Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

A Physically Constrained Wavelet-Aided Statistical Model (Pcwasm) For Multidecadal Groundwater Dynamics Predictions And Climate Change Evaluation, Fatih Gordu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Long-term groundwater management relies on forecasts of decadal or longer groundwater levels driven by nested scales of variability in climate. Discerning the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on groundwater is also critical for establishing predevelopment benchmark groundwater conditions and developing climate change adaptation strategies to reduce risks and increase resiliency. This research demonstrates the development and successful applications of a new methodology to predict and assess multidecadal groundwater dynamics for understanding long-term effects of climate change and groundwater withdrawals.

A Physically Constrained Wavelet-Aided Statistical Model (PCWASM) is first introduced to analyze and predict monthly aquifer levels on multidecadal time scales. The …

Human Impact On Planetary Temperature And Glacial Volume: Extending A Toy Climate Model To A New Millennium, Samantha Secor, Jennifer Switkes

CODEE Journal

Starting with a toy climate model from the literature, we employ a system of two nonlinear differential equations to model the reciprocal effects of the average temperature and the percentage of glacial volume on Earth. In the literature, this model is used to demonstrate the potential for a stable periodic orbit over a long time span in the form of an attracting limit cycle. In the roughly twenty five years since this model appeared in the literature, the effects of global warming and human-impacted climate change have become much more well known and apparent. We demonstrate modification of initial conditions …

Virtual Training Prepared For The Former Afghanistan Ministry Of Energy And Water—Streamgaging, Fluvial Sediment Sampling, Bathymetry, And Streamflow And Sediment Modeling, Joel T. Groten, Joshua F. Valder, Brenda K. Densmore, Logan W. Neal, Justin Krahulik, Thomas J. Mack

United States Geological Survey: Water Reports and Publications

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) created a virtual training series for the Afghanistan Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW), now known as the National Water Affairs Regulation Authority (NWARA), to provide critical hydrological training as an alternative to an in-person training. The USGS was scheduled to provide in-person surface-water training for NWARA during 2020; however, travel was halted because of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID–19) pandemic. The virtual training consisted of prerecorded and live presentations that were scheduled during 4 weeks in August 2021. However, the training was halted after the second week due to the collapse of the …

Connecticut Embayment Characteristics 2022, Jamie M.P. Vaudrey, James E. O'Donnell

Department of Marine Sciences

Data on Connecticut embayment characteristics. This Excel file is the centerpiece for capturing embayment characteristics as presented in RESPEC (2022), developed specifically for this project. Some parameters such as watershed size, embayment size, and tidal range were pulled from other sources described in Appendix A of RESPEC (2022), but much of the data and indicators in the Excel file were developed for this project. Each parameter included in the spreadsheet is fully defined in Appendix A of RESPEC (2022). All data available in the spreadsheet are provided by embayment in Appendix C of RESPEC (2022), including the results of bathymetric …

A General Pattern Of Trade-Offs Between Ecosystem Resistance And Resilience To Tropical Cyclones, Christopher J. Patrick, John S. Kominoski, William H. Mcdowell, Benjamin Branoff, David Lagomasino, Miguel Leon, Enie Hensel, Marc J. S. Hensel, Bradley A. Strickland, T. Mitchell Aide, Anna Armitage, Marconi Campos-Cerqueira, Victoria M. Congdon, Todd A. Crowl, Donna J. Devlin, Sarah Douglas, Brad E. Erisman, Rusty A. Feagin, Simon J. Geist, Nathan S. Hall, Amber K. Hardison, Michael R. Heithaus, J. Aaron Hogan, J. Derek Hogan, Sean Kinard, Jeremy J. Kiszka, Teng-Chiu Lin, Kaijun Lu, Christopher J. Madden, Paul A. Montagna, Christine S. O'Connell, C. Edward Proffitt, Brandi Kiel Reese, Joseph W. Reustle, Kelly L. Robinson, Scott A. Rush, Rolando O. Santos, Astrid Schnetzer, Delbert L. Smee, Rachel S. Smith, Gregory Starr, Beth A. Stauffer, Lily M. Walker, Carolyn A. Weaver, Michael S. Wetz, Elizabeth R. Whitman, Sara S. Wilson, Jianhong Xue, Xiaoming Zou

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Tropical cyclones drive coastal ecosystem dynamics, and their frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution are predicted to shift with climate change. Patterns of resistance and resilience were synthesized for 4138 ecosystem time series from n = 26 storms occurring between 1985 and 2018 in the Northern Hemisphere to predict how coastal ecosystems will respond to future disturbance regimes. Data were grouped by ecosystems (fresh water, salt water, terrestrial, and wetland) and response categories (biogeochemistry, hydrography, mobile biota, sedentary fauna, and vascular plants). We observed a repeated pattern of trade-offs between resistance and resilience across analyses. These patterns are likely the outcomes …

The Impacts Of Climate Uncertainty On Streamflow In Andes, Antioquia, Colombia, Kristen R. Roberts

Theses and Dissertations

Natural hazards, such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts impact human systems that rely on predictable patterns in the natural elements with which they interact. Skillful prediction of the impacts of climate change on linked, human-natural systems, like surface water resources, can help ensure physical risks within vulnerable communities are mitigated, resource sustainability is maximized, and intersectoral markets continue to contribute to socioeconomic stability. Due to water resources being a primary conduit through which climate uncertainty impacts people, economies, and ecosystems, its study is worthy of investigation; particularly, where those resources are uncertain and demanded by a variety of competitive …

Institute For Global Health And Development : Issue 2 - March 2022, Institute For Global Health And Development

IGHD Newsletters

• Bulletin
• Research and Publications
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• Research Scientists at IGHD
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Sensitivity Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet To +2 °C (Swais 2c), Molly O. Patterson, Richard H. Levy, Denise K. Kulhanek, Tina Van De Flierdt, Huw Horgan, Gavin B. Dunbar, Timothy R. Naish, Jeanine Ash, Alex Pyne, Darcy Mandeno, J. Paul Winberry

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) presently holds enough ice to raise global sea level by 4.3 m if completely melted. The unknown response of the WAIS to future warming remains a significant challenge for numerical models in quantifying predictions of future sea level rise. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of human-induced climate change. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Warming of 2 ^∘C (SWAIS 2C) Project aims to understand past and current drivers and thresholds of WAIS dynamics to improve projections of the rate and size of ice sheet …

Paradigm Versus Paradox On The Prairie: Testing Competing Stream Fish Movement Frameworks Using An Imperiled Great Plains Minnow, Zachary D. Steffensmeier, Maeghen Wedgeworth, Lauren Yancy, Noah Santee, Shannon K. Brewer, Joshuah S. Perkin

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Background: Movement information can improve conservation of imperiled species, yet movement is not quantified for many organisms in need of conservation. Prairie chub (Macrhybopsis australis) is a regionally endemic freshwater fish with unquantified movement ecology and currently considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. The purpose of this study was to test competing ecological theories for prairie chub movement, including the colonization cycle hypothesis (CCH) that posits adults must make upstream movements to compensate for downstream drift at early life stages, and the restricted movement paradigm (RMP) that describes populations as heterogeneous mixes of mostly stationary …

Anthropogenic Impacts On The Glowworm Cave, Waitomo, New Zealand: A Microclimate Management Approach, Chris Hendy, David J. Merritt, Shannon Corkill

International Journal of Speleology

Waitomo Glowworm Cave is a highly visited cave where the highlight is viewing the bioluminescence display of a large colony of glowworms. The visitation levels result in the build-up of anthropogenic CO₂, to the extent that it could cause corrosion of speleothems. The cave experiences chimney-effect ventilation with air flowing either upward or downward through the main cave chambers depending on air density differences between the cave and the outside environment. Lack of airflow leads to CO₂ build-up; however, unrestricted airflow can draw in cool, dry air which is harmful to the glowworms. Consequently, airflow is managed …

Black Carbon And Organic Carbon Dataset Over The Third Pole, Shichang Kang, Yulan Zhang, Pengfei Chen, Junming Guo, Qianggong Zhang, Zhiyuan Cong, Susan Kaspari, Lekhendra Tripathee, Tanguang Gao, Hewen Niu, Xinyue Zhong, Xintong Chen, Zhaofu Hu, Xiaofei Li, Yang Li, Bigyan Neupane, Fangping Yan, Dipesh Rupakheti, Chaman Gul, Wei Zhang, Guangming Wu, Ling Yang, Zhaoqing Wang, Chaoliu Li

Geological Sciences Faculty Scholarship

The Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, also known as the Third Pole, play an important role in the global and regional climate and hydrological cycle. Carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), can directly or indirectly absorb and scatter solar radiation and change the energy balance on the Earth. CAs, along with the other atmospheric pollutants (e.g., mercury), can be frequently transported over long distances into the inland Tibetan Plateau. During the last decades, a coordinated monitoring network and research program named “Atmospheric Pollution and Cryospheric Changes” (APCC) has been gradually set up and continuously operated …

Fluids And Melts At The Magmatic-Hydrothermal Transition, Recorded By Unidirectional Solidification Textures At Saginaw Hill, Arizona, Usa, Wyatt M. Bain, Pilar Lecumberri-Sanchez, Erin E. Marsh, Matthew Steele-Macinnis

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Fluid exsolution and melt evolution at the magmatic-hydrothermal transition are critical processes driving the metal enrichment of porphyry systems. Coeval fluid and melt inclusion assemblages in unidirectional solidification textures (USTs) at Saginaw Hill—a small, porphyry Cu system in southwestern Arizona—record a dynamic and repetitious process of fluid accumulation and release. The cores of quartz crystals throughout the UST bands host coeval silicate melt and brine inclusions but lack vapor-rich inclusions. This could indicate preferential expulsion of vapor and trapping of high-density brine during episodes of fracturing or the direct exsolution of single-phase high-salinity brine from the silicate melt. In contrast, …

Connecting The Dots: Transmission Of Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease From The Marquesas To The Dry Tortugas, Thomas Dobbelaere, Daniel M. Holstein, Erinn M. Muller, Lewis J. Gramer, Lucas Mceachron, Sara D. Williams, Emmanuel Hanert

Faculty Publications

For the last 7 years, Florida's Coral Reef (FCR) has suffered from widespread and severe coral loss caused by stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD). First observed off the coast of Miami-Dade county in 2014, the outbreak has since spread throughout the entirety of FCR and some areas of the Caribbean. However, the propagation of the disease through FCR seemed to slow down when it reached the western end of the Marquesas in August 2020. Despite being present about 30 km (similar to 20 miles) from the Dry Tortugas (DRTO), SCTLD was not reported in this area before May 2021. …

Global And Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios For The United States, National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (Noaa)

State & Federal Reports and Publications

This report and accompanying datasets from the U.S. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force provide 1) sea level rise scenarios to 2150 by decade that include estimates of vertical land motion and 2) a set of extreme water level probabilities for various heights along the U.S. coastline. These data are available at 1-degree grids along the U.S. coastline and downscaled specifically at NOAA tide-gauge locations. Estimates of flood exposure are assessed using contemporary U.S. coastal flood-severity thresholds for current conditions (e.g., sea levels and infrastructure footprint) and for the next 30 years (out …

Belowground Mechanism Reveals Climate Change Impacts On Invasive Clonal Plant Establishment, Surendra Bam, Jacqueline P. Ott, Jack L. Butler, Lan Xu

Natural Resource Management Faculty Publications

Climate change and disturbance can alter invasion success of clonal plants by differentially affecting the clonal traits influencing their establishment as young plants. Clonal traits related to the vegetative reproduction of native Pascopyrum smithii and non-native Bromus inermis grass seedlings were evaluated under altered precipitation frequencies and a single grazing event. Pascopyrum smithii maintained similar vegetative reproduction under three simulated precipitation frequencies whereas B. inermis vegetative reproduction declined as precipitation became more intermittent. Vegetative reproduction of the non-native B. inermis was greater than the native P. smithii under all simulated precipitation frequencies except the most intermittent scenario. A single grazing …

Modeling Vapor Transfer In Soil Water And Heat Simulations: A Modularized, Partially-Coupled Approach, Zhuangji Wang, Dennis Timlin, David Fleisher, Wenguang Sun, Sahila Beegum, Sanai Li, Ya Chen, Vandimalla R. Reddy, Katherine Tully, Robert Horton

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Coupled water and heat transfer models are widely used to analyze soil water content and temperature dynamics, evaluate agricultural management systems, and support crop growth modelling. In relatively dry soils, vapor transfer, rather than liquid water flux, becomes the main pathway for water redistribution. However, in some modularized soil simulators, e.g., 2DSOIL (Timlin et al., 1996), vapor transfer is not included, which may induce errors in soil water and heat modelling. Directly embedding vapor transfer into existing water and heat transfer modules may violate the modularized architecture of those simulators. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to design a …

A Call For The Library Community To Deploy Best Practices Toward A Database For Biocultural Knowledge Relating To Climate Change, Martha B. Lerski

Publications and Research

Abstract

Purpose – In this paper, a call to the library and information science community to support documentation and conservation of cultural and biocultural heritage has been presented.

Design/methodology/approach – Based in existing Literature, this proposal is generative and descriptive— rather than prescriptive—regarding precisely how libraries should collaborate to employ technical and ethical best practices to provide access to vital data, research and cultural narratives relating to climate.

Findings – COVID-19 and climate destruction signal urgent global challenges. Library best practices are positioned to respond to climate change. Literature indicates how libraries preserve, share and cross-link cultural and scientific knowledge. …

Main-Stem Seepage And Base-Flow Recession Time Constants In The Niobrara National Scenic River Basin, Nebraska, 2016–18, Kellan R. Strauch, Philip J. Soeksen

United States Geological Survey: Water Reports and Publications

The Niobrara River of northern Nebraska is a valuable water resource that sustains irrigated agriculture and recreation, as well as a diverse ecosystem. Large-quantity withdrawals from the source aquifer system have the potential to reduce the flow into the river and to adversely affect the free-flowing condition of the Niobrara National Scenic River (NSR). Therefore, to understand the magnitude and characteristics of those flows, the United States Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Park Service, began a study to quantify seepage gains/losses along the eastern half of the Niobrara NSR and to create a map characterizing the base-flow …

Coastal Paleogeography Of The Pacific Northwest, Usa, For The Last 12,000 Years Accounting For Three-Dimensional Earth Structure, Jorie Clark, Jay R. Alder, Marisa Borreggine, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Konstantin Latychev

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Predictive modeling of submerged archaeological sites requires accurate sea-level predictions in order to reconstruct coastal paleogeography and associated geographic features that may have influenced the locations of occupation sites such as rivers and embayments. Earlier reconstructions of the paleogeography of parts of the western U.S. coast used an assumption of eustatic sea level, but this neglects the large spatial variations in relative sea level (RSL) associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and tectonics. Subsequent work using a one-dimensional (1-D) solid Earth model showed that reconstructions that accounted for GIA result in significant differences from those based on eustatic sea level. …

Coastal Paleogeography Of The Pacific Northwest, Usa, For The Last 12,000 Years Accounting For Three-Dimensional Earth Structure, Jorie Clark, Jay R. Alder, Marisa Borreggine, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Konstantin Latychev

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Predictive modeling of submerged archaeological sites requires accurate sea-level predictions in order to reconstruct coastal paleogeography and associated geographic features that may have influenced the locations of occupation sites such as rivers and embayments. Earlier reconstructions of the paleogeography of parts of the western U.S. coast used an assumption of eustatic sea level, but this neglects the large spatial variations in relative sea level (RSL) associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and tectonics. Subsequent work using a one-dimensional (1-D) solid Earth model showed that reconstructions that accounted for GIA result in significant differences from those based on eustatic sea level. …

Arkansas Bulletin Of Water Research - Issue 2021-2022, Erin Grantz, Lillie Haddock, Brian E. Haggard

Arkansas Bulletin of Water Research

The Arkansas Bulletin of Water Research (Bulletin) is a publication of the Arkansas Water Resources Center (AWRC). We publish the Bulletin to communicate the major findings of research funded by the Water Resources Research Act Section 104(b) in Arkansas. This research is relevant to Arkansas water stakeholders, and the Bulletin provides an easily searchable and aesthetically engaging access option.

This is the fourth publication of the Bulletin. This issue contains final reports from research projects that were funded by the 104(b) program in fiscal years 2019 and 2020. The articles in this issue can be cited as an AWRC publication. …

A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory For Nebraska: Livestock And Coal Loom Large, Eric R. Holley, Adam Liska

Adam Liska Papers

Mitigation of climate change requires the systematic identification and cataloging of emissions sources at city, state, and national levels. In this study, an inventory of annual greenhouse gas emissions from the state of Nebraska was created based on industry data, and emissions inventories were completed each year from 1990 to 2016. Nebraska’s net emissions were found to increase from 56.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMtCO₂e) in 1990 to 87.4 MMtCO₂e in 2016. Agriculture was found to be the sector with the most emissions (36 MMtCO₂e) followed by electricity generation (21 MMtCO …

Temperature Trends In The Northeastern United States From 1950-2018, Emanuel Eagle

Environmental Studies Honors Papers

No abstract provided.

Daily Meteorological Report, Cercom, Molloy University, John Tanacredi Ph.D., Kyle F. Maurelli

CERCOM Reports

Meteorological data is collected daily at CERCOM and is submitted to the National Weather Service (NWS), in Upton NY at the Brookhaven National Laboratories. Air Temperature, wind speed and direction, pH of precipitation, rain gauge, barometer pressure, cloud cover and estimated altitude by type, are data sets compiled and submitted to the NWS daily. CERCOM’s Co-Op site is the only continuous operating facility on Great South Bay.

Ferrihydrite Enrichment In The Rhizosphere Of Unsaturated Soil Improves Nutrient Retention While Limiting Arsenic And Uranium Plant Uptake, Arindam Malakar, Daniel D. Snow, Michael Kaiser, Jordan Shields, Bijesh Maharjan, Harkamal Walia, Daran Rudnick, Chittaranjan Ray

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Improvement of nutrient use efficiency and limiting trace elements such as arsenic and uranium bioavailability is critical for sustainable agriculture and food safety. Arsenic and uranium possess different properties and mobility in soils, which complicates the effort to reduce their uptake by plants. Here, we postulate that unsaturated soil amended with ferrihydrite nanominerals leads to improved nutrient retention and helps reduce uptake of these geogenic contaminants. Unsaturated soil is primarily oxic and can provide a stable environment for ferrihydrite nanominerals. To demonstrate the utility of ferrihydrite soil amendment, maize was grown in an unsaturated agricultural soil that is known to …

Great South Bay, Long Island, New York Summer Water Quality Monitoring Program, Cercom, Molloy University, John Tanacredi Ph.D., Kyle F. Maurelli

CERCOM Reports

The Center for Environmental Research and Coastal Oceans Monitoring (CERCOM) visits 11 locations in the Great South Bay from Memorial Day – Labor Day to monitor dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, salinity, clarity and temperature. Students are trained to assist in CERCOM’s water quality data collection by research assistant Mr. Kyle Maurelli. This monitoring program has been conducted for the past 17 years. These parameters are critical in determining long term water quality conditions in Long Island estuaries

Great South Bay, Long Island, New York Summer Phytoplankton Identification & Monitoring Program, Cercom, Molloy University, John Tanacredi Ph.D., Kyle F. Maurelli

CERCOM Reports

Phytoplankton Collection Methodologies: 80 micron Plankton Tow Net with sample bottle attachment

Phytoplankton Protocol: 1.Gather Samples 2.Make one slide per sample 3.View slides using microscope connected with computer 4. Record findings using “ Row # “ and “ Column letter “ 5. Record using “ Tallies “ per species found within sample 6. Capture anything interesting “ Take Picture “ 7.Duplicate pictures taken 8.Make sure measurement of species found is taken 9. Email Jennifer Maucher at [email protected] , include pictures, questions and names of the species you “guess” you found.

Soil Resilience And Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi: How Fungi Can Inform Climate Change Mitigation And Adaptation In Maya Milpa Management, Courtney Mathers

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In Mexico’s state of Yucatán, climate change impacts like prolonged and less predictable dry season length are manifesting as threats to agricultural production and food security. Nearly two thirds of Yucatán’s population is indigenous, many of whom live in rural communities that rely on rainfed subsistence agriculture (INEGI 2015). Ensuring sufficient food production in the face of climate change relies on the quality of agricultural soils. With both mismanagement of agricultural soils and climate change posing as threats to food production in Mexico, soil management practices that increase a soil quality should be identified and promoted. The primary objective of …

Island Stories: Mapping The (Im)Mobility Trends Of Slow Onset Environmental Processes In Three Island Groups Of The Philippines, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Noralene Uy

Environmental Science Faculty Publications

There is an immediate lack of people-centred empirical evidence investigating how slow onset events influence human (im)mobility across the globe. This represents an important knowledge gap that makes it difficult for climate policy to safeguard vulnerable populations (whether on the move or left behind). In this study, 48 qualitative focus group discussions in the Philippines elaborated around people’s (im)mobility pathways in the context of slow onset events. The selected collective storytelling approach effectively mapped out the (im)mobility trends of 12 different origin- and destination locations involving the perceptions of 414 women and men across six provinces on Luzon, the Visayas …

Greater Loss And Fragmentation Of Savannas Than Forests Over The Last Three Decades In Yunnan Province, China, R Sedricke Lapuz, Angelica Kristina M. Jaojoco, Sheryl Rose C. Reyes, Jose Don T. De Alban, Kyle W. Tomlinson

SOSE Affiliate: Manila Observatory

Yunnan Province, southwest China, has a monsoonal climate suitable for a mix of fire-driven savannas and fire-averse forests as alternate stable states, and has vast areas with savanna physiognomy. Presently, savannas are only formally recognised in the dry valleys of the region, and a no-fire policy has been enforced nationwide since the 1980s. Misidentification of savannas as forests may have contributed to their low protection level and fire-suppression may be contributing to vegetation change towards forest states through woody encroachment. Here, we present an analysis of vegetation and land-use change in Yunnan for years 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2016 by …