tourism industry and economy, by employing a mixed-methods approach that combines field observations with MIKE 21 hydrodynamic simulations and by integrating perspectives from coastal engineering and the social sciences to develop practical, site-specific strategies for mitigating erosion, enhancing public awareness, and promoting sustainable coastal planning and development that support long-term environmental resilience and economic stability. The results show that dominant ebb currents drive southward …

Twenty Years Of Global Stratospheric Fluorine Inventories From Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (Ace-Fts) Measurements, N. Raymond, P. Bernath, C. Boone, M. Chipperfield

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

We present fluorine inventories calculated for twenty years (2004–2023) and five latitude bands (82°–60°N, 60°–30°N, 30°N–30°S, 30°–60°S, and 60°–82°S) at altitudes from the surface up to 55 km. The inventories were calculated using the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE‐FTS) version 5.2 retrievals of the volume mixing ratios (VMRs) of 15 fluorine‐containing species. Of these 15 species, 3 are product gases: HF, COF₂, COCIF, and 12 are source gases: SF₆, PFC-14 (CF₄), CFC-11 (CCl₃F), CFC-12 (CCl₂F₂), CFC-113 (CCIF₂CCl₂F), HCFC-22 (CHF₂CL), HCFC-141b(C₂H₃Cl₂F), HCFC-142b ( …

Complexity, Polycentricity, And Climate Change: An Embedded, Multi-Level Case Study Of A Climate Meta-Network, Timothy Staub

Antioch University Dissertations & Theses

The earth is in crisis, and without urgent, systemic, and collective global action to address the emerging threat of climate change, we will continue to see catastrophic events impacting humanity, threatening our very survival in many regions of the world. Temperatures will rise, ice shelves will melt, seas will rise, crops will fail, water scarcity from drought and new weather patterns will increase and spread, wildfires will accelerate, and food and water insecurity, violence, and the largest human migration in history will ensue. These climate crises will displace over 1.2 billion people by 2050 at a rate currently exceeding 21.5 …

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Framework For Forecasting Coastal Water Level In Virginia Beach, Md Mahmudul Hasan, Malachi Schram, Sridhar Katragadda, Diana Mcspadden, Alisa N. Udomvisawakul, Heather Richter, Frank Liu

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Coastal areas like Virginia Beach, USA, are increasingly vulnerable to flooding. To mitigate the impact of flooding, it is crucial for the City of Virginia Beach to have reliable 72-hour-ahead (3 days) forecasts of water levels at key gauge locations. To support this effort, several sensors have been installed throughout the city to monitor water levels and other environmental parameters such as wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure. Leveraging sensor data from one of these locations, we developed an uncertainty-aware deep learning model to forecast water levels. We employed deep quantile regression (DQR) to quantify variability in the predictions and …

Co-Creation, Interpretations And Engagement With A Movement-Based Symbol For Climate Justice: A Qualitative Inquiry, Kai Reimer-Watts

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

The climate crisis demonstrates with complete clarity the need for massive systems-level changes towards far more sustainable societies. Global and local emissions need to decline rapidly to mitigate intensifying climate breakdown, accompanied by climate and sustainability solutions, to secure a far more stable, safe, and just future for all people and all life. Within these changes, engaging in our communities is essential to support and co-create broader solutions to help advance more sustainable societies, reduce negative impacts of a changing climate, and to move towards cultures and systems that recognize natural limits and centre care for people and planet.

‘Climate …

Bottom-Up Global Change: Stealth Action In A Decentralized World, Art Blaser, Trinity Huynh

Political Science Faculty Articles and Research

The climate justice and disability rights movements reflect a paradigm shift from a top-down approach to policy-making to one that emphasizes local efforts by non-state actors.

Understanding The Plastic Issue (Poster Presentation), Regan Bossie, Peter Nguyen, John Mcswiggin, Adam Meadows

Sustainability Conference

The Plastic-Free Campus Initiative is an Embry-Riddle initiative advocating for the reduction and elimination of single-use plastics on the Daytona Beach campus.

Our poster presentation aims to highlight current issues and concerns by presenting plastic production trends, quantifying how plastic pollution has affected global ecosystems, and discussing the material characteristics of plastics and their consequences. The poster will provide an overview of the current state of global recycling and will outline key concerns that microplastics, and plastics in general, pose to public health. By presenting the current facts and concerns related to plastic and recycling, we hope to encourage individuals …

Estimating The Economic Impact Of A Natural Disaster On The Workforce Resiliency: An Analysis Of The Virginia Beach - Chesapeake - Norfolk Metropolitan Statistical Area, Robert M. Mcnab, Yin-Hsuen Chen, George Mcleod

Presentations, Lectures, Posters, Reports

In this paper, we explore the potential economic impacts associated with a major hurricane making landfall in Hampton Roads. We estimate the direct damages from a Florence-like Category 3 hurricane with a 3.6 feet tidal offset are estimated at $15.6 billion, equivalent to 10% of the 2022 regional GDP. If we apply existing flood insurance rates to these projected damages, we estimate that the total economic impact would exceed $12 billion with a short-term loss of more than 76,000 jobs. The job losses are concentrated in sectors that provide services to households which would bear the brunt of damages during …

Upholding “Triple Real” Vision For Ocean Negative Carbon Emissions To Advance Global Climate Governance, Nianzhi Jiao, Chuanlun Zhang, Tingwei Luo, Jihua Liu

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Addressing climate change is a formidable challenge for humanity, and achieving the temperature control goals of the Paris Agreement cannot rely solely on greenhouse gas emission reductions—negative emissions are an inevitable solution. The ocean, as the planet’s largest active carbon reservoir, holds immense potential for negative emissions, yet there is no internationally recognized pathway to realize it. The UNESCO-IOC international program of Ocean Negative Carbon Emissions (ONCE) builds on the original theory of the microbial carbon pump (MCP) and integrates known ocean carbon sequestration mechanisms BCMS (standing for biological carbon pump, carbonate counter pump, MCP, solubility carbon pump) to propose …

Characteristics, Protection, And Utilization Of Marine Ecosystems With Chinese Characteristics, Xin Liu, Si Zhang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the concept of “Martime Community with a Shared Future”. The ocean circulation, the mid-oceanic ridge, and the thermal lava flows constitute the dynamical systems of the maritime community, while the ocean circulation and the material and energy cycles are essential to the global ocean’s connectivity, the mid-oceanic ridge and its thermal lava flows underlie global submarine connectivity, and the marine circulation system, together with the marginal sea submarine system, supports the highly complex biological habitats in the China Sea. Coral island reefs and cold seeps constitute the most characteristic marine ecosystems in China. Conducting research, …

How Can Event Attribution Science Underpin Financial Decisions On Loss And Damage?, Dim Coumou, Paola A. Arias, Ana Bastos, Charlotte Kendra Z. Gotangco Gonzales, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Pandora Hope, Christopher Jack, Friederike Otto, Fahad Saeed, Olivia Serdeczny, Theodore G. Shepherd, Robert Vautard

Environmental Science Faculty Publications

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, the prompt operation of the Loss and Damage fund is of paramount importance. As decisions on resource disbursement at the international level, and investment strategies at the national level, loom, the climate science community’s role in providing fair and effective evidence is crucial. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers, but both ethical implications and deep uncertainty cannot be ignored. Considering these aspects, we articulate a vision that integrates established attribution methods and multiple lines of evidence within a coherent logical framework.

Further Developing Drought Early Warning Information Systems Using Mixed-Methods And Multiple Streams Of Data, Caily Claire Schwartz

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Drought is a complex phenomenon with varying degrees of impacts and monitoring methods. No drought is alike, creating a challenge for both water managers and communities. No area is immune to a drought. Due to the cyclical nature of drought events, clear information to those impacted is necessary to reduce risk and move towards proactive responses, as opposed to reactive responses. To better provide communication and mitigation tools, Drought Early Warning Information Systems (DEWIS) have been developed in various regions and contexts. To improve early warning, an understanding of the end user’s perceptions of risk, and the applicability of data …

Design And Evaluation Of An Esa-Based Method Of Ensemble Subsetting For A Wofs (Warn On Forecast-Like System), Daniel J. Butler

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Forecasting severe thunderstorm environments in the southeastern United States can be challenging due to mesoscale heterogeneities such as shortwave troughs, pre-existing airmass boundaries, cold fronts aloft, low-level jets, dry air intrusions, and mesoscale lows. To combat these challenges, ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) may be applied to a Warn-on-Forecast (WOF)-like ensemble to improve forecasts of severe convection through ensemble weighting and subsetting. Ensemble-based weighting and subsetting uses ensemble members that most accurately represent the thunderstorm environment in areas of mesoscale heterogeneity. This study creates and evaluates the ensemble-based weighting and subsetting in four cases of severe thunderstorm occurrence. The open parameter …

Enhancing Water Sustainability In North Africa: Literature Review And Synthesis Of Current Knowledge Gaps In Sudan, Osman M. A. Adam, Aaron R. Mittelstet, Derek M. Heeren, Troy E. Gilmore

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Presentations and White Papers

This study delves into the critical role of groundwater in addressing global water challenges, with a focus on the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in North Africa. Groundwater constitutes a source of potable water, irrigation, and industrial use, especially in arid regions where surface water is limited. We analyzed the status of water quantity, withdrawals, recharge, and geological characteristics in the NSAS, specifically in Sudan, Egypt, Libya, and Chad. Though the NSAS is largely an untapped resource, we evaluated various scenarios to determine the quantity of cropland that can be sustainably irrigated. The NSAS is located in an arid region, …

Spatio-Temporal Analysis Of The Roadside Transportation-Related Air Quality (Startraq 2022): Data-Driven Exposure Analysis By Transportation Modes, Jaymin Kwon, Yushin Ahn, Steve Chung

Mineta Transportation Institute

Particulate matter (PM) pollution poses significant health risks, influenced by various meteorological factors and seasonal variations. This study investigates the impact of temperature and other meteorological variables on PM10 and PM2.5 levels in Fresno County, known for high air pollution. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and generalized additive models (GAMs) assess the significance of these relationships. Analyzing data from Fresno County, we examine PM10 and PM2.5 levels across "hot" (June to August) and "cool" (September to May) seasons. Findings indicate PM10, both MLR and GAM models identify statistically significant variables, excluding temperature and wind direction in each season. However, during the …

Science And Technology Support For Climate Change Mitigation And Adaptation Over Western China, Huijun Wang, Huopo Chen

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

In the context of accelerating global warming, the western China has experienced intensified climate extremes, with frequent occurrences of meteorological, hydrological, and ecological disasters. The unpredictability of these events has increased, posing significant challenges to disaster prevention and mitigation as well as sustainable development in these areas. In this context, this study, based on a scientific assessment of the facts and risks of climate change in the western China, has identified several fundamental, critical, and strategic scientific and technological tasks to support the development of the western China in the field of climate change. Corresponding suggestions and measures are also …

Risk Of Climate Damage In The Mountain West, 2024, Taylor Volk, Isabelle G. Graham, Ivan Sun, Zachary Billot, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Environment

This fact sheet examines 2024 data on the estimated annual cost per person of damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and population from climate related disasters for the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The original report, “States at Greatest Risk of Climate Damage - 2024 Study,” by Jaclyn DeJohn and published by SmartAsset, includes data on climate disaster risk for all 50 states.