Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

A Century Of Climate Change For Fairbanks, Alaska, Gerd Wendler, Martha Shulski

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Climatological observations are available for Fairbanks, Interior Alaska, for up to 100 years. This is a unique data set for Alaska, insofar as it is of relatively high quality and without major breaks. Applying the best linear fit, we conclude that the mean annual temperature rose from -3.6°C to -2.2°C over the century, an increase of 1.4°C (compared to 0.8°C worldwide). This comparison clearly demonstrates the well-known amplification or temperature change for the polar regions. The observed temperature increase is neither uniform over the time period nor uniform throughout the course of a year. The winter, spring, and summer seasons …

Structured Decision Making As A Conceptual Framework To Identify Thresholds For Conservation And Management, Julien Martin, Michael C. Runge, James D. Nichols, Bruce C. Lubow, William L. Kendall

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation.

Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds …

Structured Decision Making As A Conceptual Framework To Identify Thresholds For Conservation And Management, Julien Martin, Michael C. Runge, James D. Nichols, Bruce C. Lubow, William L. Kendall2

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Threshold and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation.

Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring …

Behavior And Reproductive Success Of Rock Sandpipers Breeding On The Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska, Matthew Johnson, Jesse R. Conklin, Branden L. Johnson, Brian J. Mccaffery, Susan M. Haig, Jeffrey R. Walters

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We studied Rock Sandpiper (Calidris ptilocnemis) breeding behavior and monitored reproductive success from 1998 to 2005 on the Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska, USA. We banded 24 adults and monitored 45 nests. Annual return rate of adults ranged between 67 and 100%. Six pairs of Rock Sandpipers bred at our study site for ≥ 2 years, and among these we did not observe mate change (i.e., when both members of a pair returned and each mated with a new individual). Nests were typically initiated by mid-May and 53% of females laid second clutches if first clutches were lost through …

The Neoglacial Landscape And Human History Of Glacier Bay, Glacier Bay National Park And Preserve, Southeast Alaska, Usa, Cathy Connor, Greg Streveler, Austin Post, Daniel Monteith, Wanye Howell

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Neoglacial landscape of the Huna Tlingit homeland in Glacier Bay is recreated through new interpretations of the lower Bay’s fjordal geomorphology, late Quaternary geology and its ethnographic landscape. Geological interpretation is enhanced by 38 radiocarbon dates compiled from published and unpublished sources, as well as 15 newly dated samples. Neoglacial changes in ice positions, outwash and lake extents are reconstructed for c. 5500–200 cal. yr ago, and portrayed as a set of three landscapes at 1600–1000, 500–300 and 300–200 cal. yr ago. This history reveals episodic ice advance towards the Bay mouth, transforming it from a fjordal seascape into …

Droughtscape, Winter 2009, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Bastrop TX: Feb. 12 Central CA: Feb. 24, 26

La Niña May Keep West and Gulf Coast Dry

Big Canoes to Launch

2008 in Review

U.S. Feels Drought Impacts in 2008

NDMC Welcomes Widhalm, Sakamoto

Climate Modelers at Workshop Look to Sea Surface Temperatures for Drought Prediction

Toxicity Of Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers (De-71) In Chicken (Gallus Gallus), Mallard (Anas Platyrhynchos), And American Kestrel (Falco Sparverius) Embryos And Hatchlings, Moira A. Mckernan, Barnett A. Rattner, Robert C. Hales, Mary Ann Ottinger

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Embryonic survival, pipping and hatching success, and sublethal biochemical, endocrine, and histological endpoints were examined in hatchling chickens (Gallus gallus), mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and American kestrels (Falco sparverius) following air cell administration of a pentabrominated diphenyl ether (penta-BDE; DE-71) mixture (0.01–20 µg/g egg) or polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 126 (3,3’,4,4’,5-pentachlorobiphenyl; 0.002 µg/g egg). The penta-BDE decreased pipping and hatching success at concentrations of 10 and 20 µg/g egg in kestrels but had no effect on survival endpoints in chickens or mallards. Sublethal effects in hatchling chickens included ethoxyresorufin-O-dealkylase (EROD) induction and histological …

Possible Sources Of Archaeological Maize Found In Chaco Canyon And Aztec Ruin, New Mexico, Larry Benson, J. R. Stein, H. E. Taylor

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Maize played a major role in Chaco’s interaction with outlying communities in the southern Colorado Plateau. This paper seeks to determine where archaeological corn cobs brought to Chaco Canyon were grown. Strontium-isotope and trace-metal ratios of 180 soil-water and 18 surface-water sites in the Southern Colorado Plateau have revealed possible source areas for some of 37 archaeological corn cobs from Chaco Canyon and 10 archaeological corn cobs from Aztec Ruin, New Mexico. The most probable source areas for cobs that predate the middle-12th-century drought include several Upper Rio Chaco sites (not including Chaco Canyon). There are many potential source areas …

A Robust, Multisite Holocene History Of Drift Ice Off Northern Iceland: Implications For North Atlantic Climate, John T. Andrews, Dennis Darby, Dennis Eberle, Anne E. Jennings, Matthias Moros, Astrid Ogilvie

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

An important indicator of Holocene climate change is provided by evidence for variations in the extent of drift ice. A proxy for drift ice in Iceland waters is provided by the presence of quartz. Quantitative xray diffraction analysis of the < 2 mm sediment fraction was undertaken on 16 cores from around Iceland. The quartz weight (wt.)% estimates from each core were integrated into 250-yr intervals between −0.05 and 11.7 cal. ka BP. Median quartz wt.% varied between 0.2 and 3.4 and maximum values ranged between 2.8 and 11.8 wt.%. High values were attained in the early Holocene and minimum values were reached 6–7 cal. ka BP. Quartz wt.% then rose steadily during the late Holocene. Our data exhibit no correlation with counts on haematite-stained quartz (HSQ) grains from VM129-191 west of Ireland casting doubt on the ice-transport origin. A pilot study on the provenance of Fe oxide grains in two cores that cover the last 1.3 and 6.1 cal. ka BP indicated a large fraction of the grains between 1 and 6 cal. ka BP were from either Icelandic or presently unsampled sources. However, there was a dramatic increase in Canadian and Russian sources from the Arctic Ocean ~1 cal. ka BP. These data may indicate the beginning of an Arctic Oscillation-like climate mode.

History Of Wildlife Toxicology, Barnett A. Rattner

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The field of wildlife toxicology can be traced to

the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Initial

reports included unintentional poisoning of birds from

ingestion of spent lead shot and predator control agents,

alkali poisoning of waterbirds, and die-offs from maritime

oil spills. With the advent of synthetic pesticides in the

1930s and 1940s, effects of DDT and other pesticides were

investigated in free-ranging and captive wildlife. In

response to research findings in the US and UK, and the

publication of Silent Spring in 1962, public debate on the

hazards of pollutants arose and national contaminant

monitoring programs were initiated. …

Climate Trends Of The North American Prairie Pothole Region 1906–2000, Bruce Millett, W. Carter Johnson, Glenn Guntenspergen

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally …

Climate Trends Of The North American Prairie Pothole Region 1906–2000, Bruce Millett, W. Carter Johnson, Glenn R. Guntenspergen

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1◦C in the north to nearly 10◦C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally …

Progress In Strategic Research Areas, Scott R. Abella

Public Policy and Leadership Faculty Research

Three years ago through conversations with resource managers, assessing the status of knowledge of the scientific literature, and our own interests, we set forth several strategic research areas that we believed would be timely for advancing Mojave Desert conservation and management.

Droughtscape, Fall 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Washington Workshops Scheduled for November

Look for Warm West, Rainy Gulf, Easing Drought

New Drought Monitor Authors Profiled

Drought Impact Awareness Growing: Weather Forecast Offices, Geographers Highlight Issue

NDMC Takes on New Projects

Hundreds+ See NDMC at Ag Trade Show

NDMC Welcomes New Employees

Droughtscape, Fall 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Washington Workshops Scheduled for November

Look for Warm West, Rainy Gulf, Easing Drought

New Drought Monitor Authors Profiled

Drought Impact Awareness Growing: Weather Forecast Offices, Geographers Highlight Issue

NDMC Takes on New Projects

Hundreds+ See NDMC at Ag Trade Show

NDMC Welcomes New Employees

Droughtscape, Summer 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

VegDRI Expands West

Spring Rains Ease Drought But CA Still Dry

Scholar Donates Books

NDMC Welcomes Employees Bathke, Nothwehr

Latest Workshop Info Up

State Lawmakers to Focus on Drought Planning

Decadal Variation -- Clues to Droughts and Floods?

Droughtscape, Spring 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

San Angelo, April 24

Winter Sees Little Change in U.S. Drought

News Stories Reveal Array of Mitigation Strategies

NIDIS Wants You!

Sea Surface Temperatures Can Help Predict Drought

About DroughtScape

Recent Travels

California Drought, An Update April 2008, Baryohay Davidoff, Fawzi Karajeh, Dean Reynolds, Eric Senter, John Woodling

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. RECENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS

Introduction....................................................... 1

Water Year 2007 .................................................. 1

Drought in the Colorado River Basin ..................................................... 5

Drought and Dry Conditions in the Early 2000s .................................... 7

The 2001 Klamath Basin Drought Emergency ............................... 11

CHAPTER 2. PROGRAMMATIC AND INSTITUTIONAL UPDATES

The San Francisco Bay-Sacramento/San Joaquin River Delta.................................................................. 15

The Colorado River .................................................................... 16

State Financial Assistance to Local Agencies.................................... 17

Urban Water Management Planning ................................................... 20

Water Transfers .............................................................................. 20

Small Water Systems and Drought Preparedness ................................. 21

Plant Community Response To Fire: A Chronosequence Study, Scott R. Abella, E. Cayenne Engel

Public Policy and Leadership Faculty Research

Fires are becoming more prevalent events across the landscape in the southwestern US. Over the next several decades the already arid southwest is predicted to become warmer and drier, with longer summers, and an increase of “extreme” weather events such as lightening inducing thunderstorms. While the “hotter and drier” forecast may indicate less abundant plant life, and thus less available biomass for fuel, exotic invasive plant species are becoming more dominant across the landscape with increases in human travel and commerce. Exotic species (particularly many of the invasive grasses) are adding fuel for the fires to burn when the annuals …

From Debate To Design: Issues In Clean Energy And Climate Change Law And Policy, Leslie Parker, Jennifer Ronk, Rachel Maxwell, Bradford Gentry, Marijn Wilder, James Cameron

Yale School of the Environment Publications Series

A report on the work of the REIL Network 2007-2008

Introgression And Dispersal Among Spotted Owl (Strix Occidentalis) Subspecies, W. Chris Funk, Eric D. Forsman, Thomas D. Mullins, Susan M. Haig

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Population genetics plays an increasingly important role in the conservation and management of declining species, particularly for defining taxonomic units. Subspecies are recognized by several conservation organizations and countries and receive legal protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). Two subspecies of spotted owls, northern (Strix occidentalis caurina) and Mexican (S. o. lucida) spotted owls, are ESA-listed as threatened, but the California (S. o. occidentalis) spotted owl is not listed. Thus, determining the boundaries of these subspecies is critical for effective enforcement of the ESA. We tested the validity of previously recognized spotted …

Development And Evaluation Of Geochemical Methods For The Sourcing Of Archaeological Maize, L.V. Benson, H. E. Taylor, K.A. Peterson, B.D. Shattuck, C.A. Ramotnik, J.R. Stein

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Strontium (Sr)-isotope values on bone from deer mice pairs from 12 field sites in the Chaco Canyon area, New Mexico, were compared with isotope values of synthetic soil waters from the same fields. The data indicate that mice obtain Sr from near-surface sources and that soil samples collected at depths ranging from 25 to 95 cm contain Sr that is more accessible to the deep roots of maize; thus, synthetic soil solutions provide better data for the sourcing of archaeological maize. However, the Sr-isotope composition of mice may be more valuable in sourcing archaeological remains of animals such as rabbit, …

Tools And Technology Article: Estimation And Correction Of Visibility Bias In Aerial Surveys Of Wintering Ducks, Aaron T. Pearse, Patrick D. Gerard, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Richard M. Kaminski, Kenneth J. Reinecke

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wedand cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1-100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias …

Tools And Technology Article: Evaluation Of An Aerial Survey To Estimate Abundance Of Wintering Ducks In Mississippi, Aaron T. Pearse, Stephen J. Dinsmore, Richard M. Kaminski, Kenneth J. Reinecke

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Researchers have successfully designed aerial surveys that provided precise estimates of wintering populations of ducks over large physiographic regions, yet few conservation agencies have adopted these probability-based sampling designs for their surveys. We designed and evaluated an aerial survey to estimate abundance of wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), dabbling ducks (tribe Anatini) other than mallards, diving ducks (tribes Aythini, Mergini, and Oxyurini), and total ducks in western Mississippi, USA. We used design-based sampling of fixed width transects to estimate population indices (/), and we used model-based methods to correct population indices for visibility bias and estimate population abundance (N) for 14 …

Relations Between And Among Contaminant Concentrations And Biomarkers In Black Bass (Micropterus Spp.) And Common Carp (Cyprinus Carpio) From Large U.S. Rivers, 1995–2004, Jo Ellen Hinck, Christopher J. Schmitt, Mark R. Ellersieck, Donald E. Tillitt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Environmental contaminant and biomarker monitoring data from major U.S. river basins were summarized for black bass (Micropterus spp.) and common carp (Cyprinus carpio) sampled over a nine year period. Cumulative frequency distributions revealed taxon differences for many organochlorine residue concentrations, elemental contaminant concentrations, and biomarkers, but few gender differences were evident for chemical concentrations. Concentrations of dacthal, pentachloroanisole, p,p'-DDE, endosulfan sulfate, barium, cadmium, copper, manganese, lead, selenium, vanadium, and zinc were greater in carp than bass, but concentrations of mercury and magnesium were greater in bass. Gender differences were evident in bass for mercury and in carp …

Impact Of Drought On Prehistoric Western Native Americans, Larry Benson

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Some droughts that occurred during the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (approximately AD 800-1300) appear to have been catalysts for major changes in settlement patterns of two western Native American groups - the Lovelock culture in Nevada’s Great Basin and the Anasazi people of the Four Corners area. Both groups’ subsistence bases were impacted by diminished water supplies associated with prolonged drought, leading to the dispersal of these Native Americans from their former territories.

Tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions by Cook et al. (2004) indicate that over 50% of the western U.S. experienced drought conditions during the middle-12th and …

Grenetic Evidence Of Intercontinental Movement Of Avian Influenza In A Migratory Bird: The Northern Pintail (Anas Acuta), Anson V. Koehler, John M. Pearce, Paul L. Flint, J. Christian Franson, Hon S. Ip

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The role of migratory birds in the movement of the highly pathogenic (HP) avian influenza H5N1 remains a subject of debate. Testing hypotheses regarding intercontinental movement of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses will help evaluate the potential that wild birds could carry Asian-origin strains of HP avian influenza to North America during migration. Previous North American assessments of LPAI genetic variation have found few Asian reassortment events. Here, we present results from whole-genome analyses of LPAI isolates collected in Alaska from the northern pintail (Anas acuta), a species that migrates between North America and Asia. Phylogenetic analyses …

Droughtscape, Winter 2008, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Now Up & On-Line:

Winter 2008 Outlook and Oct.-Dec. ’07 Summary

NDMC Experts Serve as Resource for Media

Drought Hits Ag and Urban Interests in 2007

Climatological Summary of Drought in 2007

NDMC Welcomes Data Miner Bo Zhang

New Grant Awards

Apparent Tolerance Of Turkey Vultures (Cathartes Aura) To The Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Diclofenac, Barnett A. Rattner, Maria A. Whitehead, Grace Gasper, Carol U. Meteyer, William A. Link, Mark A. Taggart, Andrew A. Meharg, Oliver H. Pattee, Deborah J. Pain

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac is extremely toxic to Old World Gyps vultures (median lethal dose ~0.1–0.2 mg/kg), evoking visceral gout, renal necrosis, and mortality within a few days of exposure. Unintentional secondary poisoning of vultures that fed upon carcasses of diclofenac-treated livestock decimated populations in the Indian subcontinent. Because of the widespread use of diclofenac and other cyclooxygenase-2 inhibiting drugs, a toxicological study was undertaken in turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) as an initial step in examining sensitivity of New World scavenging birds. Two trials were conducted entailing oral gavage of diclofenac at doses ranging from 0.08 to …

Range-Wide Phylogeographic Analysis Of The Spotted Frog Complex (Rana Luteiventris And Rana Pretiosa) In Northwestern North America, W. Chris Funk, Christopher A. Pearl, Hope M. Draheim, Michael J. Adams, Thomas D. Mullins, Susan M. Haig

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The dynamic geological and climatic history of northwestern North America has made it a focal region for phylogeography. We conducted a range-wide phylogeographic analysis of the spotted frog complex (Rana luteiventris and Rana pretiosa) across its range in northwestern North America to understand its evolutionary history and the distribution of clades to inform conservation of R. pretiosa and Great Basin R. luteiventris, candidates for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. Mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a segment of the cytochrome b gene were obtained from 308 R. luteiventris and R. pretiosa from 96 sites. Phylogenetic analysis …