Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Global Air Temperature Variability Independent Of Sea-Surface Temperature Influences, Andrew C. Comrie, Gregory J. Mccabe

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Mean global surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST) display substantial variability on timescales ranging from annual to multi-decadal. We review the key recent literature on connections between global SAT and SST variability. Although individual ocean influences on SAT have been recognized, the combined contributions of worldwide SST variability on the global SAT signal have not been clearly identified in observed data.Weanalyze these relations using principal components of detrended SST, and find that removing the underlying combined annual, decadal, and multi-decadal SST variability from the SAT time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming trend in SAT since …

Gonadal Abnormalities In Frogs (Lithobates Spp.) Collected From Managed Wetlands In An Agricultural Region Of Nebraska, Usa, Diana M. Papoulias, Matt S. Schwarz, Lourdes Mena

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Nebraska’s Rainwater Basin (RWB) provides important wetland habitat for North American migratory birds. Concern exists that pesticide and nutrient runoff from surrounding row-crops enters wetlands degrading water quality and adversely affecting birds and wildlife. Frogs may be especially vulnerable. Plains leopard (Lithobates blairi) metamorphs from RWB wetlands with varying concentrations of pesticides were evaluated for a suite of biomarkers of exposure to endocrine active chemicals. Froglets had ovarian dysgenesis, high rates of testicular oocytes, and female-biased sex ratios however, there was no clear statistical association between pesticide concentrations and biomarkers. Data interpretation was hindered because timing and duration …

History And Evaluation Of National-Scale Geochemical Data Sets For The United States, David B. Smith, Steven M. Smith, John D. Horton

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Six national-scale, or near national-scale, geochemical data sets for soils or stream sediments exist for the United States. The earliest of these, here termed the ‘Shacklette’ data set, was generated by a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project conducted from 1961 to 1975. This project used soil collected from a depth of about 20 cm as the sampling medium at 1323 sites throughout the conterminous U.S. The National Uranium Resource Evaluation Hydrogeochemical and Stream Sediment Reconnaissance (NUREHSSR) Program of the U.S. Department of Energy was conducted from 1975 to 1984 and collected either stream sediments, lake sediments, or soils at more …

Remote Sensing Of Evapotranspiration For Operational Drought Monitoring Using Principles Of Water And Energy Balance, Gabriel B. Senay, Stefanie Bohms, James P. Verdin

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important component of the hydrologic budget because it reflects the exchange of mass and energy between the soil–water–vegetation system and the atmosphere. Prevailing weather conditions influence potential or reference ET through variables such as radiation, temperature, wind, and relativity humidity. In addition to these weather variables, actual ET (ET_a) is also affected by land cover type and condition, as well as soil moisture. The dependence of ET_a on land cover and soil moisture, and its direct relationship with carbon dioxide assimilation in plants, makes it an important variable for monitoring drought, crop yield, …

Development And Application Of Methods Used To Source Prehistoric Southwestern Maize: A Review, Larry Benson

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Archaeological cobs free of mineral contaminants should be used to source the soils in which they were grown. Mineral contaminants often contain much higher concentrations of metals than vegetal materials and can alter a cob’s apparent metal and heavy-isotope content. Cleaning a cob via immersion in an acid solution for more than a few minutes will result in the incongruent and sometimes complete leaching of metals, including strontium (Sr), from the cob. When using ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr to determine the location of potential agriculture fields, it is best to either integrate several depth-integrated soil samples or to integrate several …

On Thinning Of Chains In Mcmc, William A. Link, Mitchell J. Eaton

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

1. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation technique that has revolutionised the analysis of ecological data, allowing the fitting of complex models in a Bayesian framework. Since 2001, there have been nearly 200 papers using MCMC in publications of the Ecological Society of America and the British Ecological Society, including more than 75 in the journal Ecology and 35 in the Journal of Applied Ecology.

2. We have noted that many authors routinely ‘thin’ their simulations, discarding all but every kth sampled value; of the studies we surveyed with details on MCMC implementation, 40% reported thinning.

3. Thinning …

Spatially Explicit Models For Inference About Density In Unmarked Or Partially Marked Populations, Richard B. Chandler, J. Andrew Royle

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture-recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Futhermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified exludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be …

On Thinning Of Chains In Mcmc, William A. Link, Mitchell J. Eaton

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

1. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation technique that has revolutionised the analysis of ecological data, allowing the fitting of complex models in a Bayesian framework. Since 2001, there have been nearly 200 papers using MCMC in publications of the Ecological Society of America and the British Ecological Society, including more than 75 in the journal Ecology and 35 in the Journal of Applied Ecology.

2. We have noted that many authors routinely ‘thin’ their simulations, discarding all but every kth sampled value; of the studies we surveyed with details on MCMC implementation, 40% reported thinning.

3. Thinning …

Sea-Level History During The Last Interglacial Complex On San Nicolas Island, California: Implications For Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Processes, Paleozoogeography And Tectonics, Daniel R. Muhs, Kathleen R. Simmons, R. Randall Schumann, Lindsey T. Groves, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Deanna Laurel

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

San Nicolas Island, California has one of the best records of fossiliferous Quaternary marine terraces in North America, with at least fourteen terraces rising to an elevation of ~270 m above present-day sea level. In our studies of the lowest terraces, we identified platforms at 38–36 m (terrace 2a), 33–28 m (terrace 2b), and 13–8 m (terrace 1). Uranium-series dating of solitary corals from these terraces yields three clusters of ages: ~120 ka on terrace 2a (marine isotope stage [MIS] 5.5), ~120 and ~100 ka on terrace 2b (MIS 5.5 and 5.3), and ~80 ka (MIS 5.1) on terrace 1.We …

Tectonic Influences On The Preservation Of Marine Terraces: Old And New Evidence From Santa Catalina Island, California, R. Randall Schumann, Scott A. Minor, Daniel R. Muhs, Lindsey T. Groves, John P. Mcgeehan

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The California Channel Islands contain some of the best geologic records of past climate and sea-level changes, recorded in uplifted, fossil-bearing marine terrace deposits. Among the eight California Channel Islands and the nearby Palos Verdes Hills, only Santa Catalina Island does not exhibit prominent emergent marine terraces, though the same terrace-forming processes that acted on the other Channel Islands must also have occurred on Santa Catalina. We re-evaluated previous researchers' field evidence and examined new topographic, bathymetric, and stream-profile data in order to find possible explanations for the lack of obvious marine terrace landforms or deposits on the island today. …

On The Spatial And Temporal Variability Of Upwelling In The Southern Caribbean Sea And Its Influence On The Ecology Of Phytoplankton And Of The Spanish Sardine (Sardinella Aurita), Digna Tibisay Rueda-Roa

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Southern Caribbean Sea experiences a strong upwelling process along the coast from about 61°W to 75.5°W and 10-13°N. In this dissertation three aspects of this upwelling system are examined: (A) A mid-year secondary upwelling that was previously observed in the southeastern Caribbean Sea between June-July, when land based stations show a decrease in wind speed. The presence and effects of this upwelling along the whole southern Caribbean upwelling system were evaluated, as well as the relative forcing contribution of alongshore winds (Ekman Transport, ET) and wind-curl (Ekman Pumping, EP). (B) Stronger upwelling occurs in two particular regions, namely the …

Spring Migration Of Mallards From Arkansas As Determined By Satellite Telemetry, David George Krementz, Kwasi Asante, Luke W. Naylor

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We used satellite telemetry to document spring migration phenology, routes, stopover regions, and nesting sites of mallards Anas platyrhynchos marked in Arkansas during the winters of 2004–2007. Of the 143 marked mallards that migrated from Arkansas, they did so, on average, by mid-March. Mallards flew over the Missouri Ozarks and 42% made an initial stopover in Missouri, where they used areas that had larger rivers (Mississippi River, Missouri River) embedded in an agricultural landscape. From this stopover region they either migrated directly to the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) or they migrated north to Minnesota where they either moved next to …

Droughtscape, Fall 2011, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Drought Preparedness Community Options

Drought Likely to Persist, Intensify Across South

Database Will Help Planners Find Options

Impacts: Ag Losses, Fire, Water Restrictions

NDMC Welcomes International Visitors

New Drought Impact Reporter Online

Sim-Drought, Available Now at Select Agencies

Droughtscape, Summer 2011, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

New NDMC Website

Drought May Improve in Southeast and Southwest

Impacts Summary: Fire, Crop Loss and More

International Activities

NDMC Launches Ranch Planning Tool

Serving Data to Order

Workshop Builds Drought Planning Community

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

Building An Enhanced Drought Early Warning System (Dews): Tools And Services For Decision Support, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Outline

• About the NDMC
• Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Overview
• Tools (USDM, DIR, Atlas, VegDRI, + EPC/DRC)
• NDMC and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (NIDIS)
• Toward a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS)
• Summary
• Q&A

Droughts In The 21st Century And Beyond, Vijay P. Singh, Chris Funk, Jim Angel, Mark Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought: Science

• Characterization
• Mechanisms
• Modelings
• Prediction and Forecasting

Drought Monitoring

• Measurement
• Mapping
• Space
• Time
• Data Sharing
• Updating

Secretive Marsh Bird Species Co-Occurrences And Habitat Associations Across The Midwest, Usa, Jason R. Bolenbaugh, Sarah E. Lehnen, David G. Krementz

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Because secretive marsh birds are difficult to detect, population status and habitat use for these birds are not well known. We conducted repeated surveys for secretive marsh birds across 264 sites in the Upper Mississippi River and Great Lakes Joint Venture region to estimate abundance, occupancy, and detection probabilities during the 2008 and 2009 breeding seasons. We identified species groups based on observed species co-occurrences. Two species, least bittern Ixobrychus exilis and American bittern Botaurus lentiginosus, co-occurred with other species less often than expected by chance, and two species groups, rails (Virginia rail Rallus limicola and sora Porzana carolina) and …

Rapid Wetland Expansion During European Settlement And Its Implication For Marsh Survival Under Modern Sediment Delivery Rates, Matthew L. Kirwan, A. Brad Murray, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, D. Reide Corbett

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Fluctuations in sea-level rise rates are thought to dominate the formation and evolution of coastal wetlands. Here we demonstrate a contrasting scenario in which land-use–related changes in sediment delivery rates drive the formation of expansive marshland, and vegetation feedbacks maintain their morphology despite recent sediment supply reduction. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon dating in the Plum Island Estuary (Massachusetts, United States) suggest that salt marshes expanded rapidly during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries due to increased rates of sediment delivery following deforestation associated with European settlement. Numerical modeling coupled with the stratigraphic observations suggests that existing marshland could survive, but not …

Evaluation Of Drought Indices Based On Thermal Remote Sensing Of Evapotranspiration Over The Continental United States, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher R. Hain, Brian Wardlow, Agustin Pimstein, John R. Mecikalski, William P. Kustas

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The reliability of standard meteorological drought indices based on measurements of precipitation is limited by the spatial distribution and quality of currently available rainfall data. Furthermore, they reflect only one component of the surface hydrologic cycle, and they cannot readily capture nonprecipitation-based moisture inputs to the land surface system (e.g., irrigation) that may temper drought impacts or variable rates of water consumption across a landscape. This study assesses the value of a new drought index based on remote sensing of evapotranspiration (ET). The evaporative stress index (ESI) quantifies anomalies in the ratio of actual to potential ET (PET), mapped using …

Effects Of Rodent Species, Seed Species, And Predator Cues On Seed Fate, Kelly J. Sivy, Steven M. Ostoja, Eugene W. Schupp, Susan Durham

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Seed selection, removal and subsequent management by granivorous animals is thought to be a complex interaction of factors including qualities of the seeds themselves (e.g., seed size, nutritional quality) and features of the local habitat (e.g. perceived predator risk). At the same time, differential seed selection and dispersal is thought to have profound effects on seed fate and potentially vegetation dynamics. In a feeding arena, we tested whether rodent species, seed species, and indirect and direct predation cues influence seed selection and handling behaviors (e.g., scatter hoarding versus larder hoarding) of two heteromyid rodents, Ord’s kangaroo rat (Dipodomys ordii) and …

Droughtscape, Spring 2011, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Register Now

Forecasters Say Dryness in TX and SW to Continue

Drought Planning, The Game: Coming Soon

Ding Takes New Post

South and Southwest Lose Crops, Fight Fires

Drought Monitor Authors Review Enhanced GIS Tools and New Processes

Farmer Perceptions Of Sustainable Agriculture Practices And Drought Risk Reduction In Nebraska, Usa, Cody L. Knutson, Tonya Haigh, Michael J. Hayes, Melissa Widhalm, J. Nothwehr, M. Kleinschmidt, L. Graf

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Social factors, such as farming methods, have an impact on farm vulnerability to drought, but have received little research or policy attention. Some researchers and advocates have argued that sustainable agriculture systems are less vulnerable to climate risk than conventional systems because sustainable agriculture requires producers to have skills promoting adaptability. In this paper, we investigate producers’ perceptions on the use of sustainable agriculture in reducing drought risk, and what they believe would help them better adapt to drought. We surveyed and interviewed farmer members of two sustainable agriculture organizations in Nebraska, USA, during a multi-year drought period from 1999 …

The Global Drought Monitor Portal, Michael J. Brewer, Richard R. Heim Jr.

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Drought monitoring, assessment, response, mitigation, adaptation, and early warning systems have been created in a number of countries around the world, and some regional and continental efforts have been successful. However, the creation of a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS) remains elusive. A GDEWS incorporates forecasting and research improvements, in addition to monitoring, impact, planning, mitigation and adaptation and recovery information. At a series of workshops in 2010, the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) agreed to take the first step toward a GDEWS, the formation of a Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). This effort currently covers three …

State Of The Climate In 2010, Jessica Blunden, Derek S. Arndt, Molly O. Baringer

United States Department of Commerce: Staff Publications

Several large-scale climate patterns influenced climate conditions and weather patterns across the globe during 2010. The transition from a warm El Niño phase at the beginning of the year to a cool La Niña phase by July contributed to many notable events, ranging from record wetness across much of Australia to historically low Eastern Pacific basin and near-record high North Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The remaining five main hurricane basins experienced below- to well-below-normal tropical cyclone activity. The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was a major driver of Northern Hemisphere temperature patterns during 2009/10 winter and again in late …

Estimating Age From Recapture Data: Integrating Incremental Growth Measures With Ancillary Data To Infer Age-At-Length, Mitchell J. Eaton, William A. Link

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models …

The Role Of Demographic Compensation Theory In Incidental Take Assessments For Endangered Species, Conor P. Mcgowan, Mark R. Ryan, Michael C. Runge, Joshua J. Millspaugh, Jean Fitts Cochrane

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Many endangered species laws provide exceptions to legislated prohibitions through incidental take provisions as long as take is the result of unintended consequences of an otherwise legal activity. These allowances presumably invoke the theory of demographic compensation, commonly applied to harvested species, by allowing limited harm as long as the probability of the species’ survival or recovery is not reduced appreciably. Demographic compensation requires some density-dependent limits on survival or reproduction in a species’ annual cycle that can be alleviated through incidental take. Using a population model for piping plovers in the Great Plains, we found that when the population …

Selenium In Birds, Harry M. Ohlendorf, Gary H. Heinz

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Selenium (Se) is a metalloid trace element that birds and other wildlife need in small amounts for good health. The main purpose of this chapter is to interpret tissue concentrations of Se. However, because food is the main source of Se accumulation for birds and other wildlife, and because dietary concentrations for effects on bird reproduction have been reported, we also provide interpretive information on Se in the diet.

Se deficiencies in domestic poultry and livestock occur in some parts of the world and must be corrected by additions of Se to the diet. However, the range of dietary concentrations …

History Of Wildlife Toxicology And The Interpretation Of Contaminant Concentrations In Tissues, Barnett A. Rattner, Anton M. Scheuhammer, John E. Ellott

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The detection and interpretation of contaminants in tissues of wildlife belongs to the field of toxicology, a scientific discipline with a long, intriguing, and illustrious history (reviewed by Hayes 1991, Gallo 2001, Gilbert and Hayes 2006, Wax 2006). We review its history briefly, to provide a context for understanding the use of tissue residues in toxicology, and to explain how their use has developed over time. Because so much work has been conducted on mercury, and dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), separate case histories are included that describe the evolution of the use of tissue concentrations to assess exposure and …

Droughtscape, Winter 2011, Kelly Smith

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Register for the U.S. Drought Monitor Forum

La Niña Brings Southeast, Southwest Drought

International Efforts

Drought Returns in 2010

Impacts Emerge “Before” Summer Drought in East

October-December Quarterly Impacts Summary

Climate Adaptation for Local Government

NDMC Elicits Missouri River Basin Recollections

Woudenberg Coordinates Educational Booklet