Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

The Geochemistry Of Loess: Asian And North American Deposits Compared, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Loess is widely distributed over Asia and North America and constitutes one of the most important surficial deposits that serve as terrestrial records of the Quaternary. The oldest Pleistocene loess in China is likely ∼2.6 Ma, thus spanning much or all of the Pleistocene. In North America, most loess is no older than the penultimate glacial period, with the exception of Alaska, where the record may go back to ∼3.0 Ma. On both continents, loess deposits date primarily to glacial periods, and interglacial or interstadial periods are represented by paleosols. Both glacial and non-glacial sources of silts that comprise the …

Do Advisors Perceive Climate Change As An Agricultural Risk? An In-Depth Examination Of Midwestern U.S. Ag Advisors’ Views On Drought, Climate Change, And Risk Management, Sarah P. Church, Michael Dunn, Nicholas Babin, Amber Saylor Mase, Tonya Haigh, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Through the lens of the Health Belief Model and Protection Motivation Theory, we analyzed interviews of 36 agricultural advisors in Indiana and Nebraska to understand their appraisals of climate change risk, related decision making processes and subsequent risk management advice to producers. Most advisors interviewed accept that weather events are a risk for US Midwestern agriculture; however, they are more concerned about tangible threats such as crop prices. There is not much concern about climate change among agricultural advisors. Management practices that could help producers adapt to climate change were more likely to be recommended by conservation and Extension advisors, …

Agricultural Responses To Climate Change: A Study Of Adaptive Farming Methods In Kizanda Village, Bailey Smith-Helman

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Agriculture is vital to the economic and social systems in Tanzania, composing 30% of the country’s GDP as well as 80% of employment (FAO, 2014). Despite agriculture’s important role, it remains one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Current trends project global average temperature to increase by 0.8-2.6 degrees Celsius, leaving farmers to face changes in rainfall, soil quality, and new pests and diseases (IPCC, 2007). Farmers will be forced to adapt to the changing climate if they are to sustain their livelihoods and the Tanzanian economy. For these reasons, it is important to understand the types of …

Droughtscape, Fall 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought worsens in northern Great Plains

Drought takes toll on agriculture, livestock

Study examines ag advisors’ views on climate change

New drought definition could lead to better preparation

McCook takes big steps toward drought readiness

Group hopes to map drought planning process for Korea

South African researcher working to forecast drought

Cultivating drought preparedness in South Africa

Evaluation Of Simple Geochemical Indicators Of Aeolian Sand Provenance: Late Quaternary Dune Fields Of North America Revisited, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Dune fields of Quaternary age occupy large areas of the world's arid and semiarid regions. Despite this, there has been surprisingly little work done on understanding dune sediment provenance, in part because many techniques are time-consuming, prone to operator error, experimental, highly specialized, expensive, or require sophisticated instrumentation. Provenance of dune sand using K/Rb and K/Ba values in K-feldspar in aeolian sands of the arid and semiarid regions of North America is tested here. Results indicate that K/Rb and K/Ba can distinguish different river sands that are sediment sources for dunes and dune fields themselves have distinctive K/Rb and K/Ba …

Cytonuclear Discordance In The Florida Everglades Invasive Burmese Python (Python Bivittatus) Population Reveals Possible Hybridization With The Indian Python (P. Molurus), Margaret E. Hunter, Nathan A. Johnson, Brian J. Smith, Michelle C. Davis, John S.S. Butterfield, Ray W. Snow, Kristen M. Hart

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The invasive Burmese python (Python bivittatus) has been reproducing in the Florida Everglades since the 1980s. These giant constrictor snakes have caused a precipitous decline in small mammal populations in southern Florida following escapes or releases from the commercial pet trade. To better understand the invasion pathway and genetic composition of the population, two mitochondrial (mtDNA) loci across 1,398 base pairs were sequenced on 426 snakes and 22 microsatellites were assessed on 389 snakes. Concatenated mtDNA sequences produced six haplotypes with an average nucleotide and haplotype diversity of π = 0.002 and h = 0.097, respectively. Samples collected …

Moving From Generalisations To Specificity About Mangrove –Saltmarsh Dynamics, Kerrylee Rogers, Ken W. Krauss

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Spatial and temporal variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival affects the distribution of mangrove, particularly near their latitudinal limit, where mangrove expansion into saltmarsh is conspicuous. In this paper the spatial variability in mangrove distribution and variability in factors influencing mangrove establishment and survival during the Quaternary period are reviewed, focusing on research at latitudinal limits in Australia and mainland USA. Despite similarities in the response of mangrove to some drivers, the expression of these drivers is both spatially and temporally variable, demonstrating the need for analyses of mangrove-saltmarsh dynamics to move beyond generalizations and incorporate regional and …

Droughtscape, Summer 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought policy write shops conclude in Caribbean

Drought encroaches on Northern Plains in second quarter

Impact tool racks up submissions in second quarter

Maps on new website highlight drought effects on ag industry

Centers release new flash drought tool: QuickDRI

NDMC contributes to EU report on disaster risk management

Groups earn Climate Adaptation award for work with tribes

NDMC, ICPAC director talk collaboration on drought in Greater Horn of Africa

Up next in MENA: Drought vulnerability assessments

Rodenticide Incidents Of Exposure And Adverse Effects On Non-Raptor Birds, Nimish B. Vyas

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Interest in the adverse effects of rodenticides on birds has focused primarily on raptors. However, non-raptor birds are also poisoned (rodenticide exposure resulting in adverse effects including mortality) by rodenticides through consumption of the rodenticide bait and contaminated prey. A literature search for rodenticide incidents (evidence of exposure to a rodenticide, adverse effects, or exposure to placebo baits) involving non-raptor birds returned 641 records spanning the years 1931 to 2016. The incidents included 17 orders, 58 families, and 190 non-raptor bird species. Nineteen anticoagulant and non-anticoagulant rodenticide active ingredients were associated with the incidents. The number of incidents and species …

Integrating Future Scenario-Based Crop Expansion And Crop Conditions To Map Switchgrass Biofuel Potential In Eastern Nebraska, Usa, Yingxin Gu, Bruce K. Wylie

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future …

First Na Lidar Measurements Of Turbulence Heat Flux, Thermal Diffusivity, And Energy Dissipation Rate In The Mesopause Region, Yafang Guo, Alan Z. Liu, Chester S. Gardner

Publications

Turbulence is ubiquitous in the mesopause region, where the atmospheric stability is low and wave breaking is frequent. Measuring turbulence is challenging in this region and is traditionally done by rocket soundings and radars. In this work, we show for the first time that the modern Na wind/temperature lidar located at Andes Lidar Observatory in Cerro Pachón, Chile, is able to directly measure the turbulence perturbations in temperature and vertical wind between 85 and 100 km. Using 150 h of lidar observations, we derived the frequency (ω) and vertical wave number (m) spectra for both gravity …

Sensitivity Of Mangrove Range Limits To Climate Variability, Kyle C. Cavanaugh, Michael J. Osland, Remi Bardou, Gustavo Hinojosa-Arango, Juan M. Lopez-Vivas, John D. Parker, Andre S. Rovai

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Aim: Correlative distribution models have been used to identify potential climatic controls of mangrove range limits, but there is still uncertainty about the relative importance of these factors across different regions. To provide insights into the strength of climatic control of different mangrove range limits, we tested whether temporal variability in mangrove abundance increases near range limits and whether this variability is correlated with climatic factors thought to control large scale mangrove distributions.

Location: North and South America.

Time period: 1984–2011.

Major taxa studied: Avicennia germinans, Avicennia schuaeriana, Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa.

Methods: We characterized temporal variability in the enhanced …

Δ13c And Δ15n In The Endangered Kemp’S Ridley Sea Turtle Lepidochelys Kempii After The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Kimberly J. Reich, Melania C. López-Castro, Donna J. Shaver, Claire Iseton, Kristen M. Hart, Michael J. Hooper, Christopher J. Schmitt

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The Deepwater Horizon explosion in April 2010 and subsequent oil spill released 3.19 × 106 barrels (5.07 × 108 l) of MC252 crude oil into important foraging areas of the endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys kempii (Lk) in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM). We measured δ13C and δ15N in scute biopsy samples from 33 Lk nesting in Texas during the period 2010 to 2012. Of these, 27 were equipped with satellite transmitters and were tracked to traditional foraging areas in the northern GoM after the spill. Differences in δ13C between the oldest and newest scute layers from 2010 …

Vegetation Response To Invasive Tamarix Control In Southwestern U.S. Rivers: A Collaborative Study Including 416 Sites, Eduardo Gonzalez, Anna A. Sher, Robert M. Anderson, Robin F. Bay, Daniel W. Bean, Gabriel J. Bissonnete, Berenger Bourgeois, David J. Cooper, Kara Dohrenwend, Kim D. Eichhorst, Hishma El Waer, Deborah K. Kennard, Rebecca Harms-Weissinger, Annie L. Henry, Lori J. Makarick, Steven M. Ostoja, Lindsay V. Reynolds, W. Wright Robinson, Patrick B. Shafroth

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Most studies assessing vegetation response following control of invasive Tamarix trees along southwestern U.S. rivers have been small in scale (e.g., river reach), or at a regional scale but with poor spatial-temporal replication, and most have not included testing the effects of a now widely used biological control. We monitored plant composition following Tamarix control along hydrologic, soil, and climatic gradients in 244 treated and 172 reference sites across six U.S. states. This represents the largest comprehensive assessment to date on the vegetation response to the four most common Tamarix control treatments. Biocontrol by a defoliating beetle (treatment 1) reduced …

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Diet Composition Of Age-0 Fishes In Created Habitats Of The Lower Missouri River, Trevor A. Starks, James M. Long

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Channelization of the Missouri River has greatly reduced the availability of shallow water habitats used by many larval and juvenile fishes and contributed to imperilment of floodplain-dependent biota. Creation of small side channels, or chutes, is being used to restore shallow water habitat and reverse negative environmental effects associated with channelization. In the summer of 2012, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers collected early life stages of fishes from constructed chutes and nearby unrestored shallow habitats at six sites on the Missouri River between Rulo, Nebraska and St. Louis, Missouri. We compared the diets of two abundant species of fishes …

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Trends Across Wyoming, David R. Edmunds, Cameron L. Aldridge, Michael S. O'Donnell, Adrian P. Monroe

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ~24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for …

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Taphonomic Problems In Reconstructing Sea-Level History From The Late Quaternary Marine Terraces Of Barbados, Daniel R. Muhs, Kathleen R. Simmons

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Although uranium series (U-series) ages of growth-position fossil corals are important to Quaternary sea-level history, coral clast reworking from storms can yield ages on a terrace dating to more than one high-sea stand, confounding interpretations of sea-level history. On northern Barbados, U-series ages corals from a thick storm deposit are not always younger with successively higher stratigraphic positions, but all date to the last interglacial period (~127 ka to ~112 ka), Marine Isotope Substage (MIS) 5.5. The storm deposit ages are consistent with the ages of growth-position corals found at the base of the section and at landward localities on …

Balancing Stability And Flexibility In Adaptive Governance: An Analysis Of Tools Available In U.S. Environmental Law, Robin Kundis Craig, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Craig R. Allen, Craig Anthony (Tony) Arnold, Hannah E. Birge, Hannah Birge, Daniel A. Decaro, Alexander K. Fremier, Alexander K. Fremier, Hannah Gosnell, Edella C. Schlager

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased …

Smartphone Technologies And Bayesian Networks To Assess Shorebird Habitat Selection, Sara L. Zeigler, E. Robert Thieler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Nathaniel G. Plant, Megan Hines, James D. Fraser, Daniel H. Catlin

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in …

Camera System Considerations For Geomorphic Applications Of Sfm Photogrammetry, Adam R. Mosbrucker, Jon J. Major, Kurt R. Spicer, John Pitlick

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The availability of high-resolution, multi-temporal, remotely sensed topographic data is revolutionizing geomorphic analysis. Three-dimensional topographic point measurements acquired from structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry have been shown to be highly accurate and cost-effective compared to laser-based alternatives in some environments. Use of consumer-grade digital cameras to generate terrain models and derivatives is becoming prevalent within the geomorphic community despite the details of these instruments being largely overlooked in current SfM literature.

A practical discussion of camera system selection, configuration, and image acquisition is presented. The hypothesis that optimizing source imagery can increase digital terrain model (DTM) accuracy is tested by evaluating accuracies …