Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Droughtscape, Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps

California pulls out of drought

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map

Drought center releases 2016 annual report

Book chapter focuses on drought and health

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions

Separating Decadal Global Water Cycle Variability From Sea Level Rise, B. D. Hamlington, J. T. Reager, M.-H. Lo, K. B. Karnauskas, R. R. Leben

CCPO Publications

Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both …

Groundwater And Tidal Controls On Wetland Hydrology, Julie J. Metz Wetland Mitigation Bank, Woodbridge, Virginia, Benjamin Stuart Hiza

OES Theses and Dissertations

Julie J. Metz Wetlands Mitigation Bank, a 92-hectare freshwater wetland located in Woodbridge, Virginia, borders the tidally-influenced Neabsco Creek. Seven pods separated by earthen berms were built by Wetland Studies and Solutions Inc. (WSSI) in 1995 and 1997 by removing the toe of small sandy alluvial fans and covering the underlying coarse gravel bed with a low permeability cap. The basal Quaternary gravels were deposited in a creek valley incised into a thick sand-and-clay Cretaceous delta. The alluvial-fan apron developed at the base of steep slopes along the sides of the valley. Pressure transducer data from five monitoring wells along …

On The Relationship Between Spring Nao And Snowmelt In The Upper Southwestern United States, Boksoon Myoung, Seung Hee Kim, Jinwon Kim, Menas Kafatos

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

This study examines the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and snowmelt in spring in the upper southwestern states of the United States (UP_SW) including California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, using SNOTEL datasets for 34 yr (1980–2014). Statistically significant negative correlations are found between NAO averages in the snowmelt period and timings of snowmelt (i.e., positive NAO phases in spring enhance snowmelt, and vice versa). It is also found that correlations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and snowmelt are negligible in the region. The NAO–snowmelt relationship is most pronounced below the 2800-m level; above this level, the relationship becomes weaker. …

Predicting The U.S. Drought Monitor Using Precipitation, Soil Moisture, And Evapotranspiration Anomalies. Part Ii: Intraseasonal Drought Intensification Forecasts, David J. Lorenz, Jason A. Otkin, Mark Svoboda, Christopher R. Hain, Martha C. Anderson, Yafang Zhong

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Probabilistic forecasts of U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) intensification over 2-, 4-, and 8-week time periods are developed based on recent anomalies in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. These statistical forecasts are computed using logistic regression with cross validation. While recent precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture do provide skillful forecasts, it is found that additional information on the current state of the USDM adds significant skill to the forecasts. The USDM state information takes the form of a metric that quantifies the ‘‘distance’’ from the next-higher drought category using a nondiscrete estimate of the current USDM state. This adds skill because …

Umphlett Qci March 2017, Natalie Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Mountain Snowpack

Christmas Day Storm

Heavy Fuels Increase Fire Risk

Early Warmth Causes Concerns

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

NOAA Spring Flood Outlook

Delta‐Flux: An Eddy Covariance Network For A Climate‐Smart Lower Mississippi Basin, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, James R. Rigby, Michele L. Reba, Saseendran S. Anapalli, Joydeep Bhattacharjee, Ken W. Krauss, Lu Liang, Martin A. Locke, Kimberly A. Novick, Ruixiu Sui, Kosana Suvocarev, Paul M. White Jr.

Biological and Agricultural Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Networks of remotely monitored research sites are increasingly the tool used to study regional agricultural impacts on carbon and water fluxes. However, key national networks such as the National Ecological Observatory Network and AmeriFlux lack contributions from the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB), a highly productive agricultural area with opportunities for soil carbon sequestration through conservation practices. The authors describe the rationale to create the new Delta‐Flux network, which will coordinate efforts to quantify carbon and water budgets at seventeen eddy covariance flux tower sites in the LMRB. The network structure will facilitate climate‐smart management strategies based on production‐scale and …

Mono Lake Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Mono Lake Basin Data\ Depth CalAge TIC TOTC TOC 13C 18O

Mono Lake short cores.xlsx 03.03.2014 19:59:44 0.06 xlsx

Depth PSV age 18O 13C

TIC for Wilson Crk Fm.xlsx 02.03.2014 16:07:10 0.03 xlsx

Ostracode 18O and TE data Wilson Crk Fm.xlsx 10.11.2017 17:43:18 0.12 xlsx

Depth, calendar age, TIC, TOTC, TOC, ¹³C, and ¹⁸O of Mono Lake short cores were reported in:

Benson, L., Linsley, B., Smoot, J., Mensing, S., Lund, S., Stine, S., and Sarna-Wojcicki, A., 2003, Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the climate of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada: Quaternary Research. Quaternary Research …

Summer Lake Basin Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Summer Lake Basin

Name Date modified Time modified Size MB Extension

Summer Lake Basin\

Depth PSV Age 13C 18O Summer Lake B&B core.xlsx 03.03.2014 16:51:12 0.03 xlsx

In the Summer Lake Basin folder:

Depth, PSV age, ¹⁸O, ¹³C data for Summer Lake core B&B are reported in:

Benson, L., Lund, S., Negrini, R., Linsley, B., and Zic, M. 2003. Response of North American Great Basin lakes to Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. Quaternary Science Reviews 22: 2,239-2,251.

General Comment: In most cases an age model based on ¹⁴C analyses is not included with the datasets although ones were created for …

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Great Basin Surface Water And Precipitation Isotope Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

In the Great Basin Surface Water and Precipitation Isotope Data folder:

Farad, Nixon, and Pyramid Lake 18O data were reported in:

Benson, L.V., 1994, Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in the Truckee River-Pyramid Lake surface-water system. 1. Data analysis and extraction of paleoclimatic information: Limnology and Oceanography, vol. 39, p. 344-355. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/usgsstaffpub/1015

Spring chemistry around Pyramid Lake data were reported in:

Benson, L.V., 1994, Carbonate deposition, Pyramid Lake subbasin, Nevada: 1. Sequence of formation and elevational distribution of carbonate deposits (tufas): Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, vol. 109, p. 55-87.

Benson, L.V., Kashgarian M., and Rubin, M., 1995, Carbonate deposition, …

High Plains Regional Climate Center (Poster)

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

The HPRCC provides the public with several ways to access climate data and information. Whether via direct contact, website access, or through a subscription to one of HPRCC’s online services, users can acquire a variety of climate data products, such as: • Near Real-Time and Historical Climate Data • National and Regional Climate Data Maps • Agricultural Climate Products • Monthly, Quarterly, and Annual Regional Climate Summaries

A Model-Based Assessment Of Potential Impacts Of Man-Made Reservoirs On Precipitation, Jesse Winchester, Rezaul Mahmood, William Rodgers, Faisal Hossain, Eric Rappin, Joshua D. Durkee, Themis Chronis

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Land-use land-cover change (LULCC) plays an important role in weather and climate systems. Human modifications of land cover include building reservoirs and thus creating artificial lakes for multipurpose use. In this research, the authors have completed a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model–based assessment of impacts of two large parallel lakes on precipitation. This area is located in the western part of the states of Kentucky and Tennessee and known as the Land between the Lakes (LBL). To determine the impacts, this study has replaced the lakes with grass, deciduous forests, and bare soil and conducted model simulations for three …

The Effect Of The Dry Line And Convective Initiation On Drought Evolution Over Oklahoma During The 2011 Drought, Paul X. Flanagan, Jeffrey B. Basara, Bradley G. Illston, Jason A. Otkin

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet and high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations were used to evaluate the effect that the dry line and large-scale atmospheric patterns had on drought evolution during 2011. Mesonet observations showed that a “dry” and “wet” pattern developed across Oklahoma due to anomalous atmospheric patterns. The location of the dry line varied due to this “dry” and “wet” pattern, with the average dry line location around 1.5∘ longitude further to the east than climatology.Model simulations were used to further quantify the impact of variable surface conditions on dry line evolution and convective initiation (CI) …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech

Owens Lake Core Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

In the Owens Lake core data folder:

¹⁴C ages for cores OL84 and OL90 were reported in:

Benson, L.V., Burdett, J.W., Kashgarian, M., Lund, S.P., Phillips, F.M., and Rye, R.O., 1996, Climatic and hydrologic Oscillations in the Owens Lake basin and adjacent Sierra Nevada, California: Science, vol. 274, p. 746-749.

Benson, L.V., 1999, Records of millennial-scale climate change from the Great Basin of the Western United States: In Clark, P., Webb, R., Keigwin, L., eds., Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales, American Geophysical Union Monograph 112, p. 203-225.

Benson, L., 2003, Western Lakes: Chapter 9 in …

Paleomagnetic Secular Variation (Psv) Ages Of Wilson Crk, Plc08-1, Bl04-4, Ol90-1 And 2, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

In the paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) ages folder:

The data for OL90-1 and 2 have not been published

The data for PLC08-1 are reported in:

Benson, L.V., Smoot, J.P., Lund, S.P., Mensing, S.A., Rye, R.O., 2013. Insights from a synthesis of old and new climate-proxy data from the western Lahontan Basin for the period 48 to 11.5 ka. Quaternary International310, 62-82.

Lund, S., Benson, L., Negrini, R., Liddicoat, J., Mensing, S., 2016. A full-vector paleomagnetic secular variation record (PSV) from Pyramid Lake (Nevada) from 47-17 ka: Evidence for the successive Mono Lake and Laschamp Excursions. Earth and Planetary Sciences …

Pyramid And Winnemucca Lake Basin Carbonate Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

In the Pyramid and Winnemucca lake basin carbonate data folder:

New unpublished and previously published ¹⁴C and calibrated ages for materials in the Winnemucca Caves are reported in the table and in the references listed below the table

¹⁴C and calibrated ages for Winnemucca Lake Basin carbonates are reported in:

Benson, L.V., Hattori, E.M., Southon, J., Aleck, B., 2013. Dating North America’s oldest petroglyphs, Winnemucca Lake subbasin, Nevada. Journal of Archaeological Science 40, 4466-4476.

Tufa ⁸⁷Sr, ¹⁸O, and ¹³C data are reported in:

Benson, L.V., Smoot, J.P., Lund, S.P., Mensing, S.A., Rye, R.O., 2013. Insights …

Reconstructed Discharge For Truckee River, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Reconstructed Discharge for Truckee River

Name Date modified Time modified Size MB Extension

Reconstructed Discharge Truckee R\ Reconstructed Discharge for Truckee River.xlsx 11.11.2017 22:40:52 0.02 xlsx

Reconstructed discharge of the Truckee River was made considering losses to evaporation in all upstream reservoirs and corrected for diversion from the Derby Dam to the Newlands area. These data were never previously published.

General Comment: In most cases an age model based on ¹⁴C analyses is not included with the datasets although ones were created for the original publications. Given the general problems with ¹⁴C ages in the lakes of the …

Walker Lake Basin Data, Larry V. Benson, Steve P. Lund

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Walker Lake Basin Data

Name Date modified Time modified Size MB Extension

Walker Lake Core 84-8 isotope and age data.xls 27.01.2018 15:25:52 0.03 xls

Walker Lake core WL002 PSV age and chemical data.xlsx 09.02.2018 20:04:50 0.03 xlsx

In the Walker Lake Basin folder:

Depth, ¹⁴C age (not corrected for reservoir effect), ¹⁸O, ¹³C data for core 84-8 are reported in:

Benson, L. V., 1988, Preliminary paleolimnologic data for the Walker Lake subbasin, California and Nevada: United States Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 87-4258, 50 p. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 240: 497-507.

Depth, PSV age, TIC , ¹⁸O, …

Pyramid Lake Core Data, Larry V. Benson

United States Geological Survey: Datasets

Pyramid Lake Core Data

14C and calibrated ages for core PLC08-1.xlsx 01.03.2014 19:45:30 0.01 xlsx

14C and calibrated ages for core PLC92B.xlsx 04.03.2014 16:41:30 0.01 xlsx

14C and calibrated ages for core PLC97-3.xlsx 01.03.2014 19:50:48 0.01 xlsx

CalKa Depth TOC TIC 18O 13C for PLC97-1.xlsx 09.11.2017 20:51:22 0.04 xlsx

Depth 14CAge Corrected 14C AGE CAL Age PLC98-4.xlsx 15.11.2017 18:26:12 0.01 xlsx

Depth 180 13C TOTC TOC TIC porosity CYBP Box Core PLB98-2.xlsx 01.03.2014 20:00:46 0.01 xlsx

Depth CalAge TIC TOTC TOC 13C 18O PLC98-4.xlsx 02.03.2014 00:32:20 0.05 xlsx

Depth Equivalent Depth in PLC08-1 PSV age 180 13C TIC TOC for …

Compensatory Response Of Fathead Minnow Larvae Following A Pulsed In-Situ Exposure To A Seasonal Agricultural Runoff Event, Jonathan M. Ali, John Sangster, Daniel D. Snow, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt, Alan S. Kolok

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Agriculturally-dominated waterways such as those found throughout the Midwestern United States often experience seasonal pulses of agrichemical contaminants which pose a potential hazard to aquatic organisms at varying life stages. The objective of this study was to characterize the developmental plasticity of fathead minnow larvae in a natural environment subject to a seasonal episodic perturbation in the form of a complex mixture of agricultural stressors. Fathead minnow larvae were maintained at the Elkhorn River Research Station for a 28-d in situ exposure to an agrichemical pulse event.Minnow larvae were sampled after 14 and 28 days to characterize developmental plasticity through …

Water–Soil–Vegetation Dynamic Interactions In Changing Climate, Xixi Wang, Xuefeng Chu, Tingxi Liu, Xiangju Cheng, Rich Whittecar

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Previous studies of land degradation, topsoil erosion, and hydrologic alteration typically focus on these subjects individually, missing important interrelationships among these important aspects of the Earth's system. However, an understanding of water–soil–vegetation dynamic interactions is needed to develop practical and effective solutions to sustain the globe's eco-environment and grassland agriculture, which depends on grasses, legumes, and other fodder or soil-building crops. This special issue is intended to be a platform for a discussion of the relevant scientific findings based on experimental and/or modeling studies. Its 12 peer-reviewed articles present data, novel analysis/modeling approaches, and convincing results of water–soil–vegetation interactions under …