Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons^™

Probit Models For Capture-Recapture Data Subject To Imperfect Detection, Individual Heterogeneity And Misidentification, Brett T. Mcclinktock, Larissa L. Bailey, Brian P. Dreher, William A. Link

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extend standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the …

Testing Metapopulation Concepts: Effects Of Patch Characteristics And Neighborhood Occupancy On The Dynamics Of An Endangered Lagomorph, Mitchell J. Eaton, Phillip T. Hughes, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model …

Probit Models For Capture-Recapture Data Subject To Imperfect Detection, Individual Heterogeneity And Misidentification1, Brett T. Mcclintock, Larissa L. Bailey, Brian P. Dreher, William A. Link

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

As noninvasive sampling techniques for animal populations have become more popular, there has been increasing interest in the development of capture-recapture models that can accommodate both imperfect detection and misidentification of individuals (e.g., due to genotyping error). However, current methods do not allow for individual variation in parameters, such as detection or survival probability. Here we develop misidentification models for capture-recapture data that can simultaneously account for temporal variation, behavioral effects and individual heterogeneity in parameters. To facilitate Bayesian inference using our approach, we extended standard probit regression techniques to latent multinomial models where the dimension and zeros of the …

Loess Records, Daniel R. Muhs, Stephen R. Cattle, Onn Crouvi, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Jimin Sun, Marcelo A. Zárate

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Loess is aeolian sediment, dominated by silt-sized particles, that is identifiable in the field as a distinct sedimentary body. It covers a significant portion of the land surface of the Earth and as such constitutes one of the most important archives of long-term dust deposition. Large tracts of loess cover Europe, Asia, South America, and North America, and smaller loess bodies are found covering parts of Africa, the Middle East, New Zealand, and Australia. Loess thickness, particle size, and carbonate content decrease downwind from sources, trends that are powerful tools for reconstructing paleowinds. Many loess sections consist of relatively thick …

Evidence Of Repeated Wildfires Prior To Human Occupation On San Nicolas Island, California, Jeffrey S. Pigati, John P. Mcgeehin, Gary L. Skipp, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding how early humans on the California Channel Islands might have changed local fire regimes requires a baseline knowledge of the frequency of natural wildfires on the islands prior to human occupation. A sedimentary sequence that was recently discovered in a small canyon on San Nicolas Island contains evidence of at least 24 burn events that date to between ~37 and 25 ka (thousands of calibrated ¹⁴C years before present), well before humans entered North America. The evidence includes abundant macroscopic charcoal, blackened sediments, and discrete packages of oxidized, reddish-brown sediments that are similar in appearance to sedimentary features …

Cosee Ocean Inquiry Group Report: Opportunities For Creating Lifelong Ocean Science Literacy, Paul Boyle, Vince Breslin, Lisa Craig Brisson, John Fraser, Alan J. Friedman, Katie Gardner, Sarah Schoedinger, Jerry Schubel, Steve Uzzo, Steven Yalowitz

School for the Environment General Publications

This Inquiry Group Report for the Centers for Ocean Sciences Education Excellence Ocean Communities in Education And Social Networks (COSEE OCEAN) provides a fresh look at how broader ocean science literacy can be developed, especially through less-recognized channels such as opportunistic learning, the private and “third” sectors, and the enormously varied activities under the heading of informal science education. The 10 authors of this report (see Contributors section) have been working together for two years to find and review a range of issues and resources for current and potential ocean science literacy providers, both professional and volunteer.

Several chapters provide …

Unintended Outcomes Of Farmers' Adaptation To Climate Variability: Deforestation And Conservation In Calakmul And Maya Biosphere Reserves, Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano

Dartmouth Scholarship

Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers’ welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social–ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers’ climate adaptation contributes to deforestation or forest conservation. The paper draws on interviews with 353 farmers from 46 communities in Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in Mexico and Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala. Farmers in the area of study have implemented adaptation …

Assessing Optimal Set Of Implemental Physical Parameterization Schemes In A Multi-Physics Land Surface Model Using Genetic Algorithm, S. Hong, X. Yu, S. K. Park, Y.-S. Choi, Boksoon Myoung

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Optimization of land surface models has been challenging due to the model complexity and uncertainty. In this study, we performed scheme-based model optimizations by designing a framework for coupling "the micro-genetic algorithm" (micro-GA) and "the Noah land surface model with multiple physics options" (Noah-MP). Micro-GA controls the scheme selections among eight different land surface parameterization categories, each containing 2–4 schemes, in Noah-MP in order to extract the optimal scheme combination that achieves the best skill score. This coupling framework was successfully applied to the optimizations of evapotranspiration and runoff simulations in terms of surface water balance over the Han River …

Effects Of Crop Residue Burning On Aerosol Properties, Plume Characteristics, And Long-Range Transport Over Northern India, D. G. Kaskaoutis, S. Kumar, D. Sharma, Ramesh P. Singh, S. K. Kharol, M. Sharma, A. K. Singh, Atinderpal Singh, D. Singh

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Aerosol emissions from biomass burning are of specific interest over the globe due to their strong radiative impacts and climate implications. The present study examines the impact of paddy crop residue burning over northern India during the postmonsoon (October-November) season of 2012 on modification of aerosol properties, as well as the long-range transport of smoke plumes, altitude characteristics, and affected areas via the synergy of ground-based measurements and satellite observations. During this period, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images show a thick smoke/hazy aerosol layer below 2-2.5 km in the atmosphere covering nearly the whole Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). The air …

Numerical Simulation Of “An American Haboob”, A. Vukovic, M. Vujadinovic, G. Pejanovic, J. Andric, M. J. Kumjian, V. Djurdjevic, M. Dacic, Anup K. Prasad, Hesham El-Askary, B. C. Paris, S. Petkovic, W. Sprigg, S. Nickovic

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

A dust storm of fearful proportions hit Phoenix in the early evening hours of 5 July 2011. This storm, an American haboob, was predicted hours in advance because numerical, land–atmosphere modeling, computing power and remote sensing of dust events have improved greatly over the past decade. High-resolution numerical models are required for accurate simulation of the small scales of the haboob process, with high velocity surface winds produced by strong convection and severe downbursts. Dust productive areas in this region consist mainly of agricultural fields, with soil surfaces disturbed by plowing and tracks of land in the high Sonoran Desert …

Wetlands And Greenhouse Gas Fluxes: Causes And Effects Of Climate Change – A Meta-Analysis, Robert E. Ventura

Pomona Senior Theses

Climate change is one of the largest problems facing this generation. Anthropogenically caused increases of greenhouse gas emissions is a significant culprit to this problem. Although the obvious problems such as cars, industry, and urbanism garnish a significant amount of the criticism, natural sources such as wetlands are also beginning to contribute to this issue. This is becoming increasingly significant as wetlands shift from being sinks of greenhouse gases to becoming sources as various anthropogenic impacts, including global warming itself, begin to affect the health of the wetlands. The aim of this project is to look at four common types …

Osmb Final Report: Task 3. Containment Strategies For Eurasian Watermilfoil Infested Central Or Lakes, Vanessa Morgan, Mark Sytsma

Center for Lakes and Reservoirs Publications and Presentations

In recent years, public awareness of aquatic invasive species (AIS) has increased considerably in Oregon and elsewhere in the western U.S.. News articles, boat inspection stations and AIS permit programs have drawn attention to the threat of aquatic invasive species, especially animals like zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), quagga mussels (Dreissena bugensis), and New Zealand mudsnails (Potamopyrgus antipodarum). However, invasive aquatic plants are also capable of causing severe impacts and may similarly be transferred between waterbodies on boats, trailers or other equipment. Heavy infestations can hinder recreational use by motorized and non-motorized boats, snag fishing lines, threaten the safety of swimmers …

Osmb Final Report: Task 6. Tenmile Lake Boat Wash Effectiveness Monitoring, Samuel Cimino, Angela L. Strecker

Center for Lakes and Reservoirs Publications and Presentations

Public awareness of aquatic invasive species and proper boat cleaning procedures may prove to be beneficial in reducing the transport and establishment of aquatic invasive species like New Zealand mud snails and zebra and quagga mussels as well as hydrilla and Eurasian watermilfoil. The primary objectives of this research project were to observe the use and determine the efficacy of a public boat wash station as well as increase the public’s awareness of proper boat cleaning procedures and aquatic invasive species. The Tenmile Lakes Basin Partnership, Oregon State Marine Board, and the United States Forest Service (USFS) have undertaken an …

Developing Rating Curves In A Small Iowa Watershed To Evaluate Nutrient Loading In Streams, Jennifer Mary Shepeck

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

Dry Run Creek, a tributary to the Cedar River in northeast Iowa, is a watershed under high pressure from the surrounding region. With its headwaters located in farm fields and urban drainage ditches, it is subject to flash flooding and erosion and is on the DNR’s list of impaired waters. Dry Run Creek is similar to other small watersheds across eastern Iowa. As tributaries to the larger rivers that eventually flow into the Mississippi River and then to the Gulf of Mexico, they are significant contributors to the nutrient loading causing the hypoxia in the Gulf. The purpose of this …

Scenario Development And Analysis Of Freshwater Ecosystem Services Under Land Cover And Climate Change In The Tualatin And Yamhill River Basins, Oregon, Robert Wesley Hoyer

Dissertations and Theses

Humans make decisions within ecosystems to enhance their well-being, but choices can lead to unintended consequences. The ecosystem services (ES) approach supports decision-making that considers all environmental goods and services. Many challenges remain in the implementation of the ES approach like how specific ES vary through space and time. We address this research problem using the Tualatin and Yamhill river basins in northwestern Oregon as a study area. Freshwater ES are quantified and mapped with the spatially-explicit ES modeling tool, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). In chapter II, we develop a simple urban land cover change modeling …

Development And Application Of A Gis-Based Long Island Sound Eelgrass Habitat Suitability Index Model, Jamie M.P. Vaudrey, Justin Eddings, Christopher Pickerell, Lorne Brousseau, Charles Yarish

Department of Marine Sciences

The primary objectives of the Eelgrass Habitat Suitability Index Model (EHSI Model) are to assist in the evaluation of sites being considered for eelgrass restoration efforts in the Long Island Sound (LIS) area and to identify areas where water quality issues reduce or eliminate the potential for natural eelgrass colonization. To achieve this goal, geospatial processing of data available from the Long Island Sound area was conducted using ArcGIS v10.0 including the 3D Analyst and Spatial Analyst extensions. The result is a series of maps presented in this report and a GIS-based model available for users to interact with the …

Water Quality Monitoring For Selected Priority Watersheds In Arkansas, Upper Saline, Poteau And Strawberry Rivers, L. B. Massey, J.A. Mccarty, M.D. Matlock, A.N. Sharpley, B.E. Haggard

Arkansas Water Resources Center Technical Reports

Arkansas Natural Resources Commission has identified three priority hydrological unit code (HUC) 8 watersheds, the Upper Saline (HUC 08040203), Poteau (HUC 11110105), and Strawberry Watersheds (HUC 11010012). SWAT models have been developed to estimate nutrient and sediment loads in these watersheds where limited water‐quality data was available. The purpose of this project was to collect additional water samples across these HUC 8 watersheds to better understand how water quality changes across subwatershed with differing land use mixes, as well as estimate nitrate‐nitrogen (NO3‐N), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) loads. Water samples were collected at twenty sites near …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2013, Natalie A. Umphlett

High Plains Regional Climate Center: Staff Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Soil Moisture

September Flooding in Colorado

Early October Blizzard

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

Mass Bays Resource Inventory: Summary And Findings From The Review Of Plans And Assessments, Urban Harbors Institute, University Of Massachusetts Boston

Urban Harbors Institute Publications

The Massachusetts Bays Program (MBP) contracted with the Urban Harbors Institute (UHI) of the University of Massachusetts Boston to conduct a review of papers, presentations, reports, and other relevant material produced from 1996 (the last CCMP) to present, that might inform the MBP’s update of their Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (CCMP). The review focused on five topics identified as priority topics by the MBP: water quality, invasive species, climate change/vulnerability, continuity of estuarine habitat, and estuarine habitat protection in the geographic region of the Mass Bays Program, particularly the 47 nearshore estuaries and embayments identified in the 2012 MBP …

Reservoir Management Techniques To Enhance Biological Productivity And Protect Water Quality, Ben Alan Thompson

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Three reservoirs of similar size, watershed land use, and qualitative characteristics in northwest Arkansas, USA were selected to compare the effects of chemical fertilization and pulsed artificial-upwelling on whole-lake productivity, specifically primary production and phytoplankton biomass. Numerous water quality parameters were quantified over a two year period (2011-13) with the goal of understanding how each management technique would stimulate productivity. This experiment was the first step towards a larger goal to ultimately enhance sport fish production. The first year of monitoring occurred in 2011 and served as a control year for the three lakes. Treatments were initiated in two of …

Assessing Growth Response To Climate Controls In A Great Basin Artemisia Tridentata Plant Community, Lorenzo F. Apodaca

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

An assessment of the growth response of key vegetative species to climatic variability is vital to identifying possible local impacts on ecosystems faced with imminent climate change. With current climate projections in Nevada predicting a shift to an even more arid climate with greater year-to-year variability, the imperative exists to identify the effects of specific climatic controls on plant growth and to research methods to assess large-scale vegetative changes, especially in more remote areas where readily available data sets may be lacking. This study utilized annual growth ring indices constructed from big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentatassp.tridentata) stems collected in Spring Valley, …

Sfa Weather Station-November 2013, Arthur Temple College Of Forestry And Agriculture, Stephen F. Austin State University

Weather Station Data

No abstract provided.

Assessing The Performance Of A Northern Gulf Of Mexico Tidal Model Using Satellite Imagery, Stephen C. Medeiros, Scott C. Hagen, Naira Chaouch, Jesse Feyen, Marouane Temimi, John F. Weishampel, Yuji Funakoshi, Reza Khanbilvardi

Publications and Research

Tidal harmonic analysis simulations along with simulations spanning four specific historical time periods in 2003 and 2004 were conducted to test the performance of a northern Gulf of Mexico tidal model. A recently developed method for detecting inundated areas based on integrated remotely sensed data (i.e., Radarsat-1, aerial imagery, LiDAR, Landsat 7 ETM+) was applied to assess the performance of the tidal model. The analysis demonstrates the applicability of the method and its agreement with traditional performance assessment techniques such as harmonic resynthesis and water level time series analysis. Based on the flooded/non-flooded coastal areas estimated by the integrated remotely …

The Tornado Warning Process: A Review Of Current Research, Challenges, And Opportunities, Jerry Brotzge, William Donner

Sociology Faculty Publications

With the unusually violent tornado season of 2011, there has been a renewed national interest, through such programs as NOAA's Weather Ready Nation initiative, to reevaluate and improve our tornado warning process. This literature review provides an interdisciplinary, end-to-end examination of the tornado warning process. Following the steps outlined by the Integrated Warning System, current research in tornado prediction and detection, the warning decision process, warning dissemination, and public response are reviewed, and some of the major challenges for improving each stage are highlighted. The progress and challenges in multi-day to short-term tornado prediction are discussed, followed by an examination …

Examining The Relationship Between Drought Development And Rapid Changes In The Evaporative Stress Index, Jason A. Otkin, Martha C. Anderson, Christopher Hain, Mark D. Svoboda

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

In this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction …

Extratropical Cyclones In A Changing Climate Regime, Brian Freitag

Von Braun Symposium Student Posters

No abstract provided.

Remote Sensing Of Aquatic Vegetation And Agricultural Activity In Lake Guntersville, Casey Calamaio, Kel Markert

Von Braun Symposium Student Posters

No abstract provided.

Environmental Factors Influencing Diatom Communities In Antarctic Cryoconite Holes, Lee F. Stanish, Elizabeth A. Bagshaw, Diane M. Mcknight, Andrew G. Fountain, Martyn Tranter

Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations

Cryoconite holes are ice-bound habitats that can act as refuges for aquatic and terrestrial microorganisms on glacier surfaces. In the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, these holes are often capped by an ice lid that prevents the exchange of material and gases with the surrounding atmosphere and aquatic environment. Diatoms have been documented in cryoconite holes, and recent findings suggest that these habitats may harbour a distinctive diatom flora compared to the surrounding aquatic environments. In this study, we examined diatom community composition in cryoconite holes and environmental correlates across three glaciers in Taylor Valley, Antarctica. The diatom communities were …

Effects Of Runoff Sensitivity And Catchment Characteristics On Regional Actual Evapotranspiration Trends In The Conterminous Us, Il-Won Jung, Heejun Chang, John Risley

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

An understanding of the role of hydro-climatic and geographic regimes on regional actual evapotranspiration (AET) change is essential to improving our knowledge on predicting water availability in a changing climate. This study investigates the relationship between AET change for a 60 year period (1951–2010) and the runoff sensitivity in 255 undisturbed catchments over the US. The runoff sensitivity to climate change is simply defined as the relative magnitude between runoff and precipitation changes with time. Runoff sensitivity can readily explain the conflicting directions of AET changes under similar precipitation change. Under increasing precipitation, AET decreases when runoff is increasing more …

Moving Forward: Next Steps For Confronting Increased Flood Risks, Molly Mitchell

October 2, 2013: Quantifying Risks and Moving Forward

No abstract provided.